La Canfora: Brady unlikely to sign extension, will test free agency

[Tottie]

I think vrabel will go after brady. They have the cap space to add pieces on defense as well.

Titans don't have the defense to stop KC like NE does and they just lost their DC. The rest makes good sense though. NE is still the best option LFG!

 

[SVN]

While Titans make the most sense from a pure football perspective.
I can't help but think about the marketing and promoting that Vegas or LA would do for TB12.
My gut tells me the Raiders.

Brady learning the 2 sentence playcall west coast system at this juncture ? I dont know. Plus to play the chiefs twice every yr . Same reason for the chargers. Except LA might be a good launchpad for him for his TB12 sports which i think could be a huge draw for him.

 

[SVN]

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

Brady learning the 2 sentence playcall west coast system at this juncture ? I dont know. Plus to play the chiefs twice every yr . Same reason for the chargers. Except LA might be a good launchpad for him for his TB12 sports which i think could be a huge draw for him.

As would Vegas I think Gruden would change the verbiage for Tom

 

[mgteich]

I think vrabel will go after brady. They have the cap space to add pieces on defense as well.

So, Vrabel will trade Watson so that he can have Brady for a year or two? I guess that this scenario is possible. More likely is an extension of Watson.

 

[BelichickFan]

So, Vrabel will trade Watson so that he can have Brady for a year or two? I guess that this scenario is possible. More likely is an extension of Watson.

Watson is a Texan.
Vrabel is a Titan.

 

[Vindicate]

I really don't see how we sign Brady and give him the weapons he wants. Is it possible at all? Anyone have any scenarios that give him a decent cast while paying him a respectable amount?

 

[mgteich]

Watson is a Texan.
Vrabel is a Titan.

my bad

I expect Brady and his agent to actually use the 3 days before the season ends to see what's pout there. I see exactly ZERO reason for Brady to sign before he sees the alternatives.

 

[mgteich]

the cap hit if he doesnt sign before free agency is big. I doubt pats sign him after considering the 13M + the additional cap hit. If brady does want to test free agency then it means he doesnt want to be here. I doubt it though that brady and his agent wont talk to the pats first.

Brady can test free agency for the 3 days BEFORE free agency officially begins, and the extra $6.75M of cap money kicks in. $6.75M is part of the 2020 cap in any case.

 

[mgteich]

I really don't see how we sign Brady and give him the weapons he wants. Is it possible at all? Anyone have any scenarios that give him a decent cast while paying him a respectable amount?

No, if you restrict Brady to a one year contract.

 

[Tunescribe]

No, if you restrict Brady to a one year contract.

Assuming Brady will go for a one-year deal (which is questionable), what amount would be acceptable to both sides while also maximizing what is sorely needed for free agents?

 

[mgteich]

Assuming Brady will go for a one-year deal (which is questionable), what amount would be acceptable to both sides while also maximizing what is sorely needed for free agents?

For starters, a one deal would have to be similar to last year's one year deal.

I would think that $30M of new money would be a minimum. If you are worried about the 2020 cap, consider that following:

WITHOUT BRADY
$13.5M Brady dead money
plus the cap for a bridge quarterback (or backup veteran) say $6.5M
for a total of 2020 cap hit of $20M

WITH BRADY
$6.75M
plus the 2020 cap on a new Brady contract.

To match the 2020 cap hit without Brady, the new cap hit is restricted to $13.25M

$4.25M salary
$27M bonus over 3 years (pushing forward $18M)
for a total of $20M = ($6.75 + $4.25M + $9M)

 

[fnordcircle]

I can't see Brady going to Oakland...but it's looking likely Tom isn't coming back here.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Tom Brady will never play a game in Oakland.

 

[primetime]

For starters, a one deal would have to be similar to last year's one year deal.

I would think that $30M of new money would be a minimum. If you are worried about the 2020 cap, consider that following:

WITHOUT BRADY
$13.5M Brady dead money
plus the cap for a bridge quarterback (or backup veteran) say $6.5M
for a total of 2020 cap hit of $20M

WITH BRADY
$6.75M
plus the 2020 cap on a new Brady contract.

To match the 2020 cap hit without Brady, the new cap hit is restricted to $13.25M

$4.25M salary
$27M bonus over 3 years (pushing forward $18M)
for a total of $20M = ($6.75 + $4.25M + $9M)

$20m this year, $13.25m the next. Unless Brady truly doesn't care about money in any way, it's hard to fathom him signing that deal. (Personally, I think Brady cares about money less than some have reported, but I also think money provides him a convenient excuse to leave for other reasons which I'm increasingly becoming convinced outweigh his interest in staying.)

A "bridge QB" probably depends though. Assume Stidham is the starter and maybe Keenum will come for that much (though really he got paid $7.5m last year so unlikely). If Newton gets cut or traded, he might be $20-22m as a starter type (consider that at $16m, Andy Dalton was the cheapest incumbent veteran starter type in football last season). Same for all the other guys like Tannehill or Bridgewater, low $20s is your starting point. It all depends on how sturdy you want that bridge to be.

Unless the Patriots decide to just roll the dice with Stidham and a middling veteran backup a la Keenum in which case the cost is around $20m, it's hard to envision the Patriots paying the QB position less than $30m next year between a veteran starter (thinking Tannehill, Bridgewater, Newton, Rivers level) and Brady's dead money or otherwise if the money goes to Brady himself.

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps I wasn't clear abut the Brady contract. He would get $30M for his 2020 services. I don't think that is crazy low.

Year two would never happen; I didn't even bother to put such salaries in my post. Put in $30M (2021 and $40M (2022) and we have a 3 year contract for over $100M. More likely is a 2021 option clause or a void clause, with no opportuniy for tags.

$20m this year, $13.25m the next. Unless Brady truly doesn't care about money in any way, it's hard to fathom him signing that deal. (Personally, I think Brady cares about money less than some have reported, but I also think money provides him a convenient excuse to leave for other reasons which I'm increasingly becoming convinced outweigh his interest in staying.)
.

 

[supafly]

For starters, a one deal would have to be similar to last year's one year deal.

I would think that $30M of new money would be a minimum. If you are worried about the 2020 cap, consider that following:

WITHOUT BRADY
$13.5M Brady dead money
plus the cap for a bridge quarterback (or backup veteran) say $6.5M
for a total of 2020 cap hit of $20M

WITH BRADY
$6.75M
plus the 2020 cap on a new Brady contract.

To match the 2020 cap hit without Brady, the new cap hit is restricted to $13.25M

$4.25M salary
$27M bonus over 3 years (pushing forward $18M)
for a total of $20M = ($6.75 + $4.25M + $9M)

If the Pats didn’t feel comfortable giving him a multi-year deal last season, what makes you think they’d suddenly be good with a 3 year deal a full calendar later? Unless I’m reading this incorrectly, I don’t think that’s a very reasonable scenario.

 

[mgteich]

$20m this year, $13.25m the next. Unless Brady truly doesn't care about money in any way, it's hard to fathom him signing that deal. (Personally, I think Brady cares about money less than some have reported, but I also think money provides him a convenient excuse to leave for other reasons which I'm increasingly becoming convinced outweigh his interest in staying.)

A "bridge QB" probably depends though. Assume Stidham is the starter and maybe Keenum will come for that much (though really he got paid $7.5m last year so unlikely). If Newton gets cut or traded, he might be $20-22m as a starter type (consider that at $16m, Andy Dalton was the cheapest incumbent veteran starter type in football last season). Same for all the other guys like Tannehill or Bridgewater, low $20s is your starting point. It all depends on how sturdy you want that bridge to be.

Unless the Patriots decide to just roll the dice with Stidham and a middling veteran backup a la Keenum in which case the cost is around $20m, it's hard to envision the Patriots paying the QB position less than $30m next year between a veteran starter (thinking Tannehill, Bridgewater, Newton, Rivers level) and Brady's dead money or otherwise if the money goes to Brady himself.

As far as Keenun, he might be able to be signed for a 2020 cap of less that $6.75M. After all, we would no longer have the $6.75M Brady dead money in 2021. Perhaps, 3/$30M would reasonable for a lower level bridge.

BRIDGE QB (perhaps a bit more or less)
Bonus $12M
2020 salary $2.75M
2021 salary $5.25M
2022 salary $10M

This contract is basically 2/$20M, although the patriots could keep the player for a 3rd year at $10M.
=================
A HIGHER LEVEL REPLACEMENT
Say that we are discussing $20M/year. 3/$60M
Bonus $21M
2020 salary $2.5M
2021 salary $16.5M
2022 salary $20M
2020 cap $23M

The 2020 cap could be reduced if some of the 2021 salary is guaranteed, or if there is a 2021 option.

 

[Deus Irae]

But will he be average in a year? No one knows, but history is not comforting on old, declining QBs.

I don't know how many times these points need to be made, but...

1. Elite QBs don't normally fall off a cliff.
   
2. Brady's already played well beyond what even normal "elite" QBs have done, and at a higher level those those elites have done, so talking about a decline in any real way is silly. We're dealing with the unprecedented here, not the "history..." stuff.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think vrabel will go after brady. They have the cap space to add pieces on defense as well.

I don't know if Mrs. Brady would like it in Tennessee, but the Titans would be a good place for Brady, if they were also bringing back Henry.

 

[Deus Irae]

If the Pats didn’t feel comfortable giving him a multi-year deal last season, what makes you think they’d suddenly be good with a 3 year deal a full calendar later? Unless I’m reading this incorrectly, I don’t think that’s a very reasonable scenario.

Because they were stupid last year, and might smarten up.