2017 Training Camp - Day 14 (8/16/17) [2nd Joint Practice with the Texans]

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

By the way, the NFL's top 5 YPC for 2016 were actually

Kapri Bibbs - 37.5 ypc
Josh Doctson - 33.0 ypc
Quinton Dunbar - 31.0 ypc
Bryce Treggs - 25.7 ypc
Tavarres King - 25.0 ypc

So, by your metric, there are the top 5 deep threats in the NFL.

You named 5 guys who COMBINED for 10 catches, none with more than 3.

Obviously for any stat like that to be meaningful, you have to have had a meaningful number of opportunities.

Do you celebrate Julian Edelman for his career average of 25.5 yards per attempt as a passer (though it was recently cut in half)?

 

[AtomicDawg]

Maybe this will bring this thread back to normal. Here's a shot of Gronk and JJ Watt going at it on the field. 2 warriors battling it out.

 

[Deus Irae]

Curious Deus, how would you measure a deep threat?

I ask because I'm not sure myself.

I remember having arguments about this years ago, though I don't remember who with...

Any eligible player can threaten deep on any play. I generally break the field down into 9 zones

Inside 10 yards left/Inside 10 yards middle/Inside 10 yards right
11-20 as above
21+ as above

If you want to find the guys that are truly the best deep threats, find the guys who force teams to game plan them, specifically, even at 21+, and who still make the big plays downfield. When we do that, we're looking at guys like Dez Bryant, DeSean Jackson and Julio Jones, not guys like Hogan or Edelman.

 

[Deus Irae]

You named 5 guys who COMBINED for 10 catches, none with more than 3.

Obviously for any stat like that to be meaningful, you have to have had a meaningful number of opportunities.

Do you celebrate Julian Edelman for his career average of 25.5 yards per attempt as a passer (though it was recently cut in half)?

Take it up with the poster who only used YPC as his metric. And thank you for helping to make my point.

 

[Tony2046]

You named 5 guys who COMBINED for 10 catches, none with more than 3.

Obviously for any stat like that to be meaningful, you have to have had a meaningful number of opportunities.

Do you celebrate Julian Edelman for his career average of 25.5 yards per attempt as a passer (though it was recently cut in half)?

Deus was arguing against a previous poster's usage of YPC.

 

[AtomicDawg]

Howe does a great job here. He notes that this is the final TC practice that will be open to media and fans.

Patriots camp observations: Texans challenge Patriots again as Gilmore returns

 

[Tony2046]

@Deus Irae - This seems closer to the truth.


So this is the top 20 WR's sorted by 20+ yard receptions in 2016:

Note: Hogan ranked 32nd. Julian Ranked: 35th.

 

[Bcc66duece]

Any photos?

I took some videos but they didn't turn out too good. I had the sun glaring on my screen so it was really hard to follow the action. I wish I would have taken photos but I was so excited to watch it slipped my mind.

Another thing, Hogan was the best receiver on the field today. He really impressed me with his ball tracking skills and the ability to come down with the catch in tight coverage.

O'shaughnessy also made a great catch where he climbed over a defenders back on the left hash mark for about a 20 yard gain.

 

[Wheelman]

@Tony2046 Didn't I tell you to have faith?

 

[Wheelman]

As always, a dumb response. None of those players listed come close to meeting the minimum criteria for inclusion in the ratings and you know it. Writing things with (over)confidence and arrogance does not make what you write correct. You have proven that time and time again on this site.

Here is another list for you. Seems like Hogan is in pretty good company.

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Yards Per Catch

We will all be waiting anxiously for your brilliant and insightful definition of a deep threat. And "I know one when I see it" doesn't count. I assume that you are done eating your mother's meatloaf by now.

If Gronk didn't get injured, They would have been 1 and 2 on that list. Gronk was doing 20+ average I think.

 

[long distance]

I hear these are the Joint experts hired to help Rivers improve his Joints.
https://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/attachments/maxresdefault-jpg.17766/

it was about Wise . but i guess this is universal enough method..

 

[Deus Irae]

As always, a dumb response. None of those players listed come close to meeting the minimum criteria for inclusion in the ratings and you know it. Writing things with (over)confidence and arrogance does not make what you write correct. You have proven that time and time again on this site.

Actually, you're helping to make my point. You've conceded that it's not straight YPC.

Here is another list for you. Seems like Hogan is in pretty good company.

NFL Football Player Stats & Stats Leaders - Yards Per Catch

We will all be waiting anxiously for your brilliant and insightful definition of a deep threat. And "I know one when I see it" doesn't count. I assume that you are done eating your mother's meatloaf by now.

Your insults are pathetic, much like your earlier attempt to try equating YPC as a 1:1 determinative of deep threat quality.

As for your list, take a gander at the two Falcons. Unless you're going to claim that Jones and Gabriel are equal deep threats, your own list proves the folly of your position. And, if you're going to claim that Jones and Gabriel are equal deep threats, you're insane, which proves the folly of, well, you.

Your own list sets up, in effect, a lose/lose for Patsgofor4. Quel dommage!


And remember, the next time you're crying about what a meanie you think I am, that you started this back and forth, and you went negative in your very first post.

 

[Deus Irae]

@Deus Irae - This seems closer to the truth.


So this is the top 20 WR's sorted by 20+ yard receptions in 2016:

Note: Hogan ranked 32nd. Julian Ranked: 35th.
View attachment 17768

Yeah, there's no question that Hogan had a good year, and that he was a major help in attacking the deep part of the field. It should be fun to watch the trio of Gronk/Cooks/Hogan forcing coverage shifts on middle deep routes. If this team's O-line can hold up, and the skill players can avoid injury, we should see a whole lot of fireworks this season.

 

[maineman209]

I would LOVE to have Bates & his athleticism be part of our LB group, but I didn't notice him making any plays vs the JAGs on Thursday. Maybe I've missed and/or forgotten some of them?

I think Bates joined the LB rotation late in the 3rd Q and through the 4th. Of course, by that point in broadcast, Fauria and his buddy were so deep into ****-measuring that they'd completely forgotten that a game was in progress.

Bates did make a couple of plays that stood out to me, but mostly for the calm, authoritative way that he made them - solid tackling form with good positioning, shed blocks efficiently for the most part, picked his way through traffic with relative ease. No panic or indecisiveness that I saw. Just gave me the sense that I was watching a confident, regular rotational LB playing among rookies and scrubs.

From media reports, it sounds like he was practicing with the defensive #1s against the Texans on Wednesday at least part of the time, so we may get a chance to see him earlier in the game Saturday and evaluate his performance with and against higher-level players. I especially want to see how he does in coverage against RBs, since it sounds like neither Roberts nor Harris have been doing so well in that aspect.

Anyway, I'm not saying that he's the greatest thing since sliced bread or that he'll make the 53 - just that he seemed to have some genuine potential. To quote BB, "We'll see how that goes."

 

[Mike the Brit]

I think Bates joined the LB rotation late in the 3rd Q and through the 4th. Of course, by that point in broadcast, Fauria and his buddy were so deep into ****-measuring that they'd completely forgotten that a game was in progress.

Yeah that!

I was actually going to compliment Fauria for watching the game and making some useful observations instead of playing frat-boy bully, but then he went and ruined it. I guess three hours is a long time for someone with a mental age of 12 to have to concentrate.

 

[maineman209]

Curious Deus, how would you measure a deep threat?

I ask because I'm not sure myself.

That's a good question, and I don't think that YPC alone answers it because YPC doesn't say anything about average depth of target, which is not a commonly recorded stat.

You can kind of get a "shadow number" for average depth of target by calculating average depth of catch - subtract a player's YAC from his total receiving yards and then divide by his receptions. But that still says nothing about how deep he was on the passes that he didn't catch. You can maybe get a feel for that by comparing his catch rate - IF you assume that, in most cases, longer throws typically generate a significantly lower completion percentage than shorter ones.

For example, Player A and Player B both have 19 YPC, roughly the same total receiving yards and the same number of TD receptions.

Player A: 35% of his total receiving yards are YAC and his catch rate is 67%.
Player B: 15% of his total receiving yards are YAC and his catch rate is 62%.

So, you might guess that player A is making a lot of his receptions in the short to intermediate range between the LBs and the secondary, and that Player B is making a lot of his receptions in deeper coverage. But that's still just an extrapolation, and a fairly murky one at that.

Of course, even that doesn't resolve the issue. Is a guy who catches a 12 yard pass and takes it 50 yards to the house the "deep threat"? Or is it the guy who catches a 50 yard pass and takes it into the EZ from 12 yards out the "deep threat"? Or are they both?

 

[luuked]

That's a good question, and I don't think that YPC alone answers it because YPC doesn't say anything about average depth of target, which is not a commonly recorded stat.

You can kind of get a "shadow number" for average depth of target by calculating average depth of catch - subtract a player's YAC from his total receiving yards and then divide by his receptions. But that still says nothing about how deep he was on the passes that he didn't catch. You can maybe get a feel for that by comparing his catch rate - IF you assume that, in most cases, longer throws typically generate a significantly lower completion percentage than shorter ones.

For example, Player A and Player B both have 19 YPC, roughly the same total receiving yards and the same number of TD receptions.

Player A: 35% of his total receiving yards are YAC and his catch rate is 67%.
Player B: 15% of his total receiving yards are YAC and his catch rate is 62%.

So, you might guess that player A is making a lot of his receptions in the short to intermediate range between the LBs and the secondary, and that Player B is making a lot of his receptions in deeper coverage. But that's still just an extrapolation, and a fairly murky one at that.

Of course, even that doesn't resolve the issue. Is a guy who catches a 12 yard pass and takes it 50 yards to the house the "deep threat"? Or is it the guy who catches a 50 yard pass and takes it into the EZ from 12 yards out the "deep threat"? Or are they both?

It just goes to show once again that you can't express value in football with trivial metrics like YAC.

At best Hogan is a bubble Tier 2/Tier 3 WR that can become completely useless or very deadly when used in the correct role against the right opponent. He isn't someone you specifically gameplan against but someone who is used as a weapon in your own gameplans against certain schemes/matchups.. And I am happy that we have him on our team.

 

[maineman209]

It just goes to show once again that you can't express value in football with trivial metrics like YAC.

At best Hogan is a bubble Tier 2/Tier 3 WR that can become completely useless or very deadly when used in the correct role against the right opponent. He isn't someone you specifically gameplan against but someone who is used as a weapon in your own gameplans against certain schemes/matchups.. And I am happy that we have him on our team.

Acknowledging that I'm splitting hairs, but I wouldn't say that YAC is "trivial", just that it's incomplete used out of context.

Anyway, the actually important thing to me about your post is that Hogan demonstrates that the tier-2/tier-3, situational/role players on the Pats are generally superior to the analogous players on other teams. Hogan is an example of the depth of quality on the Pats roster, and of the quality of BB's work in building it.

 

[Tony2046]

@Deus Irae @maineman209 @luuked

Using statistics only gets you in the ballpark but it's clear that Hogan isn't a top 5 deep threat but I don't think he's the 30th either. Other nonnumerical factors come into play such as offensive scheme, losing targets to other receiving threats etc...

With Deus's suggestion I sorted the receivers by most 20+ receptions.

I then created two charts. By 20+ yard plays and 20+ 40 yard plays. I think 20+40 gives a decent list to start a subjective debate with.

FTR, I like the 20+40 chart for one crucial and unarguable reason. Cooks and Hogan are ranked higher.

Thanks for the input.

Hogan is ranked 30th. Cooks ranked 17th


This is sorted by the combined 20+40 yard receptions.

Hogan ranked 23rd. Cooks ranked 12th.

 

[DaBruinz]

I think it's funny that @Deus Irae starts and argument about what a Deep Threat is and still hasn't actually defined it despite being asked by several people.. But that is Deus.. He can't be bothered once he thinks he's got a "win".