I'm about 3 players short of a full roster. LFG!!

[Wax Frog]

Is "3 players short of a roster" a nice way of saying "not quite all there"?

I've been thinking the same thing since I first saw this thread

 

[Sicilian]

Based on my count you have up to 10 teams which can justify drafting a QB ahead of NE. The bidding could get out of hand.

I agree on the could, but it's not quite that black and white in my mind. Of those 10 teams, let's say Lawrence and Wilson go to the Jags and Jets, so now we're at 8 teams for 3 remaining "top" guys. All 8 teams might like those three, but it's doubtful that all 8 will like them all enough that they would draft them while still having a QB in house. For example, Minnesota might look at someone like Lance and say, "If he's available, we have to take him, and we'll deal with Cousins later." but might feel that the other two wouldn't be worth that investment. So you start to eliminate suitors as "their guy" goes off the board.

You're definitely right about the bidding, because all it would take is Miami either drafting a guy by surprise, or trading that pick to someone who takes a QB, and all of the sudden there's a mad scramble for the last two. But I doubt all the teams that could justify drafting a QB also A) actually want to and B) will like who's available to them enough to pass on another talented position that could help their current QB now.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Curious, how does:
Smith, Henry, Asiasi and Keane
work with 3 or 4 of them on the field at the same time? Doesn't that create mismatches with size against corners and speed against LBs? Was last year a whiff on TE's or are they cooking up something different, like we saw in the SB against the Rams?
Obvious run personnel on the field, then they spread it out? Just curious

It’s an interesting pojnt and a valid one. When the Ravens took the the NFL by storm 2 seasons ago it was with a 3 te jumbo package. Basically kept teams guessing all year long as they ran into the history books beating the Patriots all time team rushing record from 1978. Although it was college style and sort of a gimmick it was quite effective until they were stopped in their tracks by the Titans in the playoffs.

For some strange reason that free agency turned out to be a head scratcher. They let Hayden Hurst walk which dismantled some of the success of their running game the following season, not to mention Nick Boyles season ending leg injury. Boyle and Hurst were excellent blockers which enabled Mark Andrews to either chip in to help block or go catch passes with defenses confused and guessing. Andrews was horrific last year at every level of pass catching.

At any rate, the Patriots are starting to look like they have the personal to do something similar with some tweaks of their own. Big question now is who the qb will be?

Lamar Jackson has had success throwing for 150-250 yards with a high td to interception rate. It’s not like he is Brady or Mahomes lighting it up with 350+ almost every week.

Cam Newton? Can he replicate Lamar? Nope. 100% could of 5 years ago and then some. For right now, I’d be content with him throwing 200 yards of mistake free football, staying healthy and being a good leader. The players seem to gravitate towards him despite how bad he is at times. Hopefully being another year away from the surgery, a real training camp he will be better.

Everyone knows they are drafting a qb and are going to give whatever it takes. Lance, Fields seem like a fit if they are going to run crazy. Jones seems like a perkins guy. We’ll see, exciting times.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree on the could, but it's not quite that black and white in my mind. Of those 10 teams, let's say Lawrence and Wilson go to the Jags and Jets, so now we're at 8 teams for 3 remaining "top" guys. All 8 teams might like those three, but it's doubtful that all 8 will like them all enough that they would draft them while still having a QB in house. For example, Minnesota might look at someone like Lance and say, "If he's available, we have to take him, and we'll deal with Cousins later." but might feel that the other two wouldn't be worth that investment. So you start to eliminate suitors as "their guy" goes off the board.

You're definitely right about the bidding, because all it would take is Miami either drafting a guy by surprise, or trading that pick to someone who takes a QB, and all of the sudden there's a mad scramble for the last two. But I doubt all the teams that could justify drafting a QB also A) actually want to and B) will like who's available to them enough to pass on another talented position that could help their current QB now.

Good post. Make sense.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If it’s instead of a qb in round 1 I say no.

Short term I'd rather have Jimmy than Cam in 2021. If Jimmy has a 2019 season we can go to the SB.

If they do go for a Qb in RD1 he MUST be ready in 2022, if not mid 2021.

We aren't making any noise in the playoffs with Cam Newton.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree many teams COULD take a QB, but if I was to look at the list and say if it is more likely that they do or do not take a QB, I'd lean towards far fewer.

JAX - duh, Lawrence
NYJ - Would say yes, they go QB
MIA - They'll stick with Tua
ATL - They just committed longer-term to Ryan so I say no
CIN - No
PHI - Think they are more likely to be intentionally bad to shed dead money and rebuild, while also seeing what Hurts has got
DET - No, they'll stick with Goff for now, probably trade back
CAR - Yes they want a QB, probably - if they don't trade for Watson
DEN - They still like Lock
DAL - No
NYG - No
SF - I think yes but not totally sold
LAC - No
MIN - No
NE - Yuuuuup

So that's 4 teams ahead of NE that are more likely a "Yes" than a "No"... which IMO is still too many, they may need to try to get up to 7, maybe higher...

The wild cards are Russ and Deshaun being traded to teams which pick ahead of us who in turn want a QB.

 

[Ring 6]

Short term I'd rather have Jimmy than Cam in 2021. If Jimmy has a 2019 season we can go to the SB.

If they do go for a Qb in RD1 he MUST be ready in 2022, if not mid 2021.

We aren't making any noise in the playoffs with Cam Newton.

1) 1,000,000 times rather have Jimmy than cam
2) For Jimmy to come here we would have to extend him and convert a lot of his 25 mill salary to signing bonus, effectively committing to him.
3) committing to him probably means no 1st round QB
4) I’d rather have a first round QB than commit to a guy who is not reliable to be on the field. Last year really soured me on his injury issues. I get the acl, **** happens.
But last year was the type of injury you play through and he just didn’t do it. He tried and sucked then gave up. That really concerns me.
5) if you give me jimmy on an affordable 1-2 year deal AND. round 1 QB I’m giddy as a school girl on prom night.

 

[Ring 6]

The wild cards are Russ and Deshaun being traded to teams which pick ahead of us who in turn want a QB.

I think we’ve hit zero chance of either being traded any time soon.

 

[mgteich]

Short term I'd rather have Jimmy than Cam in 2021. If Jimmy has a 2019 season we can go to the SB.

If they do go for a Qb in RD1 he MUST be ready in 2022, if not mid 2021.

We aren't making any noise in the playoffs with Cam Newton.

so $25M for Jimmy for 1/2 to 1 year?

I suppose the guarantee would be $40M?

 

[mgteich]

1) 1,000,000 times rather have Jimmy than cam
2) For Jimmy to come here we would have to extend him and convert a lot of his 25 mill salary to signing bonus, effectively committing to him.
3) committing to him probably means no 1st round QB
4) I’d rather have a first round QB than commit to a guy who is not reliable to be on the field. Last year really soured me on his injury issues. I get the acl, **** happens.
But last year was the type of injury you play through and he just didn’t do it. He tried and sucked then gave up. That really concerns me.
5) if you give me jimmy on an affordable 1-2 year deal AND. round 1 QB I’m giddy as a school girl on prom night.

"affordable"? I guess so.

If we trade for Jimmy, we would convert $24M of his salary to bonus, giving us a $13M cap hit ($14M including roster and workout bonuses). We would be pushing $12M into the future. This is certainly a reasonable deal if and only if we get a first round QB. I guess we would send SF a 2nd for Jimmy.

Since, I have always presumed a $20M-$25M cost for a 2021 quarterback, this makes sense to me.

 

[patfanken]

I almost forgot that one of the guys I really wanted (certainly a lot more than McMillan) was Kwan Alexander, who was cut by the Saints earlier in the month. ANOTHER guy who fits the sideline to sideline LB mold that I've been harping on. To my knowledge no one has signed him yet. He is coming back from an injury of some kind so that might be a factor. Anyone want to rid ourselves of JBentley and add another LB with speed.

 

[mgteich]

I almost forgot that one of the guys I really wanted (certainly a lot more than McMillan) was Kwan Alexander, who was cut by the Saints earlier in the month. ANOTHER guy who fits the sideline to sideline LB mold that I've been harping on. To my knowledge no one has signed him yet. He is coming back from an injury of some kind so that might be a factor. Anyone want to rid ourselves of JBentley and add another LB with speed.

It isn't clear whether Bentley has a job.

In any case, sure, we all would like to see an acquisition that is better than Bentley.

 

[Ring 6]

"affordable"? I guess so.

If we trade for Jimmy, we would convert $24M of his salary to bonus, giving us a $13M cap hit ($14M including roster and workout bonuses). We would be pushing $12M into the future. This is certainly a reasonable deal if and only if we get a first round QB. I guess we would send SF a 2nd for Jimmy.

Since, I have always presumed a $20M-$25M cost for a 2021 quarterback, this makes sense to me.

Not sure adding one year makes the cap work for this year. And next years hit would include a normal salary plus 12 mill.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Pats, even after all these signings, are exactly average on remaining cap availability and draft capital:



We don't have room for 10 draftees, so clearly Bill will move up some and/or swap for some picks next year. A cheap rookie QB allows so much cap flexibility for the next 4/5 years that there is pretty much no price too great to grab one.

Potentially we have to compete with QB-needy teams below us in the draft order too - they would just have to add a bit extra to match us in moving up to 7th (or wherever).

In terms of ammunition, we have this year's first, next year's first (devalued by our improving team), assorted late round picks that won't move the needle much, and some potentially dispensable players. Gilmore (currently devalued by knee), Edelman (ditto), Winovich (not that good fit for us apparently, but he's cheap and splashy and so might be attractive), and Harry could all be part of any deal.

 

[mgteich]

Not sure adding one year makes the cap work for this year. And next years hit would include a normal salary plus 12 mill.

Are you suggesting that we pay Jimmy less than $25M for his 2021 services?

I was simply trading for him, and accepting his $25M a year price, and then moving $12M into 2022. If all works out, we cut him or trade him after the season and have a $12M dead cap hit. If the first rounder isn't ready, or if we need to draft another, then we have Jimmy for $25M with the need to extend, with a fake year or not.

 

[RobertWeathers]

so $25M for Jimmy for 1/2 to 1 year?

I suppose the guarantee would be $40M?

Not sure . I'm assuming if they get Jimmy they'd extend him to spread out the $26m. They might guarantee some of it but I can't see them offering new money.

I need to think it thru some more

 

[mgteich]

Not sure . I'm assuming if they get Jimmy they'd extend him to spread out the $26m. They might guarantee some of it but I can't see them offering new money.

I need to think it thru some more

fair enough

If Jimmy is worth $25M, we can trade for him, and restructure his contract (at our choice) to move $12M into 2022.

After this season, we can choose whether to pay the $37M in 2022, or to extend (even if it just to add a fake year).

I think that there isn't a need to renegotiate with Jimmy now. A 2 year contract seems best. After all, Year 2 isn't at all guaranteed.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Kinda like "4 cans short of a six pack"???

I once saw a hilarious list of actual comments on personnel evaluations. One of them said "Not 1 can short of a 6-pack, but missing the plastic thing that holds them together."

 

[patsfaninpa]

I’m just not sold on Fields or Lance. Want to hedge my bet. Hope Devonta or Parsons fall to 15. Move up a little in 2nd for Mond

 

[captain stone]

We are short of a full roster at the following positions:

- Starting QB

- #1 WR

- #2 WR

- Starting LG

- Starting DE

- 0/1-tech DT

- Weak-side LB

- #4 CB