Preview Thread NE @ NYJ

[Ring 6]

This is almost unreal.. Id guess #1 clean up priority for BB

Would seem he already has
Week 1 17/184
Since 51/215

Let's never see the 326 base again.

 

[Ring 6]

I would argue mirror image usually means diametrical as in the total opposite (ie. mirrored not the same, left is right; right is left). No ?

To express identical I would use carbon copy or something like that.

I think mirror image is typically used to mean same, but that clarifies thanks.

 

[luuked]

I think mirror image is typically used to mean same, but that clarifies thanks.

I edited it to diametrical to make it more obvious. Thanks for pointing it out.

 

[luuked]

Let's never see the 326 base again.

I doubt we will see it soon again.

It seems to me like one of those things that they conceptually came up with in the offseason and tried out but it repeatedly didnt work. And if a thing doesnt work for the first 2-3 weeks it is one of the things you just drop and accept as something that is not part of a teams identity.

Next year though...

 

[long distance]

Came to post those links. Listened today to his podcasts on the Jets. Good stuff..

What makes this so interesting to me is what Chatham said in the Panthers breakdown podcast about how Carolina kept coming back to slants against Butler because he just could not deal with them on a physical level and the Pats never gave him help below (because DMac got send to deal closer to the box with ****son).

The entire section can be heard here: Week 5: Panthers Game Dissection, Bucs TNF Preview — The REAL THING Patriots Podcast — Overcast

Let me know if the way I bookmarked the podcast works for people to hear the entire section by Chatham. If it does then I will start using my bookmarks of his just flatout amazing breakdowns more often.

works! go ahead..

 

[luuked]

works! go ahead..

Cool.. if I find some time tmw I will post most of my bookmarks to the Panthers thread even though its pretty old by now.

In terms of insight into the game I cant stress enough how awesome Chathams new podcast is. If you remember his football by football clips from last season this is essentially a weekly 1h+ dissection of almost the entire game drive-by-drive with a ****ton of explanations. It is like a movie directors commentary track except good. Personally it might be the best stuff I have ever heard in podcast format.

Podcast Archives - Football by Football

 

[long distance]

The strangest thing about that stat is that the other four defenses on that list vary from good to average by DVOA: Chiefs are 11th, Panthers are 10th, Jaguars are 7th and Chargers are 16th. The Pats, meanwhile, are 32nd, and are as far from 31st and 31 is from 20th. We're a DVOA trainwreck.

As damning as that stat seems, YPC allowed on first down doesn't seem to correlate all that strongly with overall defensive effectiveness at this point in the season.

True. But it correlates strongly with the word unacceptable for BB

Would seem he already has
Week 1 17/184
Since 51/215

Let's never see the 326 base again.

Long way to go.. MP was very vocal about it vs TB. They improved later.
Branch+VV is a big loss there at the moment.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I wonder if you would take away the big busted plays (and resulting touchdowns) on third down how much our DVOA would improve. Just to make clear I am not saying we should just ignore that those happen but I am just curious how effected the DVOA is by things that I consider easier fixable (eg. communicaton) than others (eg. DL run issues).

If we can get close to 16-20 (ie. average) on defense when removing the big plays then I wouldnt get too concerned with all those advanced metrics unless you dont believe the coaching staff can fix the communication issues.

The difference between where we are and 20th is the same as the difference between 20th and 1st, so we've got a long way to go. The good news, though, is that DVOA weights recency pretty heavily: early-season results get discounted an awful lot over the course of the season, based on the reasonable observation that how a team performs in week 14 says a lot more about its current state than how it performed in week 1. So if the Pats show sustained improvement, that will be reflected pretty significantly in DVOA, mostly due to that improvement but also because weeks 1, 3 and 4 will count for a lot less than more recent performances. We've got a long way to go, but ending the season in the 16-20 range certainly isn't out of the question. I dunno if we'll get there, but it's not an unreasonable goal to set.

Also, FWIW, our DVOA ranking is far worse against the pass (dead last) than against the rush (22nd). Which is kinda good news since based purely on personnel I'm more optimistic about the pass defense improving.

 

[luuked]

Also, FWIW, our DVOA ranking is far worse against the pass (dead last) than against the rush (22nd). Which is kinda good news since based purely on personnel I'm more optimistic about the pass defense improving.

This is kinda what I was curious about. I understand what DVOA means and how it has a recency bias but was just curious if we would pretend for a second that the miscommunications didnt happen how bad the remaining overall defense would be. Again, it is just a thought experiment and I dont think it means anything but since I am completely convinced that by December we will have a top 7 secondary it made me curious how bad the other issues currently are.

 

[Ring 6]

I doubt we will see it soon again.

It seems to me like one of those things that they conceptually came up with in the offseason and tried out but it repeatedly didnt work. And if a thing doesnt work for the first 2-3 weeks it is one of the things you just drop and accept as something that is not part of a teams identity.

Next year though...

Actually they scrapped it after 1 game.
That was my reference, a large part of run d problems were in that game and due to that scheme.

 

[Ring 6]

True. But it correlates strongly with the word unacceptable for BB



Long way to go.. MP was very vocal about it vs TB. They improved later.
Branch+VV is a big loss there at the moment.

Run d had one bad drive can Tampa (when they came out in 335 base) and was excellent otherwise.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Their LB'S have been average to really bad over the past few years.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Sorry for the off topic post, but I just want to commend everyone for really boosting the level of discourse on this site this season. Between all the rewind threads and now this preview thread, it's been a joy to read and I feel like I've learned more about strategy than I've ever truly known before. I'd name names but don't want to exclude anyone; You know who you are.

This is a far cry from the "I don't care, I can't stand it!" threads that used to dominate the main forum. The draft forum has always been insightful, and now you guys have brought it to the main forum, and it's much appreciated.

 

[supafly]

Would seem he already has
Week 1 17/184
Since 51/215

Let's never see the 326 base again.

Even taking the KC game out of the picture and cherry picking numbers over the past month, the 4.22 YPC would still place us 20th amongst rushing defenses.

I'm not sure that I'd blame everything on the 3-2-6 defense and claim that it's "cleaned up," (you're right that it was cleaned up in comparison to week one, but that's a pretty low bar) but it's good to see some recent progress being made. Let's hope it continues.

 

[luuked]

Actually they scrapped it after 1 game.
That was my reference, a large part of run d problems were in that game and due to that scheme.

Not sure where you see me saying anything about the 326 being in more than a game. I was talking about stuff a team tries out early that clearly doesnt seem to work for a given personnel that just gets scrapped.

 

[goheels22002]

This is almost unreal.. Id guess #1 clean up priority for BB

Every way you look at the Patriots defense, it sucks. I expect a trade or free agent pickup or two in the next couple of weeks. The Jets offer an opportunity to get the statistical numbers trending the right way, but every position group on defense has to improve in a hurry. If they screw around with the Jets, the Patriots can get beat, especially on the road.

 

[Uptown]

Via Pats Pulpit:

“Sunday’s game against the New York Jets should also put the Patriots struggles into perspective because PFF ranks the Jets offensive line 31st out of 32 teams.”

“The Jets offensive line is has allowed 10 sacks so far this season, tied for fourth-most,” PFF writes. “But overall, their offensive line has not been that bad in pass protection as they rank 18th in the league by allowing 45 total pressures, including the 10 sacks, on 168 pass-blocking snaps. However, they have been unable to replace center Nick Mangold so far as Wesley Johnson currently ranks 34th among 34 qualifying centers with an overall grade of 32.4. The Jets offensive line has also struggled in the running game as they average just 1.02 yards before contact on inside zone runs, their most frequently used run concept.”

“Not only is Wesley Johnson the lowest rated center in the league, but guards James Carpenter(48.2, 44th) and Brian Winters (44.5, 51st) are two of the lowest graded guards in the NFL. Tackles Kelvin Beachum (69.3, 31st) and Brandon Shell (43.4, 57th) are just a poor of a tandem as Solder and Cannon have been in 2017.”

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Combined age of the QB's will be 78 years old. hahaa

Wait! You mean there's a chance I could play?

 

[PP2]

The Jets look disciplined to me. Unloading all those high-priced veterans (see: Revis, Darrelle) was the best move they could have made. If the Patriots don't play well, and the referees continue to help the opposition, it could be a grinder next week.

With that out of the way, the bottom line is that the Jets suck. Pure and simple.

I don't think they suck this year- in the past all we had to do was shut down Marshall/Decker and contain the RB and that was it for the Jets offense. This year, all offensive players are equal threats. Morton has done a great job resetting the Jets offense, really mixing up personnel and packages and like you said, they are a lot more disciplined now- controlled short combo routes, using the versatility of the WR's, and often the RB will become a decoy out of the backfield so that's one less LB over the middle. They've gone to using a lot of motion to force defenses to declare.

I think we'll win, but our defense will be stressed again, and stressed in the worst possible way. TB was dumb not to use bunches against us, but we're going to get a heavy dose of that and stacks, again.

Fortunately their weakness is McCown who is a below-average NFL QB. The Jets are a good QB from being a serious threat to the AFC, and to us.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I would argue mirror image usually means diametrical as in the total opposite (ie. mirrored not the same, left is right; right is left). No ?

To express identical I would use carbon copy or something like that.

Ahh, interesting. Your explanation makes considerable sense, although I've never seen it in colloquial use. They're the converse of our team. Our antipodean rivals.