On Team Building, Free Agency, and the Draft

[mayoclinic]

6 days ago NFL.com had this list of FAs most likely to get overpaid:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000475973/article/which-free-agents-will-be-paid-too-much

So far, from this list:

- Ndamukong Suh: 6 years / $117M with $60M guaranteed from Miami. Overpaid.
- Byron Maxwell: 5 years / $53M with $25M guaranteed from Philadelphia. Overpaid.
- Jeremy Maclin: reportely $11M/year from Kansas City. Overpaid.
- Pernell McPhee: 5 years / nearly $40M with $16M guaranteed from Chicago. Overpaid.
- Orlando Franklin: 4 years / $36M from San Diego. Overpaid.

Torrey Smith, Michael Crabtree, Terrance Knighton, Nick Fairley and Buster Skrine are still unsigned from this list.

Also:

- Rodney Hudson: 5 years / $44M from Oakland. Overpaid.
- Jerry Hughes: 5 years / $44M from Buffalo. Overpaid.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Draft to add long-term talent, not to plug holes for 2015

There are two distinct ways they can do this:
1) Go after players coming off an injury (like Easley last year, Gurley this year). They (unlike most teams) can afford to wait a year before getting a solid contribution.

2) Go after players with a high variance. No big deal if they are a bust, big win if they pan out.

The other possibility here is they reverse field and trade up. Arguably they have more draft picks than holes in the roster, and so that suggests packaging some picks to move up someplace. But I could also see them moving out of the first round and ending up with a whole slew of second and third round picks.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Fortunately, we don't have any big holes to fill. We need a LG, 3rd down back and DT. We're replacing the 2014 version of VW. Not the 04 thru 12 versions when he was a beast.

 

[mayoclinic]

Fortunately, we don't have any big holes to fill. We need a LG, 3rd down back and DT. We're replacing the 2014 version of VW. Not the 04 thru 12 versions when he was a beast.

I'd say we need:

1. A big DT replacement for Wilfork. Ideally 2 big DTs. Branch could be one. Dan Williams, Ahtyba Rubin and Kenrick Ellis are all options.

2. A rotational EDGE player. Ayers could be re-signed, or someone like Sheard or Brooks Reed. This could also be addressed in the draft.

3. A LG. Dan Connolly on a Wendell-like deal is the default. This could also be upgraded to someone like Clint Boling.

4. A 3rd-down back. This could be Vereen if the market is soft, or someone like Pierre Thomas.

5. A #3 WR. This could be Danny Amendola on a restructure, or someone like Brian Hartline, Eddie Royal, or even Percy Harvin.

Fill these holes and we go into the draft with almost no acute needs.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is a very strong FA EDGE rusher group. So far, the following players have been taken:

- Jason Pierre-Paul (NY Giants). Franchise tagged.
- Jerry Hughes (Buffalo). Re-signed with a 5 year/$45M deal with $20M guaranteed.
- Brandon Graham (Philadelphia). Re-signed with a 4 year /$26M deal with $14M guaranteed.
- Pernell McPhee (Baltimore -> Chicago). Will reportedly sign a 5 year / $40M deal with $16M guaranteed.

Remaining EDGE rushers include:

- Akeem Ayers (Patriots).
- Jabaal Sheard (Cleveland).
- Derrick Morgan (Tennessee).
- Brooks Reed (Houston).
- Brian Orakpo (Washington).
- Jason Woriilds (Pittsburgh).
- Trent Cole (Philadelphia).
- LaMarr Woodley (Oakland -> reportedly signing with Arizona).

That's a lot of EDGE players. And that doesn't even include Greg Hardy, who is a wild card right now because of his exempt status and off-field issues.

In addition, there is a chance that Tampa Bay could cut Michael Johnson, who signed a big deal just a year ago. He is due an additional $7M guaranteed if he is on their roster as of Thursday (the 3rd day of the new league year).

I expect someone will fall through the cracks, especially with a very strong draft class for EDGE players.

 

[luuked]

A #3 WR. This could be Danny Amendola on a restructure, or someone like Brian Hartline, Eddie Royal, or even Percy Harvin.

Honest question because I have no idea.. how well can Harvin block ?

Given all the stories around him he comes off like a diva to me. Amendola's contributions on many snaps in the blocking game are so incredibly underrated here. I have serious doubts that Harvin can/is willing to replace that aspect. If he can't do that, then there also goes a lot of versatility (e.g. use him from backfield to dictate mismatches).

 

[mayoclinic]

The Giants overpaying for Pats' replaceable FAs:

- 3 years/ $12.35M for Shane Vereen ($4.75 guaranteed)
- 3 years / $10.5M for Jonathan Casillas - unbelievable

They'll factor into the comp pick calculation for 2016,

The price of winning a SB.

 

[Gabriel_p94]

What do you guys think of us losing browner and now possibly revis? Idk where were goin to find CB help. I think the pats are goin to have to address it in the draft, to replace the two.

 

[mayoclinic]

What do you guys think of us losing browner and now possibly revis? Idk where were goin to find CB help. I think the pats are goin to have to address it in the draft, to replace the two.

If it happens, I hate it. But I'll wait until both guys are signed, by the Pats or someone else.

 

[manxman2601]

The Giants overpaying for Pats' replaceable FAs:

- 3 years/ $12.35M for Shane Vereen ($4.75 guaranteed)
- 3 years / $10.5M for Jonathan Casillas - unbelievable

They'll factor into the comp pick calculation for 2016,

The price of winning a SB.

Potential 5th and 6th round compensatory picks.

 

[luuked]

If it happens, I hate it. But I'll wait until both guys are signed, by the Pats or someone else.

Yep. I totally agree, lets wait until the situation resolves itself.. one way or the other. We are looking at a barely finished meal being created by a master cook right now. It doesn't matter how ugly it looks or smells until it is actually finished.

 

[manxman2601]

Yep. I totally agree, lets wait until the situation resolves itself.. one way or the other. We are looking at a barely finished meal being created by a master cook right now. It doesn't matter how ugly it looks or smells until it is actually finished.

We won before Revis and we'll win after. I'd still be comfortable betting that we'll go 12-4 next year and that the Jets will be lucky to get six wins. And we won't need to spend 16m to do it.

 

[luuked]

We won before Revis and we'll win after. I'd still be comfortable betting that we'll go 12-4 next year and that the Jets will be lucky to get six wins. And we won't need to spend 16m to do it.

Honestly, I am not so confident about the Jets staying put at six wins. Bowles got a very nice secondary, good DL, good offensive weapons and - for now - the 6th overall pick. I know that they lack a lot of other important ingredients for now (e.g. servicable QB + safety) but if there is no tampering punishment and their draft class works out I would not be shocked to see them in the playoffs.

Similarly, the Bills and Dolphins also look to have solidified some of their holes. This could be a year where the AFC East is closer together.

But then again who cares which team wins the FA.. the bottomline is still on the field..

 

[manxman2601]

Honestly, I am not so confident about the Jets staying put at six wins. Bowles got a very nice secondary, good DL, good offensive weapons and - for now - the 6th overall pick. I know that they lack a lot of other important ingredients for now (e.g. servicable QB + safety) but if there is no tampering punishment and their draft class works out I would not be shocked to see them in the playoffs.

Similarly, the Bills and Dolphins also look to have solidified some of their holes. This could be a year where the AFC East is closer together.

But then again who cares which team wins the FA.. the bottomline is still on the field..

Exactly. And we're only one day in to FA. What happens if we sign Henry Melton*, Jabaal Sheard, Percy Harvin/Spiller/Bush, trade for Jason McCourty and grab a Todd Gurley at 32? There's the money to do something like this now, albeit with another cut or two. The offense will score more points and an improved pass rush lessens the downgrading in the secondary.

* First interior pass rushing FA that came to mind.

 

[luuked]

Exactly. And we're only one day in to FA. What happens if we sign Henry Melton*, Jabaal Sheard, Percy Harvin/Spiller/Bush, trade for Jason McCourty and grab a Todd Gurley at 32? There's the money to do something like this now, albeit with another cut or two. The offense will score more points and an improved pass rush lessens the downgrading in the secondary.

I'd be ok with Melton, Sheard, Harvin + McCourty/Verner. If Easley can play to his potential we will suddenly stress our opponents in a completely different way. Bowe is also a strong rumor.

There is a silver lining in being a chameleon from year to year... every opponent has to throw out the tape from previous years because many aspects of it are worthless.

Ultimately - as I said before - the biggest hurdle to it all is finding a team that is willing to trade one of their CBs without trying to fleece us due to leverage.

 

[Marinlik]

I wrote my thoughts about Browner in one of the threads in the cesspool that is the main forum right now. I'll post them here to.


If you have a corner on the other side that you can trust completely, like Sherman or Revis, and a very good FS that cover for Browner deep, then you can kind of hide his weaknesses and get the most out of him. A great #1 cb allows you to cheat the safety over to Browners side and that allows him to play as physical as he does as the safety is there to cover up for him. But without that help he can get exposed much more easily, which lowers his value.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Great post by @mayoclinic . I think this is a very accurate assessment of the Patriots' team building strategy. The only thing I would add is that they typically find value in contrarian thinking as well. When positions or certain scheme-type players tend go out of fad, they are aggressive there. When a defensive scheme or a type of personnel they've previously subscribed to becomes popular, they change course. They find much value in assessing where the crowd is about to stampede and then calmly walk in the other direction without being detected. Hope I'm not being too abstract.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

3. Attempting to fill acute needs through the draft is generally in opposition with building a strong talent base through the draft. It leads to reaching to fill specific positions, and passing up more talented options. The more freedom you have to move around in the draft and to not have to fill specific needs, the more you can focus on building a talent base for the long term. The draft also has a sizable inherent failure rate, so diversification and stockpiling of talent makes sense as a general approach. Some successful teams explicitly attempt to factor this uncertainty in their draft approach: BB by trading down, the Ravens by accumulating extra comp picks.

And another glaring example of why you don't draft for need, brought to you by the bumbling New York Jets. They drafted Dee Milliner in 2013 with the ninth overall pick in the draft. Why? As a "Revis replacement". They succumbed to the pressure of the fans and media and tried to save face; in doing so they reached tremendously, as many pundits felt Milliner was nowhere near a top talent although had some similar attributes to Revis. They did grab Sheldon Richardson, a great pickup, but these misses add up over time.

Overall outcome: Jets get Revis and Cromartie back two years later, so the Milliner pick turned out to be not only a bust but a tremendous waste. You shouldn't whiff on any picks in the top-10. Had they not pledged to find Revis's replacement immediately and through the draft, aka trying to fit a round peg into a square hole, they would likely have one more great player on their roster right now.

This is why you take the best player available and shouldn't focus on filling short-term needs via the draft.

 

[luuked]

You shouldn't whiff on any picks in the top-10.

In some cases it happens but in our day and age where every little fart of the top college prospects is analyzed and investigated it is almost impossible to screw up a top 10 selection.

It will not happen but just imagine how BB could fill up a plethora of holes and load our team with talent if we'd swap picks with the Jets due to tampering. Again, I don't think it is realistic at all, I am just saying that give BB a top 10 pick then lean back and enjoy..

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

In some cases it happens but in our day and age where every little fart of the top college prospects is analyzed and investigated it is almost impossible to screw up a top 10 selection.

It will not happen but just imagine how BB could fill up a plethora of holes and load our team with talent if we'd swap picks with the Jets due to tampering. Again, I don't think it is realistic at all, I am just saying that give BB a top 10 pick then lean back and enjoy..

BB's top-10 picks have been Seymour and Mayo. Two franchise players.