TheRightTool
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- Jan 19, 2015
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CLICK HERE to Register for a free account and login for a smoother ad-free experience. It's easy, and only takes a few moments.I called this when they were 5-2.
People were still saying this week 10 wind would be cake for them so they are NOT what a lot of “we” thought they were.
Not only did you call it, but you called why. You said the high-rate of turnovers was luck based, and that their actual defensive and offensive production was lacking. You claimed that once the turnovers dried up they would be mediocre. I have given credit to you elsewhere for this prediction, but it is worth repeating.
So who's the new boogeyman team on this board for the Game Day thread all-stars?
So who's the new boogeyman team on this board for the Game Day thread all-stars?
I am sure there are already enough people ****ting their pants about Kansas City.
It was pretty much the same reason why the same posters that didnt take the Bills serious this year also scoffed at people thinking Miami or Denver were any good last year. If you consistently play of the statistical edge and need the other team to shoot themselves into their foot or sheer luck to win games then odds are that it will run out at some point as things regress to the mean.
Not only did you call it, but you called why. You said the high-rate of turnovers was luck based, and that their actual defensive and offensive production was lacking. You claimed that once the turnovers dried up they would be mediocre. I have given credit to you elsewhere for this prediction, but it is worth repeating.
That is a very good point. I makes me want to investigate that open-source football analytics metric that I mentioned to @BradyFTW! . Perhaps we can identify over and under performing teams systematically. I can find the posts where I talk about it if folks want a reminder.
If you ever see me "****ting my pants" about another team, it is because I prefer to over-respect teams as Belichick preaches. Trying to internalize that Belichickian mantra is part of my personal enjoyment as a fan. Perhaps others feel the same way.
As often there is a difference between respecting a team and being able to articulate why (which you are obviously more than capable of) or just looking at someones win/loss record and saying Miami won 6 of their last 9, they are hot and dangerous. It all boils down to rationality (e.g. this is a bad matchup because they do this well) vs. irrationality (e.g. how people get overconfident/chickenshit based on irrelevant history against certain teams).
BB: Well of course you always prepare for your opponents’ best. What else would you prepare for? They’re going to come in here and turn over a ball eight times? I mean, you don’t prepare for that. You prepare for a team to come in here and play their best football against you, and how are you going to play your best football against them?… It would be irresponsible to coach a team and tell them, “OK fellas, the team that’s coming in here is not going to play well. So we should expect them to play a bad game, so why don’t we play one that’s just a little better than their bad game?” I think I’d be totally irresponsible. I can’t imagine any coach ever doing that. I mean I couldn’t imagine that. So I wouldn’t know how to prepare a team the way you’re talking about. I couldn’t even fathom that… To me it’s just the most irresponsible thing I’ve ever heard of. I can’t even fathom it.
If you ever see me "****ting my pants" about another team, it is because I prefer to over-respect teams as Belichick preaches. Trying to internalize that Belichickian mantra is part of my personal enjoyment as a fan. Perhaps others feel the same way.
That is a very good point. I makes me want to investigate that open-source football analytics metric that I mentioned to @BradyFTW! . Perhaps we can identify over and under performing teams systematically. I can find the posts where I talk about it if folks want a reminder.
@AndyJohnson Acknowledge my acknowledgment of you!