Are there any first round prospects you really don't want?

[DropKickFlutie]

Fields and Lawrence, QBwise. I just don't trust big-time college programs to produce NFL championship caliber QBs. They spent too much time not having to really compete because their schools schedule chumps to make the boosters happy and to boost their rankings. They have to pass the Montana/Brady test if they're from a big school. Did they have to overcome anything? Did they always have to fight for what they got? Montana at ND and Brady at Michigan were not presumptive starters. Montana was third on the depth chart even going into his junior year. Brady was sixth (I think). Neither were drafted highly. They constantly worked to prove people wrong about them.

That is going to be missing from Fields and Lawrence.

What about Fields sitting behind Fromm ? Like Burrow leaving OSU?

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

Wr Bateman - we need avoid like the plague. Harry part 2.

fields - normally I would say because he is a one read qb aka Dwayne Haskins, but I am going to change it up. we need to avoid fields like the plague. No anticipation on his throws,

Bateman? Harry? No way!!!! His highlight tape is a lot better than harry.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Bateman? Harry? No way!!!! His highlight tape is a lot better than harry.

They're nothing alike. I almost feel bad for that poster. He needs another hobby.

 

[upstater1]

How is a team reaching have to do with anything you are saying? The Vikings reached for Ponder so the Patriots suck at drafting QBs? Or the Pats should trade up and get a QB because ten years ago the Viking reached for Ponder? Not to be snarky, but one or even a handful of reaches don't mean anything.

How about Jake Locker? He wasn't a reach. Most mock drafts in 2011 had him going around where he was drafted and he was a far bigger bust than Ponder. How about Blaine Gabbert?

If you look at the 2011 draft, the third best QB to come out of that draft was arguably Tyrod Taylor and he went in the 6th round and he is a mediocre QB. I guess you could go with Kaepernick who was drafted in the fourth round, but he was a flash in the pan. And Andy Dalton , the second best QB in that draft, went in the second round.

The 2011 draft goes against your argument. There were four QBs drafted in the first round that year and only one was any good. Three of them were awful.

Your post is all over the place. I was specifically responding to someone who said the Patriots should draft Mills at 15 if they believe he is going to be a top starter.

I was responding to that.

Your other points are totally irrelevant to this.

I was asking for just one example of a team grabbing a guy who all other teams expected to go much later, who then succeeded. There are bust QBs every year. No one is talking about that. I'm talking about guys who the analysts have pegged as 3rd rounders being taken in the first. Ponder is an example of that.

 

[sean10mm]

Outside of a very silly punter/kicker pick not really. I have kind of given up on pre draft analysis, so many alleged "safe picks" bit the big one, while picks that got slagged turned out good, that I can't take any of it seriously.

 

[Steve102]

No starters except for Garoppolo.

Matt Cassel started 81 games in his career. Pretty good for a 7th round pick. Brissett has started 49, and there's people on this board who would advocate putting him on this roster now. None of the guys you mention were drafted as starters in mind, save for Jimmy. I don't see it, sorry.

 

[upstater1]

Matt Cassel started 81 games in his career. Pretty good for a 7th round pick. Brissett has started 49, and there's people on this board who would advocate putting him on this roster now. None of the guys you mention were drafted as starters in mind, save for Jimmy. I don't see it, sorry.

I'm not getting on the Patriots for a 7th round pick who became a backup after 2 good years as a starter. But 2 good years as a starter is something many accomplish. Many of the people we've been calling busts had 2 good years. That's not a bad evaluation. Brissett is not a starter, even though he has started. He has only been there as a backup and as a placeholder.

I'm talking about all the guys we've taken over the years. We've evaluated guys highly, as 1st round picks. And when they've dropped, we've taken them. Despite the fact that we had absolutely no need for a QB that high. But we've taken them because of their first round grade. This, at least, is what we were told through the grapevine by people connected to the Patriots. We were told the Patriots saw value in a QB with a first round grade still being there in the 3rd round. There's always a possibility they can flip a guy like that.

The point is, the Patriots have not been successful with this approach when they go against the league consensus, and the league consensus on the guys we have taken has always been that they're not that good. Do our scouts and evaluators know more about the QBs than the rest of the league? Apparently not.

So what gives us the confidence to take someone in the first round who everyone else has going in the 3rd?

 

[Steve102]

I'm not getting on the Patriots for a 7th round pick who became a backup after 2 good years as a starter. But 2 good years as a starter is something many accomplish. Many of the people we've been calling busts had 2 good years. That's not a bad evaluation. Brissett is not a starter, even though he has started. He has only been there as a backup and as a placeholder.

I'm talking about all the guys we've taken over the years. We've evaluated guys highly, as 1st round picks. And when they've dropped, we've taken them. Despite the fact that we had absolutely no need for a QB that high. But we've taken them because of their first round grade. This, at least, is what we were told through the grapevine by people connected to the Patriots. We were told the Patriots saw value in a QB with a first round grade still being there in the 3rd round. There's always a possibility they can flip a guy like that.

The point is, the Patriots have not been successful with this approach when they go against the league consensus, and the league consensus on the guys we have taken has always been that they're not that good. Do our scouts and evaluators know more about the QBs than the rest of the league? Apparently not.

So what gives us the confidence to take someone in the first round who everyone else has going in the 3rd?

So you're getting on the Pats for Mallet?

I just don't see it. They've drafted guys to be backups and they've been backups.

 

[BTTA]

I'm not getting on the Patriots for a 7th round pick who became a backup after 2 good years as a starter. But 2 good years as a starter is something many accomplish. Many of the people we've been calling busts had 2 good years. That's not a bad evaluation. Brissett is not a starter, even though he has started. He has only been there as a backup and as a placeholder.

I'm talking about all the guys we've taken over the years. We've evaluated guys highly, as 1st round picks. And when they've dropped, we've taken them. Despite the fact that we had absolutely no need for a QB that high. But we've taken them because of their first round grade. This, at least, is what we were told through the grapevine by people connected to the Patriots. We were told the Patriots saw value in a QB with a first round grade still being there in the 3rd round. There's always a possibility they can flip a guy like that.

The point is, the Patriots have not been successful with this approach when they go against the league consensus, and the league consensus on the guys we have taken has always been that they're not that good. Do our scouts and evaluators know more about the QBs than the rest of the league? Apparently not.

So what gives us the confidence to take someone in the first round who everyone else has going in the 3rd?

Here's a key difference in how fans understand the NFL. I think the statement above is just wrong about the roughly 240 players that are drafted every year. Very few of them become starters who put together two good years (better than average NFL players).

 

[farn]

I guess I'd echo a few posters and say Asante Jr. I liked the father as a player - much more than most on here - but to have to debate the whole Sr vs BB thing over and over would be exhausting...

 

[Rob0729]

Your post is all over the place. I was specifically responding to someone who said the Patriots should draft Mills at 15 if they believe he is going to be a top starter.

I was responding to that.

Your other points are totally irrelevant to this.

I was asking for just one example of a team grabbing a guy who all other teams expected to go much later, who then succeeded. There are bust QBs every year. No one is talking about that. I'm talking about guys who the analysts have pegged as 3rd rounders being taken in the first. Ponder is an example of that.

I never responded to anyone taking Mills at 15. I am not advocating for drafting Mills at 15.

I responded to you stating that the Pats have a horrible record of drafting QBs. I was pointing out how wrong you were.

I am not weighing in on anything else. I was addressing one specific thing.

 

[Rob0729]

I'm not getting on the Patriots for a 7th round pick who became a backup after 2 good years as a starter. But 2 good years as a starter is something many accomplish. Many of the people we've been calling busts had 2 good years. That's not a bad evaluation. Brissett is not a starter, even though he has started. He has only been there as a backup and as a placeholder.

I'm talking about all the guys we've taken over the years. We've evaluated guys highly, as 1st round picks. And when they've dropped, we've taken them. Despite the fact that we had absolutely no need for a QB that high. But we've taken them because of their first round grade. This, at least, is what we were told through the grapevine by people connected to the Patriots. We were told the Patriots saw value in a QB with a first round grade still being there in the 3rd round. There's always a possibility they can flip a guy like that.

The point is, the Patriots have not been successful with this approach when they go against the league consensus, and the league consensus on the guys we have taken has always been that they're not that good. Do our scouts and evaluators know more about the QBs than the rest of the league? Apparently not.

So what gives us the confidence to take someone in the first round who everyone else has going in the 3rd?

If you only have two good years as a starter at QB as a first round pick, you are considered a bust. You have two years as a starter as a seventh round pick as a QB and you are in the running for one of the best seventh round picks in a franchise's history. Try to have a little context.

And Indy made Brissett a starter and gave him starter money. He might not have been in their long term plans as a starter, but that ain't bad for a third round pick at QB. Most third round QBs never see the field during any meaningful gameplay in the NFL. If a third rounder plays at all, it is usually after they pull the starters after a blow out. There are some exceptions, but that is the norm.

 

[Deus Irae]

So you're getting on the Pats for Mallet?

I just don't see it. They've drafted guys to be backups and they've been backups.

To be fair, the whole world should get on the Pats for Mallet.

 

[upstater1]

If you only have two good years as a starter at QB as a first round pick, you are considered a bust. You have two years as a starter as a seventh round pick as a QB and you are in the running for one of the best seventh round picks in a franchise's history. Try to have a little context.

And Indy made Brissett a starter and gave him starter money. He might not have been in their long term plans as a starter, but that ain't bad for a third round pick at QB. Most third round QBs never see the field during any meaningful gameplay in the NFL. If a third rounder plays at all, it is usually after they pull the starters after a blow out. There are some exceptions, but that is the norm.

Should I keep responding to you? Because you give me absolutely no reason to as you willingly misread everything I said.

Matt cassel was a good pick as a 7th rounder. I wrote that. Halleluia and bless you.

My point is that everyone has Mills evaluated much lower than a 1st rounder. If the Patriots outsmart every other team by picking him in the first, they will have only outsmarted themselves, given their track record with 1st grades on guys everyone else rates much lower.

 

[upstater1]

I never responded to anyone taking Mills at 15. I am not advocating for drafting Mills at 15.

I responded to you stating that the Pats have a horrible record of drafting QBs. I was pointing out how wrong you were.

I am not weighing in on anything else. I was addressing one specific thing.

You're replying to my post on Mills getting taking in the first round!!!!! Yes, the Patriots do not have a good record taking QBs recently.

 

[chasa]

Trevor Lawrence

 

[upstater1]

So you're getting on the Pats for Mallet?

I just don't see it. They've drafted guys to be backups and they've been backups.

They didn't draft guys to be backups. That's easy enough to do at many points in the draft, or UDFA or even FA. When you're drafting guys 2, 3, 4 rounds you're not drafting backups. You're seeing value that you might flip in the future or else as a replacement for Brady. Cassel was a backup pick, some of the others. Like Klingsbury. But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them. Other than Garoppolo who was pegged as a replacement, none of these guys were actually needed by the team. They were taken in the 3rd and 4th round because the Patriots had 1st and 2nd round grades on them.

 

[upstater1]

Here's a key difference in how fans understand the NFL. I think the statement above is just wrong about the roughly 240 players that are drafted every year. Very few of them become starters who put together two good years (better than average NFL players).

How many examples do you want me to give? Nick Foles, Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, hell Christian Ponder (who we're calling a bust) had 1 1/2 good years, Tyrod Taylor, Colin Kaepernick, Marcus Mariota, Josh Freeman (whatever happened to him?!), Scott Mitchell, David Gerrard, Jason Campbell, Blake Bortles, Kyle Orton, Bobby Hebert, Chris Miller, etc.

The list is practically endless.

It happens a lot.

Heck, a few years ago Case Keenum had league MVP votes!! Then he became a backup.

What is perceived as rare is actually not that rare at all.

​

 

[Steve102]

They didn't draft guys to be backups. That's easy enough to do at many points in the draft, or UDFA or even FA. When you're drafting guys 2, 3, 4 rounds you're not drafting backups. You're seeing value that you might flip in the future or else as a replacement for Brady. Cassel was a backup pick, some of the others. Like Klingsbury. But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them. Other than Garoppolo who was pegged as a replacement, none of these guys were actually needed by the team. They were taken in the 3rd and 4th round because the Patriots had 1st and 2nd round grades on them.

We are going to agree to disagree then. They had Brady. These guys were drafted as clipboard guys, regardless of what grade someone gave them.

 

[Rob0729]

You're replying to my post on Mills getting taking in the first round!!!!! Yes, the Patriots do not have a good record taking QBs recently.

I was only responding to one point in your post. And what do you consider recently? They were 50% in getting a starting quality QB on their last two picks. That is pretty damn good.

And no offense, your analysis sucks, you are comparing Matt Cassel as a seventh rounder to all QB taken in the draft as if the expectations of a 7th round QB is the same as the first overall pick QB. Considering where the Pats took QBs over the last ten years and their success rate at drafting QBs are pretty good. It isn't like they are drafting QBs high. Few QBs past the first or second rounds ever become starters even for short periods of time.