Gillette would have been razed, and the grounds salted, if they'd traded Brady. We don't really need to go looking for conspiracies beyond that.
OK. Here's the theory.
It's about the dog in the night time -- the one that didn't bark.
If you were going to trade Garoppolo, when would you do it? The answer is obvious. Before or at the time of the 2017 draft. A second-rounder for a franchise quarterback? That's ridiculous -- but that's what you have to settle for if you're holding a fire sale.
What should they have got if they traded Garoppolo at the time of the 17 draft? By that time, anyone who knows anything about football would have seen JG play. In particular, that first half against Miami before he got injured was ridiculous. Just comparing him with Tannehill made it obvious who the better player was -- the accuracy, the decision-making and the way he looked defenders off with his eyes.
If I'd have been the Pats, I'd have made the following demand. I'd have asked for a 17 first-rounder. Then I'd have asked for the 18 first-rounder conditional on JG being on the team at the beginning of the 18 league year. In that way you give the buyer an option. If JG really sucks, they cut him at the end of his rookie deal and they've given up a first-rounder in the hunt for a franchise quarterback. It happens. If he pans out, it's cost them two first-rounders. Well worth it.
Now we know that the Pats weren't interested in offers for JG at that time. What does that show? That BB is dumb? I don't think so.
So my conclusion is that he must have believed that the way was open for Garoppolo to take over. Which means that either Brady must have told him that he was going to retire, or he planned to ship Brady out.
What's the succession plan now? Danny Etling? I don't think so.
Yes, that would have been the most sensational thing BB had ever done. What coach would have the ... er, moral fortitude to do something like that? My answer: Bill Belichick. Go ask Drew Bledsoe. Go ask Bernie Kosar.
So, if I'm right, it's no wonder that the relationship between Belichick and Brady and Kraft hasn't been puppies and roses. And surprises in the future wouldn't be surprising.