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La Canfora: Brady unlikely to sign extension, will test free agency

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ross12, Jan 19, 2020.

  1. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thanks.

    So, Miguel starts with Brady gone, includes adjustments, LTBE incentives, and has us at $30M. This is indeed a good place to start as we consider 2020.

     
  2. primetime

    primetime Pro Bowl Player

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    Yeah. If Brady comes back, it's $36.75m less whatever Brady's number is for this year (with an additional $6.75m hit the following season, which is fine because a new CBA is likely to see a big cap bump). Think it's reasonable to expect the Patriots will have about $30m to play with in free agency after cuts and restructures regardless of quarterback situation (and more if you go with Stidham and a cheaper veteran), which is enough to fill some holes reliably - whether returning your own guys or bringing in outside help - and others more shakily. But isn't that the way it always goes?
     
  3. TommyBrady12

    TommyBrady12 Pro Bowl Player

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    I don't know. Why don't you text Gronk? It's up to him on how his body feels.
     
  4. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes.

    We have the "normal" number of key free agents and normal cap money.

    For me, the differences are the huge holes at QB, TE and WR. With no Brady, we need a #1 QB, a #1WR and a #1 TE. That's a lot.

     
  5. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No. Is there a reason why you're continuing with the deliberately silly response posts after we discussed this earlier this offseason? I thought we'd gotten past this.
     
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  6. primetime

    primetime Pro Bowl Player

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    Tight end is tough because there simply aren't that many good ones in the league. Sometimes you get lucky and find a Darren Waller, which is what the Patriots were trying to do with Lacosse. To some degree, WR1 is a similar issue. Who do you consider a WR1 - does it mean getting Beckham? Does 32 year old AJ Green suffice? How about breaking the bank for someone as mercurial as Amari Cooper? Or are you okay with Robby Anderson and Danny Amendola?
     
  7. primetime

    primetime Pro Bowl Player

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    There is this, which would free up a lot of cap space. Brown's grievance seems more likely to be resolved in his favor, while I'm not sure about Hernandez:

     
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  8. Simpelton

    Simpelton In the Starting Line-Up

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    I agree that there's going to be a moment of doubt, but Brady didn't get where he is by being indecisive. He already knows what he has to do, and if I pick someone to NOT hesitate at the last second, it'd probably be TB12

    That said, i expect the Patriots to at least make an offer for him after he tests FA waters. They know what price they want to bring him back for. So there's still a way back even if he declares for FA, which I think he's definitely going to do at this point.

    I for one would love to have him end his career here and transition right into coaching. I think he'd make a brilliant OC. But that's probably a pipe dream.
     
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  9. 50-yard-line

    50-yard-line In the Starting Line-Up

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    Okay, say it. I don't disagree at the distinct possibility that you're correct - I'm just telling you what wouldn't surprise me.

    I don't think Harry will bust, at all. On a different team/QB/system, he'd be one of the guys we'd complain about not drafting.

    I think Meyers will stick around somewhere for a while as a #3/4. He's not a premer receiver, but he's not horrible, either.

    I think Edelman is on borrowed time. He's one of my all-time favorites - I have a grandson named after him. The injuries will continue to pile up (note that in my "gut" post, I said the Chargers should go and overpay for him if it makes Brady happy - I also think that Edelman extends his career if he's not the 15-target in traffic guy every damned week.

    I think Sanu is better than he showed, but in his prime was never better than a #2. I still hope the Pats can somehow get at least a year or two of Manny Sanders, which is very unlikely.

    The Pats need a #1 unless Harry can get there, and he's nowhere near that now. They might want to draft high on WR again this year.

    I was a Dorsett rooter (I like the guy), but he's invisible way too often. I don't see him back.

    And I think a big part of the problems with all of this was Brady's mindset. EP is a well-oiled machine with the right parts - those right parts don't include rookies. Otherwise it's a disaster. This year was a disaster.

    Even if Brady leaves and the upgrades at WR are minimal, I still expect the Pats to compete for a playoff spot next year. Let me put it this way: the OL will be better/as good simiply by having Andrews back, Mason healthy, Cannon healthier, and, hopefully, Cajuste and Froholdt in as depth at least (plus, i expect at least one good addition if they lose Thuney).

    The Defense probably won't have the year they had this year, of course, but they'll still be good (killed me to watch Pennell playing really well in KC's front on Sunday, by the way). And I'm not sure how much the Stidham/WRs next year will be a downgrade from this year's utter disaster. Face it, this year, that offense just sucked.
     
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  10. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I just wanted to follow this up with a point that you, yourself, made in a thread you started:

    So, using your logic, low level players aren't getting big money, since we're talking camp competition and insurance, and Karras isn't going to be seeing any pay increase unless he's the starter. That means that we're talking about minimal cap hits for Ferentz and Robert (and minimal/reasonable numbers for Newhouse and Elueunor), and a possible cap savings with any Karras replacement. And, if they're keeping Folk, he's not getting the kind of money that Gost has been getting.

    So that entire group is relatively small money, according to your logic, which is what I've been saying. And, that leaves us where I've been saying:

    Van Noy - likely the only "big ticket" defensive signing, if he's brought back
    Collins - likely gone, as he's reportedly going to chase the dollars again
    McCourty - likely cheaper, and certainly not significantly more expensive, than he's been in recent years
    Butler (RFA) - number known and determined by tender level, unless a different agreement is worked out.
    Shelton - the potential issue. It's folly to risk giving him big money, given his history (and his play was better but overrated this past year), but we don't know the market right now, and it only takes one idiot to screw things up for everyone
     
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I believe that the OL "addition" will be Karras.

    I certainly hope that Andrews, Cannon and Cajuste are back healthy. I would consider that to be a longshot.

     
  12. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Why do you consider that a long shot? Which player(s) lead(s) you to that position? Andrews is confident that he'll be back, for example.

    Patriots' David Andrews optimistic about playing in 2020

    Cajuste will have had more than a full calendar year to recover from his injury.

    Patriots Not Planning For Rookie Tackle Yodny Cajuste To Play This Season

    Cannon's contract doesn't really make for him being a good cut, cap-wise, until the 2021 season.

    Marcus Cannon Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

    I can see how someone might question each of the players, but I'm curious as to what makes you come up with the "long shot" analysis.
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
  13. robertweathers

    robertweathers PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Can't let Sanu or Harry be the #1 dude
     
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  14. TheRainMaker

    TheRainMaker In the Starting Line-Up

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    If Brady returns, expect the guy who wears #15 to get buried on the depth chart Chad Jackson style circa 2007. Pats would bring in veterans that Brady would turn to first. And Edelman is the only guy he trusts.

    I’ve said it before, but I guarantee you the young WR’s want to see Brady walk.
     
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  15. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Would that be the young WR who struggles to get open and couldn't remember his routes, or the young WR who struggles to get open and struggled catching the 50/50 balls he was supposed to excel at catching?
     
  16. TheRainMaker

    TheRainMaker In the Starting Line-Up

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    Both. It’s a clean slate with a new QB.
     
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  17. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm still trying to wrap my head around the insanity of people who think that's a good idea. Going with lousy receivers and a much lesser QB has somehow gained traction.

    I hope it's not something in the water supply.


    After I figure that out, I'll start working on the people who think they know the mental ponderings of a rookie NFL players they've never met.
     
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  18. primetime

    primetime Pro Bowl Player

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    It's not unreasonable to believe Harry and Meyers will amount to something in the NFL, and perhaps even be good or great players. Both clearly have talent, and there is a certain amount riding on that talent swimming rather than sinking.

    It is, however, unreasonable to believe it is a good idea to build a team around an assumption that they will be good or great players based off the relative nothing they showed last year. At best you can assume that what you saw is what you'll get, and Harry is a Patterson-level gadget guy, a useful player without question but not one who's used on every snap, and that Meyers is a back of the roster type who might be useful in ways that other back of the roster receivers from Dedric Ward to Brian Tyms have been in the past.

    Do you hope for and to some degree count on their improvement? Certainly, that's a roll of the dice you always make. The Patriots did it with Dorsett, for example. But you can't assume they'll be more than that.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 21, 2020
  19. 50-yard-line

    50-yard-line In the Starting Line-Up

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    I don't see anyone saying it's a good idea, but I wouldn't bet against that being precisely the situation.

    I also don't think it's a stretch to think that the rookies were playing on eggshells, given Brady's public statements and on-field antics, and given that, that they might welcome a chance at actually having balls thrown their way.
     
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  20. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Of course it's a stretch. We've got reports out there that it wasn't even Brady yelling at them in the offseason, because the coaches wanted to control that. In fact, according to reports, that's one of the reasons for Brady's comments about just being an employee, not a coach.
     
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