The Defensive Front

[PowerRunRevival]

I am very curious how the front 7 is deployed.

In the past 7 man fronts (3/4 or 4/3) were the base defense and often the defense that plays the most snaps. Now with teams playing more spread 3 receiver looks the "base defense" is actually more of a nickel. I expect the most used defense to be a 3-3-5, 4-2-5 or 2-4-5. In other words I'm curious about what the most used linebacker/d-line is.

My guess would be Anderson, Godchaux, Guy, KVN, Hightower and Judon. Now that the Pats have more depth I expect a lot more substitutions to keep players fresh but I have no idea what "front 7" combo the team will go to when the game is on the lab and they need a stop.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I am very curious how the front 7 is deployed.

In the past 7 man fronts (3/4 or 4/3) were the base defense and often the defense that plays the most snaps. Now with teams playing more spread 3 receiver looks the "base defense" is actually more of a nickel. I expect the most used defense to be a 3-3-5, 4-2-5 or 2-4-5. In other words I'm curious about what the most used linebacker/d-line is.

My guess would be Anderson, Godchaux, Guy, KVN, Hightower and Judon. Now that the Pats have more depth I expect a lot more substitutions to keep players fresh but I have no idea what "front 7" combo the team will go to when the game is on the lab and they need a stop.

I thought this was a pretty good article....

Patriots were taking ‘Sub is the new base’ to new heights in 2020

No other team in football used as many five-plus defensive back looks that New England.

www.patspulpit.com

Pats were in sub a whopping 94.8% of the time in 2020.

Historically there are in sub ~75% and of the 75%, 50%/25% nickel/dime.

I attribute the spike to 94.8% to a lack in quality front 7 personnel and expect them to be more in-line with the 75% in 2021.

So not sure there is an answer to your question just yet but we do know they now have a crap-ton on 3-4 and 4-3 DTs/DEs a few "edge" guys and a bunch of stand up LBs.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I thought this was a pretty good article....

Patriots were taking ‘Sub is the new base’ to new heights in 2020

No other team in football used as many five-plus defensive back looks that New England.

www.patspulpit.com

Pats were in sub a whopping 94.8% of the time in 2020.

Historically there are in sub ~75% and of the 75%, 50%/25% nickel/dime.

I attribute the spike to 94.8% to a lack in quality front 7 personnel and expect them to be more in-line with the 75% in 2021.

So not sure there is an answer to your question just yet but we do know they now have a crap-ton on 3-4 and 4-3 DTs/DEs a few "edge" guys and a bunch of stand up LBs.

This makes sense. Nickel is really the base especially with so many 3WR sets to defend against. We should go back to 3-4 more with a better front7. We got gouged far too often on run defense.

 

[Ring 6]

Starters are WIse-Gadcheaux-Guy
Anderson and Barmore are locks. If Bb
Wants more of a Backup NG then Davis could beat out Cowart. Not sure what to make of Adams til camp

We don’t “start” 3 IOL. Those 3 guy will almost never be on the field together.
Anderson will play more than Wise who will be a situational player ( inside rusher mostly. Even his big DE role which is small would be better played by Anderson)

 

[Ring 6]

I thought this was a pretty good article....

Patriots were taking ‘Sub is the new base’ to new heights in 2020

No other team in football used as many five-plus defensive back looks that New England.

www.patspulpit.com

Pats were in sub a whopping 94.8% of the time in 2020.

Historically there are in sub ~75% and of the 75%, 50%/25% nickel/dime.

I attribute the spike to 94.8% to a lack in quality front 7 personnel and expect them to be more in-line with the 75% in 2021.

So not sure there is an answer to your question just yet but we do know they now have a crap-ton on 3-4 and 4-3 DTs/DEs a few "edge" guys and a bunch of stand up LBs.

It wasn’t really a spike it’s been happening for years now. At least since 2018

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Davis might be a dark horse to push for 53 outright if he can finally stay healthy..

Very big guy, 3rd round pick of the Ravens, 29 years old, and has a lot of talent but has never put it all together. At 29 he is running out of options. He played well for a few games, but the concussions for a DT makes me wonder if the Pats will ever depend on him. End of the roster guy I think, but with his physical strength and ability he should be more.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

It wasn’t really a spike it’s been happening for years now. At least since 2018

Whatever it takes to stop the run. I get frustrated when there is 150+ yards rushing against us. The opposing team running it down our throats and Cam scaring worms ruins the fun of my Sunday beer celebration. Not sure what the base mix will be, but I am sure with BB's moves this offseason he is tired of getting run over as well. Thank God.

 

[RobertWeathers]

It wasn’t really a spike it’s been happening for years now. At least since 2018

Going from 75% to 95% seems like a spike to me

 

[Sicilian]

Whatever it takes to stop the run. I get frustrated when there is 150+ yards rushing against us. The opposing team running it down our throats and Cam scaring worms ruins the fun of my Sunday beer celebration. Not sure what the base mix will be, but I am sure with BB's moves this offseason he is tired of getting run over as well. Thank God.

It's not even the aggregate yards that bothers me. It's seeing most of our 3rd down situations be 3rd and 2, 3rd and 1, etc. For all their shortcomings last year, the Pats secondary was still top notch. If they could have kept the majority of 3rd downs to 6 or longer, they could have actually utilized that strength.

 

[mgteich]

It wasn’t really a spike it’s been happening for years now. At least since 2018

at least

 

[mgteich]

Going from 75% to 95% seems like a spike to me

We used more because our front six/seven was so bad, and our defensive backs were so good. Call Dugger a LB and the numbers go down.

 

[RobertWeathers]

We used more because our front six/seven was so bad, and our defensive backs were so good. Call Dugger a LB and the numbers go down.

Yep.

 

[Ring 6]

Going from 75% to 95% seems like a spike to me

They were way over 75% before last year.

 

[RobertWeathers]

They were way over 75% before last year.

source?

Were they 95%

 

[Ring 6]

We used more because our front six/seven was so bad, and our defensive backs were so good. Call Dugger a LB and the numbers go down.

source?

Were they 95%

I watched it and tracked it and yeah pretty close.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I watched it and tracked it and yeah pretty close.

The NEP were in sub 95% of the time in 2014-2019?

EDIT: Pretty close. In 2018 they were in Nickel/Dime 87%

2018 Defensive Personnel Analysis

Base defenses continue to be comically misnamed, as nickel remains the standard NFL defense. Will dime packages be then next big thing? Will the defensive coordinator musical chairs change much in 2019? And is base actually better than nickel, after all?

www.footballoutsiders.com

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

It's not even the aggregate yards that bothers me. It's seeing most of our 3rd down situations be 3rd and 2, 3rd and 1, etc. For all their shortcomings last year, the Pats secondary was still top notch. If they could have kept the majority of 3rd downs to 6 or longer, they could have actually utilized that strength.

Can you imagine how good the secondary would be if the Pats can teach Barmore and Godeaux/Guy/Wise to collapse the pocket? And we had two edge rushers to hurry the pass? We would win a lot of games.

 

[Ring 6]

The NEP were in sub 95% of the time in 2014-2019?

EDIT: Pretty close. In 2018 they were in Nickel/Dime 87%

2018 Defensive Personnel Analysis

Base defenses continue to be comically misnamed, as nickel remains the standard NFL defense. Will dime packages be then next big thing? Will the defensive coordinator musical chairs change much in 2019? And is base actually better than nickel, after all?

www.footballoutsiders.com

The difference is situation (most most nickel + is short yardage) or opponent. I’d suspect most of <5 db in 2018 was vs the jets who tried to play power football.
The scheme hasn’t changed but the teams and schemes we play 5 dbs against has ratcheted up to pretty much all of them.

 

[hornetfb85]

One way or another it is going to be interesting to see who is on the 53 come September (Injuries obviously always a possibility)
DL: Godchaux, Anderson, Guy, Wise, and Barmore. Cowart, Adams and Davis battling for 1 spot maybe.
Edge/LB: Judon, Hightower, Van Noy, Winovich, Uche, Perkins, Jennings, Bentley, McGrone (Health). McGrone not healthy McMillan steps in.
CB: Gilmore, Jackson, Jones, Bethel.
S: McCourty, Phillips, Mills, Dugger, Davis.
Bryant, Williams,Bledsoe, Free Agent battle for final 2 spots in DBackfield

 

[DropKickFlutie]

The NEP were in sub 95% of the time in 2014-2019?

EDIT: Pretty close. In 2018 they were in Nickel/Dime 87%

2018 Defensive Personnel Analysis

Base defenses continue to be comically misnamed, as nickel remains the standard NFL defense. Will dime packages be then next big thing? Will the defensive coordinator musical chairs change much in 2019? And is base actually better than nickel, after all?

www.footballoutsiders.com

This is why Chung was so valuable and vital. Nickel most of the time only works if the SS is elite at stopping the run in the box and can also cover TEs adequately. No coincidence all 6 rings were with elite SS play.

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