Patriots need to keep Revis, even if it means picking up year 2

[patman52]

This assumes the deal you outlined will the most attractive deal for Revis. A team may offer him 4-5 years with over $50M guaranteed. Not saying he will get that deal, just that we are then dealing with the unknown. Teams do crazy things in free agency, especially those looking to build credibility for their franchise, a problem the Patriots don't have.

Rex Ryan may very well be thinking he will pay Revis 10% more than the Patriots, whatever that amount is. And he may mean it.

If revis wants to play for the bills for only 10% more than Brady and BB, what can you say. There is no way in hell I am willing to pay him 20 mill for next year. for what? a chance that he gets hurt and you lost McMourty, Gostkowski, Ayers, Ridley, Vereen, because you want a top CB. You can get Maxwell and keep all your Free agents all of whom are under 26 and sign a 27 YO Maxwell long term.

 

[PATS16N0]

I was responding to the first sentence of the OP

I think it's very, very unlikely that Darrrelle Revis agrees to an extension with the Patriots before free agency. It makes no sense. He could just as easily test the market, likely get a ridiculous deal, and then decide whether to take the money or the (slightly less) money and compete for championships.

He doesn't have this option because he's still under contract with the Patriots. The only way he's a free agent is if the Patriots cut him. His only real option is to deny any extension and force the Patriots to either pay him 20 M or cut him, neither of which is in his best interests if he wants to maintain good relations with the premier team in the league.

As I've said many times, I believe Revis mercenary reputation is unfair, and we'll find out soon if I'm right.
He was right to hold out against the Jets because he was one of the best players in the league making less money than no-name depth people. He came to New England for less than what he could of gotten. He's now made over 90 million dollars in his career, and winning Superbowls is fun.

My guess is he signs an extension

 

[Jlaff]

I've always thought that from the mind of a player like Revis, he might be inclined to view the $32 million dollar contract as two years at $16 million, but the first year at $12 only being a feeler year, so that if he exceeds $12 million in play, he would be retroactively paid his market price for the previous year with the $20 million.

If in his eyes he was worth $16 million last year, he might not have any problem expecting $20 million this year.

 

[Sciz]

I hope you're right about 4/1, but every other source I've looked at says the option date is 3/9.


"Revis is under contract for 2015, but it's really just a fake year because of a prohibitive $25 million cap charge. If the two sides don't renegotiate a new deal by March 9, the final day of the 2014 league year, the Patriots will have to release him because a $12 million bonus is triggered."


http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/p...eds-patriots-intent-on-signing-darrelle-revis



"The two sides will need to work out a long-term deal before March 9, when Revis' $12M roster bonus is due."


http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/nfl/ne/new-england-patriots

My understanding is that they have to decide by 3/9 whether or not he gets a $12M check on 4/1.

 

[Gronkandez]

As I've said many times, I believe Revis mercenary reputation is unfair, and we'll find out soon if I'm right.
He was right to hold out against the Jets because he was one of the best players in the league making less money than no-name depth people. He came to New England for less than what he could of gotten. He's now made over 90 million dollars in his career, and winning Superbowls is fun.

My guess is he signs an extension

He held out twice with the NYJ, didn't you watch Hard Knocks. Then he pulled his hammy.

 

[50-yard-line]

The idea may seem crazy, but has anyone ever asked themselves why year 2 is worth $20M and not, say, $50M? Hey, if we are talking about a "fake" contract year put in simply to prevent the franchise tag, why not make it a 2-year, $312M contract? The answer is that, though the $20M salary is absurdly big for a cornerback, the Patriots, and Revis, had their reasons for it. I do wonder if Belichick considered this exact scenario, where he may need to keep Revis on the roster, and considered that he could still maneuver (at least, re-sign the core players) in 2015 free agency before figuring out the long-term deal with Revis.

I think you, and a lot of other people, are missing something.

Revis got $12 million this year. He's due $20 next year. How much was he making per year in Tampa? 16.

So if they pay him the $20m, it's like paying him 16 for two years.

 

[Miguel]

I like what the other guy said, this post it too long.

BTW, the Pats have until April 1st to pick up his option. That means Revis can't go anywhere when FA starts. That is an advantage for the Pats because other teams may move on to Plan B.



http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000463717/article/will-patriots-pay-darrelle-revis-20m-option

NFL.Com is wrong about this. Tweeted about this to the writer. He did not respond. But Jeff Howe and Joel Corry who both have access to Revis contract replied to my tweet. Both said that the deadline was March 9th.

 

[scott99]

I think the Pats will get it done. Revis and the Pats are a match made in heaven. He gets to be on a winning team that has a chance EVERY year to win the Super Bowl, and the Pats get someone they can match up against team's best receivers fo a couple seasons while grooming young CBs.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

IMO they will give him a new deal or keep him under year 2...he is that important to this team. But i am 90% sure...as a fan mind you...this deal will get done. His best shot at winning titles is nowhere else but here..and we will pay

 

[mgteich]

I think you, and a lot of other people, are missing something.

Revis got $12 million this year. He's due $20 next year. How much was he making per year in Tampa? 16.

So if they pay him the $20m, it's like paying him 16 for two years.

No, it's not. It is paying him $12M and $20M.

 

[mgteich]

1) If Revis is on the team on March 10th, the teams owe him a bonus of $12M. The bonus is paid on April 1st. His 2015 salary is $7.5M plus a bonus of $500k for being on the team each game.

2) Revis knows his value. As someone said, if he doesn't know his market value, he should fire his agent.

3) IMHO, the patriots will not pay out the bonus committing them to $20M for 2015.

Just BTW, under this scenario the team would be $4M OVER the cap looking of $9M if cap room to franchise McCourty and $3M or so to extend Gostkowski. So, $16M of cap room would need to be cleared by end of business March 10th just to accommodate these three contracts.

4) Both the team and Revis are probably interested in signing a deal, but the leverage is all on the side of Revis. I suppose that the team could pay the bonus and then trade Revis. Under those circumstances the 2015 cap hit would be $17M and we wouldn't have a corner. I don't think that this will happen.

The leverage is even more on the side of Revis after the team agrees to the $12M. Revis would have the $12M in pocket. His salary would be $8M and he would be looking for a long-term deal that would favorable to him. Otherwise, he could just play out his contract and be a free agent next year.

MAKE NO MISTAKE
The patriots could choose to pay Revis $20M for 2015. However, this would be a HUGE cap hit for one player ($25M) and huge compensation for one year ($20M). And yes, it would greatly decrease the likelihood of signing McCourty. And finally, Revis would only be here for one year. If they can't reach a deal, then certainly Revis would test out free agency next year.

FINALLY
The team could cut Revis and then hope to sign him when offers are on the table from everyone, and when the patriots better understand their options at cornerback. The threat that no one will want him but a team like the jets is a hollow threat. Such an analysis will almost certainly not get Revis to sign. What's the risk to Revis? Yes, he might get about the same or a little less than the patriots offered him, or maybe he'll get a lot more.

Revis will sign for the patriots if, and only if, he is willing to take less from the patriots than the maximum he would be likely to get on the open market. And yes, I think that it very possible that a deal will be signed.

 

[Fencer]

Revis would happily play on a 1-year deal for $20 million. I don't think, however, that the Pats would happily pay him that.

This isn't like the Matt Cassell situation, in which there's a huge win-win in giving a QB a long-term deal, and hence it was OK to commit to overpaying him greatly for one season as a waystation toward a long-term deal. If Revis gets a deal to be greatly overpaid for one season, he'll just play it out.

 

[Miguel]

Joel Corry tweeted out that "The installments of Revis' $12M roster bonus if option picked up are $3M on 3/31, $3M on 10/31, $3M on 12/31 & $3M on 3/31/16."

 

[Gronkandez]

NFL.Com is wrong about this. Tweeted about this to the writer. He did not respond. But Jeff Howe and Joel Corry who both have access to Revis contract replied to my tweet. Both said that the deadline was March 9th.

Thanks. I figured you were the one would could clarify this for us.

 

[patsbrasilpatriotas]

This can be summed up in 2 questions.

1) is Revis worth 20M a year? No.
2) Are there other options out there in FA if this can't get done for a fair deal? Yes.

There is no Revis but you can get other very good players with that free'd up money.

To be honest i agree 100% with you. If he wants more than 14 m per year, I'd rather sign with ALL our FA (obviously reducing the numbers of those who have a contract inconsistent with their current level of play - Mayo , Wilfork , Amendola...).

I do not know how much money the Patriots will save if they cut Revis and sign all other FA. But if they sign the best FA CB to a fair price they can go to the draft only seeking for BPA.

 

[mgteich]

Joel Corry tweeted out that "The installments of Revis' $12M roster bonus if option picked up are $3M on 3/31, $3M on 10/31, $3M on 12/31 & $3M on 3/31/16."

If I understand correctly, these are the days that the checks are to be cut. The patriots will owe him the money if he is on the team on March 10th. Do I understand correctly?

 

[JR4]

There is lot to consider. BB knows what he wants to get and the CAP he needs to get it done.
If anyone thinks BB will gut his team to keep one player he thinks is asking too much I believe you
are dreaming. Wasn't there a real good player that BB let go because he was asking a little too much?
Think he went to Broncos. BB sets his price and you either take it or leave it.

Even if Revis CAP hit goes down by 8M, that still leaves a CAP hit of 17M for one player and that's if
Revis new deal results in only a 12M CAP hit this year.
With 8M freed up minus our projected overage is currently about 5M, so you get 3M to work with.
Hey that's the draft with no wiggle room for the season. And no other PATS FA's signed!

So some say restructure this one and that one and cut Vince. What if these players don't want to cut their
pay check so Revis can get 12 to 14 M? If you just cut Vince and no other restructures then you can maybe sign DM but no one else and still have no wiggle room for the season.
All this stress on the Roster for just one player? If Revis is cut PATS get 20M freed up, can sign all their
most important FAs and if they then cut/or restructure Vince they can be big players in the FA market also.

 

[patfanken]

I've stated that I'm confident that this gets done for 3 years in the $14MM/yr range. But I've been wrong before. And if I am, let me remind you that we instantly get $20MM in cap relief, and $20MM can by a lot of good football players. You could possibly get Terrance Knighton AND Byron Maxwell for that kind of money.

In the end, we should all know by now, that football is a game of numbers. It was the first lesson one of my mentors told me right after I got my first HS HCing job. Mediots have never understood that simple fact. They are like moths, drawn to the flame of a big name.

That was the fatal flaw with all those good teams we had in the mid to late 90's. A mediot could look on paper and see a very talented team.....one player deep. Now more than ever the NFL is not built to succeed that way. Last season we lost 4 key players (Mayo, Ridley, Dobson and Easley), and we had probably had the best luck we've had with injuries in a decade. Those good teams in the mid 90's weren't able to survive the injuries.

BB has always attempted to build his teams such that his bottom 25 players on the roster are going to be better than yours. Its part of the reason we've survived those years when we've had crippling injuries and managed to have great years (relative to the rest of the league).

That $20MM could go a long way to strengthening the team in other ways to cover up some of the drop off in CB play that could come with the loss of Revis. Who knows? Like I said I hope he comes back, but I know it will be at a cost. And if he doesn't, I'm not going to jump off the bandwagon, like most of the Mediots will, because his absence will make it possible to get stronger elsewhere.

Here's one for the offensive geeks. Revis goes elsewhere and with that cap room the Pats go out and get Iupati and Fitzgerald. Now I personally wouldn't do that, but it certainly would make a lot of people here happy.

There truly is only one indispensable player on this team in 2015 and that's Tom Brady. Some might think Gronk is too, but we've proven we can get to AFCCG's without Gronk. Christ we've proven we can get to the Superbowl with a historically BAD defense and come within one play of winning it. And that's ALL because of how BB builds his teams. You can't afford to rely on a few big money guys, because they are human.

 

[mgteich]

I've stated that I'm confident that this gets done for 3 years in the $14MM/yr range. But I've been wrong before. And if I am, let me remind you that we instantly get $20MM in cap relief, and $20MM can by a lot of good football players. You could possibly get Terrance Knighton AND Byron Maxwell for that kind of money.

In the end, we should all know by now, that football is a game of numbers. It was the first lesson one of my mentors told me right after I got my first HS HCing job. Mediots have never understood that simple fact. They are like moths, drawn to the flame of a big name.

That was the fatal flaw with all those good teams we had in the mid to late 90's. A mediot could look on paper and see a very talented team.....one player deep. Now more than ever the NFL is not built to succeed that way. Last season we lost 4 key players (Mayo, Ridley, Dobson and Easley), and we had probably had the best luck we've had with injuries in a decade. Those good teams in the mid 90's weren't able to survive the injuries.

BB has always attempted to build his teams such that his bottom 25 players on the roster are going to be better than yours. Its part of the reason we've survived those years when we've had crippling injuries and managed to have great years (relative to the rest of the league).

That $20MM could go a long way to strengthening the team in other ways to cover up some of the drop off in CB play that could come with the loss of Revis. Who knows? Like I said I hope he comes back, but I know it will be at a cost. And if he doesn't, I'm not going to jump off the bandwagon, like most of the Mediots will, because his absence will make it possible to get stronger elsewhere.

Here's one for the offensive geeks. Revis goes elsewhere and with that cap room the Pats go out and get Iupati and Fitzgerald. Now I personally wouldn't do that, but it certainly would make a lot of people here happy.

There truly is only one indispensable player on this team in 2015 and that's Tom Brady. Some might think Gronk is too, but we've proven we can get to AFCCG's without Gronk. Christ we've proven we can get to the Superbowl with a historically BAD defense and come within one play of winning it. And that's ALL because of how BB builds his teams. You can't afford to rely on a few big money guys, because they are human.

I agree with almost that you posted, all but the last sentence. The patriots do indeed rely on a few big money guys, IMHO, more than ever before. Revis, Wilfork, Mayo, Browner, Brady, Gronkowski and Solder get big money. On the other hand, I agree that no ONE player is critical, other than Brady. However, if the goal is Super Bowls, the Gronk is also critical. Most of us think that a healthy Gronkowski might have mean another SB win or two.

But my BOTTOM LINE is the same as yours. If Revis doesn't sign, Belichick will move on. We likely would still be co-favorties to win the AFC (after signing a free agent or two with the Revis money).

 

[Brady6]

I would never keep Revis with a $25M cap hit. He is the best CB in the game no doubt but he is a football player and they're all at risk of injury. That is way too many eggs in one basket.