A rather surprising stat

[QuantumMechanic]

Kinda surprising, given #3 and #4's histories:

2018 QBs with highest rate of off-target passes thru Week 9
1. Mitchell Trubisky 22.0%
2. Sam Darnold       21.7%
3. Tom Brady         21.2%
4. Aaron Rodgers     20.4%
5. Josh Rosen        20.1%

(This is from ESPN Stats & Info and excludes throwaways and spikes.)

 

[jah]

Is this a PFF thing? Are throwaways counted? Incorrect routes?

 

[Brewskies]

I am surprised that Brady made the list. Last game vs GB probably his worst in this category.
BTW I am not worried about this number. Brady is a crunch time QB.

Go Pats

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Is this a PFF thing? Are throwaways counted? Incorrect routes?

Like I said above, throwaways are not counted. And when I saw an earlier week's version of this stat it said that incorrect routes are also not counted, so I assume that's true here as well.

 

[slam]

Nathan Peterman accurately throws his passes to the other team.

PFF is trash, as always.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Kinda surprising, given #3 and #4's histories:

2018 QBs with highest rate of off-target passes thru Week 9
1. Mitchell Trubisky 22.0%
2. Sam Darnold       21.7%
3. Tom Brady         21.2%
4. Aaron Rodgers     20.4%
5. Josh Rosen        20.1%

(This is from ESPN Stats & Info and excludes throwaways and spikes.)

And these are figured in all season with JE out first 4 games and Gronk, Sony in & out and CP playing a RB role and really never having a true identity on Offense while new receivers are learning as they go. Like to see our Offense running on all cylinders then that stat will be way better.

 

[1960Pats]

If there isn't a rule against posting useless crap from BSPN then there should be.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

And these are figured in all season with JE out first 4 games and Gronk, Sony in & out and CP playing a RB role and really never having a true identity on Offense while new receivers are learning as they go. Like to see our Offense running on all cylinders then that stat will be way better.

We’ll see - hope you’re right! These count passes which are near a receiver but off a bit (like when a pass misses Edelman by a couple of feet to the side), so it’s not going be affected by “receiver runs different route than what QB was expecting” problems.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

For further context:



Looks like Brady has sucked almost every year since 2006. Amazing how such an inaccurate QB could get his team to 5 SBs in that time.

Regards,
Chris

 

[Tony2046]

Kinda surprising, given #3 and #4's histories:

2018 QBs with highest rate of off-target passes thru Week 9
1. Mitchell Trubisky 22.0%
2. Sam Darnold       21.7%
3. Tom Brady         21.2%
4. Aaron Rodgers     20.4%
5. Josh Rosen        20.1%

(This is from ESPN Stats & Info and excludes throwaways and spikes.)

So this is interesting. I posted the first series vs GB in the rewatch thread and on the third play Brady throws a deep pass to Gordan while he's double covered but the pass seems to be approximately 3 or 4 yards off target landing to Gordan's right.

I believe that throw was on target and the plan was for Gordan to split the coverage and get the ball similar to his TD reception vs the Colts. But that throw would also count as being off target.

Something to look at and for in the coming weeks.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Yeah. The stat will ignore big miscommunications but won’t ignore small ones. That’s why when I’ve been watching for this kind of stuff I primarily look at throws to Gronk, Edelman, and White.

 

[Tony2046]

Yeah. The stat will ignore big miscommunications but won’t ignore small ones. That’s why when I’ve been watching for this kind of stuff I primarily look at throws to Gronk, Edelman, and White.

I don't think that was a miscommunication. I think it was a designed play to take advantage of Gordan's elite ability to go get the ball.

Ftr, I'm not implying that all of Brady's off target throws were designed plays. Haha. Just a few.

 

[PatsWSB47]

Brady has been off a bit more this year it seems...... doesn't mean much. His receivers have changed and it takes time to know where to be and when and what spot to throw to. Gronks been dinged up and Gordon and Brady are just getting to know each other. I'm not trying to excuse anything but I think it helps explain some of it

 

[Ring 6]

We’ll see - hope you’re right! These count passes which are near a receiver but off a bit (like when a pass misses Edelman by a couple of feet to the side), so it’s not going be affected by “receiver runs different route than what QB was expecting” problems.

It’s a phony statistic.

 

[IcyPatriot]

How can they quantify a you catch the pass or nobody catches it?

 

[RobertWeathers]

Bogus stats

 

[Tony2046]

For further context:



Looks like Brady has sucked almost every year since 2006. Amazing how such an inaccurate QB could get his team to 5 SBs in that time.

Regards,
Chris

That's an amazingly surprising chart.

 

[BobDigital]

It depends what you mean by off target. Let us look at 2 examples.

QB A - He sees his WR is one on one 20 yards down the field in tight coverage. He throws it at the WR numbers and misses slightly, causing both the WR and CB to slow down a bit. It is tight coverage, the DB is there to knock it away and even have a chance to intercept the pass. While the chance of a reception might be higher with this kind of throw, the risk is also higher.

QB B - He sees his WR is one on one 20 yards down the field in tight coverage. He throws it ahead of the WR. It would take an very good play by the WR to make catch if he places the ball perfectly. The ball in this case is over thrown and misses the WR and CB by over 2 yards. While the chance of a reception is lower the risk is much lower; as even if he under throws the ball slightly his WR would probably still have better position as he aimed ahead.

One of these is considered an on-target pass and the other is not, but which pass is the better one to make in most situations?

With the above being true IMO it is also true this has clearly not been a good year for Brady. And I'm not just talking about the tipped interceptions caused by his WRs. Maybe we are starting to see a slight decline. It is worth watching.

 

[Nehalem]

For further context:

Part I find most interesting is how Brady fared worst in 2013. Its almost like inaccurate passes is about more than the QB.

 

[Brick27]

A throw labeled off target could have many things to do with option route failures, other receiver miscues, and general nuances of this offense in particular. Hard to chalk it to any one thing.