OT-ish: The gambling thread

[supafly]

I already bought the pats from 7 to 6.5 and the packers from 4.5 to 4.

I took the Packers at -4.5. Philly banged up (had to have walkthroughs instead of actual practice last week because too many injuries to practice), on the road, and a short week. Packers have looked better as well.

Unf, I really like that bet. Tempted to drop some more. I think Wentz is a fraud.

I’m going to bet Philly plus the points. Actually, I’m going to wait until right before kickoff when the spread is at its highest and try to buy another point. I’m hoping to try and get it up to PHI+6.

 

[mgcolby]

So last week I expected it to not do great, but it got wooped, which is why I wait until week 5 to really use it as a tool. I put it here just to have a public record of it as I try to see if it does better as it gets games 3 and 4 into it. In the past I used the 1st halves of the 2nd and 3rd preseason game to fill in the gap early in the season. But with so many players not suiting up for preseason this year, I didn't feel that data had any value.

As I said I am not counting last week nor this week. I will start its yearly record next week with 4 full games in the books. But it can only go up, I think...Hope? It was 6-10 ATS and 3-13 SU.

Without further to do here is Week 4.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Colts -6.5 at home against Oakland?

That spread seems off to me. I would think Colts -10. Either there’s some inside info or Vegas doesn’t buy the Colts success yet.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

No hedge ?

I forgot all about it until like the 4th qtr...then i looked at my lost bet section....ugh

 

[supafly]

I had a 19 inning baseball game the other night. It ended at 4:35 am. Who said that baseball is boring? I mean, aside from Tunescribe?

 

[Hyped]

I'd be laying heavy money on Bucs +10.5....

I think the Bucs D can keep the Rams under 24 (Cleveland kept them at 20) meaning Winston and Co. only need to score 14 to cover.....I like Mike Evans getting one bomb for TD at least...and maybe 2-3 figgies.

But the Rams D is pretty good though...

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Navy ML..and Packers was my bet tonight..Lets go Navy

 

[fnordcircle]

I'd be laying heavy money on Bucs +10.5....

The problem is Winston is good for like half of that in pick sixes himself.

 

[fnordcircle]

I had a 19 inning baseball game the other night. It ended at 4:35 am. Who said that baseball is boring? I mean, aside from Tunescribe?

So your point is that baseball is not just boring it also takes too long?

We agree.

 

[supafly]

So your point is that baseball is not just boring it also takes too long?

We agree.

Yeah, they make you earn it over at MLB. The average Red Sox game this year is almost 3.5 hrs.

 

[fnordcircle]

Yeah, they make you earn it over at MLB. The average Red Sox game this year is almost 3.5 hrs.

************, I have entire relationships that don't last that long.

 

[maust]

************, I have entire relationships that don't last that long.

Well when it 'only takes a minute' how much longer do you really want the incidental stuff to run for?

 

[fnordcircle]

Well when it 'only takes a minute' how much longer do you really want the incidental stuff to run for?

I'm a gentleman so I make small talk afterwards. Things like 'thanks dude'.

 

[maust]

I'm a gentleman so I make small talk afterwards. Things like 'thanks dude'.

I usually go with 'I just remembered I'm double parked' and that is why you are a bathhouse legend and I am just another guy.

 

[Froob]

I love Rams -9. That’s really low. Also like Pats -7.5, Jags ML, and Saints ML.

Why does Vegas think the Bucs will be semi competitive in LA? I think they get stomped. They were -6 last week and I thought that was a pick em going in and that was a nice +235 win lol.

I'd be laying heavy money on Bucs +10.5....

I think the Bucs D can keep the Rams under 24 (Cleveland kept them at 20) meaning Winston and Co. only need to score 14 to cover.....I like Mike Evans getting one bomb for TD at least...and maybe 2-3 figgies.

But the Rams D is pretty good though...

I think that’s a real bad idea lol. Bucs are trash. Rams 34-10.

 

[supafly]

I love Rams -9. That’s really low. Also like Pats -7.5, Jags ML, and Saints ML.

Why does Vegas think the Bucs will be semi competitive in LA? I think they get stomped. They were -6 last week and I thought that was a pick em going in and that was a nice +235 win lol.


I think that’s a real bad idea lol. Bucs are trash. Rams 34-10.

It’s not just Vegas, as the line has moved from LA-10 to LA-9, at least at my book.

Considering N.Orleans+3.5, myself (buying up). I like Pittsburgh-3.5 (will try and buy down a bit) on Monday night. I was a believer in the Bears-2.5 as well, although now I’m not feeling as confident as I once was with some of their injuries.

 

[Froob]

It’s not just Vegas, as the line has moved from LA-10 to LA-9, at least at my book.

Considering N.Orleans+3.5, myself (buying up). I like Pittsburgh-3.5 (will try and buy down a bit) on Monday night. I was a believer in the Bears-2.5 as well, although now I’m not feeling as confident as I once was with some of their injuries.

Bears -2.5 sounds about right...Tribusky really bad tho. Outta just go for Saints moneyline. Classic case of a talented home under dog with big home field advantage.

 

[supafly]

Bears -2.5 sounds about right...Tribusky really bad tho. Outta just go for Saints moneyline. Classic case of a talented home under dog with big home field advantage.

Chicago is down to -1.5, now. I’m probably going to lay off. I don’t feel as positive now that Gabriel is out, and their kicker is still dealing with an injury.

Can’t find a damn thing in the 1:00 games, either.

I’d rather play the SNF game more conservatively and have NO+3 or +3.5. I have no problem whatsoever as it pertains to leaving a few bucks on the table if it increases my chances of winning in the first place.

Sunday night and Monday night are the only two games that I feel confident enough to take right now.

 

[fnordcircle]

Not even slightly interested in the Cowboys -3/Saints +3. Too many question marks there and too much Dallas gambling PTSD.

Not touching the Bears -1.5 @ home because I just flat out don't believe in Trubisky.

Slightly tempted by the Bengals -3.5 but mostly on the prospect of taking money from Steelers fans who bet black and gold no matter how clearly crappy their team is.

Giants -3 @ home is very tempting but mostly as a bet on how ridiculously awful the Skins are.

Jags +3 feels like free money but maybe I'm wrong in thinking the Broncos are just pure garbage.

 

[supafly]

Giants -3 @ home is very tempting but mostly as a bet on how ridiculously awful the Skins are.

Jags +3 feels like free money but maybe I'm wrong in thinking the Broncos are just pure garbage.

I’m definitely with you re: NYG-3. The big concern for me is that they could remain one-dimensional since Barkley is out. Last week, Daniel Jones (scrambles) and Sterling Shepard (jet sweeps) were their top two leading rushers. If they can’t get the ground game going it may force more pressure on the rookie QB, while allowing the Redskins to blitz. That, plus it’s a divisional game, etc.

That all said, the Giants could easily win 23-7 or something. I think I want to see another week of an attempt at a ground game, first, but I’m a big believer in Jones at QB, and hit a couple of preseason games with him.

Minshew looks like the real deal to me in JAX. I actually think that he “out Bakers” Baker Mayfield. I’m actually wondering what the hell I do with Nick Foles if I’m calling shots for the Jags. I think they should unload him before the trade deadline. Even injured, he’d have to bring them something halfway decent in return, and it knocks a lot of money off the books.