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Are there any first round prospects you really don't want?


Not sure where you're getting the notion that the listed players, particularly the players in bold, were value picks rated much higher...
The Patriots rated them much higher.

We heard from Tom Curran and the like that they selected these QBs when they were not a need because the Patriots thought they were great values.
 
I was only responding to one point in your post. And what do you consider recently? They were 50% in getting a starting quality QB on their last two picks. That is pretty damn good.

And no offense, your analysis sucks, you are comparing Matt Cassel as a seventh rounder to all QB taken in the draft as if the expectations of a 7th round QB is the same as the first overall pick QB. Considering where the Pats took QBs over the last ten years and their success rate at drafting QBs are pretty good. It isn't like they are drafting QBs high. Few QBs past the first or second rounds ever become starters even for short periods of time.
I'm done responding to you. I said Cassel was a good pick there. You willfully misread what I write so there is no point in this discussion. Have at it, I won't respond.
 
Why would anyone believe that we know how to evaluate QBs that well? Look at our track record. The guy who evaluated Brady died more than a decade ago. Since then it's been nothing but misery:

2002, Round 4, Pick 117: Rohan Davey, LSU
2003, Round 6, Pick 201: Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
2005, Round 7, Pick 205: Matt Cassel, USC
2008, Round 3, Pick 94: Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State
2010, Round 7, Pick 250: Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
2011, Round 3, Pick 74: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2014, Round 2, Pick 64: Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
2016, Round 3, Pick 91: Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State
2018, Round 7, Pick 219: Danny Etling, LSU
2019, Round 4, Pick 133: Jarrett Stidham, Auburn

We don't seem capable of evaluating these guys, and we keep taking these so-called 1st round talents who drop (because no one else wants them) but we think they're missing the boat on O'Connell, Mallett, Brisset and Stidham (granted, with Stidham we had an actual need). But the other QBs? They were taken because we had a very high grade on them, and they dropped because no one else wanted them, but they were surely not a need.

Yeah, that is not a good track record by any means. I was just saying that you shouldn't have convulsions if we take Mills in round 1 because it would mean that BB has staked his entire remaining NFL coaching career on one QB basically......in other words...if BB is SOLD, so am I.
 
We are going to agree to disagree then. They had Brady. These guys were drafted as clipboard guys, regardless of what grade someone gave them.
I didn't say they drafted them to take over from Brady. I said they were also considered value picks that could be flipped, which is what they tried to do with a few of them. A backup could be had for cheap in many ways. No need to spend a 3rd rounder on one.
 
It's not that Jimmy was a bust, or not very good. I think he is good and was certainly worth the pick. It's just that he fits into the pattern of the Patriots taking a QB who they have rated highly at a level they consider to be value. And they did it with a premium pick at a time that, arguably, they didnt need to use a 2nd on a QB.
But my point is that they really haven't done that. What they've done is take QBs about where they'd have been taken, with Cassel being the notable exception, and Brissett arguably being another. Now, this is easier to see with more recent picks, as the trend of overdrafting the entire QB class is a recent one, but it's been the case since the beginning of BB's tenure in Boston.
 
It’s the same reasoning Bill Belichick used to draft Jordan Richards in the 2nd round when he was projected by many to be taken in the 6th round heading into the draft. Let’s not do that with our 15th overall pick please. If the Pats want Mills, there is a very good chance he’ll still be there at pick 46, but no chance a better prospect in that Horn, Slater, Paye group will make it to 46. Never bid against yourself.

Yeah, just saying if we did something that CRAZY....I am sold!
 
But my point is that they really haven't done that. What they've done is take QBs about where they'd have been taken, with Cassel being the notable exception, and Brissett arguably being another. Now, this is easier to see with more recent picks, as the trend of overdrafting the entire QB class is a recent one, but it's been the case since the beginning of BB's tenure in Boston.
I'm going by what was reported in the press. The Patriots had higher grades than the rest of the league on some of the guys they took, and they used pretty high picks to take these guys when they didn't need them (I'm specifically looking at Mallet, O'Connell, Brissett). I think it can be argued that Jimmy G. was a need pick given Brady's age, even though if you go back to Patsfans back then, a lot of fans here called it a waste of resources.
 
Yea. It's like when Michigan kept putting up mediocre QBs like Griese before Brady. There really aren't QB factories. But the best of all time, Brady and Montana, came from schools that at the time were power houses.

Yep, the NFL draft pick history of a school a QB comes from isn't a factor in my evaluation of QB's. For me, I might assign a grade based on the offensive system said QB played in...the coach he had...his teammates...but not the school's NFL QB history....
 
I'd only dispute the part of this that say "your opinion on the player himself." I don't have a very high opinion of my ability to evaluate QBs. Everyone and his mother is telling us that Trey Lance should be considered a top 15 pick. Those same people have said Mills is a 3rd rounder, and some have gone so far as to say they believe he has no shot.

So, I'm going by the general consensus. And I'm pretty consistent in stating that I don't believe the Patriots are the gurus of QB evaluation.
That's fine. As I said, that post wasn't really aimed at you, and I appreciate your perspective on this. I think your more dispassionate position is, perhaps, marginally more likely to be accurate than the takes we're getting everywhere else, because even those that we would normally expect to be mostly neutral have been handling this year's QB class as if it's just a popularity context combined with a track meet.

Really, I'd love to see every "athletic" QB in this class wash out, just to shut up all the idiots who think that the pocket QB has magically, practically overnight, become a lesser QB.
 
I'm going by what was reported in the press. The Patriots had higher grades than the rest of the league on some of the guys they took, and they used pretty high picks to take these guys when they didn't need them (I'm specifically looking at Mallet, O'Connell, Brissett). I think it can be argued that Jimmy G. was a need pick given Brady's age, even though if you go back to Patsfans back then, a lot of fans here called it a waste of resources.
Your recollection on these players is inaccurate. I specifically pointed out Davey, Mallett and Garoppolo to you, but the same holds for every QB they've taken besides Cassel and, depending on how you want to frame "rest of the league", Brissett.
 
2002, Round 4, Pick 117: Rohan Davey, LSU
2003, Round 6, Pick 201: Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
2005, Round 7, Pick 205: Matt Cassel, USC
2008, Round 3, Pick 94: Kevin O'Connell, San Diego State
2010, Round 7, Pick 250: Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State
2011, Round 3, Pick 74: Ryan Mallett, Arkansas
2014, Round 2, Pick 64: Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
2016, Round 3, Pick 91: Jacoby Brissett, North Carolina State
2018, Round 7, Pick 219: Danny Etling, LSU
2019, Round 4, Pick 133: Jarrett Stidham, Auburn

Looking at that list again:

Davey - Nothing except for funny arguments on Patriots boards 20 years ago.
Kingsbury - We illegally I/R'd him....per a radio interview he gave. He ended up a coach.
Cassell - Looked like crap except for the 2008 season. We got a 2nd rounder for him and Vrabel.
O'Connell - Another coach we drafted. I am sensing a theme here.
Robinson - Nothing.
Mallett - He was the #2 QB for two years before we finagled a 6th for him.
Garoppolo - Highest drafted QB in the BB era. Started 1.5 games...and we got a 2nd for him. Not too bad.
Brissett - Started 2.5 games, went on to be the Colts' starter following Luck's retirement, and we got Dorsett for him straight up.
Etling - Last I read, he was a back up for the Falcons....mostly remembered for a cool run in preseason.
Stidham - Was good enough to be our #2 in 2019 following a good preseason...fell off a cliff last year...could be better this year.

So, we burned:

2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 7th, and Vrabel

for

2nd, 2nd, 6th, Dorsett (2-3 seasons), 20 QB starts (4 from JG/JB and 16 from Cassell), and still have Stidham.

Not a GREAT haul, but we didn't burn a lot of assets as well.
 
Looking at that list again:

Davey - Nothing except for funny arguments on Patriots boards 20 years ago.
Kingsbury - We illegally I/R'd him....per a radio interview he gave. He ended up a coach.
Cassell - Looked like crap except for the 2008 season. We got a 2nd rounder for him and Vrabel.
O'Connell - Another coach we drafted. I am sensing a theme here.
Robinson - Nothing.
Mallett - He was the #2 QB for two years before we finagled a 6th for him.
Garoppolo - Highest drafted QB in the BB era. Started 1.5 games...and we got a 2nd for him. Not too bad.
Brissett - Started 2.5 games, went on to be the Colts' starter following Luck's retirement, and we got Dorsett for him straight up.
Etling - Last I read, he was a back up for the Falcons....mostly remembered for a cool run in preseason.
Stidham - Was good enough to be our #2 in 2019 following a good preseason...fell off a cliff last year...could be better this year.

So, we burned:

2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 7th, and Vrabel

for

2nd, 2nd, 6th, Dorsett (2-3 seasons), 20 QB starts (4 from JG/JB and 16 from Cassell), and still have Stidham.

Not a GREAT haul, but we didn't burn a lot of assets as well.
How bad was this? It depends on how much you think a backup is worth on the patriots, and on other teams.

Jimmy was draft highest as a potential starter and solid backup, and that's what he still is seven years later. To state the obvious, that is a huge success for a QB not drafted in the first round.
 
3 TEs? What is not to like? Even Cam could win the NFL MVP with Pitts/Henry/Smith.....
call one of them a WR if you really must. Personally, I think that we would trade up for Pitts, if all the QB's were gone.
 
Like I said, I wasn't saying you were wrong. I just think that looking at QBs by round taken, rather than by when taken among QBs, is a poor way to break it down. And I think that's become increasingly true as the league has trended more and more to a passing league with QBs protected, because that's warped the drafting pattern with regards to QBs. Davey's just one example, but pretty much every QB on Upstater's list fits that.

Ok, got it.

And yes, the drafting of QBs has definitely changed. Add the fact that so many teams need QBs and there are never any really good ones that come available.
 
Ok, got it.

And yes, the drafting of QBs has definitely changed. Add the fact that so many teams need QBs and there are never any really good ones that come available.
A while back, I did a breakdown of what you need to do in order to have a chance at getting a franchise QB. It turns out that you need to draft one of the top 7 QBs in the year's draft. I don't remember there being any exceptions at all (it's possible that I'm forgetting one, and Warner was a UDFA), but the issue is top 7 QB taken, not the round taken. We can see that with guys like Brady (7), Wilson (6), Montana (4). Obviously taking a top 7 pick is not a guarantee of getting the elite QB, but taking a QB who's chosen later than the 7th at his position has been a sure fire way of avoiding elite QBs.
 
Looking at that list again:

Davey - Nothing except for funny arguments on Patriots boards 20 years ago.
Kingsbury - We illegally I/R'd him....per a radio interview he gave. He ended up a coach.
Cassell - Looked like crap except for the 2008 season. We got a 2nd rounder for him and Vrabel.
O'Connell - Another coach we drafted. I am sensing a theme here.
Robinson - Nothing.
Mallett - He was the #2 QB for two years before we finagled a 6th for him.
Garoppolo - Highest drafted QB in the BB era. Started 1.5 games...and we got a 2nd for him. Not too bad.
Brissett - Started 2.5 games, went on to be the Colts' starter following Luck's retirement, and we got Dorsett for him straight up.
Etling - Last I read, he was a back up for the Falcons....mostly remembered for a cool run in preseason.
Stidham - Was good enough to be our #2 in 2019 following a good preseason...fell off a cliff last year...could be better this year.

So, we burned:

2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 4th, 6th, 7th, 7th, 7th, and Vrabel

for

2nd, 2nd, 6th, Dorsett (2-3 seasons), 20 QB starts (4 from JG/JB and 16 from Cassell), and still have Stidham.

Not a GREAT haul, but we didn't burn a lot of assets as well.
Nicely done.
 
This is one of the most interesting drafts I have seen in a long time. There’s not a lot of disagreement on the top 25 prospects, but where they go numerically and who takes them is all over the place. It’s looking like a very active first round, and I like that as the unpredictability creates opportunities. I disagree strongly with those ruling out prospects on need, there are going to be All Pro caliber prospects at 15, and they should take them even if they aren’t obvious need positions. You don’t become great in one draft or free agency, it’s a build up of great players through all the different ways of getting them. I don’t expect a Lombardi this coming season, but if they can set the franchise up for years of success by accumulating great players then keep doing it until you get there.
 


TRANSCRIPT: Eliot Wolf’s Pre-Draft Press Conference 4/18/24
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/18: News and Notes
Wednesday Patriots Notebook 4/17: News and Notes
Tuesday Patriots Notebook 4/16: News and Notes
Monday Patriots Notebook 4/15: News and Notes
Patriots News 4-14, Mock Draft 3.0, Gilmore, Law Rally For Bill 
Potential Patriot: Boston Globe’s Price Talks to Georgia WR McConkey
Friday Patriots Notebook 4/12: News and Notes
Not a First Round Pick? Hoge Doubles Down on Maye
Thursday Patriots Notebook 4/11: News and Notes
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