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La Canfora: Brady unlikely to sign extension, will test free agency

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ross12, Jan 19, 2020.

  1. Tottie

    Tottie Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Titans don't have the defense to stop KC like NE does and they just lost their DC. The rest makes good sense though. NE is still the best option LFG!
     
  2. SVN

    SVN PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club

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    Brady learning the 2 sentence playcall west coast system at this juncture ? I dont know. Plus to play the chiefs twice every yr . Same reason for the chargers. Except LA might be a good launchpad for him for his TB12 sports which i think could be a huge draw for him.
     
  3. SVN

    SVN PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club

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  4. ChrisR2223

    ChrisR2223 Pro Bowl Player

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    As would Vegas I think Gruden would change the verbiage for Tom
     
  5. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So, Vrabel will trade Watson so that he can have Brady for a year or two? I guess that this scenario is possible. More likely is an extension of Watson.
     
  6. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Watson is a Texan.
    Vrabel is a Titan.
     
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  7. Vindicate

    Vindicate Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I really don't see how we sign Brady and give him the weapons he wants. Is it possible at all? Anyone have any scenarios that give him a decent cast while paying him a respectable amount?
     
  8. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    my bad

    I expect Brady and his agent to actually use the 3 days before the season ends to see what's pout there. I see exactly ZERO reason for Brady to sign before he sees the alternatives.
     
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  9. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Brady can test free agency for the 3 days BEFORE free agency officially begins, and the extra $6.75M of cap money kicks in. $6.75M is part of the 2020 cap in any case.
     
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  10. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No, if you restrict Brady to a one year contract.
     
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  11. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    Assuming Brady will go for a one-year deal (which is questionable), what amount would be acceptable to both sides while also maximizing what is sorely needed for free agents?
     
  12. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    For starters, a one deal would have to be similar to last year's one year deal.

    I would think that $30M of new money would be a minimum. If you are worried about the 2020 cap, consider that following:

    WITHOUT BRADY
    $13.5M Brady dead money
    plus the cap for a bridge quarterback (or backup veteran) say $6.5M
    for a total of 2020 cap hit of $20M

    WITH BRADY
    $6.75M
    plus the 2020 cap on a new Brady contract.

    To match the 2020 cap hit without Brady, the new cap hit is restricted to $13.25M

    $4.25M salary
    $27M bonus over 3 years (pushing forward $18M)
    for a total of $20M = ($6.75 + $4.25M + $9M)
     
  13. fnordcircle

    fnordcircle The poster who James White said inspires him. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Tom Brady will never play a game in Oakland.
     
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  14. primetime

    primetime Pro Bowl Player

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    $20m this year, $13.25m the next. Unless Brady truly doesn't care about money in any way, it's hard to fathom him signing that deal. (Personally, I think Brady cares about money less than some have reported, but I also think money provides him a convenient excuse to leave for other reasons which I'm increasingly becoming convinced outweigh his interest in staying.)

    A "bridge QB" probably depends though. Assume Stidham is the starter and maybe Keenum will come for that much (though really he got paid $7.5m last year so unlikely). If Newton gets cut or traded, he might be $20-22m as a starter type (consider that at $16m, Andy Dalton was the cheapest incumbent veteran starter type in football last season). Same for all the other guys like Tannehill or Bridgewater, low $20s is your starting point. It all depends on how sturdy you want that bridge to be.

    Unless the Patriots decide to just roll the dice with Stidham and a middling veteran backup a la Keenum in which case the cost is around $20m, it's hard to envision the Patriots paying the QB position less than $30m next year between a veteran starter (thinking Tannehill, Bridgewater, Newton, Rivers level) and Brady's dead money or otherwise if the money goes to Brady himself.
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2020
  15. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Perhaps I wasn't clear abut the Brady contract. He would get $30M for his 2020 services. I don't think that is crazy low.

    Year two would never happen; I didn't even bother to put such salaries in my post. Put in $30M (2021 and $40M (2022) and we have a 3 year contract for over $100M. More likely is a 2021 option clause or a void clause, with no opportuniy for tags.

     
  16. supafly

    supafly Suddenly sad and Brady-less PatsFans.com Supporter Weekly Picks Winner

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    If the Pats didn’t feel comfortable giving him a multi-year deal last season, what makes you think they’d suddenly be good with a 3 year deal a full calendar later? Unless I’m reading this incorrectly, I don’t think that’s a very reasonable scenario.
     
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  17. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    As far as Keenun, he might be able to be signed for a 2020 cap of less that $6.75M. After all, we would no longer have the $6.75M Brady dead money in 2021. Perhaps, 3/$30M would reasonable for a lower level bridge.

    BRIDGE QB (perhaps a bit more or less)
    Bonus $12M
    2020 salary $2.75M
    2021 salary $5.25M
    2022 salary $10M

    This contract is basically 2/$20M, although the patriots could keep the player for a 3rd year at $10M.
    =================
    A HIGHER LEVEL REPLACEMENT
    Say that we are discussing $20M/year. 3/$60M
    Bonus $21M
    2020 salary $2.5M
    2021 salary $16.5M
    2022 salary $20M
    2020 cap $23M

    The 2020 cap could be reduced if some of the 2021 salary is guaranteed, or if there is a 2021 option.
     
  18. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't know how many times these points need to be made, but...

    1. Elite QBs don't normally fall off a cliff.
    2. Brady's already played well beyond what even normal "elite" QBs have done, and at a higher level those those elites have done, so talking about a decline in any real way is silly. We're dealing with the unprecedented here, not the "history..." stuff.
     
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  19. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't know if Mrs. Brady would like it in Tennessee, but the Titans would be a good place for Brady, if they were also bringing back Henry.
     
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  20. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Because they were stupid last year, and might smarten up.
     
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