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Hyped

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I felt the same way but then 2018 changed my thinking. It's funny how no matter how well Brady performs, during games and in seasons overall, most of us never think he can overcome the obstacles, but then he does just about every time.

Brady is doing something wholly unprecedented.... he is definitely an outlier. Sure, there may be more QB's playing at 40+years old because of improved nutrition, less hits on QB's nowadays, and etc...etc... but will anyone be as good as Brady was this year? Tossing 40 TD's like it was nothing?

I seriously wonder what Brady will do for his post-football career....I mean he isn't someone to sit around doing nothing...but he isn't a good actor/announcer...and I don't see him getting into coaching either.... politics? Nah.....

I am interested in what he will do when he hangs em' up because the guy has been 100% football 24/7/365 for 25 years now....
 

1960Pats

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I actually legitimately do. The guy clearly isn’t doing very well. I’m guessing depression, but who knows?
That reminds me, in my old days as an AOLe I decided to create a joke thread titled "The Doctor Is In" and said that I was a psychiatrist. It was filled up fast and no matter what the questions or comments were I always responded with "I see... go on." Pretty soon I had people claiming to be suicidal, people claiming to be trying to help them and people who were criticizing me for not helping them more. What are the odds that any of them were real?
 

1960Pats

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Brady is doing something wholly unprecedented.... he is definitely an outlier. Sure, there may be more QB's playing at 40+years old because of improved nutrition, less hits on QB's nowadays, and etc...etc... but will anyone be as good as Brady was this year? Tossing 40 TD's like it was nothing?

I seriously wonder what Brady will do for his post-football career....I mean he isn't someone to sit around doing nothing...but he isn't a good actor/announcer...and I don't see him getting into coaching either.... politics? Nah.....

I am interested in what he will do when he hangs em' up because the guy has been 100% football 24/7/365 for 25 years now....
I remember taking heat for claiming that Brady would become President after he was invited to the WH by Bush early on. I wouldn't be surprised if he did go that route but the pols seem to want to keep decent folks out.
 

Rob0729

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Robert Edwards was the player taken with the 1st they got for Martin. If not for the foolishness of playing flag football in the sand at the Pro Bowl that pick would have worked out just fine.

Maybe. He had a good rookie year. We will never know if he would have sustained that over his career, but I cede the point.
 

Hyped

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I remember taking heat for claiming that Brady would become President after he was invited to the WH by Bush early on. I wouldn't be surprised if he did go that route but the pols seem to want to keep decent folks out.

He backtracked and got rid of the red MAGA hat. Then he said, "my wife told me to STFU"....

I don't think politics is his arena...
 

TheRainMaker

I'm getting my res at Dorsia
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Robert Edwards was the player taken with the 1st they got for Martin. If not for the foolishness of playing flag football in the sand at the Pro Bowl that pick would have worked out just fine.
Who knew that a harmless flag football game in the sand would've wrecked his career? Talk about a freak injury. Aside from that, he showed promise in a league where teams focused on stopping the run first and ran behind an aging/terrible run blocking line. He also had a downgrade at FB with Tony Carter. There was no reason to let Sam Gash go.
 

RobertWeathers

Chairman & CEO of Team Bill
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Who knew that a harmless flag football game in the sand would've wrecked his career? Talk about a freak injury. Aside from that, he showed promise in a league where teams focused on stopping the run first and ran behind an aging/terrible run blocking line.
I have an issue with Notorious Bobby Idiot Grier and his handling of C-Mart

I had no issue with Grier drafting Edwards. Damn shame.

He also had a downgrade at FB with Tony Carter. There was no reason to let Sam Gash go.
DaBruinz and I were just chatting about this. Another Notorious BIG brain cramp.
 

KontradictioN

Probably the nicest guy on the forum
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It's kind of interesting to only see one side of these type of back and forth posts. It's happened a lot since I upgraded my ignore list.
I only used the ignore list for Rusty/Stevenson/whatever other name he went by last time he was here.
 

BradytoMosstoGronk

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
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Thread now has 2x as many replies/posts as BGCs words thread. That one was started in August of 20, this one 3 weeks ago.
 

TheRainMaker

I'm getting my res at Dorsia
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I have an issue with Notorious Bobby Idiot Grier and his handling of C-Mart

I had no issue with Grier drafting Edwards. Damn shame.


DaBruinz and I were just chatting about this. Another Notorious BIG brain cramp.
Martin's situation reminds me of Aqib Talib's situation. Kraft mentions that there were some injury concerns with him in College and he wasn't 100% for the Super Bowl vs the Packers and then missed the '97 playoffs. However, I'd like to know where their offer of $2M per year ranked among RB's during that time. I'm assuming it was laughably low given he ended up getting $6M per year average from the Jets. It was a blessing for Martin though, as he went to a team that was building a young-talented-massive O-line that had him running wild. Pats O-line was aging and terrible run blockers.

Similar to Martin, Talib got injured in the 2012 AFCCG against the Ravens and "Joe ball Joe" was born. But I think the nail in the coffin for him not getting a new deal was getting KO'd by little Wes Welker in the 2013 AFCCG.

 

Rob0729

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Martin's situation reminds me of Aqib Talib's situation. Kraft mentions that there were some injury concerns with him in College and he wasn't 100% for the Super Bowl vs the Packers and then missed the '97 playoffs. However, I'd like to know where their offer of $2M per year ranked among RB's during that time. I'm assuming it was laughably low given he ended up getting $6M per year average from the Jets. It was a blessing for Martin though, as he went to a team that was building a young-talented-massive O-line that had him running wild. Pats O-line was aging and terrible run blockers.

Similar to Martin, Talib got injured in the 2012 AFCCG against the Ravens and "Joe ball Joe" was born. But I think the nail in the coffin for him not getting a new deal was getting KO'd by little Wes Welker in the 2013 AFCCG.


Talib was consistently injured in the playoffs for the Patriots. That was his problem. It kinda p**sed me off when he went to the Broncos and could stay healthy. But Talib had chronic hip problems with the Pats.

I think the Martin thing was different. I don't think the Pats felt like RB was as valued of a position. Also, Bobby Grier tweaked Martin the wrong way by forcing Martin to play on his RFA tender and then brag about how much of a great player personnel manager he was because he had Martin playing for something like $300k on that tender.
 

TheRainMaker

I'm getting my res at Dorsia
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Talib was consistently injured in the playoffs for the Patriots.
Martin was injured for the '96 Super Bowl and served mostly as a decoy ala Gronk in 2011. Missed the '97 playoffs. That's where I'm thinking they had their reservations.

I don't think the Pats felt like RB was as valued of a position.
They must've missed the memo because it was imperative to have a good ground game or your team was toast in that era.
 

RobertWeathers

Chairman & CEO of Team Bill
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Martin's situation reminds me of Aqib Talib's situation. Kraft mentions that there were some injury concerns with him in College and he wasn't 100% for the Super Bowl vs the Packers and then missed the '97 playoffs. However, I'd like to know where their offer of $2M per year ranked among RB's during that time. I'm assuming it was laughably low given he ended up getting $6M per year average from the Jets. It was a blessing for Martin though, as he went to a team that was building a young-talented-massive O-line that had him running wild. Pats O-line was aging and terrible run blockers.

Similar to Martin, Talib got injured in the 2012 AFCCG against the Ravens and "Joe ball Joe" was born. But I think the nail in the coffin for him not getting a new deal was getting KO'd by little Wes Welker in the 2013 AFCCG.

Barry Sanders made $5.7m AAV so the NYJ did make him the highest paid RB in the NFL.


I dunno. Not sure about the SB injury but C-Mart had a sep shoulder and groin injury in 97 which put him out of action.

Either way, it was short-sighted by Grier. Idiot.
 

203Pat

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Who knew that a harmless flag football game in the sand would've wrecked his career? Talk about a freak injury. Aside from that, he showed promise in a league where teams focused on stopping the run first and ran behind an aging/terrible run blocking line. He also had a downgrade at FB with Tony Carter. There was no reason to let Sam Gash go.
I was beside myself as a little kid when Sam Gash left. He was out on the field warming up before a game my dad took me too and I saw he was number 33 and I yelled out that I had the same number and he came over and said hi and signed my hat. I was on cloud 9.
 

RobertWeathers

Chairman & CEO of Team Bill
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I was beside myself as a little kid when Sam Gash left. He was out on the field warming up before a game my dad took me too and I saw he was number 33 and I yelled out that I had the same number and he came over and said hi and signed my hat. I was on cloud 9.
In 1998 the NFL salary cap was $52m. in 1998 Gash signed a 3y/$3.3m deal w BUF w/ $750k bonus. Mouse nuts.

To say Sam Gash was not worth 2% of the cap to THAT TEAM is unconscionable.

I was almost as upset as Sam leaving as I was C-Mart.
 

crawhammer

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
More interesting and revealing facts... the descriptive words are imo.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is the main statistic used on Football Outsiders. It breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. In all cases, 0% represents league-average. A positive DVOA represents a situation that favors the offense, while a negative DVOA represents a situation that favors the defense. In most years, the best and worst offenses tend to rate around ± 30%, while the best and worst defenses tend to rate around ± 25%.

Patriots from 2000-2020

YearOFFRKDEFRKWINS
2000-7.5%215.7%225
20013.4%11-1.5%1311
20027.2%9-1.6%149
20031.2%14-18.7%214
200423.3%3-10.7%714
200517.5%79.2%2710
200614.1%4-9.2%712
200743.5%1-5.8%1116
200812.5%73.6%1711
200926.4%1-1.1%1410
201042.2%12.3%2114
201131.9%313.2%3013
201230.8%11.4%1512
201316.4%44.2%2012
201413.5%6-3.0%1212
201515.4%5-3.3%1212
201620.8%2-1.8%1614
201727.3%110.9%3113
201814.5%50.4%1611
20194.1%11-26.4%112
2020-7.3%238.0%269

1) You can see the offensive jump from 2000 with Bledsoe (-7.5% with a ranking of 21) to 2001 with Brady (3.4% with a ranking of 11).

2) The only 2 seasons when the offense finished below the league average were 2000 (Bledsoe) and 2020 (Newton). Every season with Brady the offense finished above the league average.

3) From the record setting 2007 season, when the offense set an all-time best DVOA of 43.5%, they dropped precipitously in 2008 with a DVOA of 12.5% (a difference of 31% which alone would have been higher than any other team's percentage of 2007 and 2008). The second best offensive DVOA of all-time was set by the 2010 Patriots at 42.2%. Both seasons (2007 & 2010) being MVP seasons for Brady.

4) In 18 seasons with Brady the offense finished top-10 in 15 seasons, top-5 in 11 seasons, top-3 in 8 seasons, and top-1 in 5 seasons.
In those same 18 seasons the defense finished top-10 in 4 seasons, top-5 in 2 seasons, top-3 in 2 seasons, and top-1 in 1 season.

5) In 18 seasons with Brady the offense finished with a higher ranking DVOA than the defense in all but 2 seasons (2003 & 2019). Football Outsiders ranked the Patriots 2019 schedule as the easiest in the NFL (based on the average DVOA of opponents). Their opponents total DVOA (offense & defense) was -5.9% while only 1 other team's opponents were worse than -4.0%.

2019 Strength of Schedule by Total DVOA of All Opponents (negative score reflects easier):

Patriots -5.9%
Colts -4.4%
Bills -4.0%
Titans -3.9%
Jets -3.5%

6) Not reflected in the table, however Tampa Bay improved significantly in offensive DVOA from 2019 (-7.3% with a ranking of 21) to 2020 (19.8% with a ranking of 3). From 2007 to 2008 the Patriots dropped by 5 wins, again this was the case for the 2020 Patriots, whereas the Bucs improved by 4 wins from 2019 to 2020. Considering the significantly changed DVOA with or without Brady, it's reasonable to assume he accounts for a large portion of the win/loss differential.

Leaving out strength of schedule, adding or removing Brady has impacted win/loss totals as follows: +6 wins 2001, +5 losses 2008, +5 losses 2020 NE, and +4 wins 2020 TB. Brady is generally worth a net gain of 5 wins per initial season. Also on each occasion his impact has added his team to the postseason (2001 & 2020 TB) or removed them (2008 & 2020 NE).
 

Tony2046

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So what team do I follow, if it's not this one? And why on earth would you
Such a schmuck.

I personally doubt your proclaimed credentials.

Have you ever won an argument here? No.

Anyway, for you to criticize or minimize any school is laugh worthy.
 

Tony2046

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More interesting and revealing facts... the descriptive words are imo.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) is the main statistic used on Football Outsiders. It breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. In all cases, 0% represents league-average. A positive DVOA represents a situation that favors the offense, while a negative DVOA represents a situation that favors the defense. In most years, the best and worst offenses tend to rate around ± 30%, while the best and worst defenses tend to rate around ± 25%.

Patriots from 2000-2020

YearOFFRKDEFRKWINS
2000-7.5%215.7%225
20013.4%11-1.5%1311
20027.2%9-1.6%149
20031.2%14-18.7%214
200423.3%3-10.7%714
200517.5%79.2%2710
200614.1%4-9.2%712
200743.5%1-5.8%1116
200812.5%73.6%1711
200926.4%1-1.1%1410
201042.2%12.3%2114
201131.9%313.2%3013
201230.8%11.4%1512
201316.4%44.2%2012
201413.5%6-3.0%1212
201515.4%5-3.3%1212
201620.8%2-1.8%1614
201727.3%110.9%3113
201814.5%50.4%1611
20194.1%11-26.4%112
2020-7.3%238.0%269

1) You can see the offensive jump from 2000 with Bledsoe (-7.5% with a ranking of 21) to 2001 with Brady (3.4% with a ranking of 11).

2) The only 2 seasons when the offense finished below the league average were 2000 (Bledsoe) and 2020 (Newton). Every season with Brady the offense finished above the league average.

3) From the record setting 2007 season, when the offense set an all-time best DVOA of 43.5%, they dropped precipitously in 2008 with a DVOA of 12.5% (a difference of 31% which alone would have been higher than any other team's percentage of 2007 and 2008). The second best offensive DVOA of all-time was set by the 2010 Patriots at 42.2%. Both seasons (2007 & 2010) being MVP seasons for Brady.

4) In 18 seasons with Brady the offense finished top-10 in 15 seasons, top-5 in 11 seasons, top-3 in 8 seasons, and top-1 in 5 seasons.
In those same 18 seasons the defense finished top-10 in 4 seasons, top-5 in 2 seasons, top-3 in 2 seasons, and top-1 in 1 season.

5) In 18 seasons with Brady the offense finished with a higher ranking DVOA than the defense in all but 2 seasons (2003 & 2019). Football Outsiders ranked the Patriots 2019 schedule as the easiest in the NFL (based on the average DVOA of opponents). Their opponents total DVOA (offense & defense) was -5.9% while only 1 other team's opponents were worse than -4.0%.

2019 Strength of Schedule by Total DVOA of All Opponents (negative score reflects easier):

Patriots -5.9%
Colts -4.4%
Bills -4.0%
Titans -3.9%
Jets -3.5%

6) Not reflected in the table, however Tampa Bay improved significantly in offensive DVOA from 2019 (-7.3% with a ranking of 21) to 2020 (19.8% with a ranking of 3). From 2007 to 2008 the Patriots dropped by 5 wins, again this was the case for the 2020 Patriots, whereas the Bucs improved by 4 wins from 2019 to 2020. Considering the significantly changed DVOA with or without Brady, it's reasonable to assume he accounts for a large portion of the win/loss differential.

Leaving out strength of schedule, adding or removing Brady has impacted win/loss totals as follows: +6 wins 2001, +5 losses 2008, +5 losses 2020 NE, and +4 wins 2020 TB. Brady is generally worth a net gain of 5 wins per initial season. Also on each occasion his impact has added his team to the postseason (2001 & 2020 TB) or removed them (2008 & 2020 NE).
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