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I think it's very, very unlikely that Darrrelle Revis agrees to an extension with the Patriots before free agency. It makes no sense. He could just as easily test the market, likely get a ridiculous deal, and then decide whether to take the money or the (slightly less) money and compete for championships. Revis is a smart guy and understands this is his last mega pay day; who wouldn't at least want to hear the offers from 31 other teams? He knows the Patriots may say "this offer is only good for now", but he also knows they wouldn't mean it.
Keeping Revis at $20M in year two is risky. The Patriots are on the hook for $5M regardless, so while the cap hit is $25M, the cap savings is $20M if Revis is cut. Of course, the Patriots would not be looking at it as "we are planning to pay Revis $20M this season." Rather, they would be keeping him in the organization for longer, looking to work out the extension while being Revis's only option. With other free agents not willing to wait for the Patriots to get their collective you-know-what together, the Patriots would need to hammer out an extension quickly, allowing them to soften the $25M cap hit for 2015 and have room to re-sign players like McCourty.
The idea may seem crazy, but has anyone ever asked themselves why year 2 is worth $20M and not, say, $50M? Hey, if we are talking about a "fake" contract year put in simply to prevent the franchise tag, why not make it a 2-year, $312M contract? The answer is that, though the $20M salary is absurdly big for a cornerback, the Patriots, and Revis, had their reasons for it. I do wonder if Belichick considered this exact scenario, where he may need to keep Revis on the roster, and considered that he could still maneuver (at least, re-sign the core players) in 2015 free agency before figuring out the long-term deal with Revis.
So, if the Patriots were to keep Revis at $20M, how do hey avoid the Doomsday scenario, where Revis happily plays out the deal, accounting for an absurd portion of the cap, and perhaps more damaging, sets a precedent in New England that the players have the leverage? This is the risk, and this must be weighed against the risk of losing Revis to free agency.
If the Patriots keep Revis, they will hope that the internal team pressure forces his hand to extend his contract and free up money. While Revis is known as a mercenary, he also has a lot of reasons to sign a long-term deal with the Patriots. If were to stay on board, he would get his one-year jackpot, but he would also be 30 years-old a year from now (and 31 going into the 2016 season.) As good as he is, teams may be quite hesitant to give mega money to a 31 year-old cornerback with a repaired ACL. Additionally, there is the risk that his play either regresses or he suffers another injury. Players like Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman aren't just very good; they are also very young, and they also have no notable injuries. If Revis can get something in the ballpark of their salaries, he would be smart to take it. Of course, that line of reasoning only makes sense if the Patriots keep him locked into his contract; if he hits the open market now, at the peak of his powers, don't expect any type of rational analysis to apply to the winning bid.
Which brings us to the other Doomsday scenario, which is Revis hitting the open market. Back in 2008, the Patriots let Randy Moss explore the FA market; it was surprising that he didn't get a mega deal, though around $9M a year wasn't exactly peanuts either. I don't expect the same to happen with Revis, a player who has no personality baggage and is a model citizen; Revis has received exemplary marks in three different organizations and has played through losing seasons with the same warrior mentality. Already, we've heard clear rumblings (a cleaner word for tampering) from the Bills and Jets, who both have strong ties with Revis and strong reasons to bring him back at almost any cost, with the downside of their pursuit that they'll drive up the cost for the Patriots. There are also another 29 teams out there, many who think they are only one piece away from their next level of success. The Patriots don't have the same cap room as lot of teams, though they could afford to pay him big money. The irony is that they may end up in an overall worse situation (and I think that is likely) of paying a king's ransom for Revis not just for one year but for four years, and the $20M one-year hit may seem like a bargain compared to the guaranteed cash and player-friendly conditions it will cost to keep Revis in a Patriots uniform.
Let's be honest here: no one can dare criticize the disciplined cap approach that the Patriots take with all of their players; it has brought us arguably the most sustained success of any sports team in the modern era. We fans love to reason that it's always worth an extra $1M or so, because we need to bring in talented, irreplaceable players, and Belichick frequently shows us that, like a great poker player, his disciplined, statistical-approach wins in the long run. We can't really deny his brilliance and ability to walk away from so many deals, many of which proved to be the right thing. However, we also can't deny that Revis is likely the difference between winning another Super Bowl and not winning another Super Bowl. The idea of him walking away only to see the Patriots suffer the same playoff passing game nightmare is only too real. Even taking the risk of overpaying Revis by $4-5M for one year, even if we aren't able to extend him, when you consider the cap is over $140M, seems quite appealing to many of us. How many $4-5M transactions are literally the likely difference between winning a SB and failing to win a SB?
I am curious to see how the Patriots front office approaches this. I personally hope they take the risk and do what they need to do to clear cap room and keep Revis for year 2, regardless of the cost. The risk of letting him go to auction is greater, in my opinion.
Keeping Revis at $20M in year two is risky. The Patriots are on the hook for $5M regardless, so while the cap hit is $25M, the cap savings is $20M if Revis is cut. Of course, the Patriots would not be looking at it as "we are planning to pay Revis $20M this season." Rather, they would be keeping him in the organization for longer, looking to work out the extension while being Revis's only option. With other free agents not willing to wait for the Patriots to get their collective you-know-what together, the Patriots would need to hammer out an extension quickly, allowing them to soften the $25M cap hit for 2015 and have room to re-sign players like McCourty.
The idea may seem crazy, but has anyone ever asked themselves why year 2 is worth $20M and not, say, $50M? Hey, if we are talking about a "fake" contract year put in simply to prevent the franchise tag, why not make it a 2-year, $312M contract? The answer is that, though the $20M salary is absurdly big for a cornerback, the Patriots, and Revis, had their reasons for it. I do wonder if Belichick considered this exact scenario, where he may need to keep Revis on the roster, and considered that he could still maneuver (at least, re-sign the core players) in 2015 free agency before figuring out the long-term deal with Revis.
So, if the Patriots were to keep Revis at $20M, how do hey avoid the Doomsday scenario, where Revis happily plays out the deal, accounting for an absurd portion of the cap, and perhaps more damaging, sets a precedent in New England that the players have the leverage? This is the risk, and this must be weighed against the risk of losing Revis to free agency.
If the Patriots keep Revis, they will hope that the internal team pressure forces his hand to extend his contract and free up money. While Revis is known as a mercenary, he also has a lot of reasons to sign a long-term deal with the Patriots. If were to stay on board, he would get his one-year jackpot, but he would also be 30 years-old a year from now (and 31 going into the 2016 season.) As good as he is, teams may be quite hesitant to give mega money to a 31 year-old cornerback with a repaired ACL. Additionally, there is the risk that his play either regresses or he suffers another injury. Players like Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman aren't just very good; they are also very young, and they also have no notable injuries. If Revis can get something in the ballpark of their salaries, he would be smart to take it. Of course, that line of reasoning only makes sense if the Patriots keep him locked into his contract; if he hits the open market now, at the peak of his powers, don't expect any type of rational analysis to apply to the winning bid.
Which brings us to the other Doomsday scenario, which is Revis hitting the open market. Back in 2008, the Patriots let Randy Moss explore the FA market; it was surprising that he didn't get a mega deal, though around $9M a year wasn't exactly peanuts either. I don't expect the same to happen with Revis, a player who has no personality baggage and is a model citizen; Revis has received exemplary marks in three different organizations and has played through losing seasons with the same warrior mentality. Already, we've heard clear rumblings (a cleaner word for tampering) from the Bills and Jets, who both have strong ties with Revis and strong reasons to bring him back at almost any cost, with the downside of their pursuit that they'll drive up the cost for the Patriots. There are also another 29 teams out there, many who think they are only one piece away from their next level of success. The Patriots don't have the same cap room as lot of teams, though they could afford to pay him big money. The irony is that they may end up in an overall worse situation (and I think that is likely) of paying a king's ransom for Revis not just for one year but for four years, and the $20M one-year hit may seem like a bargain compared to the guaranteed cash and player-friendly conditions it will cost to keep Revis in a Patriots uniform.
Let's be honest here: no one can dare criticize the disciplined cap approach that the Patriots take with all of their players; it has brought us arguably the most sustained success of any sports team in the modern era. We fans love to reason that it's always worth an extra $1M or so, because we need to bring in talented, irreplaceable players, and Belichick frequently shows us that, like a great poker player, his disciplined, statistical-approach wins in the long run. We can't really deny his brilliance and ability to walk away from so many deals, many of which proved to be the right thing. However, we also can't deny that Revis is likely the difference between winning another Super Bowl and not winning another Super Bowl. The idea of him walking away only to see the Patriots suffer the same playoff passing game nightmare is only too real. Even taking the risk of overpaying Revis by $4-5M for one year, even if we aren't able to extend him, when you consider the cap is over $140M, seems quite appealing to many of us. How many $4-5M transactions are literally the likely difference between winning a SB and failing to win a SB?
I am curious to see how the Patriots front office approaches this. I personally hope they take the risk and do what they need to do to clear cap room and keep Revis for year 2, regardless of the cost. The risk of letting him go to auction is greater, in my opinion.
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