Are there any first round prospects you really don't want?

[Deus Irae]

For some who constantly ***** about everything the Patriots do.

No.... For pretty much everyone who's not a complete honk.

 

[upstater1]

I should just avoid draft threads.

So...apparently it's bad to have a draft scheme wherein a team grades a prospect high, but not so high that they use a high pick, but instead use a low one. So you're saying "buy low, sell high" is NOT the way to approach drafts or monetary pursuits especially in an extremely high failure rate enterprise like professional football player drafts?

Somebody get my investor on the line.

(and yes, I realize you're saying "just follow all the mock drafts" as your other bedrock point, but that's even LESS informed an approach. Scheme fit, coachability, and other factors are just as critical to drafting as what the mock drafts align their entire model on...numbers - and they are in no way tailored to any particular team)

11 of the 17 QBs drafted in the first round the last 5 years have been success. Players like Wentz and Darnold are among the 6 busts. Those are the odds.

What were the odds for finding a lower round franchise QB in the first round? Dak Prescott. That's it.

If you want to talk investing, then investing in Mallet and O'Connell is the equivalent of trying to catch a dagger. And we certainly sold those players a lot lower than we drafted them.

If we excelled at buying low/selling high, my attitude would be different. But almost no team does.

 

[upstater1]

Your recollection on these players is inaccurate. I specifically pointed out Davey, Mallett and Garoppolo to you, but the same holds for every QB they've taken besides Cassel and, depending on how you want to frame "rest of the league", Brissett.

Nope. We were told by the regional press that the inside scoop was that Mallet was a first rounder in the Patriots estimation.

 

[Deus Irae]

Nope. We were told by the regional press that the inside scoop was that Mallet was a first rounder in the Patriots estimation.

The Patriots screwing up their grades (assuming that's even what happened) doesn't make getting the player at the appropriate spot a steal. It makes the Patriots stupid for getting the grades wrong.

 

[Handel]

Do not want at 15:
-HB
-TE (not named pitts)
-OL (not named Sewell or Slater)
-any QB outside of the top 5 consensus
-DT
-S
-CB (not named Horn or Surtain)
-LB (not named Parsons or Collins)
-Kicker/Punter

Yeah, pretty much.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Would bb take the best safety in this class at number 15?

 

[mgteich]

Would bb take the best safety in this class at number 15?

I don't think so. A corner is much more likely. We have 2 starters at safety for 2022. We have no corners.

 

[Ivan]

Ras I Dowling nightmares....

I can understand that, same went for Easely, but picking so late means you have to take some chances. Both were highly regarded prospects with serious injury questions, but so was Gronk. The more disturbing pick to me was Easely, because it turned out that he really didn’t even like playing football, and would much rather play video games. Most prospects are going to have some injury history, but using a first on a guy who simply doesn’t give a sh.t is a true waste of a pick. I’m not sure how they missed that, but they should have tuned out anyone who went to bat for Easely.

 

[captain stone]

They didn't draft guys to be backups. That's easy enough to do at many points in the draft, or UDFA or even FA. When you're drafting guys 2, 3, 4 rounds you're not drafting backups. You're seeing value that you might flip in the future or else as a replacement for Brady. Cassel was a backup pick, some of the others. Like Klingsbury. But Davey, O'Connell, Brissett, Mallett, Garoppolo, Stidham, all these guys were considered value picks, who they had rated much higher than where they took them. Other than Garoppolo who was pegged as a replacement, none of these guys were actually needed by the team. They were taken in the 3rd and 4th round because the Patriots had 1st and 2nd round grades on them.

If the FO had 1st/2nd-round grades on Any of the players in bold, then that's just Awful evaluation...

Davey wasn't worth the trade-up from 131 to 117 that cost us 144;

KOC was taken TWO ROUNDS too early;

NFW that Brissett should've been taken ahead of Dak Prescott...Oh what might've been...

Mallett & Stid were taken about where they should've gone, but that still doesn't make either of them 1st/2nd-round caliber;

Grop has been the closest to match value with draft slot, and even then I considered him closer to a top-75 dude than a top-45 one.

 

[captain stone]

Do not want at 15:
-HB
-TE (not named pitts)
-OL (not named Sewell or Slater)
-any QB outside of the top 5 consensus
-DT
-S
-CB (not named Horn or Surtain)
-LB (not named Parsons or Collins)
-Kicker/Punter

I gave your post a well-deserved Winner, but I might also include Alijah Vera-Tucker with Sewell & Slater as top OLman, though still not necessarily a top-15 need this year...

 

[captain stone]

Kwity Paye

Why not? I'm much more afraid of somebody like Azeez Ojulari...

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

I gave your post a well-deserved Winner, but I might also include Alijah Vera-Tucker with Sewell & Slater as top OLman, though still not necessarily a top15 need this year...

I can honestly live with the next group of OL (AVT, Darrisaw) if we weren’t able to get a QB and both top corners are gone since OT is a need for 22 with one or both our starting tackles gone after this season.

 

[upstater1]

The Patriots screwing up their grades (assuming that's even what happened) doesn't make getting the player at the appropriate spot a steal. It makes the Patriots stupid for getting the grades wrong.

That's what I've been saying. I don't trust them to be the only team who thinks Garrett Mills is a 1st rounder because of their record in this regard.

 

[Twentytothree]

11 of the 17 QBs drafted in the first round the last 5 years have been success. Players like Wentz and Darnold are among the 6 busts. Those are the odds.

Wentz, Darnold, Trubisky, Goff, Love, Lynch, Rosen, Haskins, Jones. Depending on what one calls "success", it seems more like a 50-50 proposition to me. And that's with a cleverly chosen 5-year cutoff, as going back another few years would add luminaries such as Manziel, Manuel, Bortles, Mariota, Bridgewater, Winston to the list - none of them remain with their original team, which is one of the criteria I'd use for defining "success". Selling out to trade up and pick a QB high comes with a significant risk.

 

[upstater1]

Wentz, Darnold, Trubisky, Goff, Love, Lynch, Rosen, Haskins, Jones. Depending on what one calls "success", it seems more like a 50-50 proposition to me. And that's with a cleverly chosen 5-year cutoff, as going back another few years would add luminaries such as Manziel, Manuel, Bortles, Mariota, Bridgewater, Winston to the list - none of them remain with their original team, which is one of the criteria I'd use for defining "success". Selling out to trade up and pick a QB high comes with a significant risk.

You think Goff and Love are busts?

And you call me clever. Please, be real.

 

[Sicilian]

You think Goff and Love are busts?

And you call me clever. Please, be real.

I don't think Goff is a bust, but they had to trade multiple firsts to draft him, then had to trade extra picks four years later to get rid of him. I wouldn't call that a success either.

Calling Love a bust is silly though. By that logic Rodgers himself was a bust because he didn't beat out Brett Favre his rookie year.

 

[upstater1]

I don't think Goff is a bust, but they had to trade multiple firsts to draft him, then had to trade extra picks four years later to get rid of him. I wouldn't call that a success either.

Calling Love a bust is silly though. By that logic Rodgers himself was a bust because he didn't beat out Brett Favre his rookie year.

I think he's a good enough QB in this league though. His stats are through the roof and he's had playoff success. The Rams are in a go-for-broke mentality and they got raked over the coals. Given what Goff has done, it is very hard to see him as a bust.

Give Belichick that Rams team with Goff as the QB and he wins 2 Super Bowls.

The Rams blamed their own ineptitude on a QB who has pretty good stats, and though he's not a top dog, he's about where we all thought he would be when he was drafted.

 

[Twentytothree]

You think Goff and Love are busts?

And you call me clever. Please, be real.

I didn't use the word "busts". I think it's a stretch to call a first round pick a success before he has played a single down. Whether it's a success when you have to package your former #1 overall with two additional first round picks to get rid of him is debatable, IMO.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I just don't want Tubidis Apointed

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Parsons once choked out a teamate, not a good vibe from this guy. I'd rather the Pats trade down and take the Owusu kid from Notre Dame, he hits like a truck!