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qb playoff passer ratings: Bart Starr #1 You'll never guess where Brady is (#14)

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by neuronet, May 29, 2019.

  1. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Once again comparing Starr to Brady is pure folly as the game is completely different than it was in the late 50's to the early 70's..

    Consider:
    In 19 years Brady has thrown and completed 9375/6004
    or an average of 520 passes and 333 completions per year
    In 17 years Starr has thrown and completed 3149/1808
    or an average of 185 passes and 106 per year...

    Even more folly or a problem with the metrics:
    Bart Starr a lifetime passer rating of 80.5
    Tom Brady a lifetime passer rating of 97.6

    Bart Starr 152 total TD's in a 17 year career,avg. 9 per year
    Tom Brady 517 total TD's in a 18 year career, avg. 29 per year

    For s..it and giggles:
    Otto Graham lifetime passer rating of 86.6
    Johnny Unitas lifetime passer rating of 78.8

    All were great in their own times as was Otto Graham, Johnny Unitas and all the rest, but comparisons are very difficult due to the way the rules and game has changed significantly over the years.. how the game was played in the 50's, 60's and 70's is completely different..
     
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  2. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp In the Starting Line-Up

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    Woody Hayes used to say that passing was a bad idea because there are three possible outcomes in passing, and two of them are bad: completion, incompletion, interception.

    Of course, that was simplistic, as there could also be penalties and sacks and scrambles for first downs and a host of other things, but the point was pretty accurate....back when he said it. Because back when he said it, it was really hard to complete passes. Just look at elite lock HOFer Terry Bradshaw's passing numbers. I'll just look at the great 6-year run where they won 4 Super Bowl championships - one of the greatest stretches the game has ever known. Surely their HOF quarterback put up really good numbers, right?

    Well, over that four year stretch....

    952-1,780 (53.5%), 13,179 yds, 106 td, 90 int, 76.3 rating

    Of his 1,780 pass attempts:
    - 952 (53.5%) were completions
    - 738 (41.5%) were incompletions
    - 90 (5.1%) were interceptions

    (rounding makes it seem like there's an additional 0.1% there somewhere)

    So Hayes wasn't quite right, but he wasn't far off. In 2018, only one starting QB had a worse completion % than Bradshaw during Bradshaw's HOF run: Josh Allen, at 52.8%. Only two QBs had a worse passer rating than Bradshaw during this run: Allen (67.9) and Josh Rosen (66.7). Note that Allen and Rosen were both rookies last year, while Bradshaw was at his absolute Hall of Fame peak, and yet the numbers are quite comparable.

    This isn't to say that Allen and Rosen are as good as Bradshaw. Rather that the nature of the game has changed SO much to favor passing, that crappy rookies of today are posting the same numbers as elite Hall of Famers did back in their prime, decades ago.
     
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  3. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    Yep, trying to compare QBs from post-1978 (and especially post-2004) to QBs before then is unfair to the earlier QBs.

    Also shows that Bradshaw is one of the most Over-Rated good QBs of All Time.
     
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  4. UptownPatsFan

    UptownPatsFan Standin' Pat

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    Winning is all that matters.

     
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  5. PatsWSB47

    PatsWSB47 Pro Bowl Player

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    Dumb hashtag. His agenda is to diminish Brady. In the comments section he says Ryan should have got an MVP in SB 51 because of his efficiency. I wonder why he didnt write that Brady deserved an MVP in 52 with his record breaking 505 yards?.....exactltly!
     
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  6. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    More proof that passer rating is a useless formula.
     
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  7. SBLIII

    SBLIII In the Starting Line-Up

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    I have followed this dude for some time and I don't think he has ever said anything positive about Brady
     
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  8. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes, it’s more complex than comparing raw numbers, but you can adjust form eras and win/loss records are a constant.

    In 25 years, you’ll have some new generation talking about how Brady isn’t among the best because he never threw for 75 TDs in a season. I realize it’s a tall task, but I think it’s possible to compare QBs throughout eras, though it gets a lot easier starting around the 1980s.
     
  9. The Boston Patriot

    The Boston Patriot PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Looking at that list, it says all you want to know about passer rating as any kind of metric.
     
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  10. Doctor DDS

    Doctor DDS Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Until they can figure out a way to count non passing scoring plays into the equation the stat will always have serious problems. Last 3 drives in KC game and TD drive in Rams Super Bowl were all led by Brady passing but because they ultimately ran the ball in for the score he does not get the rating bump. Last few drives in Falcons Superbowl were the same. If memory serves the Pats accumulated 160 or so yards in the final 2 drives and all of them were gained through the air except for 1 and 2 yard TD runs by White. (there was also the 10 yard "run" by White that was off of a screen pass that went slightly backwards)

    Brady's 97 regular season rating and 90 post season rating are both exceptional but likely sell him short as clutch is not factored in. I would imagine that there has never been a QB in history who has benefited less from garbage time points than Brady as the Pats are so rarely behind by significant amounts.

    In regards to the playoff games where his passer rating was below 74 I actually thought he played well in several of them. Raiders snow game, Titans game in the bitter cold and in a few of the others where he struggled he still came up huge with the crucial drive late (Chargers in SD, Broncos despite still falling short was a heroic effort with the beating he was taking, 10 points in late in recent Super Bowl)
     
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  11. robbomango

    robbomango In the Starting Line-Up

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    More numbers with no context, 1 game played in a blizzard, another in antarctica and for the most part his competition played worse(see below), except Flacco with a 95 qbr but screw the ravens.
    Choker-Rivers 55.5, 46.1
    Imploded-Gof 57.9
    Sucks-Osweiler 47.6
    Blizzard game-Gannon had a 79 rating but only threw for 159 yds compared to Brady's 300
    Arctic game-Mcnair had a 90 compared to Brady's 73 rating, he had about the same amount of yards with 1 more pic than TB.

    I guess people could give the defense all the credit but those teams had pretty good defenses as well some of them much better.

    He also lost 3 SBs posting an average qb in the 90's 6tds, 1 pic and threw for over 1000yds but I guess that doesn't fit his narrative...
     
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    Last edited: Jun 1, 2019
  12. robbomango

    robbomango In the Starting Line-Up

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    Double post
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2019
  13. neuronet

    neuronet Homer Little PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It does seem it would be useful to post a qbr differential: that is, for every game player X has played, what is the delta between them and the opponent QB in that same game. Take the qbr differential for brady in the postseason....
     
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  14. stinkypete

    stinkypete In the Starting Line-Up

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    2 thoughts:
    • A basic tenet of statistics is that the larger a sample size, the more regression you will see toward a mean. When a QB has played literally 2.5 seasons worth of football, regression to the mean will happen.
    • Brady has absolutely thrown some bad INT in the postseason, and especially in Super Bowl play. It happens. Brett Favre once threw 6 INTs in one playoff game. Joe Montana got shut out in the playoffs once, and lost a home playoff game to a .500 team, the #2 guy on this list lost to a nobody first year starter in a Super Bowl, and the #3 guy on the list blew a 25 point lead in the Super Bowl.
    He who is without sin, cast the first stone.
     
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  15. Patstastic

    Patstastic Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Lol @ the Rivers with 25 kids comment. I spit my juice out.
     
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  16. neuronet

    neuronet Homer Little PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If that player's actual mean is higher than everyone else's then we wouldn't expect it to settle toward everyone else. Just saying 'regression toward the mean' doesn't imply that everyone goes toward the same value. It means that with a large enough sample size the sample mean will approach the actual mean...

    Though you are right it would suggest Sanchez is a fluke and if we had 2.5 season's worth he would definitely sink toward his true mean. For people like him, with low samples, we have bad sampling bias. So definitely that point is well-taken.

    For Brady, it suggests we have a pretty good estimate.
     
  17. FirstAndGoal

    FirstAndGoal 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I pay attention to the game and the play. I know that stats can be misleading. I don't bother with the stats.. That might be funny to you but I know there's more to the game than stats but if that's what you need to be able to determine good play or not, go for it.

    Tell me, why are things weighted the way they are? That's supposed to be objective? It's a crap set of stats.
     
  18. robbomango

    robbomango In the Starting Line-Up

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    Here's some more numbers
    Playoffs: Brady 279yds Montana 250yds per game, both roughly a little better than 2-1 int ratio 73-34 vs 45-21(brady's a fraction of a percent better), Joe comp percentage 62.67 vs Brady 63.25. Passer rating Brady 90.5- Joe 95.6.

    So even though you complete a higher percentage of passes for nearly 30 more yds per game you end up with a lower passer rating because yds per attempt dictate efficiency.

    SB51 is the best example of that, even if we remove the pic and give Brady 2 more TD passes for a total of 4, you get a rating 32 tics lower than Matt Ryan's. 112-144.
    The raw numbers would be 43 of 62, 466yds, 4tds, 0 pics vs 17 of 23, 284yds, 2tds 0pics.
     
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  19. 203Pat

    203Pat 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Okay so you watch every game of every QB to know how they’re playing?
     
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  20. QuantumMechanic

    QuantumMechanic Burn it all down! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The constants in the QB rating formula were set based on league averages decades ago. It would be interesting for someone to make 1955, 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015 versions of the formulas using the averages in those years and see what ratings are under each of those versions. Probably would be a more valid way to compare across eras since you could then say stuff like "Well, Marino was x% better than a typical quarterback in his era while Starr was y% better than a typical quarterback in his era".
     
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