Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

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Ice_Ice_Brady

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I think it's very, very unlikely that Darrrelle Revis agrees to an extension with the Patriots before free agency. It makes no sense. He could just as easily test the market, likely get a ridiculous deal, and then decide whether to take the money or the (slightly less) money and compete for championships. Revis is a smart guy and understands this is his last mega pay day; who wouldn't at least want to hear the offers from 31 other teams? He knows the Patriots may say "this offer is only good for now", but he also knows they wouldn't mean it.

Keeping Revis at $20M in year two is risky. The Patriots are on the hook for $5M regardless, so while the cap hit is $25M, the cap savings is $20M if Revis is cut. Of course, the Patriots would not be looking at it as "we are planning to pay Revis $20M this season." Rather, they would be keeping him in the organization for longer, looking to work out the extension while being Revis's only option. With other free agents not willing to wait for the Patriots to get their collective you-know-what together, the Patriots would need to hammer out an extension quickly, allowing them to soften the $25M cap hit for 2015 and have room to re-sign players like McCourty.

The idea may seem crazy, but has anyone ever asked themselves why year 2 is worth $20M and not, say, $50M? Hey, if we are talking about a "fake" contract year put in simply to prevent the franchise tag, why not make it a 2-year, $312M contract? The answer is that, though the $20M salary is absurdly big for a cornerback, the Patriots, and Revis, had their reasons for it. I do wonder if Belichick considered this exact scenario, where he may need to keep Revis on the roster, and considered that he could still maneuver (at least, re-sign the core players) in 2015 free agency before figuring out the long-term deal with Revis.

So, if the Patriots were to keep Revis at $20M, how do hey avoid the Doomsday scenario, where Revis happily plays out the deal, accounting for an absurd portion of the cap, and perhaps more damaging, sets a precedent in New England that the players have the leverage? This is the risk, and this must be weighed against the risk of losing Revis to free agency.

If the Patriots keep Revis, they will hope that the internal team pressure forces his hand to extend his contract and free up money. While Revis is known as a mercenary, he also has a lot of reasons to sign a long-term deal with the Patriots. If were to stay on board, he would get his one-year jackpot, but he would also be 30 years-old a year from now (and 31 going into the 2016 season.) As good as he is, teams may be quite hesitant to give mega money to a 31 year-old cornerback with a repaired ACL. Additionally, there is the risk that his play either regresses or he suffers another injury. Players like Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman aren't just very good; they are also very young, and they also have no notable injuries. If Revis can get something in the ballpark of their salaries, he would be smart to take it. Of course, that line of reasoning only makes sense if the Patriots keep him locked into his contract; if he hits the open market now, at the peak of his powers, don't expect any type of rational analysis to apply to the winning bid.

Which brings us to the other Doomsday scenario, which is Revis hitting the open market. Back in 2008, the Patriots let Randy Moss explore the FA market; it was surprising that he didn't get a mega deal, though around $9M a year wasn't exactly peanuts either. I don't expect the same to happen with Revis, a player who has no personality baggage and is a model citizen; Revis has received exemplary marks in three different organizations and has played through losing seasons with the same warrior mentality. Already, we've heard clear rumblings (a cleaner word for tampering) from the Bills and Jets, who both have strong ties with Revis and strong reasons to bring him back at almost any cost, with the downside of their pursuit that they'll drive up the cost for the Patriots. There are also another 29 teams out there, many who think they are only one piece away from their next level of success. The Patriots don't have the same cap room as lot of teams, though they could afford to pay him big money. The irony is that they may end up in an overall worse situation (and I think that is likely) of paying a king's ransom for Revis not just for one year but for four years, and the $20M one-year hit may seem like a bargain compared to the guaranteed cash and player-friendly conditions it will cost to keep Revis in a Patriots uniform.

Let's be honest here: no one can dare criticize the disciplined cap approach that the Patriots take with all of their players; it has brought us arguably the most sustained success of any sports team in the modern era. We fans love to reason that it's always worth an extra $1M or so, because we need to bring in talented, irreplaceable players, and Belichick frequently shows us that, like a great poker player, his disciplined, statistical-approach wins in the long run. We can't really deny his brilliance and ability to walk away from so many deals, many of which proved to be the right thing. However, we also can't deny that Revis is likely the difference between winning another Super Bowl and not winning another Super Bowl. The idea of him walking away only to see the Patriots suffer the same playoff passing game nightmare is only too real. Even taking the risk of overpaying Revis by $4-5M for one year, even if we aren't able to extend him, when you consider the cap is over $140M, seems quite appealing to many of us. How many $4-5M transactions are literally the likely difference between winning a SB and failing to win a SB?

I am curious to see how the Patriots front office approaches this. I personally hope they take the risk and do what they need to do to clear cap room and keep Revis for year 2, regardless of the cost. The risk of letting him go to auction is greater, in my opinion.
 
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billdog3484

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regarding the first two sentences, essentially stating it makes no sense for Revis to accept deal prior to free agency.

you're basically assuming he wont know his market prior to free agency. im pretty confident in saying that he will have a pretty good idea what offers will be out there prior to this. all these teams and agents talk (tamper) prior to the allowable period. also, the patriots will have a pretty good read on whats going on.

i think he comes back, and i think they strike a very nice deal for both sides, maybe 3yrs 43M, 28M guaranteed, with a $9M signing bonus. i think this type of deal would make him highest paid. that'd make cap numbers somethink like 12, 14, 17M. I think thats what will happen. (these numbers are approximates)

i cant read the rest of what you wrote, way too long
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

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regarding the first two sentences, essentially stating it makes no sense for REvis to accept deal prior to free agency.

you're basically assuming he wont know his market prior to free agency. im pretty confident in saying that he will have a pretty good idea what offers will be out there prior to this. all these teams and agents talk (tamper) prior to the allowable period. also, the patriots will have a pretty good read on whats going on.

i think he comes back, and i think they strike a very nice deal for both sides, maybe 3yrs 43M, 28M guaranteed, with a $9M signing bonus. i think this type of deal would make him highest paid. that'd make cap numbers somethink like 12, 14, 17M. I think thats what will happen. (these numbers are approximates)

i cant read the rest of what you wrote, way too long

I hope you are right, and I am wrong. I've been wrong many times before.
 

Oswlek

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Other than Revis steadfastly refusing to sign with NE, there really is no reason to pick up the second year of the deal. If you are willing to allocate $20mm of cash and $25mm of cap space, just give the guy $50mm ($40mm guaranteed) for the next three years and get him for longer with better cap distribution.
 

Ice_Ice_Brady

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Other than Revis steadfastly refusing to sign with NE, there really is no reason to pick up the second year of the deal. If you are willing to allocate $20mm of cash and $25mm of cap space, just give the guy $50mm ($40mm guaranteed) for the next three years and get him for longer with better cap distribution.

This assumes the deal you outlined will the most attractive deal for Revis. A team may offer him 4-5 years with over $50M guaranteed. Not saying he will get that deal, just that we are then dealing with the unknown. Teams do crazy things in free agency, especially those looking to build credibility for their franchise, a problem the Patriots don't have.

Rex Ryan may very well be thinking he will pay Revis 10% more than the Patriots, whatever that amount is. And he may mean it.
 

Gronkandez

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
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Oswlek

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
This assumes the deal you outlined will the most attractive deal for Revis. A team may offer him 4-5 years with over $50M guaranteed. Not saying he will get that deal, just that we are then dealing with the unknown. Teams do crazy things in free agency, especially those looking to build credibility for their franchise, a problem the Patriots don't have.

Rex Ryan may very well be thinking he will pay Revis 10% more than the Patriots, whatever that amount is. And he may mean it.

Great! Discrepancy regarding the numbers doesn't in any way change my point. Unless Revis is asking for some ridiculous amount, like 4yrs, $20mm a year, all guaranteed, NE is still better off extending him. And if he has a standing offer from Rex for 10% more than whatever NE will pay, that fits the "steadfastly refusing to sign" disclaimer I offered at the beginning.
 

hwc

In the Starting Line-Up
Revis is a smart guy and understands this is his last mega pay day; who wouldn't at least want to hear the offers from 31 other teams? He knows the Patriots may say "this offer is only good for now", but he also knows they wouldn't mean it.

He should check with Wes Welker on that. If the Pats don't pick up Revis' option, they will have already redeployed the cap money, probably on a free agent corner. They aren't going to be left holding the bag...
 

kennyb

In the Starting Line-Up
Revis for 25M or 5M and money for everyone else. i think I'd take the latter.

They could restructure others to get some money, then cut Revis after the FA period is over and no one has any money for him. Then there'd be no where to sign but here.
 

I.M. Fletcher

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
While they could sit on the bonus until April, with the amount of other big dollar players they need to decide on, I would be surprised if they use all of that time. The longer they let this play out, the tougher financial decisions they will have to make elsewhere.
 

Oswlek

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
I think it's very, very unlikely that Darrrelle Revis agrees to an extension with the Patriots before free agency. It makes no sense. He could just as easily test the market

I forgot to highlight this. If Revis doesn't already have a good idea of what teams would be willing to pony up for him, he needs to get a new agent. Sure, those numbers could inflate once teams are publicly battling for his services, but the baseline is already there. If Revis wants to stay and NE makes a competitive offer, I see no reason why he wouldn't sign.
 

patsfanincleveland

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
This assumes the deal you outlined will the most attractive deal for Revis. A team may offer him 4-5 years with over $50M guaranteed. Not saying he will get that deal, just that we are then dealing with the unknown. Teams do crazy things in free agency, especially those looking to build credibility for their franchise, a problem the Patriots don't have.

Rex Ryan may very well be thinking he will pay Revis 10% more than the Patriots, whatever that amount is. And he may mean it.

It's all on Revis. He has to decide if the chance comes.....is $3-5 million more worth going to someone like the Raiders. Do you want your mentor Ty Law pointing out he has three rings......you got one.?

People tend to forget that we are a healthy Gronk from probably fourpeating. Jets and Bucs well not so much.
 

Poker

On the Game Day Roster
Ice Ice, I appreciate your original and contrarian thinking. Just about everyone who's written about this has just assumed it's a placeholder which the Pats would never pick up. But you're thinking outside the box, just like Belichick is know to.

Another mental model of this is like a version of a really expensive 1 year franchise tag for Revis, a $20M+ price for an elite corner for a year.
 

Deus Irae

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patfanken

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Ice, I think you are way over thinking it here. All Revis is looking for is something that puts him AMONG the top paid CB's in the league (Peterson, Sherman, etc). That puts him in the range of 13-14/yr MAXIMUM, because based on what I've read, that is what Peterson and Sherman have gotten.

I seriously question another team coming in and offering him $16+MM and more than 3 real years (anyone can offer a couple of fake years at the end of 3 year contract including us) In the end, he still is going to be 32 when the 3 years are up. He still is going to be an averaged sized guy who doesn't have exceptional physical skills other than his extraordinary ability to anticipate.

In the end, if you offer him a deal that puts him on a par with Peterson and Sherman, and he still doesn't take it, then F'em. Every negative thing anyone has said about him was true. Remember the Pats have NEVER failed to pay a guy who was in the top 3 of his position in his prime.....ever. I don't see why that wouldn't be the case with Revis. But if Revis wants that much more, like $16MM/yr, I can see them letting him go.

Besides , if you were Revis, do you think a "mere" $2MM/yr would pull out of a good situation with the Pats, to go to the Jets? None of the better teams in the league are going to commit that kind of money to $16MM/yr long term to one player (non-QB) It's too big of a single cap hit. Listen its a big risk for the Pats at $14/yr, but one worth taking given our unique situation. I think everyone would recognize that this is a special situaaton
 
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BobDigital

Pro Bowl Player
This can be summed up in 2 questions.

1) is Revis worth 20M a year? No.
2) Are there other options out there in FA if this can't get done for a fair deal? Yes.

There is no Revis but you can get other very good players with that free'd up money.
 

RI Patriots fan

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
I like what the other guy said, this post it too long.

BTW, the Pats have until April 1st to pick up his option. That means Revis can't go anywhere when FA starts. That is an advantage for the Pats because other teams may move on to Plan B.



http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000463717/article/will-patriots-pay-darrelle-revis-20m-option


I hope you're right about 4/1, but every other source I've looked at says the option date is 3/9.


"Revis is under contract for 2015, but it's really just a fake year because of a prohibitive $25 million cap charge. If the two sides don't renegotiate a new deal by March 9, the final day of the 2014 league year, the Patriots will have to release him because a $12 million bonus is triggered."


http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/p...eds-patriots-intent-on-signing-darrelle-revis



"
The two sides will need to work out a long-term deal before March 9, when Revis' $12M roster bonus is due."


http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/nfl/ne/new-england-patriots
 
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