Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by neuronet, May 29, 2019.
QB SB rings:
TB: Most all-time
Everyone else: Who cares
Thanks for the post though (sincerely)
Those arent my words, I posted it to show how ridiculous the formula is and how there is no possible way you could ever conclude that this formula is the preferred way to rate a QB.
so...I'm guessing this proves the Rich Keefe Corollary that because some gofer texted "deflator" once nine months previous to the AFCCG with Indy, that Brady is guilty...because "the phone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"...or else it could mean Rich Keefe is a complete dork with an intelligence quotient south of 10....hmmmm..this is a tough one
It's an odd stat, less is always more with the passer rating but maybe it shouldn't always be. Below are 2 wide receiver stats with a PR attached to them, everything equal, including catch% except rec/target totals.
A. 4 rec 5 targets 100yds 2tds = 158.33
B. 8 rec 10 targets 100yds 2tds = 147.92
Who had the better game? The qbr says player A, but depending on the game it could be player B. Player B helped control the clock with 8 rec equaling 6 minutes of playing time, player A only 3 minutes. If you needed quick scoring it could be A, controlling the clock B.
I find these qbrs from SB's interesting(pit vs Ram Pats vs Hawks)
14 of 21 309yds 2 tds 3ints 101.9 PR
37 of 50 328yds 4tds 2ints 101.1 PR
Passer rating says Bradshaw was slightly better with 2 less tds, 1 more int and 19 less yds.
If you were just looking at the numbers without watching the game and no PR attached to them you'd assume Brady had the better game. If we add time to the equation that would be 37 completions equaling nearly 28 minutes of game time compared to 14 completion, 10.5 minutes.
Below are 3 more from SB's
9 of 14 96yds 1td 108.0 PR
14 of 22 157yds 1td 100 PR
16 of 27 145yds 1td 86.2 PR
IMO you always have to watch the games to know who had the best performance, but just looking at the numbers I'd go Montana, Brady then Bradshaw.
I always play around with it during the season but don't put much stock in it, there's so much context left out. Mahomes not scoring in the 1st half of the AFCCG with a stacked offense at home, missing a layup TD and getting sacked out of FG range will never show up in his passer rating(117 PR and Brady around 77). And I think TB outplayed him personally but PR says Mahomes was in another stratosphere.
I also don't like it because some teams are stacked while others are just average at the skill positions. So comparing Mayfield's numbers to Mahomes is just futile. Or early Mannings numbers throwing to a bunch of 1st rounders to TB's numbers or even TB's numbers compared to guys throwing to complete nobodies. There's also outdoor vs indoor, home vs road, strength of schedule, Oline play, injuries, bad weather etc...
To just go to QB rating as an indicator of "playoff greatness" is folly.. the whole metric is flawed(see above).
The best barometer is wins vs. losses, in Brady's case he is 30 & 10... a 75% career winning record. Then there is the whole 6 rings thing, which is irrefutable evidence..
Totally forgot about that! Yes indeed, that was a Horrible decision. If Brady had paused just one more heartbeat, he would've seen that the pass had Zero chance of completion. That one is on him.
Agrteed, the funny part is his winning % reg season is 77.5%, in the playoffs 75%, now the sample size for the playoffs is now 40 games the equivalent of 2.5 seasons of FB. That is truly astonishing.
It was the last straw, that's for sure. One possible way he rationalized his decision to throw was that he had completed a pass almost exactly like that earlier in the season at home (possibly just one week ago vs the Bungles?) and thought he could get away with that again...Wrong.
Fortunately, that loss didn't affect playoff positioning at all. If they had held on to win at Miami, the 15-1 Pats would still have had to go to 15-1 Sh1tsdirt for the AFCC.
Bart Starr is the only QB on that list with a higher winning % than Brady.
The Packers had a group of very good skill players. Both RB's are HOF players, Carrol Dale, Marv Fleming, Boyd Dowler and Max McGee were good receivers for the time.
Also Starr never threw more than 300 passes in a year. He would normally throw from 20-25 passes per game.
Another thing that bugs me is when people say wins/losses are a team stat but fail to recognize that a passer rating and passing stats in general can largely be considered team stats(offense).
Yeah - I agree with this, though I think the quarterback essentially sets a base.
Just looking at Brady, for example, I believe he has roughly a base passer rating of about 90. That is, put any level of skill players around him, even bad ones (like 2013, 2006), and he’ll probably put up a rating of 90-95 at a minimum with these current rules. That’s over a full season with all its ups and downs, garbage time included, etc.
Put some decent players around him, though still some issues, you get a passer rating closer to 95-100, like last year, where we saw a mixed bag.
Very good supporting cast, though not without some flaws (like 2017) and we’re at 100-105.
Great/elite skill players and protection and we start getting to that 110 and above level. 2007, 2010, 2016.
Brady is the same QB every year. The passer rating variation is all about the talent around him, and it has a range of about 20 points, which is a huge deal. On average it’s close to 100, so right in the middle of the range.
Is passer rating the end all be all for who is a good QB and who is a bad QB? No, of course not but is a decent baseline. Of course you can find games where one quarterback's passer rating is better or worse than he actually played but averaged out over time it is generally a decent indicator of their season as a whole.
The difference in eras obviously comes into play as well. I personally look at the current era is 2004 and up. Basically after Polian whined about his soft receivers getting manhandled in the 2003 AFCCG. From the mid 90's to 2003 the average YPG passing was in the low 200's. From 2004 on it has steady risen to around 230 YPG. Same with the steady rise in passing through late 70's into the early 90's. If you break the QB's up into those three different eras the good ones generally have around the same passer ratings.
Staubach, Trankenton, Fouts, and Greise were all Hall of Famers who played generally around the same timeframe and had passer ratings in the high 70's to low 80's.
Montana, Marino, Kelly, and Moon are all Hall of Famers that all played in the 80's to early 90's and had passer ratings in the 80's to low 90's.
In the current era a quarterback basically needs to be high 90's and above to be considered elite. The active elite group is Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, and Brady who all have passer ratings of 90 and above.
Slow-mo the first Rams pass/INT. If he throws it to Edelman (who appears to be the isolated first option), it’s probably a streaking touchdown. Edelman has separation and an open field up the middle.
I agree, I always think of it as an offensive metric weighted more on the qb.
My problem has always been comparing numbers (2006) for example with a stacked Manning indoor offense. It's such a horribly blind thing to do.
EDIT: So I guess my overall problem is that It's only a good measure if all things are relatively equal across the board and this is hardly ever the case.
But there's also the SBs by Brady and Bradshaw I listed above and Matt Ryan's passer rating 50 points higher than Brady's and others like that which cause me to shake my head...
Another tidbit on Brady's post season passer rating, he's played in 22 championship games(SB/afcccg). Compared to guys like Rodgers who only played in 4, and in 3 of his NFCCGs he had horrible numbers, passer rating in the 70s, 4tds, 5 pics.
He's racked up nice numbers in the 1st round and dropped off in later rounds. Same with Brady, he's destroyed teams and broken records in the 1st round or 2 posting high passer ratings, 6td game, super high completion percentage.
22 championship games...
Brady's regular season passer rating:
Brady's postseason passer rating: 90.5
Brady's postseason passer rating (first 26 games): 87.4
Brady's postseason passer rating (last 14 games): 95.0
Other interesting ways to parse the playoff game data....
In games where Brady's passer rating is 115.0 or better, they're 6-1.
In games where Brady's passer rating is 100.0 or better, they're 15-1.
In games where Brady's passer rating is below 80.0, they're 10-5.
In games where Brady's passer rating is below 70.0, they're 4-3.
In games where Brady has thrown 50+ passes, they're 6-2.
In games where Brady has thrown fewer than 30 passes, they're 7-0.
In games where Brady has thrown more than 1 int, they're 6-4.
In games where Brady has thrown at least 1 int, they're 14-7.
In games where Brady has thrown 0 int, they're 16-3.
In games where Brady has thrown 3 or more TD, they're 10-1.
In games where Brady has thrown 0 TD, they're 5-0.
In games where Brady has completed 66.0% of his passes or better, they're 16-0.
In games where Brady has completed less than 60.0% of his passes, they're 7-5.
In home playoff games, Brady is 20-3.
In road/neutral site playoff games, Brady is 10-7.
In home playoff games, Peyton is 10-6.
In road/neutral site playoff games, Peyton is 4-7.
Brady's road/neutral playoff record is almost identical to Peyton's HOME playoff record. Amazing.
TFB ALL DAY, EVERY DAY, ANY DAY! PERIOD!
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