This years draft haul

[Bill Lee]

20% of ALL draft picks...regardless of round chosen are above average. 1 in 5 without even bringing "rounds" into it. You know that the Patriots got TWO of that 20% outlined above in that same year (so ABOVE the league average) in Trey Flowers and Shaq Mason? (Oh, and guess what else...they signed an UDFA that's not counted in the draft analysis...some guy named David Andrews...so they actually came out WELL ahead of the league average for player selection via the "non-free agency" process).

But I know...Jordan Richards still sucks and should be the only measuring stick for this.

Exactly. It's so strange that people cherry pick results to try to denigrate the team they outwardly claim to support, and have no ability to look at the big picture.

Seriously, if we sucked at drafting (and coaching too), how did we manage a 20 year dynasty in a team sport? How has our worst season in the last 20 years been 7-9 while there are more than a few teams that would consider a single season with 7-9 a great result?

I like the research and I think I am on your side but the editor in me can't take the idea of an average that 20% fall above. Definitionally 50% of all picks are at or above average. Again, this reaction is purely driven by language.

Yet that's exactly what the data say, only 20% of draft picks are average and above.

I think the main issue is people buy in to the "hype train" that the NFL draft is, and never examine the eventual outcomes.

Most people cherry pick the successful players without factoring in things like big names in the draft such as Darnold and Trubisky are now benched and Mayfield is clearly not a NFL-caliber starter. People have no problem remembering DK Metcalf but forget about Andy Isabella or Allen Robinson, all 2nd rounders.

If the NFL draft position is such a great indicator of talent, how do you explain the number of UDFAs playing in the league? Every team in the league had roughly seven shots at putting those guys on their roster, none did, yet many are having better careers than others drafted in the first round. How could that be?

Again, this to me is a sign that many people are hooked to the "drug-like rush" that the NFL Draft provides. It's the off season, 31 out of 32 teams have not won the Super Bowl, fans are desperate, and the NFL is handing out Christmas presents. People get really butt hurt when they open their present and find coal, it makes them forget about the rest of the presents.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Exactly. It's so strange that people cherry pick results to try to denigrate the team they outwardly claim to support, and have no ability to look at the big picture.

Seriously, if we sucked at drafting (and coaching too), how did we manage a 20 year dynasty in a team sport? How has our worst season in the last 20 years been 7-9 while there are more than a few teams that would consider a single season with 7-9 a great result?


Yet that's exactly what the data say, only 20% of draft picks are average and above.

I think the main issue is people buy in to the "hype train" that the NFL draft is, and never examine the eventual outcomes.

Most people cherry pick the successful players without factoring in things like big names in the draft such as Darnold and Trubisky are now benched and Mayfield is clearly not a NFL-caliber starter. People have no problem remembering DK Metcalf but forget about Andy Isabella or Allen Robinson, all 2nd rounders.

If the NFL draft position is such a great indicator of talent, how do you explain the number of UDFAs playing in the league? Every team in the league had roughly seven shots at putting those guys on their roster, none did, yet many are having better careers than others drafted in the first round. How could that be?

Again, this to me is a sign that many people are hooked to the "drug-like rush" that the NFL Draft provides. It's the off season, 31 out of 32 teams have not won the Super Bowl, fans are desperate, and the NFL is handing out Christmas presents. People get really butt hurt when they open their present and find coal, it makes them forget about the rest of the presents.

How are they defining average?

Edit: Also, in NE they're not butt-hurt to find coal, they're butt-hurt that the coal came in a colorful shiny "Xth Round Pick!" package. Oh my GOD, how could OUR draft war room, and nobody else, whiff on an Xth round pick!

This is so Bahston it's in the pilot episode of Cheers. Sorry I didn't find the clip but...

Coach Quote #1 - Cheers - TV Quotes

A funny quote from Coach in the Cheers episode `Give Me a Ring Sometime`.

tvquot.es

 

[BTTA]

So on field results are not the measure of a draft pick? Whether or not they play in the position drafted does? Huh?


BTW Edelman was drafted as a QB. Guess he was a terrible pick too then.

That's what @crawhammer is saying. If you follow the thread, he's the one who said that any player who switches positions is a failure, regardless of what happens next, using McCourty as the example.

 

[Bill Lee]

How are they defining average?

Terminology was provided in the post I was responding to:

This years draft haul

Which one do you think was a good pick in the second round of the draft? 2008 - Terrence Wheatley 2009 - Patrick Chung 2009 - Darius Butler 2011 - Rasi Dowling 2012 - Tavon Wilson 2015 - Jordan Richards 2016 - Cyrus Jones 2018 - Duke Dawson 2019 - JoeJuan Williams The only picks that you can...

www.patsfans.com

 

[PatsFanInVa]

So it's reverse Lake Woebegone rules, all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the picks are below average.

 

[Bill Lee]

So it's reverse Lake Woebegone rules, all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the picks are below average.

I suppose that's one way to look at it. Another way is pretty clearly there are a lot of cuts on the day we go to 53-man rosters. Most of those are rookies. Also lots end up on the PS and never make a meaningful impact on game day. That alone covers 50% of the drafted players.

We have a few players on our PS for the second season in a row, which says even players we just drafted but cut weren't even good enough to take away a spot on the PS from another borderline player.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I suppose that's one way to look at it. Another way is pretty clearly there are a lot of cuts on the day we go to 53-man rosters. Most of those are rookies. Also lots end up on the PS and never make a meaningful impact on game day. That alone covers 50% of the drafted players.

We have a few players on our PS for the second season in a row, which says even players we just drafted but cut weren't even good enough to take away a spot on the PS from another borderline player.

So that means that our average vs, other teams' average will not be comparable. With a value approach and a notably anti-panic approach, we tend to have a lot of guys who can and do step up and contribute. We're predictably well-represented in so-called "average" guys. We do hit home runs but the approach has been to hit a lot of singles, and to take our shots at home runs through value propositions. Good example this year is the yet-unproven Tyquan Thornton in the 2nd round... a "reach" according to guys who think the draft media knows more than the war room knows about whether the guy might get taken elsewhere.

But I'm off the main point... we're still using "average" in the non-literal way, but your point is good too... getting an "average" contributor... a "JAG" good enough to be on the 53, is an achievement, on average. Everybody in the NFL knows this. No NFL fan, apparently, does.

 

[cupofjoe1962]

I was not happy with the draft on draft day, but I am not complaining now.

I am very encouraged with what I am seeing with the young players

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

This draft is looking like one of BBs best ever.

 

[sportnik]

This draft is looking like one of BBs best ever.

A very promising start for young Matt Groh, for sure!

 

[Love The Drake]

A very promising start for young Matt Groh, for sure!

Keep him and the Wolf in New England long term.

 

[fester]

I like the research and I think I am on your side but the editor in me can't take the idea of an average that 20% fall above. Definitionally 50% of all picks are at or above average. Again, this reaction is purely driven by language.

No, 50% of picks are above median. Average is a function of the shape of the distribution.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

No, 50% of picks are above median. Average is a function of the shape of the distribution.

There is no quantitative ranking applicable to distinguish median from mean.

Might I recommend Madden ratings

(edit, you're right of course. It just adds up to 1 more reason we should not be saying players are "average," at least in a technical way. I just never hear that a player's "about median." Second point, if we are saying guyx are "average" for being significantly above the mean in terms of ability to replace with another player, who would also somehow have to be drafted, then we're even flunking the layman's application. Translation, stop saying a guy is a JAG as if it's a bad thing. JAGs aren't busts, they're just not irreplaceable. Treat "not irreplaceable" as "rubbish," and you become unable to field an NFL roster because there is not enough elite talent to stock every position with only the elite, with more or less equal access to talent ensured by the cap.)

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I was not happy with the draft on draft day, but I am not complaining now.

I am very encouraged with what I am seeing with the young players

Thanks man. It's not easy predicting who the Pats/Bill will draft every single year before the draft. We're probably the most unpredictable team out there but somehow I manage to hit about 5 picks a year out of 100-120 (somewhat realistic # although I'll admit to the higher side). Every year. Not easy considering I'm doing this from my ranch or job site.

Strange, Strong, Zappe, Marcus Jones, Mac Jones, McGrone, Sherman, Sony, Crossen, Wynn, Dawson, Christian Sam, Dugger, Uche, Lewerke, Bryant, Keene, Asiasi, Onwenu, Wino, Froholdt, Stidham, D Harris, Berrios

Not easy being this good. I'm not sure who's in 2nd place but I can't even see them?

Anyway, you all are welcome!

 

[cupofjoe1962]

Thanks man. It's not easy predicting who the Pats/Bill will draft every single year before the draft. We're probably the most unpredictable team out there but somehow I manage to hit about 5 picks a year out of 100-120 (somewhat realistic # although I'll admit to the higher side). Every year. Not easy considering I'm doing this from my ranch or job site.

Strange, Strong, Zappe, Marcus Jones, Mac Jones, McGrone, Sherman, Sony, Crossen, Wynn, Dawson, Christian Sam, Dugger, Uche, Lewerke, Bryant, Keene, Asiasi, Onwenu, Wino, Froholdt, Stidham, D Harris, Berrios

Not easy being this good. I'm not sure who's in 2nd place but I can't even see them?

Anyway, you all are welcome!

Felger &’Maz have a better record throwing darts at the book.

Without even looking back. What were your feelings on Wynn & Harry when they were drafted?

It is easy to say your right, but your so far up Belichick’s butt, I could see you defending the Ron Brace draft pick

When have you been critical of a Pats pick?

You wave the same Pom poms all the time and you will eventually have something to celebrate

Hey …. I am glad that the draft class is shaping up. The kids did look good today

I stopped making predictions after I nailed the 2nd round Dobson pick. That pick was as bad as some of our 2nd round DB picks.

Sure not proud of that guess.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Without even looking back. What were your feelings on Wynn & Harry when they were drafted?

It is easy to say your right, but your so far up Belichick’s butt, I could see you defending the Ron Brace draft pick

When have you been critical of a Pats pick?

You wave the same Pom poms all the time and you will eventually have something to celebrate

I'm not saying this being mean but I think you're a little lost man.

I'm definitely not up Bill's butt lol. Far from it actually! I'm on record and strongly believe players > coaches. Bill kept us balanced, ahead of the curve, mentally strong and laser focused but we actually won games, playoff games, SB's bc of Brady.

Neither here nor there but I'm definitely not a Bill homer. I wouldn't have picked Harry although I really liked him coming out. He produced at a young age and throughout his college career, tested well and was a need so I understood it even though I thought Deebo was the perfect Patriot. I also had Butler as WR1 so that would have been tough at the time but loved Deebo for us. I didn't like the Sony pick again though I understood it. Him and Wynn were "win now" picks. Loved Wynn. He was fantastic in college and looked like the perfect pat with his versatility, toughness and reliability (he had no injury concerns) but recently he's obviously playing average with killer flags.

Some guys work out, some don't. Welcome to the draft. It's not easy but a few things that some get confused or mixed up on.

I'm only trying to predict who we'll draft or eventually pick up udfa. I'm not a coach and have zero impact on how they'll turn out. I'm just looking at past trends and using my gut from my couch so again obviously have no impact on how they'll turn out. I have my favorites but I'm not looking at it like that or any other way. It's trends, preferences and my gut when I pretend to be Bill. So I'm not just naming the best players or w/e I'm pretending to be Bill and blocking out the noise. It's not what I would do in most cases. Again though I do have favorites or binkys bc I'm a big college fan. So I'm not waving pom-poms. I'm making an educated guess based on everything I know about Bill and the way we draft.

If it were easy the media, especially would do it. They have more access then me but none really stand out although Perry, Lazar, Daniels are good. They're not @BaconGrundleCandy good.

 

[JMC00]

 

[JarOfMayo51]

At the end of the day, I don’t know why we are bickering over where McCourty ended up as he stayed with the team for 13 years now. Without looking it up, he may be the longest tenured draft pick from his class.

In fact, many people probably don’t remember that Brian Urlacher started out a a OLB, but quickly got benched for Rosevelt Colvin. They decided to try him at MLB after their starter got injured two weeks later. We know what happened after that. Would he have continued to struggle at OLB had the coaching staff not tried him at MLB? We’ll never know.

Malcolm Jenkins also wasn’t a good CB, but had a long career at S.

yea.. We spent a 1st round pick on someone who was supposed to be a CB who was 4 down player... he didnt work out in the CB role, but instead transitioned to FS to address a gap we had there for like half a decade and solidified that position for us for over a decade

and there is actually a conversation about how he was/wasnt a good pick lol... He's been a pro bowler, all pro, team captain and defensive staple for us. It was a good pick.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Well done, BB and team!

If they can keep drafting like they have the last 2 years, we're going to be looking pretty good especially with all the cap money coming

 

[JarOfMayo51]

I was not happy with the draft on draft day, but I am not complaining now.

I am very encouraged with what I am seeing with the young players

The only pick I was floored by was the Strange pick, but thats because i had no idea who he was after doing like 5000 mock drafts and then we had some other posters who know a good amount about the draft that felt he was a 4th rounder or later

then you add the McVay video laughing at the pick, it was an emotional time!

Totally over that now, he looks to be the real deal so we have that spot solidified for the next 5+ years. Was a good pick!