Browns now say pick #4 is for sale. IMO we go for it....but not a QB!

[Triumph]

That draft chart is kind of outdated. But, if they're going to move up that far and give up the kind of capital necessary to do it, it needs to be for one of the QBs. I don't like the idea of giving up that much to move into the top 5.

All the top QBs have flaws.

 

[Kontradiction]

All the top QBs have flaws.

Every prospect in this or any draft has flaws.

 

[sambam94]

new draft year, same old pats moving up posts..not happening folks

 

[Triumph]

Every prospect in this or any draft has flaws.

Sure, but the high risk way has never been the Pats MO.

There will be other QBs like Luettta who are low risk.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

new draft year, same old pats moving up posts..not happening folks

Chandler jones says hi

 

[Kontradiction]

Sure, but the high risk way has never been the Pats MO.

There will be other QBs like Luettta who are low risk.

Historically, the number of lower-round QBs that have made impacts in the NFL is lower than higher-round QBs. Yeah, the risk is there. But successfully hitting on an impact player at the position in the lower rounds ends up in failure more often than not. Furthermore, giving up that kind of capital to move up is risky no matter who the prospect is.

 

[varjao]

This will be a terribly unpopular thought, but I’d personally feel more comfortable giving up 3 high round picks including the two firsts, to take Barkley, who I think could be more of a “sure thing” than any of the QBs. This is all hypothetical anyway, since none of these scenarios will happen and 3 high round picks wouldn’t be enough, but I think a franchise RB who can produce both as a bell cow back and a shifty receiver a la Elliot/Bell is worth quite a bit.

We’ve all seen what a superb rushing attack and strong defense can do, and I think you could take a flier on a guy like Falk, White, etc, with less of a gamble. I’m not all that sold on any of these so-called “franchise” QBs. I watched Darnold look like a bad high schooler at times. He looked downright pathetic in some of the bigger games. Allen and Jackson seem to have accuracy issues. Mayfield is already a loose cannon and has some questions due to his height and maturity. Rosen may be the safest choice.

I’m not suggesting that all of these QBs will fail because they won’t, but I’m pondering the idea of the RB being less of a gamble, and I haven’t seen anyone bring that possibility up, yet. Again, it’s a pointless exercise, but with all of this talk about moving up into the top 4-5, it’s something that I’m surprised didn’t at least get some discussion.

I used to think that this team would really benefit from a blue chip RB but the cost/benefit of drafting a RB that high ais awful.

There is a nice discussion in this thread



I was reading the other day on the gym and saved it, there is a guy down there on the thread (OOD115) explaining all the financial aspects also involved and makes it clear it's not worth to invest a top draft pick on a RB.

I know Barkley is sure thing but anyway there are some teams that if you are there (top of the draft) you pick him because it's going to help you to make this transition from a 2-12 team to a respectable team while you develop your QB, but for other teams you just don't build around a RB, much less do a trade up for one.

Specifically, it makes so much sense for the Browns that if they don't draft him at #4 they deserve to suffer for another 20 years.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

That draft chart is kind of outdated.

Yup. The rookie contract caps have changed up that chart.

 

[sambam94]

Chandler jones says hi

27 to 21..meh

 

[Triumph]

Historically, the number of lower-round QBs that have made impacts in the NFL is lower than higher-round QBs. Yeah, the risk is there. But successfully hitting on an impact player at the position in the lower rounds ends up in failure more often than not. Furthermore, giving up that kind of capital to move up is risky no matter who the prospect is.

Actually, the percentage of 1st round QB success stories is nothing to write home about.

29 QBs drafted in round 1 over the last 10 years and 15 have been busts. Basically you have a 50 - 50 shot at 51% of landing a keeper.

Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Manziel
Ted Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
RG3
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Same Bradford
Tebow
Sanchez
Josh Freeman

We have not even touched JMarcus RusselL and Brady Quinn territory.

DraftHistory.com

 

[Triumph]

Historically, the number of lower-round QBs that have made impacts in the NFL is lower than higher-round QBs. Yeah, the risk is there. But successfully hitting on an impact player at the position in the lower rounds ends up in failure more often than not. Furthermore, giving up that kind of capital to move up is risky no matter who the prospect is.

For some teams that is true.

Dak Prescott 4th
Russel Wilson 3rd
Jimmy G 2nd
Nick Foles 3rd
Kirk Cousins 4th
Andy Dalton 2nd
Matt Cassell 7th

I will be trust BB to find a low round low risk replacement.

 

[Kontradiction]

For some teams that is true.

Dak Prescott 4th
Russel Wilson 3rd
Jimmy G 2nd
Nick Foles 3rd
Kirk Cousins 4th
Andy Dalton 2nd
Matt Cassell 7th

I will be trust BB to find a low round low risk replacement.

2012 produced two guys in the first round that, to date, are bonafide NFL starters at the position. The rest of the draft produced two guys. 2013 produced 0 QBs that are still NFL starters to date. 2014 produced two in the first, two in the rest of the draft. 2015 produced 2 in the first, 0 in the rest of the draft. 2016 produced two in the first round that are starters to date and 1 in the rest of the draft. That makes 8 bonafide starting QBs, to date, in the first round and 5 in the later rounds. So while you can find starters in the later rounds, you have a better chance in the first round. But, like I said, any time you move up it is risky. That doesn't change depending on the position.

 

[lancerman]

Actually, the percentage of 1st round QB success stories is nothing to write home about.

29 QBs drafted in round 1 over the last 10 years and 15 have been busts. Basically you have a 50 - 50 shot at 51% of landing a keeper.

Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Manziel
Ted Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
RG3
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Same Bradford
Tebow
Sanchez
Josh Freeman

We have not even touched JMarcus RusselL and Brady Quinn territory.

DraftHistory.com

Make a list of the greatest QB's of all time. The vast majority (Elway, Marino, etc) will be first round picks and a good chunk will be high second round picks. Guys like Montana and Brady are super rarities.

And for the record Sanchez made an AFCCG, RGIII and Bridgewater played very well and then got injured (one was a freak injury, one was entirely on the coach, Too early to call Winston a bust just yet, he's exactly who he was in college.

There are always going to be busts at that position because desperate teams will reach when they need to. In this league you can't win without a QB.

The reality is though that there is a FAR FAR greater probability of a first round pick being all time great, elite, or even just franchise level than a later rounder.

 

[lancerman]

For some teams that is true.

Dak Prescott 4th
Russel Wilson 3rd
Jimmy G 2nd
Nick Foles 3rd
Kirk Cousins 4th
Andy Dalton 2nd
Matt Cassell 7th

I will be trust BB to find a low round low risk replacement.

Dak got carried by an offensive line and running game. He is struggling now.

Russel got carried by his defense his first few years and got to slowly develop into his own.

Jimmy G played 6 games, he's not proven yet.

Nick Foles is a back up who gets streaky.

Cousins is a good.

Dalton is largely mediocre.

Cassell is not a starter.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

The Browns have been taking offers for #4 and have been reluctant. Of course if some one came for pick #1 that is a bigger haul.

They now say they will listen.

Pick #4 is worth 1,800 points accord to the Draft Trade Chart.
Our picks #23, #31 and #43 are worth 1,830
To be sure the Browns are inundated with picks.
Perhaps they would spin back a fifth rounder we do not have #150 with a value of 31 points.
1,800 vs. 1,831

The good news for the Browns is 3 first rounders and 4 second rounders.

O.K. We make the deal. Which QB?

Nope Cousins, I am going for Bradley Chubb.

Instead of sitting on the bench for two or three years, he plays day one and brings new youth and talent to our talent limited D line.

If I am going to give up that wampum, rather have a "blue chipper" to start now.

So now:
#4 Chubb

#63 Jewell LB?
#95 Lauletta QB?
#150 P.J. Hall DT?
#198 Trade with Eagles for Kendrick OLB?
#210 Brandon Parker OT
#219 Jordan Thomas TE

Thoughts?
DW Toys

*** Dead on Arrival ***

Can you name a position group on this team that is overly stocked with YOUNG talent???

What if we follow your advice, draft one player with 3-4 picks, and he gets hurt? Members here would be pissed as we sign people off the street due to the talent shortage that occur.

 

[signbabybrady]

Of course he'd care.

Of course he'd care. He's going to have feelings on the subject. If feels that good about the player to trade up I think he'd be thrilled that a player he couldn't retain helped him get a player he thinks could actually still be here to replace the GOAT.
Even if he had hoped to replace TB with JG his boss may have told him he had to stay with Tom in which case it would be reasonable to think he might be mad at Kraft but still be happy the player he couldn't retain got him another QB.

 

[DW Toys]

If we’re talking moving all the way up into the top 4-5, then two firsts surely isn’t going to cut it. Not even close. As a matter of fact, I’m skeptical to believe that both firsts AND #43 would be good enough. It probably wouldn’t be.

Also, if they’d somehow choose to give everything up and move into the top 4-5 just to take Lamar freaking Jackson, I’d absolutely lose my sh!t.

I was speaking to the idea of Jackson falling into the mid-teens and Belichick moving up 8-10 spots by parting with both firsts, but again, I wouldn’t be too thrilled with that idea, either. Personally, I don’t think they’ll move up more than a few spots, if that’s the direction they choose to go. I’m also expecting one of the first 5 picks to be traded into next year. With 2 thirds from comp picks, that could set us up nicely, again.

Why does it seem that Posters here think Jackson would be a fit here? I don't get it. You would have to reformulate the entire offense. The kid is a phenom but a less than 60% completion percentage. I think he'd be fun but he scares the crap out of me as a Pats QB.

I think Deus is right.Swapping to swap to get a QB you just swapped out of here and for the most obvious, not as talented as the QB you just moved is nuts.

In another scenario if we trade for #4, how much wampum we could get back for that pick. We hope the Browns panic and the Bills don't offer their picks that are an overpay.
Still our haul for them is not bad.
DW Toys

 

[Ring 6]

Dak got carried by an offensive line and running game. He is struggling now.

Russel got carried by his defense his first few years and got to slowly develop into his own.

Jimmy G played 6 games, he's not proven yet.

Nick Foles is a back up who gets streaky.

Cousins is a good.

Dalton is largely mediocre.

Cassell is not a starter.

You could do the same type of commentary on many first rounders as well.

 

[Ring 6]

Make a list of the greatest QB's of all time. The vast majority (Elway, Marino, etc) will be first round picks and a good chunk will be high second round picks. Guys like Montana and Brady are super rarities.

And for the record Sanchez made an AFCCG, RGIII and Bridgewater played very well and then got injured (one was a freak injury, one was entirely on the coach, Too early to call Winston a bust just yet, he's exactly who he was in college.

There are always going to be busts at that position because desperate teams will reach when they need to. In this league you can't win without a QB.

The reality is though that there is a FAR FAR greater probability of a first round pick being all time great, elite, or even just franchise level than a later rounder.

You really aren’t calling Sanchez or RG III successful picks or good qbs are you?

 

[mgteich]

I agree that the draft charts are somewhat outdated for the top 5, especially quarterbacks.

That draft chart is kind of outdated. But, if they're going to move up that far and give up the kind of capital necessary to do it, it needs to be for one of the QBs. I don't like the idea of giving up that much to move into the top 5.