What do we do at CB if Logan Ryan leaves?

[RobertWeathers]

You are correct, my memory of the deal was off.

Yea it was for IMO reasonable dollars for a 3-down DT. He had a very good year for da Bears. IIRC the issue here was playing time and obviously the money was a little less. Hicks didn't want to be a rotational guy.

There's still nothing to support the claim made that I was replying too, but I was off on Hicks' deal.

Oh about how teams need to be wary of Pats FAs? Yea. Its not just the Pats. Free agency in general is a risky proposition as there are more busts than success stories.

 

[mikey m]

Last season Hicks signed a massive deal with Chicago based on a half season of productivity with the Pats, after trading for him in season. This year the Pats traded for Eric Rowe and Kyle Van Noy late in the process. What gives you the impression that people don't want to pay Pats players or trade with them? There is actually no evidence of that, in fact just the opposite.

There's a difference between shuffling the bottoms of the rosters, sending a draft pick for a player that a team has already given up on, or the Hicks deal which was modest money for what he is and paying 10-11M for the pats #2 corner which some of you are acting like is a given at this point. There may be little evidence to support other GMs being paranoid about dealing with BB (I based that mostly on an interview I saw with Mangini) but there's even less evidence of what you guys are suggesting.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I see two options.

We could go the Laissez Faire route, and hope that Rowe continues his solid play and that Cyrus makes big progression, which is risky.

I think it's more likely we sign an older get CB, though not overpaying for one. I think Leon Hall would be a good option on the market right now, but Jason McCourty and Jonathan Joseph would be great options if they hit the market.

Thoughts?

Ryan is a solid player but he will get overpaid in free agency, so he's as good as gone.

Now Jason McCourty would be a dream addition. To see the McCourty brothers play together on the same field? But he would be most likely out of our price range. Most likely we just draft another corner and play on. Same as BB has always done it.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

There's a difference between shuffling the bottoms of the rosters, sending a draft pick for a player that a team has already given up on, or the Hicks deal which was modest money for what he is and paying 10-11M for the pats #2 corner which some of you are acting like is a given at this point. There may be little evidence to support other GMs being paranoid about dealing with BB (I based that mostly on an interview I saw with Mangini) but there's even less evidence of what you guys are suggesting.

I never suggested a price range for Logan Ryan, I was merely pointing out that we can not rule out his getting a big deal because GMs have finally gotten wise to this Belichick fella. I am asserting that many GMs are indeed quite dumb, and that no evidence would suggest that teams are reluctant to trade with the Pats. The Bears gave Martellus Bennett to the Pats, and he's not a roster churn type player. I wouldn't be taking much of what Mangini has to say any more seriously than I would any other former nfl guy who doesn't have Pats' corrections as I tend to think he's probably not on Bill's share-stuff-with list. All I'm saying is betting on 31 other GMs exercising fiscal prudence, in a league where there are actual dunces in the job, is not a bet I'd make.

 

[mikey m]

I never suggested a price range for Logan Ryan, I was merely pointing out that we can not rule out his getting a big deal because GMs have finally gotten wise to this Belichick fella. I am asserting that many GMs are indeed quite dumb, and that no evidence would suggest that teams are reluctant to trade with the Pats. The Bears gave Martellus Bennett to the Pats, and he's not a roster churn type player. I wouldn't be taking much of what Mangini has to say any more seriously than I would any other former nfl guy who doesn't have Pats' corrections as I tend to think he's probably not on Bill's share-stuff-with list. All I'm saying is betting on 31 other GMs exercising fiscal prudence, in a league where there are actual dunces in the job, is not a bet I'd make.

My argument was with those who assume Ryan is gone because he's going to get over 10M on the market. I don't see it. I see him getting offered 8-9 max which means pats can keep him around for ~7.5 per if they so choose, IMO. I'll leave it at that

 

[supafly]

Arrington signed a 4 year $16m deal in 2013 with a salary cap of $123m. Roughly 3.25% of the cap. It is estimated that the 2017 salary cap will be $168m.

If Arrington signed his deal in 2017 then the exact same deal in terms of proportion of the cap would be 4 years $22m. Ryan is a much better player than Arrington in my view, and I would happily pay him more.

A better comparison is say, Leigh Bodden, who signed a 4 year $22m deal in 2010 (uncapped year but there was an unwritten agreement to stay within the salary cap of about $120m). His deal was therefore 4.58% of the cap, and in today's money roughly 4 years $31m.

Now the Patriots probably regret both those deals in retrospect, but in my view Ryan is a better player than both, so his current market worth is as least the value of Bodden's deal, and probably slightly more. Then if you take into account the free agency premium and the lack of corners, you can probably add 10-20% to the price of the deal.

Looks like the Arrington deal was only 4m a year, AAV, @Ivan. Apologies for stating otherwise. Looking back in retrospect, we all did a hell of a lot of whining over a 4/16 deal.

So, that changes things a bit. The old 4m a year would now be equal to 5.5m a year, whereas I was thinking it was already somewhere around that in 2013. Either way, I still think the Pats would be comfortable with an offer in the 7m dollar a year range, but it may not be enough for him to stay. I hope he does, though.

 

[Ivan]

Looks like the Arrington deal was only 4m a year, AAV, @Ivan. Apologies for stating otherwise. Looking back in retrospect, we all did a hell of a lot of whining over a 4/16 deal.

So, that changes things a bit. The old 4m a year would now be equal to 5.5m a year, whereas I was thinking it was already somewhere around that in 2013. Either way, I still think the Pats would be comfortable with an offer in the 7m dollar a year range, but it may not be enough for him to stay. I hope he does, though.

Makes sense. I thought last years free agency really altered the landscape as average to good players were paid like great players so I really wasn't that surprised when Belichick moved Jones and Collins because their price tags went off the chart. It will be interesting to see how Belichick adapts to the new parameters because I could see him paying a player like Ryan 5-6 million a season but 7 million, while reasonable in this market still seems like top flight money in the Patriots internal salary structure, which imo is more how Belichick sets value. I'd like to see Ryan stay but I just don't see him passing up the money that should be there for him. I also think length of deals is going to become shorter for them in this market, as committing 7+ million for 4-5 years is not going to happen for anyone other than their very best players (e.g. ..Hightower). I think they will be offering more 3 year deals than before and that could become an issue. We'll see, should be interesting?

I'm really looking more at the releases than the free agent market as the latter is really weak imo. I would much rather see them spend money on guys like Butler than to see them go out on the market for higher $$$free agents.

 

[Jimke]

Makes sense. I thought last years free agency really altered the landscape as average to good players were paid like great players so I really wasn't that surprised when Belichick moved Jones and Collins because their price tags went off the chart. It will be interesting to see how Belichick adapts to the new parameters because I could see him paying a player like Ryan 5-6 million a season but 7 million, while reasonable in this market still seems like top flight money in the Patriots internal salary structure, which imo is more how Belichick sets value. I'd like to see Ryan stay but I just don't see him passing up the money that should be there for him. I also think length of deals is going to become shorter for them in this market, as committing 7+ million for 4-5 years is not going to happen for anyone other than their very best players (e.g. ..Hightower). I think they will be offering more 3 year deals than before and that could become an issue. We'll see, should be interesting?

I'm really looking more at the releases than the free agent market as the latter is really weak imo. I would much rather see them spend money on guys like Butler than to see them go out on the market for higher $$$free agents.

Speaking of Butler, I can see numerous teams spending a first round pick for a pro bowl quality player. The Patriots might want to re-think the first round tender and
make a legitimate long term offer. Otherwise, the Jones boys may be playing a lot
this year.

 

[PatsFan2]

Great point Jimke on Butler we haven't drafted well at CB since Ryan who is decent not great. Butler is not even in his prime yet. Patriots should lock up Butler and Hightower long term they have the $$$$ they are core guys long term.

 

[Jimke]

Great point Jimke on Butler we haven't drafted well at CB since Ryan who is decent not great. Butler is not even in his prime yet. Patriots should lock up Butler and Hightower long term they have the $$$$ they are core guys long term.

With 60 million cap space, losing either of these players would be inexcusable. They
are the heart of our defense.

 

[stinkypete]

I expect Ryan to receive offers in the $8 million range. To anyone who thinks that's unreasonable, look at some recent cornerback contracts.

Byron Maxwell - $10.5 million average
Janoris Jenkins - $12.5 million average
Sean Smith - 9.5 million average
David Amercon - $8.7 million average
Kareem Jackson - $8.5 million average

Ryan has arguably outperformed most of the names on this list over the past two years. The CB market is wacky. A free agent starter now costs $10 million and an elite starter costs over $12 million.

 

[zimmy]

I was trying to point out for comparison that Bodden was given the equivalent of almost 8m a year in todays money. He was essentially a number 2 corner.

$10m a year deals are not what they used to be. No longer the preserve of elite players. The best comparison for Ryan is Robert Alford - the Falcons no 2 corner, who received something like a 4 year $38m contract. That has to be the ball park for Ryan I suspect. As I said in my previous post, I would estimate his value to be around $8.5m a year, and that he will receive somewhere north of that - probably $38-44m over 4 years.

 

[Deus Irae]

Find a legit CB2

This year's schedule is setting up to be one where the Patriots are going to need 4 legit CBs.

 

[Uptown]

Beef up the Pass Rush..

 

[supafly]

My argument was with those who assume Ryan is gone because he's going to get over 10M on the market. I don't see it. I see him getting offered 8-9 max which means pats can keep him around for ~7.5 per if they so choose, IMO. I'll leave it at that

I agree with you that Ryan isn't likely to receive a 10m dollar a year deal, but I do think there's a night and day difference between him getting a 9m dollar a year offer and a 7.5m dollar a year offer.

If "our" 7.5 is equal to everyone else's 9, Ryan could leave close to 8m dollars on the table (on a 5 yr deal). It's hard to think that will happen.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I expect Ryan to receive offers in the $8 million range. To anyone who thinks that's unreasonable, look at some recent cornerback contracts.

Byron Maxwell - $10.5 million average
Janoris Jenkins - $12.5 million average
Sean Smith - 9.5 million average
David Amercon - $8.7 million average
Kareem Jackson - $8.5 million average

Ryan has arguably outperformed most of the names on this list over the past two years. The CB market is wacky. A free agent starter now costs $10 million and an elite starter costs over $12 million.

Alot of stupid GMs out there. I would take jenkins over ryan. Someone will overpay for ryan.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Find a legit CB2

This year's schedule is setting up to be one where the Patriots are going to need 4 legit CBs.

Maybe bill think's rowe can be a legit CB2. I just don't wanna go through this again with the secondary.

 

[mikey m]

I agree with you that Ryan isn't likely to receive a 10m dollar a year deal, but I do think there's a night and day difference between him getting a 9m dollar a year offer and a 7.5m dollar a year offer.

If "our" 7.5 is equal to everyone else's 9, Ryan could leave close to 8m dollars on the table (on a 5 yr deal). It's hard to think that will happen.

I did put the '~' on my ~7.5M approximation to give some wiggle room. If he's getting 9M offers it'll cost us closer to 8M. Admittedly this is based on my assumptions about Ryan, namely 1) he likes his situation here, and 2) he's a football first guy.

Also, depends on the player/person, but our 7.5 could easily be worth other's 9 when you consider the risks. Not a surprise anymore when guys leave here for a few more dollars, don't succeed elsewhere, don't see the full extent of the contract, and possibly are out of the league in short order.

 

[patsfan-1982]

IMO Ryan means more to the defense then Hightower so I hope he is back

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

IMO Ryan means more to the defense then Hightower so I hope he is back

Thats incredibly bold to state I dunno about that.