MORSE: Patriots at Seahawks - Opening Night Matchup

We really don’t know anything about either team going into the NFL Season Kickoff game. Neither team played any of their starters in the Pre-Season. This probably is the result of playing so deep into the season last year reaching the Super Bowl. Both teams played 21 games and got a late start into their off-season programs.

Seattle

Seattle had many losses from their Super Bowl championship team. First, they lost Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak. He has been replaced by Brian Fleury, who previously served as the San Francisco 49ers’ tight ends coach and run game coordinator, bringing strong familiarity with the Kyle Shanahan offensive system. I would expect to see a lot of motion in this offense. Fleury has never called an Offensive Play in the NFL.

In the backfield, they lost Kenneth Walker to Free Agency and replaced him with rookie 1st-round pick Jadarian Price. He is a slasher with good speed to the outside. However, we don’t know what we will see from him. He is completely unknown as a Pro.

On defense, they were hit hard by Free Agency, losing DE Boye Mafe, CB Riq Woolen, and S Coby Bryant. Big Nickel S Nick Emmanwori has been sidelined with an ankle injury and is Questionable to play. If he can’t play, they don’t have another Safety on the 53-Man roster. Emmanwori played a rover position and has the size of a Linebacker and the cover skills of a cornerback. That could take them out of their two-deep safety zone defense. Mafe was terrific in the Super Bowl, putting pressure on Drake Maye. S Ty Okada is also on the injury report and ruled out. He is one of the two starting Safeties. Emmanwori was listed as LP and is listed as questionable, but several sources have stated that he will be out as well. Looks like Seattle is playing games with the injury report.

The Seahawks still have Sam Darnold at QB. The Patriots Defense held him to 50% completion % in the Super Bowl and a 57 QB Rating. He led the league with 20 turnovers. He is not that good. The journeyman has flopped around the league and has failed at every stop.

Patriots

The Patriots have improved on the Offensive Line with the addition of LG Alijah Vera-Tucker. AVT gives the two second-year linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson a veteran to lean on. Will Campbell has recovered from his knee injury. He should be much better than the 14 Pressures he gave up in the Super Bowl. Wilson’s play this Pre-Season, especially in the two Joint Practices against Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis, was very encouraging.

The Patriots also added one of the best Fullbacks in the league, Reggie Gilliam. If the Patriots can establish a run game, that will force the Seahawks to abandon the two-high shell and bring a Safety into the box.

The Patriots added two legitimate outside receivers in AJ Brown and Rome Doubs. Add this to the fact the Seahawks lost 2 DBs and possibly a 3^rd should make a big difference. Stefon Diggs was blanketed and a non-factor in the game. Seattle plays a lot of simulated pressure and dropped into a heavy zone Defense. They also blitzed from the cornerback position. Drake Maye has seen this trick and will be ready for it. In the Super Bowl, the Seahawks got a lot of Pressure from their base front 4 pass rushers.

Don’t be surprised if the Patriots come out with three Defensive Tackles (Williams, Barmore, and Durden). I am also interested in seeing how the Patriots utilize Jaylen Reed. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Big Nickel/ Dime package with Reed playing all over the field.

The Patriots added Kevin Byard at Safety. The 32-year-old has not slowed down, as he led the NFL with 7 Interceptions last year. Byard replaces Jaylinn Hawkins, whom the Patriots let walk in Free Agency.

The biggest loss the Patriots have is NT Khyris Tonga. They have not replaced his girth and run-stuffing ability on the DL. I think this will show up in short-yardage situations on the goal line and on 4th-down plays.

Can the Patriots put pressure on Sam Darnold without blitzing? Elijah Ponder has replaced Anfernee Jennings, and DreMont Jones has replaced K’Lavon Chaiison. Jones is a much better run defender and not as good a pass rusher. Ponder had 4 sacks in limited snaps last year. A big leap is expected from him. Is he stout enough against the run?

TreVeyon Henderson and Ben Brown have been ruled out. Christian Barmore (Knee) was a full participant on Monday and flew out with the team. Look for Lan Larison to be elevated to fill the 3^rd RB spot, with Corey Kiner moving up to 2^nd RB in place of Henderson.

Special Teams

Seattle Punter Michael Dickson was a huge factor in the Super Bowl. He consistently put the Patriots in bad field position by often flipping field position. Bryce Baringer did a good job of keeping the Seahawks Punt Returner Rashid Shaheed in check. Marcus Jones never got the chance to return any punts either.

With Bryce Baringer on the IR, it looks like Mitch Wishnowsky will get elevated from the Practice Squad. Special Teams coach Jeremy Springer would not identify who will be the Kickoff Returners. I think this has to do with whether or not TreVeyon Henderson will play. If he can’t go, I expect that Lan Larison will be the 3rd RB and kickoff returner.

Point Spread

The Seahawks are now 3.0 point favorites, down from 3.5 on Monday. The move must be attributed to the sharps coming in on the side of the Patriots. Home-field advantage is generally 3 points. That means the oddsmakers are making this game a toss-up. I think this a great opportunity for the Patriots to steal an early season win.

BREAKING NEWS

Early Tuesday morning, the Patriots and Christian Gonzalez reached an agreement on a contract extension. Gonzalez will receive $135M over 4 years, with $102M fully guaranteed. This exceeds the Devon Witherspoon contract in those two areas. The full structure needs to be seen to truly evaluate the contract, but it appears that it has exceeded the Witherspoon contract, making Gonzalez the highest-paid cornerback of all time (for now). This is according to a league source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity early Tuesday because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Jordan Schultz was first to report the news.

This is a breakthrough contract for the Patriots. They have never made any player the highest-paid player at their position. Additionally, according the Chad Graff of the Athletic, this will be three years in a row that the Patriots will set a new team record for the highest paid player in team history. Milton Williams last year, Gonzalez this year, and Drake Maye next year will all set new highs for the team.

I have to give Christian Gonzalez credit. He didn’t sit out, as he was a full participant in practice, minus the short period he was out with an ankle injury. He handled this very professionally and wouldn’t negotiate in the media. Robert Kraft remained true to what he said at the Opening of Training Camp that the Patriots offered Gonzalez the highest contract ever.

You can no longer call the Patriots and Bob Kraft cheap. Last season, the Patriots were the #1 spenders on Free Agency, landing Milt Williams. This year they ranked 7^th in free-agent spending and also traded for AJ Brown, another expensive contract. They also have Drake Maye coming due next season. Signing Gonzalez to an extension sends the right message to those players in the locker room that if you succeed, you will get rewarded by the Patriots. They have several players with expiring contracts or no guaranteed money left on their contracts. The last first-round selection to get a second contract from the Patriots was Donte Hightower back in 2016.

This signing is right in line with the “Packer Way,” which Eliot Wolf professes: Draft, Develop, and Re-sign!

Like this article?
Support Mark and buy him a coffee.

About Mark Morse

Merrimack Valley native and lifelong fan of the New England Patriots. My earliest memories of the Patriots were attending as a child with my dad, the off-season practice at Phillips Academy. I was at the Patriots game at Harvard Stadium in 1970 where Bob “Harpo” Gladieux was called out of the stands by the stadium announcer over the PA to play in the game. Analyzing the draft since ESPN first started to televise it in 1980 and former writer for the Lowell Sun Newspaper.

View all posts by Mark Morse