Patriots / Brady Discussion

[Chris Stevenson]

Fact 2016 brady passes in shot gun 323 under center 109
2017 shot gun 428 under center 153
“A lot more is a dead giveaway”? 74.7% vs 73.7%.


The deep routes are part of play design and have always been there. They are getting open more often and therefore thrown more.


Of course better health = better football.

Yes, they've run more plays this year than last. Agree.

But, yes, 153/109 is certainly more and I applaud it.

 

[Chris Stevenson]

I'm saying that height of the pass wasn't the core issue. That was the shoulder the ball was thrown to. Whether that was on Brady, or Welker, is something they can tells us one day. From there, Welker made his try, and still should have caught the ball, but didn't.

You can ask anyone who was on this board at the time, and you can ask anyone who's been around long enough to see me posting about Welker, and you'll find that I was as big a Welker supporter and defender as there was around here. But, on that play, Welker should have had the ball.



I watched the play. It's obvious. Shoulder, not height.

Inaccurate throw, though. Both were off on the play, not just Welker. Brady is not perfect. Sorry to alert you of this fact.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Everything about the game you say is accurate.

I'm not sure what I said you are disagreeing with? They forced a ton of TOs in the reg season and when the needed to in this game they didn't.

Which is the problem with a "turnover-based" defense.

And that's also what drives me nuts when people say "Yards given up don't matter. Just points allowed."

Superficially, that's of course true. But it matters a very great deal how the points aren't being allowed. Are they not being allowed because opposing teams march down the field but then the defense can get some turnovers? Are they not marching down the field at all? Do they march down the field but then the defense tightens up and can stop them without needing turnovers to do so?

Some things are more reproduceable than others. All things being equal I'd prefer to have a defense that can get stops without needing to do it via turnover.

 

[Ring 6]

Correct. Part of NE's playbook pulls some from West Coast concepts. It's a pretty deep playbook and has grown through the years.

Brady is holding onto the ball more this year within the over-called deep routes to Cooks, yes.

Teams are singling Gronk in man, mauling him off camera, and bracketing Cooks.

It's up to McDaniels and Brady to know that and attack in other ways.

I’m sorry, but this is just do wrong.
You said we run a WCO offense, not you are saying there are things deep in the playbook that are also used in the WCO (like every offense in existence doesn’t have shared concepts) which is it?

Brady had thrown 7 passes more than 30 yards downfield to cooks. Are you saying less than 1 pass every other game signals a change in philosophy and holding onto the ball?

Overall he threw 18 long passes in 12 games last year and had thrown 27 in 16 games this year.
That is 1.7 per game instead of 1.5.

Gronk is singled???? Wow.

 

[luuked]

I know, I listened to the pod. I just was wondering whether there is a disparity between ordinal ranking and real numbers, and whether a few extra attempts might move NE closer to the top than you might expect.

I also don't think it is fair to say NE would be a clear #1 if they are a BBDB, since there are clearly other defenses that are just bad which would be higher anyway.

Personally, I find his arguments about asset usage to be far more compelling that the FG or points allowed comps.

According to the cumulative stats at [1] we are right in the middle. And to be honest on average I think you can claim the same thing about other teams in terms of a few extra attempts here and there. Especially because other teams had more turnovers going their way which could have been FGs.

[1] NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Opponent Field Goal Attempts per Game on TeamRankings.com

If we were really fully into bend dont break and turned TDs mostly into FGs then I would expect us to be among the top teams with at least some substantial gap from the average team. Similar to how the Jaguars and Steelers have 55/56 sacks with the next highest team being around 50.

I get what you are saying it is just that I think there is some value in putting the yardage in contrast with TDs and FGs. I could not find it but I would be interested into yardage given up by team in their own half.

 

[Deus Irae]

Inaccurate throw, though. Both were off on the play, not just Welker. Brady is not perfect. Sorry to alert you of this fact.

Whether the throw was accurate or not is not the issue. You either trolling or being a really lousy analyst is an issue. Your lying in your posts is an issue.

As for the throw, it's level of accuracy is dependent upon which shoulder that throw was supposed to go to, and both Welker and Brady have kept quiet on that.


Now, do yourself a favor. Change the subject. First rule of holes, and all.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, they've run more plays this year than last. Agree.

But, yes, 153/109 is certainly more and I applaud it.

Lol
I guess you are a new patriot fan, brady played 12 games last year and 16 this year.
% from shot gun 2016. 74.7
% from shot gun 2017. 73.7
Difference 5 plays or less than 1 every 12 quarters.

 

[luuked]

Some things are more reproduceable than others. All things being equal I'd prefer to have a defense that can get stops without needing to do it via turnover.

Of course and this is why the 2017 version of this team is not as bad or even close to the 2010 and 2011 Patriots. This years defense is legitimately good.

 

[Ring 6]

They had laid an egg for the second straight year. It was six years without getting to the SB. Hindsight says it was a crazy thought. But thats hindsight.

You think a coach gets fired for going 14-2 after 16-0, 11-5 without brady, 10-6 meaning 14-2 was evidence the ship was righted?

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Just because YAC is important, as is a quick release from the QB, doesn't mean the Patriots offense relies heavily on WCO concepts. This year the Pats offense seems less similar, if anything, to WCO, since with JE out and with Hogan hurt a lot, none of our quick or speedy WRs particularly excel at shallow cross routes. Our route trees and defensive reads are also much different than WCO route trees.

 

[Ring 6]

I think we have a 49er fan coming in here and trying to set up a Montana is the goat argument. I shall cease feeding the troll.

 

[Pats1989]

I was wondering if Brady would EVER be criticized accurately and fairly by the media and fans.

He wasn't, and it's evidenced by your comments alone. He wasn't even criticized for his poor 2007 and 2011 titles games and mediocre SB performances thereafter.

I believe SB 42 was piss poor game planning on McD's parts, and Belichick was outcoached by Coughlin. I can't give Brady too much blame. He kept getting hit, he kept getting up. Even Strahan & other Giants said they gained alot of respect for Brady continously getting up. They ( Strahan) said Brady never had fear in his eyes. He put his team in position to win. A dropped int, uncalled hold, and miracle helmet catch was the difference.

The Patriots were a Lee Evans catch away from losing that title game. The fact Brady even got them to the SB, let alone in position to win, was a miracle in itself. That 2011 D wasn't SB caliber.

Brady was " bad" in three noticeable playoff games: 09 Ravens, 10 Jets, Texans last season. Okay, he was atrocious in the Ravens & Jets games. Maybe the Chargers AFCCG could be under the "bad".

 

[luuked]

You think a coach gets fired for going 14-2 after 16-0, 11-5 without brady, 10-6 meaning 14-2 was evidence the ship was righted?

Not sure he thinks at all.

 

[Pats1989]

You think a coach gets fired for going 14-2 after 16-0, 11-5 without brady, 10-6 meaning 14-2 was evidence the ship was righted?

I never thought he would get fired. It's the one time I thought Belichick wasn't
" bullet proof". I should'v re worded better.

Thanks to SB 49 & 51, it's all a moot point.

 

[Ring 6]

I never thought he would get fired. It's the one time I thought Belichick wasn't
" bullet proof". I should'v re worded better.

Thanks to SB 49 & 51, it's all a moot point.

What is the difference between being on the hot seat and being a firing candidate?

 

[luuked]

I believe SB 42 was piss poor game planning on McD's parts, and Belichick was outcoached by Coughlin.

Can you get anymore specific on that and give examples what in the game plan was a bad idea and how Coughlin outcoached BB ? What would you have done instead with our personnel ?

I mean my question is more rhetorical in nature because experience this year has shown me that you are just throwing generalized garbage against a wall but please surprise me.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Which is the problem with a "turnover-based" defense.

And that's also what drives me nuts when people say "Yards given up don't matter. Just points allowed."

Superficially, that's of course true. But it matters a very great deal how the points aren't being allowed. Are they not being allowed because opposing teams march down the field but then the defense can get some turnovers? Are they not marching down the field at all? Do they march down the field but then the defense tightens up and can stop them without needing turnovers to do so?

Some things are more reproduceable than others. All things being equal I'd prefer to have a defense that can get stops without needing to do it via turnover.

Exactly. No too get all dorky but this year the NEP allow 3 Red Zone scoring attempts per game. Less is best. More sucks. Pats are slightly middle.

They are middle of the pack in allowed 3rd downs per game. Less is better obviously.

They are #1 in FG points per game allowed and 14 in FG attempts allowed.

#1 in yards per point. 4th in points per play. 4th in defensive points allowed. 4th in red zone points allowed.

They are 21st in 3rd down D %. at 39%. Thats not awful. Last year they were 36% and 6th. From the looks of the #s 3rd down D in the league got better in 2017.

My take.....they give up a ****load of yards between app 20yd-and NE 30yds but once the offense is in FG range, they lock down big time.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Can you get anymore specific on that and give examples what in the game plan was a bad idea and how Coughlin outcoached BB ? What would you have done instead with our personnel ?

Keeping in mind that Neal went down during the game and that Brady had a badly injured foot.

The one thing I thought at the time -- though I have never, ever gone back and looked it again -- is that they could have done more with screens and underneath stuff to try to slow down the pass rush.

 

[Deus Irae]

Exactly. No too get all dorky but this year the NEP allow 3 Red Zone scoring attempts per game. Less is best. More sucks. Pats are slightly middle.

They are middle of the pack in allowed 3rd downs per game. Less is better obviously.

They are #1 in FG points per game allowed and 14 in FG attempts allowed.

#1 in yards per point. 4th in points per play. 4th in defensive points allowed. 4th in red zone points allowed.

They are 21st in 3rd down D %. at 39%. Thats not awful. Last year they were 36% and 6th. From the looks of the #s 3rd down D in the league got better in 2017.

My take.....they give up a ****load of yards between app 20yd-and NE 30yds but once the offense is in FG range, they lock down big time.

We've seen this before. This is what the team does when it's a weaker defense. The question then becomes whether or not the better teams in the playoffs can exploit that weaker defense. We then see that the concept of GTFB leads to a lot more deep dropping and less aggressive play than we get with the years that they have better defenses.

What's a little bit different this year is where the main weakness is. In the past, the weakest area has generally been the secondary. This year, the weakest area is DE/LB, although there have also been all too many lapses among the DBs.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

And there's another way that yards allowed matters -- it affects the starting field position for the offense.

So there's a balance there of stopping scores, yards allowed, and what your offense can handle.

To take an admittedly silly, extreme case, if I had the choice between a defense that allowed 15ppg but because of the yardage they gave up had their offense averaging starting at its own 5 and a defense that allowed 17ppg but gave up fewer yards and so let the offense start at its own 30 on average, I'd take the latter.