I have been reading a LOT of the usual post OTA summaries of where the Pats are at this point of the season. So since I don't work for any legitimate Patriot news organization (STILL waiting for the call, Ian 
), I decided to do one myself.
DISCLAIMER: This is shorts and t-shirts my friends, so anything ANYONE says (Including myself) must he viewed with the largest grain of salt you can imagine
The POSITIVES
1 The Defense IS going to be very good. A top 10 defense.....at least.
a. This defense is going to be FAST. Can you remember the last time "fast" and the Patriots defense were even used in the same sentence. You probably can't because it has never happened, at least in this century. We've had "big", "tough" "physical", etc used the last 23 years, but never "fast". Well it looks like we can FINALLY add "fast" to the adjective list. Mapu, Peppers, Wilson, ALL the Jones boys, Mills and Gonzales give the Pats a TON of speed on all 3 levels of the defense.
Remember that we live in an era where 4.5 speed is considered on the slow side for a WR. Where the rules make it VERY difficult to be physical with receivers. Where you are actively "encouraged" NOT to touch the QB. So defenses, by RULE, are at an extreme DISADVANTAGE going into every game. (disclaimer: it should be noted that I never played much offense after HS and started on the defensive side of the ball coaching and after my 3rd year as an assistant was calling and coordinating defenses and continued to do so as a HC, so I might be slightly biased on this topic) Big, tough, physical defenses just aren't going to do it anymore in these conditions. One of the reasons BILL is the GOAT of coaches is because he NEVER went "down with the ship" with ANY one "system". As the game changed Bill has ALWAYS changed with it. In fact has LED the change on several occasions. So as WR's and TE's have gotten bigger and more athletic, defense have GOT to change as well.
White runs a 4.79 40. To put that into perspective that is faster than Rodney Harrison but at 6'6 285. Speed just doesn't have to be limited to the 2nd and 3rd levels. Mapu WAS the most questioned pick in our draft, and now he is the most lauded. He adds not only speed, but flexibility, but more on that later. Mills was a "good" CB, but he's always been a "better" S. He will be bring CB speed at the S position. The 3 Jones boys and and Peppers and Wilson are ALL speed guys as well, and Gonzales has 4.3 speed and the quickest hips since Fergie of the "black eyed peas"
b. This defense is going to be "flexible". And that is going to be key to its success. The usual position titles we give to players aren't going to work as much this year, though the term "positionless" isn't going to be correct either. I took a 3 mile walk the other day and for most of that hour+ time I was thinking of all the things I could do with a guy like Mapu who looks like he can play on all 3 levels. Terms like LB and S are going to blur folks. There will be LOTS of different personnel combinations this season which will add recognition problems for the offense as well as added depth
This flexibility even extends to the DL where guys like Wise White, and Judon can play all over the DL from outside to inside. This is a pretty athletic DL so loop and slash stunts are going to be used effectively like we saw last year. We haven't had a really effective blitzer from the 2ndary since Rodney. Could Mapu be a bigger faster version and an effective rusher from all THREE levels? (Boy that pick looks better now, doesn't it? )
Believe it or not LANGUAGE plays a big part in this. It's one thing to put x's and O's on the board and create responsibilities and move guys around, its another to be able to translate all that "flexibility" into verbiage that can be said in 5 or 6 words. Think about that for a sec it would be a nightmare to develop. Fortunately the team of Jarod and Steve seem to have one in place. AND even more fortunately by all reports the players have seemed to have grasped it.
I really liked the Peppers signing last year. He was OK, but he wasn't the impact player I had hoped. So hearing Bill praise Peppers so much was gratifying, but the quote I liked best was when Peppers said, he can now "play fast". Because THAT is a key distinction that a lot of fans fail to make. There is a big difference between BEING fast and PLAYING fast. That is the thing we are hoping to see from a player like Thornton. He IS fast, but can he PLAY fast?
This distinction goes to ALL players. I constantly remark how relatively slow Rodney Harrison was, but Rodney PLAYED faster than his actual speed...a LOT faster. If I am a 4.8 guy and I can recognize, anticipate, or process a play just 3 tenths of a second faster than the 4.6 guy, then I can beat him to the spot I need to be. That is what "playing fast" means to me. It's not just playing without thinking and just "reacting to what you see"; it's how fast you REACT to what you see.
I don't think they defense is going to be physically dominant like those old D's of the early aughts. (those guy beat the **** out of teams even when they lost). but they WILL be very hard for teams to prepare for because of all the position flexibility AND speed. I was very good sometimes last year, and very bad a few times as well. Hopefully the added speed, flexibility and depth will aid in a more consistent result, as well as the advantage of having most of the team back in the same system.
Bottom line, I predict that when you first get a chance to see this defense in action, whether its at TC or on TV for preseason games one of your first reactions is going to be "boy, they look fast".
2. Mac looked good. There is nothing the Mac naysayers can say to dispute this. Of course, like I said to start, this is ONLY shorts and t-shirts and relatively meaningless, there WERE a few things that can make us hopeful. Most importantly he looked like was "in control" of the offense. He ran the offense confidently. He quickly made all the presnap adjustments and calls, and was decisive and VERY accurate with his throws. He looked a bit bigger and stronger, and added a bit more zip on his ball. What more can we ask.....AT HIS POINT.
I think I saw some tweet from a writer who said Mac was something like 52-58 in the 3 OTA's, and while that's a meaningless stat given the context, you can't help by being encouraged by THAT kind of accuracy. The QB controversy is over barring injury. The only question now is do we get the 2021 version of Mac, or the 2021 PLUS version we will need to compete in our division. Lots of questions still to be answered and answering will be a process that will go on from now until January.
3. The TE's. IF Giseki pans out then we will FINALLY see the vision the Pats had at the position when we signed both Smith and Henry in the 2021 spending spree. Now it's a bit unfair to put Gesiki in as the kind of TE we envision when we think of Gronk. Gesiki more fits the term "Joker" which is now being used to describe the evolution of the TE position the way it is played today by guys like Kelce. Still he is 6'5 245 and often works with the WR on skill drills. Now he might not be a good blocker as reports have said, but if he is just a WILLING blocker he can be a big asset. Either way Gesiki and Henry will be an important asset this year, ESPECIALLY in the red zone.
IMHO one of the key stats I will be looking for this year will be the one which looks at the percentage of drives into the red zone that can be turned into TD rather than FG's. It will be CRITICAL for the Pats to be in the top 10 in this stat if the playoffs are truly a realistic goal. In close games (and the Pats will be in a ton of them) it won't be the yards we gain or give up, it will be how often the D keeps them out of the endzone and how often WE convert those opportunities We NEED to be in the top quartile in both those stats to be a playoff team.
Gesiki and Henry SHOULD be big in the red zone. Henry had NINE TD's in 2021, but for some reason (well I guess we now KNOW the reason) he slipped to just 2 last season. We will NEED to get OVER 15 TD's between these 2 in 2023.
At any rate the reports of both these guys looking sharp is nothing but a positive
4. The LENGTH of our DB's. For most of Bill's tenure midget DB's were the rule not the exception. Sure every now then there would be a odd man out like Gilmore or Talib. But for the most part we have relied on the Malcolm Butler's of the world to survive. Revis, McCourty, etc were all 5'10 But it's not like he didn't try. JWilliams was the latest stab by Bill to add some length At the S position is also full of 6+ footers. Mills is a S with proven man skills. Dugger has gotten better in coverage each year. Wilson is 6'1 and a 4.7 guy at LB and then of course there is Mapu at 6'3. Then there are Speed and Boldin at 6'3 and 6'2 respectively waiting in the wings (my guess is that at least ONE of those two will eventually make an impact a few years down the road..
Of course we still have the Jones boys at 5'10 5'10, and 5'8, but by and large our CB/S group is in position to better defend the larger WR's and more athletic TE's and Jokers that are coming into the league. You really need these kinds of bigger bodies now, and they are showing up on our roster.
The negative.
1. Trent Brown - At this point he is key to the success we have on the OL. I think we look good to very good on the interior. Owenu, Andrews and Strange could be one of the better interior fronts in the league, especially if Strange makes the leap I expect. Plus there looks like there is a ton of competition for the back up people that will see an improvement in depth talent on the inside. However the OT questions just abound. Brown looked like the only constant. Whether he played LT or RT, when he is in shape and engaged is his a plus player at the position. You can get by with the likes of Reiff, Anderson and the rest if you have 4 very solid guys filling the other spots. BUT......
Trent Brown reported fat, out of shape, and certainly NOT engaged. So what we thought was a positive became a BIG negative and if Brown doesn't spend the next 6 weeks busting his ass, it become a BIG problem that will be very hard to fix at this point. Now you would need TWO guys to come out of nowhere to adequately play key positions on the OL and make this offense effective. Guys like Wynn and Cajuste would look pretty good right now. I will be VERY interested to see if Brown passes the conditioning test and meets his contractual weight requirements. It will be a BIG plus if he does, but right now, to me, this is the biggest off season negative I have seen.
2. The lack of WR's most of the WR's at camp - Everyone from Juju to Boutee missed time at these OTA's. Of the significant players only Bourne was there the whole time. And while HE looked good, it doesn't make up for the work the missing guys missed. A guy like Boutee really needs this kind of work as he becomes even a LONGER shot to make the team OR PS.
3. Lawrence Guy's hold out. The guy has been a GREAT Patriot, one of Bill's best FA signings. Even though he never moved the needle as an impact player, he's been the guy who has optimized the "do your job" ethos. He's the guy who usually was doing the dirty work that allowed others to make the highlight play. A great run defender and from what I have heard a better person. Now I think he's in his 3rd year of a very team friendly 4 year deal at relatively low money ($3.5MM the next 2 years). He's 33 so his leverage is almost nil. But he's a rock in the lockerroom and its not a good idea to lowball a guy who has been such a true "Patriot" kind of guy.
In my mind it's an easy fix. Give him a couple of hundred thousand as a thank you for the job you've done, then add another $800,000 in incentives in things like roster bonuses for games played, snaps, and team success stuff that will at least get him half that money if he is relatively healthy and in the rotation, We can afford it, and he deserves it, even though his snaps will likely decline and his impact will be lowered by the adding of White, and the development of Ukalele. As a "player" he's probably being paid what he deserves at this point of his career,, but he's the kind of guy that it is good policy to throw him a small bone.
So in closing, if someone had paid me to write one of these articles, this is what you would have gotten. Like most of them you read it is full of generalities that you already know, and not very relevant because (to echo a refrain) it is still JUST shorts and t-shirts. BUT I hope I added just a few insights or things that might make you go hmm to be worth the read AND (Ian) you got it for free.
), I decided to do one myself.DISCLAIMER: This is shorts and t-shirts my friends, so anything ANYONE says (Including myself) must he viewed with the largest grain of salt you can imagine
The POSITIVES
1 The Defense IS going to be very good. A top 10 defense.....at least.
a. This defense is going to be FAST. Can you remember the last time "fast" and the Patriots defense were even used in the same sentence. You probably can't because it has never happened, at least in this century. We've had "big", "tough" "physical", etc used the last 23 years, but never "fast". Well it looks like we can FINALLY add "fast" to the adjective list. Mapu, Peppers, Wilson, ALL the Jones boys, Mills and Gonzales give the Pats a TON of speed on all 3 levels of the defense.
Remember that we live in an era where 4.5 speed is considered on the slow side for a WR. Where the rules make it VERY difficult to be physical with receivers. Where you are actively "encouraged" NOT to touch the QB. So defenses, by RULE, are at an extreme DISADVANTAGE going into every game. (disclaimer: it should be noted that I never played much offense after HS and started on the defensive side of the ball coaching and after my 3rd year as an assistant was calling and coordinating defenses and continued to do so as a HC, so I might be slightly biased on this topic) Big, tough, physical defenses just aren't going to do it anymore in these conditions. One of the reasons BILL is the GOAT of coaches is because he NEVER went "down with the ship" with ANY one "system". As the game changed Bill has ALWAYS changed with it. In fact has LED the change on several occasions. So as WR's and TE's have gotten bigger and more athletic, defense have GOT to change as well.
White runs a 4.79 40
. To put that into perspective that is faster than Rodney Harrison but at 6'6 285. Speed just doesn't have to be limited to the 2nd and 3rd levels. Mapu WAS the most questioned pick in our draft, and now he is the most lauded. He adds not only speed, but flexibility, but more on that later. Mills was a "good" CB, but he's always been a "better" S. He will be bring CB speed at the S position. The 3 Jones boys and and Peppers and Wilson are ALL speed guys as well, and Gonzales has 4.3 speed and the quickest hips since Fergie of the "black eyed peas"b. This defense is going to be "flexible". And that is going to be key to its success. The usual position titles we give to players aren't going to work as much this year, though the term "positionless" isn't going to be correct either. I took a 3 mile walk the other day and for most of that hour+ time I was thinking of all the things I could do with a guy like Mapu who looks like he can play on all 3 levels. Terms like LB and S are going to blur folks. There will be LOTS of different personnel combinations this season which will add recognition problems for the offense as well as added depth
This flexibility even extends to the DL where guys like Wise White, and Judon can play all over the DL from outside to inside. This is a pretty athletic DL so loop and slash stunts are going to be used effectively like we saw last year. We haven't had a really effective blitzer from the 2ndary since Rodney. Could Mapu be a bigger faster version and an effective rusher from all THREE levels? (Boy that pick looks better now, doesn't it?
)Believe it or not LANGUAGE plays a big part in this. It's one thing to put x's and O's on the board and create responsibilities and move guys around, its another to be able to translate all that "flexibility" into verbiage that can be said in 5 or 6 words. Think about that for a sec it would be a nightmare to develop. Fortunately the team of Jarod and Steve seem to have one in place. AND even more fortunately by all reports the players have seemed to have grasped it.
I really liked the Peppers signing last year. He was OK, but he wasn't the impact player I had hoped. So hearing Bill praise Peppers so much was gratifying, but the quote I liked best was when Peppers said, he can now "play fast". Because THAT is a key distinction that a lot of fans fail to make. There is a big difference between BEING fast and PLAYING fast. That is the thing we are hoping to see from a player like Thornton. He IS fast, but can he PLAY fast?
This distinction goes to ALL players. I constantly remark how relatively slow Rodney Harrison was, but Rodney PLAYED faster than his actual speed...a LOT faster. If I am a 4.8 guy and I can recognize, anticipate, or process a play just 3 tenths of a second faster than the 4.6 guy, then I can beat him to the spot I need to be. That is what "playing fast" means to me. It's not just playing without thinking and just "reacting to what you see"; it's how fast you REACT to what you see.
I don't think they defense is going to be physically dominant like those old D's of the early aughts. (those guy beat the **** out of teams even when they lost). but they WILL be very hard for teams to prepare for because of all the position flexibility AND speed. I was very good sometimes last year, and very bad a few times as well. Hopefully the added speed, flexibility and depth will aid in a more consistent result, as well as the advantage of having most of the team back in the same system.
Bottom line, I predict that when you first get a chance to see this defense in action, whether its at TC or on TV for preseason games one of your first reactions is going to be "boy, they look fast".
2. Mac looked good. There is nothing the Mac naysayers can say to dispute this. Of course, like I said to start, this is ONLY shorts and t-shirts and relatively meaningless, there WERE a few things that can make us hopeful. Most importantly he looked like was "in control" of the offense. He ran the offense confidently. He quickly made all the presnap adjustments and calls, and was decisive and VERY accurate with his throws. He looked a bit bigger and stronger, and added a bit more zip on his ball. What more can we ask.....AT HIS POINT.
I think I saw some tweet from a writer who said Mac was something like 52-58 in the 3 OTA's, and while that's a meaningless stat given the context, you can't help by being encouraged by THAT kind of accuracy. The QB controversy is over barring injury. The only question now is do we get the 2021 version of Mac, or the 2021 PLUS version we will need to compete in our division. Lots of questions still to be answered and answering will be a process that will go on from now until January.
3. The TE's. IF Giseki pans out then we will FINALLY see the vision the Pats had at the position when we signed both Smith and Henry in the 2021 spending spree. Now it's a bit unfair to put Gesiki in as the kind of TE we envision when we think of Gronk. Gesiki more fits the term "Joker" which is now being used to describe the evolution of the TE position the way it is played today by guys like Kelce. Still he is 6'5 245 and often works with the WR on skill drills. Now he might not be a good blocker as reports have said, but if he is just a WILLING blocker he can be a big asset. Either way Gesiki and Henry will be an important asset this year, ESPECIALLY in the red zone.
IMHO one of the key stats I will be looking for this year will be the one which looks at the percentage of drives into the red zone that can be turned into TD rather than FG's. It will be CRITICAL for the Pats to be in the top 10 in this stat if the playoffs are truly a realistic goal. In close games (and the Pats will be in a ton of them) it won't be the yards we gain or give up, it will be how often the D keeps them out of the endzone and how often WE convert those opportunities We NEED to be in the top quartile in both those stats to be a playoff team.
Gesiki and Henry SHOULD be big in the red zone. Henry had NINE TD's in 2021, but for some reason (well I guess we now KNOW the reason) he slipped to just 2 last season. We will NEED to get OVER 15 TD's between these 2 in 2023.
At any rate the reports of both these guys looking sharp is nothing but a positive
4. The LENGTH of our DB's. For most of Bill's tenure midget DB's were the rule not the exception. Sure every now then there would be a odd man out like Gilmore or Talib. But for the most part we have relied on the Malcolm Butler's of the world to survive. Revis, McCourty, etc were all 5'10 But it's not like he didn't try. JWilliams was the latest stab by Bill to add some length At the S position is also full of 6+ footers. Mills is a S with proven man skills. Dugger has gotten better in coverage each year. Wilson is 6'1 and a 4.7 guy at LB and then of course there is Mapu at 6'3. Then there are Speed and Boldin at 6'3 and 6'2 respectively waiting in the wings (my guess is that at least ONE of those two will eventually make an impact a few years down the road..
Of course we still have the Jones boys at 5'10 5'10, and 5'8, but by and large our CB/S group is in position to better defend the larger WR's and more athletic TE's and Jokers that are coming into the league. You really need these kinds of bigger bodies now, and they are showing up on our roster.
The negative.
1. Trent Brown - At this point he is key to the success we have on the OL. I think we look good to very good on the interior. Owenu, Andrews and Strange could be one of the better interior fronts in the league, especially if Strange makes the leap I expect. Plus there looks like there is a ton of competition for the back up people that will see an improvement in depth talent on the inside. However the OT questions just abound. Brown looked like the only constant. Whether he played LT or RT, when he is in shape and engaged is his a plus player at the position. You can get by with the likes of Reiff, Anderson and the rest if you have 4 very solid guys filling the other spots. BUT......
Trent Brown reported fat, out of shape, and certainly NOT engaged. So what we thought was a positive became a BIG negative and if Brown doesn't spend the next 6 weeks busting his ass, it become a BIG problem that will be very hard to fix at this point. Now you would need TWO guys to come out of nowhere to adequately play key positions on the OL and make this offense effective. Guys like Wynn and Cajuste would look pretty good right now. I will be VERY interested to see if Brown passes the conditioning test and meets his contractual weight requirements. It will be a BIG plus if he does, but right now, to me, this is the biggest off season negative I have seen.
2. The lack of WR's most of the WR's at camp - Everyone from Juju to Boutee missed time at these OTA's. Of the significant players only Bourne was there the whole time. And while HE looked good, it doesn't make up for the work the missing guys missed. A guy like Boutee really needs this kind of work as he becomes even a LONGER shot to make the team OR PS.
3. Lawrence Guy's hold out. The guy has been a GREAT Patriot, one of Bill's best FA signings. Even though he never moved the needle as an impact player, he's been the guy who has optimized the "do your job" ethos. He's the guy who usually was doing the dirty work that allowed others to make the highlight play. A great run defender and from what I have heard a better person. Now I think he's in his 3rd year of a very team friendly 4 year deal at relatively low money ($3.5MM the next 2 years). He's 33 so his leverage is almost nil. But he's a rock in the lockerroom and its not a good idea to lowball a guy who has been such a true "Patriot" kind of guy.
In my mind it's an easy fix. Give him a couple of hundred thousand as a thank you for the job you've done, then add another $800,000 in incentives in things like roster bonuses for games played, snaps, and team success stuff that will at least get him half that money if he is relatively healthy and in the rotation, We can afford it, and he deserves it, even though his snaps will likely decline and his impact will be lowered by the adding of White, and the development of Ukalele. As a "player" he's probably being paid what he deserves at this point of his career,, but he's the kind of guy that it is good policy to throw him a small bone.
So in closing, if someone had paid me to write one of these articles, this is what you would have gotten. Like most of them you read it is full of generalities that you already know, and not very relevant because (to echo a refrain) it is still JUST shorts and t-shirts. BUT I hope I added just a few insights or things that might make you go hmm to be worth the read AND (Ian) you got it for free.
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