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2022 NEP Draft recap/thoughts

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BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
I received a few PM and @'s asking my thoughts and some questions so I'll try to provide both here. Mostly what I would have done and what I think. Tough one bc I liked all the prospects just not where we grabbed them but I'm over that for the most part and just trying to look at what they can do. I would have went in different directions in some cases but we stuck to our board and have conviction. Sometimes it's a bad thing, sometimes good but we give 0 ****s about what so & so thinks.

Sometimes in life you have to take a gamble and that's exactly what we did here. When you swing, swing for the fences. No one cares about singles and although doubles and triples are cool home runs change the game instantly. That's what we're hoping on here. Mostly with Strange and TT. We clearly think both can / will be top tier players at their position(s) from the draft capital we spent. Typical NEP draft class even though I might don't have picked them where they were selected.


How I grade prospects?
Simplest answer is that in 3-5-8 years I want look back and say "he should have went there" more or less. I watch film and get a grade. You can buy A22 and a lot of people trade film too. I watched over 500 games between buying, mostly people giving or trading with me. As well as some broadcast. I get a grade from that. I'll use different results from testing (40, 3C, shuttles & jumps) for different positions and get a grade that way. I'll average the two, tinker with the result and come out with one final grade. I've had some success and had a few people look into them. Always like when I get feedback.

2011-2022


PTP Board hit on 4 picks. A little disappointed bc I should of had the two Jones picks early on. Sometimes it's obvious, not so obvious. Sometimes I'll take someone off or add for a big reason, others not that much. It's a lot of feeling. I'm at home with 1% of the info the big shots have. I wish I had one of the old draftniks to join forces with concerning the PTP board.
Anyway guys like Steele ended up on there the day of or day before. Devin Lloyd and Marcus Jones were late late adds. Jack Jones was off/on in my head but I could never pull the trigger bc I thought we'd have gone elsewhere. Instead we went for two undersized aggressive corners with some versatility. We tend to go for those types (small quick fast with big verts) > size at CB
Ultimately disappointed but that's almost 30 (around 26-28) in 5 years including udfa guys. Need to do better next year, no way around it.


What would I have done?????
This was asked by more than a few people.

Simplest answer is go by my grades (above) but let's play through a few scenarios here ...

Trade back more - I might have disappointed fans even more by trading back into the 2nd RD all together at this point. I know a few guys I love will be there so give me extra picks. Either with Minnesota like GB did or we know GB wanted to trade back into the 1st for five years of Watson but couldn't so I might have seriously considered 53, 59 and a 3rd/4th for 29 or a 2023 3rd. Let's pretend this happened.

I would be targeting Booth, Hall, Ebiketie, Gordon, Mafe. My grades are above I could be miss. I'm flexible if it's close. Ive said and shown that but like sticking to my grades. Utimately I'd target one of them off the top of my head but my grades are above if I'm missing / forgetting someone graded higher. Let's say we get Booth, Ebiketie, Brisker or Gordon with 53. I'll go with Booth but I'd be happy with any of those when you factor in talent / need / value.

Now we have 54 and 59 to deal with.

Looking at the board and I'm smiling. We needed a WR, obviously drafted one. Who went 53 & 54?? Pierce and Moore. Both were in the same athletic testing spots Harry and Nixon were in, top 5 in terms of fits. So in terms of talent / need / value and fits both checked all boxes. I had a 2nd on both and think both will be very good so I'm happy with either here.

Again I might have someone higher that I'm forgetting but looking at how the board played out. This is a path I would have taken for sure.

At 59 we have we have Travis Jones, Ab Lucas, Muma, Raimann, Leal or even Tolbert. We just took a WR and have solid corp. Are we happy with our tackles guys? We have potential L/R replacements at good value here. If answers are "all set" which they seemed to be it's between Jones & Leal. Again I'm kind if doing this off the top of my head I could have someone rated higher but let's stuck with how the board played out / what's in front of me. I'm going Jones! I love Leal been following him since HS and had them graded similar but we need a 0/1t if we're running old school okie 34 so why not get a guy that graded out in the 2nd. Very athletic fatty that graded out higher than almost anyone in the IDL athletic testing. It was Leal, Jones, Booker, Hall, Hinton for my scores in terms of top 5 fits. So it's Jones or Leal. Again I love both, graded almost identical. Let's go with Jones.

So that's Andrew Booth, A Pierce/S Moore and Travis Jones. For our first three picks. Take your pick between Moore & Pierce (Top WR fits in terms if athletic testing - Austin, Pierce, Weston, Nailor, Melton)

I won't go through anymore rn bc I'm happy with guys like Strong, Zappe, Marcus Jones. I'll go through everyone at some point but if we ended up with Booth, Pierce/Moore, Jones, Marcus Jones, Pierre Strong and Zappe I'd be ecstatic.

Let's get in into the picks ...

Cole Strange: Why did we draft him???

Looks like an ideal Thuney replacement. We definitely have a type for each spot and we love smart, tough, versatile, athletic OL in general. Strange is literally one of the more athletic OL in the last 3 decades ... consider he would have hit a 10 if he jumped another inch or two. You can't get much more athletic and I can tell you it shows up on tape. Along his awareness and FBI.
20220428_232304.png

More evidence on his overall athleticism. Each coach has their preference and type and Tom Cable is no different. In particular he likes guys that hit a 31 Vert or better, Broad Jump 9 or better and a bench of at least 27. A "TEF" score was created by a Seahawks writer and the results are very interesting.

"Confirmed 2022 TEF scores

Cole Strange — 3.42
Bernhard Raimann — 3.37
Zion Johnson — 3.33

Nick Zakelj — 2.98
Alec Lindstrom — 2.95
Marcus McKethan — 2.94
Dawson Deaton — 2.82
Abraham Lucas — 2.73
Cordell Volson — 2.63
Zach Thomas — 2.48
Kenyon Green — 2.46
Obinna Eze — 24.5
Bill Dunkle — 2.45

Projected 2022 TEF scores

Zach Tom — 3.33
Sean Rhyan — 3.10
Matt Waletzko — 3.08
Logan Bruss — 3.08
Kellen Diesch — 3.07
Luke Wattenburg — 3.06

Dohnovan West — 2.96
Trevor Penning — 2.95
Chasen Hines — 2.95
Ja’Tyre Carter — 2.93
Charles Cross — 2.92
Austin Deculus — 2.91
Ickey Ekonwu — 2.90
Blaise Andries — 2.89
Chris Paul — 2.86
Andrew Rupcich — 2.85
Dylan Parham — 2.82
Joshua Ezeudu — 2.80
Braxton Jones — 2.79
Spencer Burford — 2.77
Justin Shaffer — 2.76
Tyler Smith — 2.73
Max Mitchell — 2.71
Luke Tenuta — 2.69
Cade Mays — 2.64
Nicholas Petit-Frere — 2.62
Luke Fortner — 2.58
Andrew Steuber — 2.57
Thayer Munford — 2.57
Marquis Hayes — 2.56
Vederian Lowe — 2.56
Darian Kinnard — 2.54
Tyrese Robinson — 2.48
Ed Ingram — 2.47
Myron Cunningham — 2.36

How does this compare to previous combines?

Players scoring a 3.00 or more:

2016 — 6
2017 — 3
2018 — 7
2019 — 8
2020 — 8
2021 — No combine
2022 — 9 (projection)

Players scoring at least a 2.85:

2016 — 9
2017 — 8
2018 — 8
2019 — 15
2020 — 15
2021 — No combine
2022 — 22 (projection)

Is it an explosive offensive line class?

Provided the projections hold up, then yes it’s a more explosive O-line class than previous years.

In particular — Cole Strange, Bernhard Raimann and Zion Johnson should see their draft stock significantly benefit from their scores. Players who test as well as they have today generally gain a significant boost in terms of stock. Raimann’s short arms (sub-33 inches) are a concern but he has shown a top-level testing profile at the combine.

Here’s the combined top-10 testers from 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022 (in bold) for comparisons sake:

Iosua Opeta — 3.62
Jason Spriggs — 3.54
Braden Smith — 3.52
Tristan Wirfs — 3.47
Cole Strange — 3.42
Bernhard Raimann — 3.37
Zion Johnson — 3.33
Zach Tom — 3.33 (p)

Kolton Miller — 3.31
Connor McGovern: 3.29
Hakeem Adeniji — 3.27
Cesar Ruiz — 3.25
Forrest Lamp — 3.23
Phil Haynes — 3.22
Wyatt Teller — 3.22

However, for the sake of comparison, here’s last years ‘top testers’ compared to the 2022 group (in bold):

Brady Christensen — 3.72
Sam Cosmi — 3.57
Cole Strange — 3.42
Kendrick Green — 3.42
Rashawn Slater — 3.37
Bernhard Raimann — 3.37
Spencer Brown — 3.36
Quinn Meinerz — 3.34
Zion Johnson — 3.33
Zach Tom — 3.33 (p)

Teven Jenkins — 3.33
Alijah Vera-Tucker — 3.31
Drew Dalman — 3.31
Trey Smith — 3.30
Sadarius Hutcherson — 3.29
Creed Humphrey — 3.25
Landon Young — 3.24
Alex Leatherwood — 3.16
Sean Rhyan — 3.10 (p)
Dan Moore — 3.08
Matt Waletzko — 3.08 (p)
Logan Bruss — 3.08 (p)
Kellen Diesch — 3.07 (p)
Luke Wattenburg — 3.07 (p)

Penei Sewell — 3.04
Dillon Radunz — 3.04
Brendan Jaimes — 3.03
Liam Eichenburg — 3.00

As noted in our combine preview, TEF is not an attempt to determine who is a good or bad offensive linemen. It’s merely a calculation to judge explosive traits.

Here are the top-10 wTEF scores from 2016-2022 combined:

Tristan Wirfs — 111.0
Braden Smith — 110.9
Iousa Opeta — 109.0
Cole Strange — 105.0
Spriggs, Jason —- 104.9
Phil Haynes — 103.7
Isaiah Wilson — 103.6
Zion Johnson — 103.4
Austin Jackson — 103.4
John Simpson — 102.7
Kolton Miller — 102.3
Bernhard Raimann — 102.1
Scott Quessenberry — 101.4
McGovern, Conner —- 101.4
Zach Tom — 101.2 (p)
Marcus McKethan — 100.0

Cesar Ruiz — 99.8
Forrest Lamp —- 99.8
Nico Siragusa —- 99.8
Quenton Nelson — 99.8
Sean Rhyan — 99.5 (p)
Will Hernandez — 99.4
Hakeem Adeniji — 98.8
Andre Dillard — 98.6
Ezra Cleveland — 98.3
Matt Peart — 98.0
Chris Lindstrom — 97.9
Damien Lewis — 97.1
Teller Wyatt — 96.9
Chasen Hines — 96.5 (p)
Garrett Bradbury — 96.4
Ifedi, Germain —- 96.1
Matt Waletzko — 96.1 (p)
Trevor Penning — 95.9 (p)

Kaleb McGary — 95.7
Isaac Asiata —- 95.6
John Molchon — 95.5
Logan Bruss — 95.2 (p)
Max Scharping — 94.8
Shell, Brandon —- 94.4
Connor Williams — 94.1
Nick Zakelj — 94.1
Vaitai, Halapoulivaati —- 93.8
Nembot, Stephane —- 93.6
Austin Deculus — 93.4 (p)
Elgton Jenkins — 93.3
Michael Jordan — 93.3
Dahl, Joe —- 93.2
Joe Haeg —- 93.0
Erik McCoy — 92.4
Kellen Diesch — 92.4 (p)
Chris Paul — 92.4 (p)

Thuney, Joe —- 91.6
Robertson, Dominique —- 91.5
Luke Wattenburg — 91.5 (p)
Taylor Moton —- 91.2
Ja’Tyre Carter — 91.1 (p)"

You can read more here's the link ...


So it's rather obvious why we drafted him. Dude is super athletic, smart, tough with a little versatility. He's a G 100% but he's got some versatility in a pinch. He ended up OG6 or 7 I believe just missing out on a 2nd from me. And in terms of feeling the market, one guard was taken between 21-58 I believe and that was Strange. So we played that part correctly. I'm guessing most had 2nd/3rd on Strange, like me. And a few, let's say 6-10 teams had a 1st or 1st/2nd on Strange. We'll see real results you can judge in a 2-4 years, hopefully right away. I think most of the feedback, 60-70% is no one knowing who he is and the rest arguing positional value or that he didn’t warrant a 1st.

what I had to say ..

"one of the more aware and reactive players i watched. Showed good patience but was always quick to ID pressure, handle manipulated pressure / pick up rushers. Whether it's pre snap or delayed he's very heady and again quick to react. Heads always moving but well aware of his original assignment. Never lost in space or under pressure.

plays with and maintains great technique on zone runs. Great job gaining position through contact or with his athleticism. Very quick to initiate contact and use his plus body control. Initiating first contact is always key in the trenches and he's great at punching first. Plus grip strength. Quick choppy feet are a plus here. Isn't the strongest guy in terms of core / raw strength.

Always brings the energy and fight.

Very efficient player in his movements and steps. Looks like an athlete but is a step ahead mentally most of the time in where he wants to go.

Big time potential with his lateral movement on stretch, screen, 2nd/3rd level. Quick, can move, locate. Great job working the best angles to get where he wants to go. This could be a sign we're moving to more zone stuff. He excels there.

Has to get stronger. Has to gain some core strength.

Possible C in a pinch.

Great job moving / pulling, locating targets, climbing to the second level. Can move vertically and laterally. He's textbook on combos same foot/hip/shoulder.

Definitely could be a little more nuanced in some areas but that's experience. He's a quick learner.

Has experience at T & C

Had a 3rd (just missed a 2nd) on him so this was a surprise for sure. Love the prospect but definitely a lot earlier than expected. He was on my PTP Board. Actually just brought him up. He tested out very highly, top 5 for what we like at IOL."


Conclusion - Although I wouldn't have selected him, Strange should be given the benefit of the doubt by fans. The Pats love power on the right side and athleticism on the left. If Thuney and Mankins had a baby it would be Strange. I had a grade of 7.73 on Thuney, 7.80 on Strange. If you look at Mockdraftable's website one of the comps to Strange is Thuney. He was on the PTP Board. Uber-athletic high floor player that fits us to a T.
I get the fact that it's not an exciting pick to some. I get what happened with Shaq and that situation. I understand the optics around the pick. All that acknowledged Strange is a Pat now, a damm good prospect and deserves our support. He didn't draft himself. We'll have plenty of time to dissect other prospects around that pick, how they've done in the years to come.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Why did we draft Tyquan Thornton???

TT is the most important pick in the draft for us by far and will be one of the more looked at picks in the next 2-3 years for sure! I had a high 4th on him, barely missing a 3rd. He was a bigger reach than Strange imo. Like I mentioned in the OP we swung for the fences here and this is the pick that everyone will be looking back on, trust me. We're hoping for a WR1 here. Some people are mentioning Jameson Williams-lite but I think we saw Brandin Cooks in TT and think that's the role we'll use him in. Cooks was a shifty speedster that could stretch the field vertically, obviously but was a nice weapon alleviating some pressure from the MOF throughout his career bc he could shift mid-gear without losing speed. So I decided to compare the two.

Cook 4.33 - 1.5 10 split - 36 vert - 6.76 3C - 120 Broad Jump. TT 4.28 - 36.5 - 130 Broad Jump.

Now I don't see the ability to shift, give head/body fakes at 100 mph, keeping top speed while moving, as consistently as Cooks but he can absolutely do it. It's just not as consistent, clean and he doesn't have the experience running as many routes. That said I believe that's what we're envisioning here. We definitely didn't trade up to top 50 for another WR or super ST.

What I had to say

"sport athlete in HS. Track background, legit burner that can fly. From Florida

Big time speed with different gears. Different type of speed that makes DB think. Most impressive attribute I noticed here was his body control and balance. He can shift, turn and move without losing any mph. Big time blazer. Not the quickest it takes a second to hit top gear but he's got legit high 4.2, low 4.3 speed.

No problems getting out his breaks but he has to get stronger he's tiny. Plus stop & start ability though. Fluid athlete with good COD. Again plus balance and body control.

Fiesty, tough blocker, plus stalk blocker. Very good tracking ability, remains calm and poised throughout this phase and can make a play in a the air now & then but again he's smaller at 180.

Good hands but could get stronger at catch point. They're small so he has to get stronger there. You can see it effect deep shots in close quarters at times.

Underutilized on offense and could be a deep threat from the slot as well as on in-breaking routes. Used primarily as a vertical threat. He could definitely handle more on his plate. Natural ST/gunner, day one. Good spacial and field awareness, he's alert and ready all times.

He has to add more details in his route running though. Head/body fakes, working off leverage, changing up his tempo, stacking defenders. Route running needs some work for sure. Wasn't exposed to a full tree and might not at this level bc of his size. He absolutely knows what to do, natural separation but he has to make the routes his own. A lot of this comes with experience.

I had a high 4th on him. Again surprised where we took not necessarily the prospect."

I'd like to see more nuance after this summer and especially going forward from Thornton. He shows the ability to deceive and lie in his routes. He needs to be more consistent though. I'd like to see more body manipulation like head / eye, shoulder fakes. Like to see better work at the top of his route. Obviously has to get stronger. I know he'll never be a killer out there but it would go a long way with things like working through contact and fighting for the play / making those tough rec.


Conclusion - When you look at the draft, who we targeted. Who we selected and the collective. Thornton is the "upside or ceiling" in the draft for us in terms of positional value, effecting a game. A big time WR > big time G in terms if effectiveness. We might get lucky with Strong. I really like him. Had a solid 3rd and he'll do well in our scheme but TT is really deciding on how high this draft grade is. If he hits this is a whole different story. A lot rides on him being great. I'm talking 70+/800+/7 consistently across the board. The Pats think they hit big with TT and I'm hoping they prove me wrong in terms of value. He's not a typical WR we'd go after that early. Lacks play strength, yac ability, ability to make you miss. Inconsistent in certain areas. We'll see how this goes. Not my pick if I'm being honest but we'll see.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Why did we pick Marcus Jones??
Jon Jones replacement with big upside as a return man. One of the better returners you'll see recently. Fits our type in terms of being aggressive, knows how to play the play and brings added versatility in both ST & O for a few snaps.


What I think??
Not sure where my grades were in terms of the actual board at this point. So not sure I'd taken Jones here or if someone was higher. I think I still had a few choices with a higher grade but I had a high 3rd on him and love the fit. Worried about his size for sure. Bigger experienced WR will have their way with him in the slow but he's definitely got value in the short area against guys like Waddle. Or guys that can go deep from the slot.


Love his juice! He's got some gad an able to hit top speed very quick. His burst and closing speed are extremely impressive and important and he utilize s both very well in different areas.


His burst allows him to get on top of you quick where his size all of a sudden is an advantage when you're trying to tackle him in returns. Hes also very smooth and able to change direction with relative ease. He's able to cut shift without losing much speed. Plays fast tough and without fear. Solid sure tackler that will lay you out if he gets the chance. Closing speed shows up on in-breaking routes, deep routes. Displays nice patience and timing on in-breaking stuff to go across body or over shoulder to break up a pass. Very impressive timing on breaking up passes in general. Great technique and aggressiveness. Rips through the chest like with practice practically slices an opponents front side trying to break up a pass. Smooth efficient low back pedal. Has some flexibility to play outside.


Conclusion - He's a typical Pats CB and we got him with good value considering his return skills that are needed. Add in his potential as a gadget player on offense. Maybe 150-200 yards and 2 TD on offense total? Or his ability to play outside in a pinch and he's worth a shot in the 3rd. Again I might have had some prospects higher but he's got a 3rd and was on the PTP Board so I can't complain here (I'll let @captain stone do that for everyone lol).
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
I've been on Zappe for a while now. Wasn't heavily recruited at all but he was a name among weirdos like me (I don't even follow it that closely especially not anymore but have a few friends that are lifelong hardcore nuts) that follow HS football. Put up big #'s, elevated his game in big games when he had to in both HS/College. Story of his career. He's put up some huge games when the competition is the best. He's not this big athlete but smart, tough, he's a gamer that'll pick up unaccounted for yards. 3770/37 passing - 633/15 rushing.

college
FBS 2020 vs La Tech - 37 / 58 for 406 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
FBS 2020 vs Texas Tech - 30 / 49 for 567 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
FBS 2020 vs North Texas - 39 / 62 for 480 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
FBS 2019 vs UTEP - 27 of 37 for 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

More than clear he's accurate, has produced at both levels and listening to those around him, watching him, he's smart as hell. He's got a reputation as a gamer who guys gravitate towards. That's always a good thing, especially at that position ...

“He’s one of the best I’ve been around,” said Kittley, who was assistant quarterbacks coach at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsbury before coming to HBU. “This offense is predicated around him and what he can do. Leading us into the right plays, getting us in the right checks.

“If he sees something he doesn’t like, he’s done a phenomenal job of seeing the defense and getting us into some plays that we need to be in.”

"While college football might be overlooking Zappe, the next level is not. NFL scouts from the Raiders, Packers and Seahawks have already started doing their due-diligence – and those are three franchises that know something about quarterbacks."

"However, his best endorsement might be from Kittley, who came to Houston Baptist after working closely with NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and Davis Webb at Texas Tech. He knows what professional quarterbacks look like."

“He can do it all,” Kittley said. “He’s light on his feet, he’s got great pocket awareness, and really just being able to see him operate an offense...there’s zero doubt in my mind that Bailey Zappe is going to be an NFL guy.”

“First thing that I noticed about Bailey was not his arm strength or anything, but just how smart he is,” HBU receiver Jerreth Sterns said. “He’s just real smart and it was like separating from all the other quarterbacks – he knows the checks to make, knows the defense they’re in. That’s when I realized he was going to be something serious."

Ok so the kid can play, produce and has a presence about him. He's limited but smart, mentally tough and coaches and players love him. And when I say produce everyone has heard of the #'s by now. They're insane. Small school, weak comp, blah blah blah. The kid has made it happen with a limited arm, not the "prototype" body. Actually looks like Mac imo with his helmet on.

Look some of us will just disagree on Zappe and that's fine. I just got done saying how much I value ST & BU QB and it's not something I say that sounds good. I believe it. Go ask the Chargers, Bills, Vikings (how many successful teams have bad ST?) how much ST matter. If you're a Pats fan I really shouldn't have to tell you how much we value in what those guys do.
If you're a top tier ST player or BU QB material. I'll take you in the 3rd/4th with a smile!!
Those guys stick their necks out for the team every game. Battle & fight for field position while sprinting 40 yards down the field. Help run the scout team. Help others learn the playbook, on the practice field and film room. All that stuff and more determines whether you're a playoff team or not. Again go ask the Chargers if ST matter they've missed the playoffs at least twice directly bc of ST blunders.

If you're 8-6, near the end of the season and you're starting QB goes down. Would you pay a 3rd or 4th for a competent QB to win 2/3, 2/4 games?

If that situation happened last December who would you rather? Stidham or Brissett?? I bet JB could come in, go up on the board and explain our whole offense right now. Neither is a legit starter for a season but you just know the difference, it jumps out at you.

I had a 3rd on Zappe, it's possible I'm too high but I like his chances as a BU QB with a small chance to start, you want him in your QB room. Send Stidham packing. Roll with 3 QB this year and move on from Hoyer when you can (he's 100% staying this year).


More words on Zappe ...

Hard worker known for his intensity, confidence, work ethic and ability rise up as an overachiever. Again coaches, staff, players everyone will love him.

Love his arm talent even though he's limited in some areas. Plus accuracy, touch & placement in short/intermediate areas, tight spaces. Great feel for timing, changes up arm angles and speed on the ball. His general arm strength is limited but he can make almost every throw and has some gas. Tight sideline or MOF, deep bucket shots, fastball, switch up angles. He can do it and excel in this offense in particular bc of his mental and physical traits. He'll come up short on some deep some and if he isn't set will lose a little mph but his arm works here. He can crave you up though.

Extremely accurate when he gets in a zone. Has a gunslinger mentality.

Love his poise, presence and awareness in the pocket. He's not a magician but he's excellent at doing the small stuff while staying calm and alert of his surroundings and downfield. He absolutely needs a top tier OL but can manipulate and work a pocket.

Plus decision making and FBI. He's someone who has improved. Wants to get coached and get better.

He'll need time to adjust to life in the league in terms of playback but he's shown he's able to manipulate defenses with his eyes, fakes, can hold defenders. He can work the entire field, 2-3 man concepts to one side. He'll need someone to help guide him but he's a great student.

Mechanics needs work. Mostly lower half. Upper is crisp tight proper form. Lower half weight transfer needs for consistency. Base is too far, too narrow, too inconsistent. A little work but not a project. I watch both upper & lower body separately on all prospects for this reason. He's a little wonky but they're fixable. It'll take a minute but I don't think it's a "huge" fix.

One thing I try not to do is be a coach or X&O expert. I'm already a pretend scout lol but I always try to have a really good understanding of what a prospect is trying to accomplish on certain plays, stretches, games, year to year. Zappe ran his offense to a T and I believe this offense is for him. He's not anywhere ready now but there's some nice tools to work with.

Jimmy G lite is a decent comp. Doesn't have the quickest release like Jimmy or efficient feet but he's close enough imo. Definitely not saying he'll eventually be a starter like Jimmy or take the same path. Just in terms of play style.

Accuracy, touch placement




 
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Mike the Brit

Minuteman Target
PatsFans.com Supporter
Thanks, BGC. So here's a question.

Assuming that you were picking for the Patriots in exactly the slots that they actually picked (that's picks: 29, 50, 85, 121, 127, 137, 183, 200, 210, 245) whom would you have taken of the players available?
 

AQPE

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Great stuff, looking forward to the rest.

Regarding Cole Strange, I’ll say right away that I was shocked and disappointed Thursday night. By Friday morning though I was awakening to the realization that my reaction was based mostly on being influenced by the opinions of the media gasbags and such who clearly didn’t have anything close to accurate information about how BB and his team are sizing things up. This includes whomever it is that sets the ratings for the mock draft sims I had so much fun with the last couple of months.

Another thought that came to me later when I did a little comparing of Strange with Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green. Just based on their stats and specs, I don’t see why Strange was considered so inferior especially to Green. I have yet to see anyone criticize those picks which were several spots higher than Strange. Why are they perceived to be so much better than Strange? Is it only about the competition those guys faced at BC and TAMU versus Chattanooga? OK that’s in their favor I guess but how much?

I suspect that the reaction to the Strange pick, and then the Thornton pick, is a lot more about the “marketing” of those media “draft experts” than it is about a lot else. The Strange pick called into question how much insight they are really offering people who get as interested as I was about the draft. That’s bad for business for them for sure. Watching the draft on TV was “appointment viewing” for me for a long time, I used to take a day off from work for it, but have just followed it online the past 5 years after getting sick of the way it is presented on both BSPN and NFL Network.

Was Tyquan Thornton so much more of a reach at 50 than say Josh Paschal at 46? I saw more than one rating for Paschal that also slotted him in the later rounds but somehow nobody’s is squealing about that pick. Skyy Moore wasn’t a reach at 54 but Thornton was an incredible reach apparently even though he is 4 inches taller, 0.2 seconds faster in the 40, better vertical jump, better broad jump, didn’t post a poor 3-cone like Moore did and faced a lot better competition at Baylor than Moore did at Western Michigan.

To be fair, I do think that at a high level those folks do a decent job, but not when it comes to the Pats. They do seem to be pretty accurate about say the first 3 rounds so far as the percentage of guys they predicted would go there versus who actually went there. But when it comes to the Pats it seems so much less accurate. Just another reason for them to disdain BB, he doesn’t allow them to predict what he will do so they can’t crow about having some “insider” view of the Pats when it comes to the draft.
 

BaconGrundleCandy

#1 Mac Jones fan
PatsFans.com Supporter
Have to run out for a few errands, just got off work. Reserved for Bailey Zappe.

I've been on Zappe for a while now. Wasn't heavily recruited at all but he was a name among weirdos like me (I don't even follow it that closely especially not anymore but have a few friends that are lifelong hardcore nuts) that follow HS football. Put up big #'s, elevated his game in big games when he had to in both HS/College. Story of his career. He's put up some huge games when the competition is the best. He's not this big athlete but smart, tough, he's a gamer that'll pick up unaccounted for yards. 3770/37 passing - 633/15 rushing.

college
FBS 2020 vs La Tech - 37 / 58 for 406 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT
FBS 2020 vs Texas Tech - 30 / 49 for 567 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT
FBS 2020 vs North Texas - 39 / 62 for 480 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
FBS 2019 vs UTEP - 27 of 37 for 300 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

More than clear he's accurate, has produced at both levels and listening to those around him, watching him, he's smart as hell. He's got a reputation as a gamer who guys gravitate towards. That's always a good thing, especially at that position ...

“He’s one of the best I’ve been around,” said Kittley, who was assistant quarterbacks coach at Texas Tech under Kliff Kingsbury before coming to HBU. “This offense is predicated around him and what he can do. Leading us into the right plays, getting us in the right checks.

“If he sees something he doesn’t like, he’s done a phenomenal job of seeing the defense and getting us into some plays that we need to be in.”

"While college football might be overlooking Zappe, the next level is not. NFL scouts from the Raiders, Packers and Seahawks have already started doing their due-diligence – and those are three franchises that know something about quarterbacks."

"However, his best endorsement might be from Kittley, who came to Houston Baptist after working closely with NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes and Davis Webb at Texas Tech. He knows what professional quarterbacks look like."

“He can do it all,” Kittley said. “He’s light on his feet, he’s got great pocket awareness, and really just being able to see him operate an offense...there’s zero doubt in my mind that Bailey Zappe is going to be an NFL guy.”

“First thing that I noticed about Bailey was not his arm strength or anything, but just how smart he is,” HBU receiver Jerreth Sterns said. “He’s just real smart and it was like separating from all the other quarterbacks – he knows the checks to make, knows the defense they’re in. That’s when I realized he was going to be something serious."

Ok so the kid can play, produce and has a presence about him. He's limited but smart, mentally tough and coaches and players love him. And when I say produce everyone has heard of the #'s by now. They're insane. Small school, weak comp, blah blah blah. The kid has made it happen with a limited arm, not the "prototype" body. Actually looks like Mac imo with his helmet on.

Look some of us will just disagree on Zappe and that's fine. I just got done saying how much I value ST & BU QB and it's not something I say that sounds good. I believe it. Go ask the Chargers, Bills, Vikings (how many successful teams have bad ST?) how much ST matter. If you're a Pats fan I really shouldn't have to tell you how much we value in what those guys do.
If you're a top tier ST player or BU QB material. I'll take you in the 3rd/4th with a smile!!
Those guys stick their necks out for the team every game. Battle & fight for field position while sprinting 40 yards down the field. Help run the scout team. Help others learn the playbook, on the practice field and film room. All that stuff and more determines whether you're a playoff team or not. Again go ask the Chargers if ST matter they've missed the playoffs at least twice directly bc of ST blunders.

If you're 8-6, near the end of the season and you're starting QB goes down. Would you pay a 3rd or 4th for a competent QB to win 2/3, 2/4 games?

If that situation happened last December who would you rather? Stidham or Brissett?? I bet JB could come in, go up on the board and explain our whole offense right now. Neither is a legit starter for a season but you just know the difference, it jumps out at you.

I had a 3rd on Zappe, it's possible I'm too high but I like his chances as a BU QB with a small chance to start, you want him in your QB room. Send Stidham packing. Roll with 3 QB this year and move on from Hoyer when you can (he's 100% staying this year).


More words on Zappe ...

Hard worker known for his intensity, confidence, work ethic and ability rise up as an overachiever. Again coaches, staff, players everyone will love him.

Love his arm talent even though he's limited in some areas. Plus accuracy, touch & placement in short/intermediate areas, tight spaces. Great feel for timing, changes up arm angles and speed on the ball. His general arm strength is limited but he can make almost every throw and has some gas. Tight sideline or MOF, deep bucket shots, fastball, switch up angles. He can do it and excel in this offense in particular bc of his mental and physical traits. He'll come up short on some deep some and if he isn't set will lose a little mph but his arm works here. He can crave you up though.

Extremely accurate when he gets in a zone. Has a gunslinger mentality.

Love his poise, presence and awareness in the pocket. He's not a magician but he's excellent at doing the small stuff while staying calm and alert of his surroundings and downfield. He absolutely needs a top tier OL but can manipulate and work a pocket.

Plus decision making and FBI. He's someone who has improved. Wants to get coached and get better.

He'll need time to adjust to life in the league in terms of playback but he's shown he's able to manipulate defenses with his eyes, fakes, can hold defenders. He can work the entire field, 2-3 man concepts to one side. He'll need someone to help guide him but he's a great student.

Mechanics needs work. Mostly lower half. Upper is crisp tight proper form. Lower half weight transfer needs for consistency. Base is too far, too narrow, too inconsistent. A little work but not a project. I watch both upper & lower body separately on all prospects for this reason. He's a little wonky but they're fixable. It'll take a minute but I don't think it's a "huge" fix.

One thing I try not to do is be a coach or X&O expert. I'm already a pretend scout lol but I always try to have a really good understanding of what a prospect is trying to accomplish on certain plays, stretches, games, year to year. Zappe ran his offense to a T and I believe this offense is for him. He's not anywhere ready now but there's some nice tools to work with.

Jimmy G lite is a decent comp. Doesn't have the quickest release like Jimmy or efficient feet but he's close enough imo. Definitely not saying he'll eventually be a starter like Jimmy or take the same path. Just in terms of play style.

Accuracy, touch placement




Zappe is up.
 

masterbouncer

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
NFL Picks Grand Champ!
Thanks, BGC. So here's a question.

Assuming that you were picking for the Patriots in exactly the slots that they actually picked (that's picks: 29, 50, 85, 121, 127, 137, 183, 200, 210, 245) whom would you have taken of the players available?
I like the question, hope BGC finds time to come up with his "draft" just out of curiosity
 

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