MORSE: Four Potential 2025 Patriots Draft Scenarios
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Posted Under: 2025 Patriots Draft
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Well maybe not that bad, but we have been talking about the draft since it was obvious the Patriots were in for a disastrous season back in November. The Draft is finally a little over a week away. I am going to look at the four scenarios the Patriots face when picking 4th in next week’s draft.
Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter, the Heisman Trophy winner, and EDGE rusher Abdul Carter of Penn State are the cream of the crop as far as athletes are concerned. QB Cam Ward will be the #1 pick by Tennessee.
Scenario #1 – Travis Hunter drops into the Patriots’ lap at #4. I don’t need 15 minutes to make that decision, I am running the card up before some team makes me a crazy offer. Hunter is the #1 player at two positions. This one is a no-brainer of taking the Best Available Athlete and foregoing the need for an OT until later. The Patriots will be doing their draft prep with other GMs gauging their interest in a trade that would get the Patriots back into the 1st round to select an Offensive Tackle. The best trading partner might be the Minnesota Vikings, who own the 24th selection. The Vikings only have 4 draft picks (1st, 3rd, 5th, and 6th). It will take the 2nd round pick #38 and 3rd Round pick #77, the selection acquired in the Matt Judon trade. It’s a little uneven according to the Jimmy Johnson draft Trade Chart, so the Patriots might have to add a 2026 6th-round pick to balance it off. Minnesota only has one of three tackles, Josh Simmons, Kelvin Banks or Josh Connerly should be available at #24. Mike Vrabel spent a lot of time talking with Josh Simmons at his Ohio State Pro Day.
Scenario #2 – Hunter dropping to the Patriots is highly unlikely. However, Abdul Carter being available at #4 is a realistic scenario. Some character flaws have been revealed in the last few weeks, according to Bob McGinn, a well-respected national football scribe. It’s not saying that Carter is a bad guy, but that he is aloof, eccentric, and doesn’t practice hard. He is not a team leader. Add this to the medical concerns brought up in the Combine medical exams, indicating that Carter has a stress reaction in his foot. According to his agent Drew Rosenhaus, Carter‘s foot is showing improvement and won’t need surgery.
Carter was in Indianapolis for a Combine medical recheck on the injury following an initial evaluation at February’s scouting combine. The All-America pass rusher is also recovering from a shoulder injury and didn’t participate in on-field drills at the combine or at Penn State’s pro day.
The Patriots are doing their due diligence and have had Carter in for a Top 30 Visit to re-check the medical reports and to get a gauge on the character of the player. If this scenario were to play out the Patriots would again try and trade back into the 1st round and pick up the best tackle available.
Scenarios #3 – Neither Carter nor Hunter are available. The Patriots then would like to trade back and pick up some additional draft capital. Reports came out this week that New Orleans starting QB Derek Carr may need shoulder surgery, which could knock him out for the year. I said weeks ago in my Mock Draft #3 that the Patriots should take Carter and trade with New Orleans at #9 to select an OT. I was offering Joe Milton, Jahlani Tavai, and a 2026 #1.
I bet the Saints wished they had traded for Joe Milton now! To think we just gave him away! The trade would be New Orleans 1st round selection (#9) and second-round pick (#40). In my last Mock Draft, both Will Campbell and Armand Membou were taken before pick #9. This is where I shock the world and take Georgia Linebacker / EDGE Rusher Jalon Walker. In 2024, Walker was selected as the top linebacker in College Football by winning the prestigious Butkus Award. At 6’1”, 243-pounds Walker ran a 4.5 40-yard dash at the Combine. He can play inside or out and is a devastating pass rusher despite being undersized. He had 5 sacks in 2023 as a part-time player. Last season, he added 6.5 sacks and 61 total tackles while garnering 3rd team All-American and 2nd Team All-SEC honors. In his 3-year career, he only started 11 games, all in 2024. Walker turned 21 in February. This is what NFL Draft Buzz says about Walker:
He is also a team leader. The Junior was elected as a Team Captain in 2024.
The Patriots would then trade with the Vikings to bring the Patriots back into the 1st round to select an Offensive Tackle.
Scenario #4 – Your Worst Nightmare! Both Hunter and Carter are gone and the Patriots can’t find a trade partner and have to stick and pick at #4. The Patriots might be a little gun shy from getting burned last year and not getting a Left Tackle. If they take Walker they risk the chance of not getting back into the 1st round and/ or reaching for a Tackle. They could just stick and pick Will Campbell, the safe pick. No one in Foxboro is concerned about Campbell’s arm length. He has started for two years in the SEC going up against a lot of players that will be drafted. The Video Tape doesn’t lie! The worst case with Campbell is that he is a Pro Bowl Guard that plays for 10 years. They could go for Armand Membou a player with a lower floor but higher ceiling. The knock against Membou is that he hasn’t played Left Tackle. He started at Right Tackle for three seasons. Yes, that is in the SEC just like Campbell. He gave up three sacks in three years and only 1 in the last two seasons. I saw him eat up Donovan Ezeiruaku from Boston College a projected 2nd round pick this year. No sacks and forced Ezeiruaku to the other side of the field. Membou didn’t switch to Left Tackle because Missouri signed Left Tackle Marcus Bryant from SMU in the transfer portal. Bryant was 1st Team All-AAC at SMU in 2023. That’s why Membou didn’t switch. Unfortunately, Membou got sick at the Senior Bowl and didn’t get that opportunity to switch and take some snaps at Left Tackle, an exercise the scouts insist on seeing.
This is the big news of the week. Carr’s shoulder has not responded to just rest, and he may need season-ending shoulder surgery. This leaves the Saints in desperate need of a QB. Do they trade for Kurt Cousins or do they sign Aaron Rodgers? We know Spencer Rattler is not the answer. New Orleans might jump up and trade for a chance to select Shedeur Sanders. This could possibly benefit the Patriots by creating a market for Sanders and a potential bidding war. The same situation applies to the NY Giants, who don’t really want Carter since they have Chauncey Golston, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux at the LB / edge pass rush position. If the Giants make that trade, either Hunter or Carter fall into the Patriots’ lap.
I am going to prioritize what I believe the Patriots need and how they can draft to make the team better.
Left Tackle – everyone knows this is their top priority. Do they take the Tackle right away and not have to worry about finding a trade partner to get a quality tackle later in the first round. An interesting point was raised by Jason Licht, the Tampa Bay GM. He stated that he doesn’t think there will be many trades because teams are not willing to give up draft capital to move up.
Tight End – Both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper will be 31 in-season and entering their 10th season. We need someone who can catch and block. Eliot Wolf seems to think this is a deep draft for TEs. I don’t. Warren and Loveland will be gone before the Patriots can get a chance to take them. I want Mason Taylor and would take him as high as the top of the 2nd round.
Edge Rusher – Harold Landry is getting up there in age. The Patriots were dead last in sacks. I would love to get Abdul Carter, but another possibility is Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia. There are other players later in the draft, too. I have Pass Rush as a higher priority than Running Back because of position scarcity.
Running back – Rhamondre Stevenson, we can’t trust because of his fumbling problem, and I don’t think Antonio Gibson is an every-down back. I want a workhorse back and a second receiving back. This is a very deep back class with as many as 32 RBs with draftable grades. The Patriots should wait to take a running back. Look for them to double down and take a second receiving back late in the draft.
Wide Receiver – We still need an X receiver and more speed from our receivers. Outside of Diggs and Hollins, any of last season’s receivers can easily be replaced. None of our receivers have the requisite speed under 4.5 in the 40 and under 7.0 3-cone drill time.
Defensive Line – This class is so deep that the Patriots (and other teams) may wait to grab them for value later in the draft. That may give the Patriots an opportunity to draft a better lineman with that extra 3rd round selection.
Free Safety – The Patriots have ignored the Free Safety position since Devin McCourty retired. The Patriots added Marcus Epps in Free Agency, but is that enough? I think Kyle Dugger and Marte Mapu should move to LB and neither should be a Safety again. Don’t hinder the progress that Dell Pettus made last season. He filled in admirably for Dugger and Peppers with 341 defensive snaps. His 73.9 rating from Pro Football Focus had him ranked 26th in the league as an UDFA rookie last season.
We have been told by the NFL Draft pundits that his is not a good Draft Class. I disagree. This class lacks star power and only has two or three sure things at the top of the draft. However, this class has a lot of talent particularly at Running Back and Defensive Tackle. This is what is called a Starters Draft. Each team should be able to get three to four starting players out of this draft.
Presently, the Patriots have 4 picks within the first 80 players. They should get 4 starting players if Eliot Wolf and the scouting staff do their jobs correctly. If Wolf has another disastrous draft like he did last year, he will get fired. He might get fired anyway, so that Mike Vrabel can install his man Ryan Cowden into the GM position. Usually, a team waits until after the draft to make GM firings.
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I would pick Campbell at 4 and Mason Taylor at 38.