Your Second Tier QB Thoughts --- {Poll Added}

[RobertWeathers]

It just occurred to me that Chris Simms talking about SF wanting Mac may also be a bluff. SF says “pay a 1st for Jimmy”, Bill says nah I’ll just draft Mac, SF “leaks” that they traded up for Mac so he won’t be there for Bill to take.

All these media morons are played like fiddles.

Lynch is no idiot and Shanny Jr is pretty sharp.

However BB is immune to these BS Jedi mind tricks.

 

[Ross12]

All these media morons are played like fiddles.

Lynch is no idiot and Shanny Jr is pretty sharp.

However BB is immune to these BS Jedi mind tricks.

Yeah, Bill’s response was probably “cool, we’ll see who you actually take on draft day.”

 

[manxman2601]

I hear you guys. If it took a future 1st I wouldn’t be disgusted. I just think of it as a matter of risk. Maybe Mac is your guy and you’re 100% sure, but he tears his ACL a few games in like Burrow did and your 1st the next year is top 5. But now you don’t have that pick. I would rather trade a known value if I can.

I don’t disagree. I just think that’s what it might take to get up there considering the Dolphins-Eagles trade. Have to hope he’s there at 15.

 

[patsinthesnow]

A reminder of the odds an NFL team is up against when drafting a day 2 QB. Ignore the numbers as the sheet is out of date.

Round 2 QBs 1998-2020



17 Busts
5 Acceptable starters
Drew Brees

Worth saying the pats drafted one of the better second round QBs in Jimmy G. There has been one "answer" drafted in the second round and it was Brees in 2000.

Round 3 QBs 1998-2020



26 Busts*
2 Acceptable Starters
1 Franchise QB

*Foles sb run

Basically a wasteland. Wilson's success as an outlier helped paved the way for someone similar not falling in the draft again with Mayfield & Murray both going #1 overall.

I don't have opinions yet on Mond, Trask & Mills but I'll take history into account when checking them out.

 

[manxman2601]

@patsinthesnow Hi PiTS. You were the Jimmy G whisperer so where are you on all this. Jimmy or draft pick?

 

[manxman2601]

A reminder of the odds an NFL team is up against when drafting a day 2 QB. Ignore the numbers as the sheet is out of date.

Round 2 QBs 1998-2020

View attachment 31719

17 Busts
5 Acceptable starters
Drew Brees

Worth saying the pats drafted one of the better second round QBs in Jimmy G. There has been one "answer" drafted in the second round and it was Brees in 2000.

Round 3 QBs 1998-2020

View attachment 31720

26 Busts*
2 Acceptable Starters
1 Franchise QB

*Foles sb run

Basically a wasteland. Wilson's success as an outlier helped paved the way for someone similar not falling in the draft again with Mayfield & Murray both going #1 overall.

I don't have opinions yet on Mond, Trask & Mills but I'll take history into account when checking them out.

It’s worth pointing out that everyone knew Wilson had first round talent, it was his size that caused him to fall.

 

[oldrover]

Lynch is no idiot and Shanny Jr is pretty sharp.

However BB is immune to these BS Jedi mind tricks.

Below, Bill is on the right:

 

[patsinthesnow]

@patsinthesnow Hi PiTS. You were the Jimmy G whisperer so where are you on all this. Jimmy or draft pick?

Good to see you more active here manx. My preference is either Jimmy G or trade up for Fields/Jones (assuming Lance goes 3) if the team’s evaluation on them is high obviously.

I’m a believer in Jimmy G’s skillset with this offense. The injury concerns don’t bother me as much because there aren’t many alternatives to getting competent QB play.

 

[jmt57]

Apologies for the duplication, this is a partial copy and paste from a post I made in the Realistic trade packages to move up thread, which led me to considering Jamie Newman and the rest of the second tier QBs.

tl/dr version: with SF now in play for one of the top three QBs, the Patriots may not have enough ammunition to move up as far as we had hoped a week ago. If the Pats cannot move up to #7 in a trade with Detroit (which would put them ahead of the Panthers, Broncos and Eagles), a first tier QB is not going to be a realistic option.

The underlying issue is that there are as many as a dozen teams that will or could potentially take a QB early: Jax, NYJ, SF, Panthers, Broncos, Patriots, Washington, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami, Eagles and Steelers.

However there are only nine QBs that seem worth drafting in the first three rounds - Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Jones, . . . Kyle Trask, Jamie Newman, Davis Mills, and Kellen Mond - and all could conceivably be gone by the time the Pats make a choice in round two at #46. Some team(s) will be left out in this game of musical chairs; hopefully the Patriots are not one of them.

The conundrum is that if the best available QB when the Pats are on the clock is not worthy of a #15 draft pick, other teams picking soon after such as Washington (Ryan Fitzpatrick / Taylor Heinicke) and Chicago (Andy Dalton / Nick Foles) may pull the trigger on a QB - leaving the Pats with an even smaller group of QBs to choose from. Same possibility holds for teams picking early in the 2nd round (Atlanta, for Matt Ryan's eventual replacement; Miami, with their 3rd pick of the draft at #36 overall in case Tua does not progress).

If the first tier QBs go very quickly, will the same happen with second tier QBs?

That is a worst case scenario because it would mean either another season of Cam Newton, or having to overpay for a veteran (Jimmy G, Alex Smith). Is sticking to your value rating on the draft prospect board worth the risk of being the first one out in this game of QB musical chairs?

 

[manxman2601]

Good to see you more active here manx. My preference is either Jimmy G or trade up for Fields/Jones (assuming Lance goes 3) if the team’s evaluation on them is high obviously.

I’m a believer in Jimmy G’s skillset with this offense. The injury concerns don’t bother me as much because there aren’t many alternatives to getting competent QB play.

I like that. I’m yet to watch Fields but for now I’m

1. Mac Jones (trade up or otherwise)
2. Jimmy G
3. Stick with Cam and wait for next year.

I’m not one who holds out much hope for the likes of Mond or Mills.

 

[Lansdowne]

It just occurred to me that Chris Simms talking about SF wanting Mac may also be a bluff. SF says “pay a 1st for Jimmy”, Bill says nah I’ll just draft Mac, SF “leaks” that they traded up for Mac so he won’t be there for Bill to take.

Then Bill will be like:


“Great, I dare you to take Mac at #3!”

 

[mike_usagisan]

I wouldn’t rule out Mariota, I think Belichick can cut a deal with Mayock and Gruden. So I guess I would say that Garrapolo, Mac Jones, and Mariota are the most likely to end up in NE.

I think if BB wanted Mariota, BB would have told Mariota’s agent not to sign an extension.

 

[Ivan]

I think if BB wanted Mariota, BB would have told Mariota’s agent not to sign an extension.

Belichick can’t contact anyone representing players under contract, but no one was going to trade for Mariota under the deal he had before renegotiating.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

i am convinced Bill views Cam as a project and is going to try to the SB with him...

 

[mike_usagisan]

Belichick can’t contact anyone representing players under contract, but no one was going to trade for Mariota under the deal he had before renegotiating.

This is technically true, but it’s understood that it happens ALL the time.

 

[jmt57]

I wouldn’t rule out Mariota, I think Belichick can cut a deal with Mayock and Gruden. So I guess I would say that Garrapolo, Mac Jones, and Mariota are the most likely to end up in NE.

Mariota is an interesting possibility based on his contract. Just a week ago he was untradeable and would have been a sure cut due to his contract (base salary $10.6 mil, cap # of $11.35 mil), so he agreed to a new 1-year deal of $3.5 mil - with no signing bonus and nothing guaranteed. Mariota does have a no-trade clause though, and also has $8 mil in incentives. He'll never get those incentives as a backup - but could as a starter. IOW he would likely waive the no-trade clause if he were to go to a team where he had a reasonable possibility of starting.

The downside to a Mariota trade is that you are giving something of value up for what could turn out to be nothing more than a one-year rental - and for a borderline starter/backup QB that has already played his way out of a starting job.

 

[Nellie]

A reminder of the odds an NFL team is up against when drafting a day 2 QB. Ignore the numbers as the sheet is out of date.

Round 2 QBs 1998-2020

View attachment 31719

17 Busts
5 Acceptable starters
Drew Brees

Worth saying the pats drafted one of the better second round QBs in Jimmy G. There has been one "answer" drafted in the second round and it was Brees in 2000.

Round 3 QBs 1998-2020

View attachment 31720

26 Busts*
2 Acceptable Starters
1 Franchise QB

*Foles sb run

Basically a wasteland. Wilson's success as an outlier helped paved the way for someone similar not falling in the draft again with Mayfield & Murray both going #1 overall.

I don't have opinions yet on Mond, Trask & Mills but I'll take history into account when checking them out.

Thanks for this info. This is eye opening. Nice job no matter where you gathered the data from. Did you happen to put together anything on RD 1 QB picks for the same time period?

 

[Lansdowne]

i am convinced Bill views Cam as a project and is going to try to the SB with him...

Bill has pulled off many incredible coaching feats in his career but that might top everything if he could pull it off! And he had this team in the wildcard hunt up until mid-December which looking back on it was impressive enough given the difficulty of the schedule and the lack of skill talent on offense.

 

[stcjones]

I don't think Trask or Newman have it, I think both of them will be out of the league by the end of their rookie contract

Mills and Mond have a chance but need time and the right situation.

Outside of them I give Ehlinger a shot to have a good career as a back up and KJ Costello has the ability but has not shown anything like the consistency or mental capacity to play in the NFL. I don't see it with Shane Buchele or Ian Book, practice squad at best

I think Trask has a ton of potential and could be a great NFL QB ....however his injury history scares me ....not sure if he will have longevity in league.....great field vision and reads....tough as nails....hangs in pocket abnormally long and throws away as needed....decent arm..,.wish him success

 

[stcjones]

I have those 4 ranked Mond, Mills, Newman, Trask.

Mond is the most polished as a 4 year starter. He has a great arm, with a quick release, and has the athleticism to pick up yards with his legs when needed, move around the pocket effectively on boots etc. While his confidence in his arm can sometimes get him into trouble, he makes some wow throws. He does tend to lock in on his first receiver, but so do the other 3. It's actually what I like about Mac Jones - he is more advanced as a passer and has shown the ability to go through his progressions and look off defenders. That will stand him in good stead in the NFL.

I was surprised by Mills' testing numbers as I don't think they translate to the field, but he's a solid passer with a really good arm. He could be an NFL starter if he sits and learns for a couple of years.

Trask is a better passer than Newman but I think Newman, although raw, has more upside and I'd rather take a shot on that in the middle rounds. Trask has good touch but a weak arm and he's also a bit of a statue. I just don't see what you are hoping for with him.

My first choice would take Mond in the early 3rd round, although I wouldn't mind Mills or Newman in the 4th.

Mond great arm strength but bad reads and ACCURACY ....move him further down the list