This years draft haul

[PatsFanInVa]

Wow…. You need a life dude !

Hopefully the teacher will put a star on your forehead.

You would like that, it’s obvious

I think. Not terribly hard, here, given the surroundings. I write. Not particularly great stuff, here, given where I'm casting the pearls.

You should try both. They're rewarding in their own rights.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I think. Not terribly hard, here, given the surroundings. I write. Not particularly great stuff, here, given where I'm casting the pearls.

You should try both. They're rewarding in their own rights.

Wow….. A Good Will Hunting moment

How do yah like them apples ?

 

[upstater1]

Somebody screwed up their memes badly.

Buford T. ****er is from Walking Tall.

"What we have here is a failure to communicate" comes from Cool Hand Luke.

 

[Kasmir]

We have a terrible record under Belichick at drafting DB’s in round#2

Which one do you think was a good pick in the second round of the draft?

2008 - Terrence Wheatley
2009 - Patrick Chung
2009 - Darius Butler
2011 - Rasi Dowling
2012 - Tavon Wilson
2015 - Jordan Richards
2016 - Cyrus Jones
2018 - Duke Dawson
2019 - JoeJuan Williams

Chung was a bust as a #2 pick, but he did
Become a solid player after returning as a FA.

Just because we struck gold on a couple UDFA in Butler & JC Jackson, but that does
Not negate all the 2nd round DB busts

We also drafted Duggar in the 2nd round of
The 2020 draft. The jury is still out on Duggar who is great against the run & terrible against the pass.

I assume that like most fans you are functionally ignorant of probability and statistics, which makes this kind of discussion difficult to the point of futility. Probability and Statistics is not intuitive, which is why so many of us struggle with it. We are actually all too good at pattern matching, and can't easily tell when we're actually seeing pictures in the clouds of data versus when we are imagining patterns that aren't there.

There are two big problems the many fans like you who agree with your claim of a 2nd round pattern have:

First, you don't have any idea of what good performance in drafting actually is. That's sort of the whole point the OP of this thread.

Second, you make no allowance for luck, and indulge in the sin of cherry picking while you're at it.

Let me use as baseball analogy because fans have a much better history of interaction with statistical anomalies with that sport.

Let's say a batter new to baseball is up 10 times and gets 4 hits. What can you conclude about his (or her) performance? A completely ignorant fan might say, "that's terrible, he fails to get a hit 6 times out of 10!". That's the first point, you need to know how to measure performance and you can't say anything intelligent without addressing that. So what is the standard to address draft pick performance?

The second and even more important point is about sample size. Everyone knows you can't judge a baseball player hitting performance by using only 10 at bats, because we've all seen how streaky baseball performance can be. So why do you think 9 draft picks allows you to judge BB's performance versus a performance standard you can't even articulate? How do you know you're not seeing patterns in clouds?

Your obviously aware that you are cherry picking by downgrading Chung (a 10 year starter) and preemptively scorning Dugger. But the more important cherry picking mistake you and your brethren are making is excluding all the other DB draft picks BB has been responsible for. You need as many "at bats" as you can get! That's why excluding UDFA success is also a mistake, because it hides more samples of possibly demonstrated skill at picking and developing DB's.

Tracking UDFA history is hard so I haven't done it, but I have pulled BB's entire Patriots DB draft history for your bemusement:

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick
2022	3	Marcus Jones	85
2022	4	Jack Jones	121
2021	6	Joshuah Bledsoe	188
2020	2	Kyle Dugger	37
2019	2	Joejuan Williams	45
2019	7	Ken Webster	252
2018	2	Duke Dawson	56
2018	7	Keion Crossen	243
2016	2	Cyrus Jones	60
2015	7	Darryl Roberts	247
2015	2	Jordan Richards	64
2014	6	Jemea Thomas	206
2013	3	Logan Ryan	83
2013	3	Duron Harmon	91
2012	2	Tavon Wilson	48
2012	6	Nate Ebner	197
2012	7	Alfonzo Dennard	224
2011	2	Ras-I Dowling	33
2011	7	Malcolm Williams	219
2010	1	Devin McCourty	27
2009	2	Patrick Chung	34
2009	2	Darius Butler	41
2008	2	Terrence Wheatley	62
2008	4	Jonathan Wilhite	129
2007	1	Brandon Meriweather	24
2007	6	Mike Richardson	202
2006	7	Willie Andrews	229
2005	3	Ellis Hobbs	84
2005	4	James Sanders	133
2004	3	Guss Scott	95
2004	4	Dexter Reid	113
2004	7	Christian Morton	233
2003	2	Eugene Wilson	36
2003	4	Asante Samuel	120
2001	3	Brock Williams	86
2001	6	Leonard Myers	200
2000	6	Antwan Harris	187

I'll let you all to opine as to whether that is a good or bad history. It includes 1 first team all-pro year, 8 pro-bowl years, and 64 player years of primary starter for the Pats.

Stats thanks to New England Patriots All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[n1997y]

That’s a whole lot of hog wash to justify

I get real tired of seeing the homers try to put lipstick on a pig.

You seem to be very focused on porcines.

When someone actually is defending the player Jordan Richards will they be boar-ing you? Or are you just trying to sow discontent about the Patriots?

he’s just hamming it up for the attention.

 

[JackBauer]

It's too early to conclude anything either way regarding the draft however this is how I would grade the picks to date...

Cole Strange C-
Inconsistent at best. At times looks like a rookie who's not quite ready to be a starter.

Tyquan Thornton Inc.
Given his skinny frame it's a really bad sign that he got injured on the very first hard tackle he took. But hopefully soon we'll be able to see what he can contribute. I'm not sure who he's taking snaps from but they already have a receiver (Bourne) not getting enough game reps.

Marcus Jones B-
He looked great in the return game on Sunday but he's not getting any defensive snaps and I'm not sure I'm putting a 3rd round value on a return specialist. However, a few more games like Sunday and I'll be convinced.

Jack Jones B
Significant jump in playing time against the Packers, seeing 99% of defensive snaps. I don't understand what the hell he was doing on the Packers final possession in OT but it's hard to argue with a pick six against Rodgers in Lambeau.

Pierre Strong D
Not playing. Don't need him. Poor choice here.

Bailey Zappe C
A lot of people raving about his poise after being thrust into action on Sunday, and it's a fair complement overall, however he panicked a bit on his final pass of the game. That said, the play calling on that final brief possession didn't help either.

Kevin Harris F
Again, no need for a running back here. Waste of a pick.

Sam Roberts C
He's on the roster but mostly inactive. Had 1 ST snap on Sunday.

Chasen Hines C
OL depth player who hopefully won't be needed.

Andrew Stueber Inc.
Non-football injury list.

Stopped reading after Strange C-

 

[WhatJustHappened]

When your talking about Jordan Richards you need to get muddy, cause your dealing with one ugly performance on the field.

If you don’t believe me, make a thread asking the opinion of the Jordan Richards 2nd round pick and see what type of response you get….

I dare you….. lol….

It's DONE.

 

[Stu Pidassle]

Somebody screwed up their memes badly.

Buford T. ****er if from Walking Tall.

"What we have here is a failure to communicate" comes from Cool Hand Luke.

I thought that the real one looked too sinister for the situation, so I went with Jackie Gleason from Smokey and the Bandit.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I assume that like most fans you are functionally ignorant of probability and statistics, which makes this kind of discussion difficult to the point of futility. Probability and Statistics is not intuitive, which is why so many of us struggle with it. We are actually all too good at pattern matching, and can't easily tell when we're actually seeing pictures in the clouds of data versus when we are imagining patterns that aren't there.

There are two big problems the many fans like you who agree with your claim of a 2nd round pattern have:

First, you don't have any idea of what good performance in drafting actually is. That's sort of the whole point the OP of this thread.

Second, you make no allowance for luck, and indulge in the sin of cherry picking while you're at it.

Let me use as baseball analogy because fans have a much better history of interaction with statistical anomalies with that sport.

Let's say a batter new to baseball is up 10 times and gets 4 hits. What can you conclude about his (or her) performance? A completely ignorant fan might say, "that's terrible, he fails to get a hit 6 times out of 10!". That's the first point, you need to know how to measure performance and you can't say anything intelligent without addressing that. So what is the standard to address draft pick performance?

The second and even more important point is about sample size. Everyone knows you can't judge a baseball player hitting performance by using only 10 at bats, because we've all seen how streaky baseball performance can be. So why do you think 9 draft picks allows you to judge BB's performance versus a performance standard you can't even articulate? How do you know you're not seeing patterns in clouds?

Your obviously aware that you are cherry picking by downgrading Chung (a 10 year starter) and preemptively scorning Dugger. But the more important cherry picking mistake you and your brethren are making is excluding all the other DB draft picks BB has been responsible for. You need as many "at bats" as you can get! That's why excluding UDFA success is also a mistake, because it hides more samples of possibly demonstrated skill at picking and developing DB's.

Tracking UDFA history is hard so I haven't done it, but I have pulled BB's entire Patriots DB draft history for your bemusement:

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick
2022	3	Marcus Jones	85
2022	4	Jack Jones	121
2021	6	Joshuah Bledsoe	188
2020	2	Kyle Dugger	37
2019	2	Joejuan Williams	45
2019	7	Ken Webster	252
2018	2	Duke Dawson	56
2018	7	Keion Crossen	243
2016	2	Cyrus Jones	60
2015	7	Darryl Roberts	247
2015	2	Jordan Richards	64
2014	6	Jemea Thomas	206
2013	3	Logan Ryan	83
2013	3	Duron Harmon	91
2012	2	Tavon Wilson	48
2012	6	Nate Ebner	197
2012	7	Alfonzo Dennard	224
2011	2	Ras-I Dowling	33
2011	7	Malcolm Williams	219
2010	1	Devin McCourty	27
2009	2	Patrick Chung	34
2009	2	Darius Butler	41
2008	2	Terrence Wheatley	62
2008	4	Jonathan Wilhite	129
2007	1	Brandon Meriweather	24
2007	6	Mike Richardson	202
2006	7	Willie Andrews	229
2005	3	Ellis Hobbs	84
2005	4	James Sanders	133
2004	3	Guss Scott	95
2004	4	Dexter Reid	113
2004	7	Christian Morton	233
2003	2	Eugene Wilson	36
2003	4	Asante Samuel	120
2001	3	Brock Williams	86
2001	6	Leonard Myers	200
2000	6	Antwan Harris	187

I'll let you all to opine as to whether that is a good or bad history. It includes 1 first team all-pro year, 8 pro-bowl years, and 64 player years of primary starter for the Pats.

Stats thanks to New England Patriots All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

I can't believe Cyrus Jones didn't pan out. He could of really helped get a jump on the all-Jones secondary.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I assume that like most fans you are functionally ignorant of probability and statistics, which makes this kind of discussion difficult to the point of futility. Probability and Statistics is not intuitive, which is why so many of us struggle with it. We are actually all too good at pattern matching, and can't easily tell when we're actually seeing pictures in the clouds of data versus when we are imagining patterns that aren't there.

There are two big problems the many fans like you who agree with your claim of a 2nd round pattern have:

First, you don't have any idea of what good performance in drafting actually is. That's sort of the whole point the OP of this thread.

Second, you make no allowance for luck, and indulge in the sin of cherry picking while you're at it.

Let me use as baseball analogy because fans have a much better history of interaction with statistical anomalies with that sport.

Let's say a batter new to baseball is up 10 times and gets 4 hits. What can you conclude about his (or her) performance? A completely ignorant fan might say, "that's terrible, he fails to get a hit 6 times out of 10!". That's the first point, you need to know how to measure performance and you can't say anything intelligent without addressing that. So what is the standard to address draft pick performance?

The second and even more important point is about sample size. Everyone knows you can't judge a baseball player hitting performance by using only 10 at bats, because we've all seen how streaky baseball performance can be. So why do you think 9 draft picks allows you to judge BB's performance versus a performance standard you can't even articulate? How do you know you're not seeing patterns in clouds?

Your obviously aware that you are cherry picking by downgrading Chung (a 10 year starter) and preemptively scorning Dugger. But the more important cherry picking mistake you and your brethren are making is excluding all the other DB draft picks BB has been responsible for. You need as many "at bats" as you can get! That's why excluding UDFA success is also a mistake, because it hides more samples of possibly demonstrated skill at picking and developing DB's.

Tracking UDFA history is hard so I haven't done it, but I have pulled BB's entire Patriots DB draft history for your bemusement:

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick
2022	3	Marcus Jones	85
2022	4	Jack Jones	121
2021	6	Joshuah Bledsoe	188
2020	2	Kyle Dugger	37
2019	2	Joejuan Williams	45
2019	7	Ken Webster	252
2018	2	Duke Dawson	56
2018	7	Keion Crossen	243
2016	2	Cyrus Jones	60
2015	7	Darryl Roberts	247
2015	2	Jordan Richards	64
2014	6	Jemea Thomas	206
2013	3	Logan Ryan	83
2013	3	Duron Harmon	91
2012	2	Tavon Wilson	48
2012	6	Nate Ebner	197
2012	7	Alfonzo Dennard	224
2011	2	Ras-I Dowling	33
2011	7	Malcolm Williams	219
2010	1	Devin McCourty	27
2009	2	Patrick Chung	34
2009	2	Darius Butler	41
2008	2	Terrence Wheatley	62
2008	4	Jonathan Wilhite	129
2007	1	Brandon Meriweather	24
2007	6	Mike Richardson	202
2006	7	Willie Andrews	229
2005	3	Ellis Hobbs	84
2005	4	James Sanders	133
2004	3	Guss Scott	95
2004	4	Dexter Reid	113
2004	7	Christian Morton	233
2003	2	Eugene Wilson	36
2003	4	Asante Samuel	120
2001	3	Brock Williams	86
2001	6	Leonard Myers	200
2000	6	Antwan Harris	187

I'll let you all to opine as to whether that is a good or bad history. It includes 1 first team all-pro year, 8 pro-bowl years, and 64 player years of primary starter for the Pats.

Stats thanks to New England Patriots All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

If you need to look at stats to see Jordan Richards sucked, your either blind or Joe Biden.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

he’s just hamming it up for the attention.

Whatever makes you happy !
Your even welcome to add bacongrundle to the discussion, if you really want to ham it up.

 

[patfanken]

Kyle Dugger Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Kyle Dugger. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Weird, his statistics seem to improve year by year in BOTH metrics (run and pass). From allowing a 64% completion against to a 44% SO FAR this year. Compare to Jordan Poyer for example...64% this year so far...Minkah Fitzpatrick? 54.6%

never underestimate the power of the misinformed

 

[patfanken]

Here's the thing - you really shouldn't post on this thread before you read PScot's post about the percentages of successful draft picks. JUST 20% amount to anything, let alone stars. So pretty much EVERY team can trot out a thread which shows "categorically" how THEIR team sucks at drafting. Here's another thing when discussing Bill's management as the GM for the last 22 years. No team has even come CLOSE to the level of high level competitiveness over that period of time. (We can agree on THAT at least) So for the sake of argument he must be doing SOMETHING right to year after year to find 53 guys who he can put out on the field and represent US with pride.

Every OTHER team in the league has run into their ups and downs. Even the good franchises like Teams like the Steelers, Broncos, and Ravens, who seem to have good teams almost every year have had their ups and downs (I tried to think of an NFC team who fits in this mix and none came to mind, maybe the Packers). The Pats too have run into this problem, but SOMEHOW seem to fight through it. Hell the only year we had a losing record it was 7-9, a record teams like the Lions or Jets ASPIRE to have. For us it was a nadir.

So YES, Jordan Richards was a horrible pick, and imho is without ANY redeeming quality. So were a number of picks over the years. But we REALLY need to look at the TOTAL picture and the REAL goal of the franchise and that is to build a team that will WIN games. What was the old saying. "I'm not looking to draft talent but to build a TEAM". or something like that.

And btw don't give me it was all because we had Brady. Granted having the GOAT at QB certainly didn't hurt, BUT having a great player, even at the most important position on the offense, DOESN'T get you to the promised land. That is NOT what football is all about. It's the game where EVERYONE's success is dependent on 10 OTHER guys. Now over the years the media has focused on the INDIVIDUAL in their reporting of the game, so it was never about the Colts and the Pats, but rather Brady vs Manning. Smart marketing I suppose, but quintessentially wrong and, in my mind, disrespectful to the GAME. That's what makes it such a compelling game, which has enthralled me for over 65 years. AND why it's more important to "build a team" rather than just "add talent".

ANYHOW...I've rambled enough and kind of got off on a tangent, so to get back on it as of now we got a 10 year starter at LG, an immediate impact from Jack Jones - our return man and part time contributor on D in MJones, and a full time ST's contributor in.Shroeder That's already well above the 20% level of what we should expect. We only have preseason clues about Thornton and Strong so anything those 2 do and the rest bring are just gravy...and then there is Zappe

 

[PScottman]

Smart marketing I suppose, but quintessentially wrong and, in my mind, disrespectful to the GAME. That's what makes it such a compelling game, which has enthralled me for over 65 years. AND why it's more important to "build a team" rather than just "add talent".

This is why I hate David Stern with a passion. He made the change from "Lakers! Celtics! Tonight on ABC!" to "Bird! Magic!" and the other professional sports quickly followed suit. Fans slowly migrated away from teams to players. It's now the minority that roots more for the hometown team than the individuals that comprise it.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Dan Orlovsty states:
"I've talked this for a few weeks now... Inside, their two guards (Strange and Onwenu), is as good as anyone's in the league".

@crawhammer states: Cole Strange C-
"Inconsistent at best. At times looks like a rookie who's not quite ready to be a starter."

Who do you believe?

 

[NG Pats Fan]

I assume that like most fans you are functionally ignorant of probability and statistics, which makes this kind of discussion difficult to the point of futility. Probability and Statistics is not intuitive, which is why so many of us struggle with it. We are actually all too good at pattern matching, and can't easily tell when we're actually seeing pictures in the clouds of data versus when we are imagining patterns that aren't there.

There are two big problems the many fans like you who agree with your claim of a 2nd round pattern have:

First, you don't have any idea of what good performance in drafting actually is. That's sort of the whole point the OP of this thread.

Second, you make no allowance for luck, and indulge in the sin of cherry picking while you're at it.

Let me use as baseball analogy because fans have a much better history of interaction with statistical anomalies with that sport.

Let's say a batter new to baseball is up 10 times and gets 4 hits. What can you conclude about his (or her) performance? A completely ignorant fan might say, "that's terrible, he fails to get a hit 6 times out of 10!". That's the first point, you need to know how to measure performance and you can't say anything intelligent without addressing that. So what is the standard to address draft pick performance?

The second and even more important point is about sample size. Everyone knows you can't judge a baseball player hitting performance by using only 10 at bats, because we've all seen how streaky baseball performance can be. So why do you think 9 draft picks allows you to judge BB's performance versus a performance standard you can't even articulate? How do you know you're not seeing patterns in clouds?

Your obviously aware that you are cherry picking by downgrading Chung (a 10 year starter) and preemptively scorning Dugger. But the more important cherry picking mistake you and your brethren are making is excluding all the other DB draft picks BB has been responsible for. You need as many "at bats" as you can get! That's why excluding UDFA success is also a mistake, because it hides more samples of possibly demonstrated skill at picking and developing DB's.

Tracking UDFA history is hard so I haven't done it, but I have pulled BB's entire Patriots DB draft history for your bemusement:

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick
2022	3	Marcus Jones	85
2022	4	Jack Jones	121
2021	6	Joshuah Bledsoe	188
2020	2	Kyle Dugger	37
2019	2	Joejuan Williams	45
2019	7	Ken Webster	252
2018	2	Duke Dawson	56
2018	7	Keion Crossen	243
2016	2	Cyrus Jones	60
2015	7	Darryl Roberts	247
2015	2	Jordan Richards	64
2014	6	Jemea Thomas	206
2013	3	Logan Ryan	83
2013	3	Duron Harmon	91
2012	2	Tavon Wilson	48
2012	6	Nate Ebner	197
2012	7	Alfonzo Dennard	224
2011	2	Ras-I Dowling	33
2011	7	Malcolm Williams	219
2010	1	Devin McCourty	27
2009	2	Patrick Chung	34
2009	2	Darius Butler	41
2008	2	Terrence Wheatley	62
2008	4	Jonathan Wilhite	129
2007	1	Brandon Meriweather	24
2007	6	Mike Richardson	202
2006	7	Willie Andrews	229
2005	3	Ellis Hobbs	84
2005	4	James Sanders	133
2004	3	Guss Scott	95
2004	4	Dexter Reid	113
2004	7	Christian Morton	233
2003	2	Eugene Wilson	36
2003	4	Asante Samuel	120
2001	3	Brock Williams	86
2001	6	Leonard Myers	200
2000	6	Antwan Harris	187

I'll let you all to opine as to whether that is a good or bad history. It includes 1 first team all-pro year, 8 pro-bowl years, and 64 player years of primary starter for the Pats.

Stats thanks to New England Patriots All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Some mega busts in there

Asante Samuel was a home run pick in round 4. The NFL’s best ballhawk for a 3-4 year period and he had some huge pick 6’s in important playoff games.

McCourty was a great pick because of the smart move to turn him into a safety. He was on his way to bust status as a CB

Chung had a great career

Eugene Wilson was a one year wonder who was very good for that 1 year

Logan Ryan was solid
Duron Harmon was solid

 

[crawhammer]

Dan Orlovsty states:
"I've talked this for a few weeks now... Inside, their two guards (Strange and Onwenu), is as good as anyone's in the league".

@crawhammer states: Cole Strange C-
"Inconsistent at best. At times looks like a rookie who's not quite ready to be a starter."

Who do you believe?

Well, I did post that before they hosted Dan Campbell's 2-15 Detroit Lions. So all the credit to Strange and the rest of the Patriots o-line for knocking the snot out of the creampuffs on that d-line. I recall Strange getting benched in the season opener, but whatever that's ancient history, he looks more the part now so I'll bump the grade up to a C+. Can't forget he's a 1st round pick so this isn't some feel good story of an UDFA. Let's see how the o-line protects Zappe from Garrett and Clowney, that's assuming Stevenson doesn't rush for 200 and Zappe has 20 or less pass attempts, which is possible.

I would similarly adjust Zappe's grade in a favorable direction but he's 1.75 games into his career so a lot can change after 2.75.

 

[crawhammer]

McCourty was a great pick because of the smart move to turn him into a safety. He was on his way to bust status as a CB

All due respect to McCourty's fan club... but doesn't that latter part sort of make it a bad pick?

 

[realtime]

Some mega busts in there

Asante Samuel was a home run pick in round 4. The NFL’s best ballhawk for a 3-4 year period and he had some huge pick 6’s in important playoff games.

McCourty was a great pick because of the smart move to turn him into a safety. He was on his way to bust status as a CB

Chung had a great career

Eugene Wilson was a one year wonder who was very good for that 1 year

Logan Ryan was solid
Duron Harmon was solid

McCourty was an All Pro corner as a rookie.

 

[realtime]

All due respect to McCourty's fan club... but doesn't that latter part sort of make it a bad pick?

McCourty was an All Pro corner as a rookie.