More
interesting and
revealing facts...
the descriptive words are imo.
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is the main statistic used on Football Outsiders. It breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. In all cases, 0% represents league-average. A positive DVOA represents a situation that favors the offense, while a negative DVOA represents a situation that favors the defense. In most years, the best and worst offenses tend to rate around ± 30%, while the best and worst defenses tend to rate around ± 25%.
Patriots from 2000-2020
| Year | OFF | RK | DEF | RK | WINS |
|---|
| 2000 | -7.5% | 21 | 5.7% | 22 | 5 |
| 2001 | 3.4% | 11 | -1.5% | 13 | 11 |
| 2002 | 7.2% | 9 | -1.6% | 14 | 9 |
| 2003 | 1.2% | 14 | -18.7% | 2 | 14 |
| 2004 | 23.3% | 3 | -10.7% | 7 | 14 |
| 2005 | 17.5% | 7 | 9.2% | 27 | 10 |
| 2006 | 14.1% | 4 | -9.2% | 7 | 12 |
| 2007 | 43.5% | 1 | -5.8% | 11 | 16 |
| 2008 | 12.5% | 7 | 3.6% | 17 | 11 |
| 2009 | 26.4% | 1 | -1.1% | 14 | 10 |
| 2010 | 42.2% | 1 | 2.3% | 21 | 14 |
| 2011 | 31.9% | 3 | 13.2% | 30 | 13 |
| 2012 | 30.8% | 1 | 1.4% | 15 | 12 |
| 2013 | 16.4% | 4 | 4.2% | 20 | 12 |
| 2014 | 13.5% | 6 | -3.0% | 12 | 12 |
| 2015 | 15.4% | 5 | -3.3% | 12 | 12 |
| 2016 | 20.8% | 2 | -1.8% | 16 | 14 |
| 2017 | 27.3% | 1 | 10.9% | 31 | 13 |
| 2018 | 14.5% | 5 | 0.4% | 16 | 11 |
| 2019 | 4.1% | 11 | -26.4% | 1 | 12 |
| 2020 | -7.3% | 23 | 8.0% | 26 | 9 |
1) You can see the offensive jump from 2000 with Bledsoe (-7.5% with a ranking of 21) to 2001 with Brady (3.4% with a ranking of 11).
2) The only 2 seasons when the offense finished below the league average were 2000 (Bledsoe) and 2020 (Newton). Every season with Brady the offense finished above the league average.
3) From the record setting 2007 season, when the offense set an all-time best DVOA of 43.5%, they dropped precipitously in 2008 with a DVOA of 12.5% (a difference of 31% which alone would have been higher than any other team's percentage of 2007 and 2008). The second best offensive DVOA of all-time was set by the 2010 Patriots at 42.2%. Both seasons (2007 & 2010) being MVP seasons for Brady.
4) In 18 seasons with Brady the offense finished top-10 in 15 seasons, top-5 in 11 seasons, top-3 in 8 seasons, and top-1 in 5 seasons.
In those same 18 seasons the defense finished top-10 in 4 seasons, top-5 in 2 seasons, top-3 in 2 seasons, and top-1 in 1 season.
5) In 18 seasons with Brady the offense finished with a higher ranking DVOA than the defense in all but 2 seasons (2003 & 2019). Football Outsiders ranked the Patriots 2019 schedule as the easiest in the NFL (based on the average DVOA of opponents). Their opponents total DVOA (offense & defense) was -5.9% while only 1 other team's opponents were worse than -4.0%.
2019 Strength of Schedule by Total DVOA of All Opponents (negative score reflects easier):
Patriots -5.9%
Colts -4.4%
Bills -4.0%
Titans -3.9%
Jets -3.5%
6) Not reflected in the table, however Tampa Bay improved significantly in offensive DVOA from 2019 (-7.3% with a ranking of 21) to 2020 (19.8% with a ranking of 3). From 2007 to 2008 the Patriots dropped by 5 wins, again this was the case for the 2020 Patriots, whereas the Bucs improved by 4 wins from 2019 to 2020. Considering the significantly changed DVOA with or without Brady, it's reasonable to assume he accounts for a large portion of the win/loss differential.
Leaving out strength of schedule, adding or removing Brady has impacted win/loss totals as follows: +6 wins 2001, +5 losses 2008, +5 losses 2020 NE, and +4 wins 2020 TB. Brady is generally worth a net gain of 5 wins per initial season. Also on each occasion his impact has added his team to the postseason (2001 & 2020 TB) or removed them (2008 & 2020 NE).
www.highereddive.com
