Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game thread - 2025 AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

Guts said:

It would be hilarious if we go to Mile High and win then play the Rams with their MVP QB and win with a 2nd year Drake Maye having a GW field goal drive to end the game...

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And then they'll say, in retrospect, how the Pats were inevitable...

I got real tired of hearing "But ohhhh that Chargers defense is sooooooooo hard to move the ball against" and then "Ohhhhhh but that Houston defense is the best in the leaaaague" and seeing graphics all day about "oh noeees that Houston defense" while we hung 28 on them (granted, with a LOT of involvement & 1 TD by "that Patriots defense," which nobody talks about.)

When healthy, the Pats D is the best in the league, period, especially measuring the postseason... and we've gotten pretty damn healthy again. Yes. Drake F'ing Maye was pretty decent when it came down to it Sunday, with 3 TDs and 1 INT playing in what can only be described as a vertical slurpee which neither team survived looking pristine.

And I have been SO proud all year of how this team survived the trap games... but... and here's the main thing...

my brain is flashing "TRAP TRAP TRAP" brightly enough to give me a proper seizure.

It's just another game and just another qb, one where we know their QB as well as anybody, but nobody actually knows him, because we haven't seen enough of him, & we haven't seen him in this situation.

Also, it's Denver, our in-conference version of the NY Gintz...

There's just a lot to cross fingers over, but intangible voodoo stuff, not "Oh noeees how will we win" stuff.

This Patriots D is capable of pitching a shutout or close to it, and more than that, they understand how important it is for them to dominate, if these last 2 games are anything to go by.

Here's to the right adjustments and the right preparation happening right now so the right outcome happens this Sunday... can't wait!

BACK TO THE SB

denverpatsfan said:

There were plays where Stroud had all day. Hoping this doesn't happen on Sunday

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They pressured him 34 times on 50 dropbacks (68%). If your expectation is they should pressure the QB 100% on the time then you need to readjust it.

JMC00 said:

They pressured him 34 times on 50 dropbacks (68%). If your expectation is they should pressure the QB 100% on the time then you need to readjust it.

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34/50 68% pressure rate is insane. HOU may as well have been playing with turnstiles on their OL

Been off the boards since Friday and so my first post since we won that ugly game is about the Donkey forums. Looking at their 10+ page thread is kind of surprising. My take is they think Stidham is not much of a drop off from Nix other than some scrambling which is interesting. They also think they are better on the line on both sides of the ball and feel they can easily run on us. They dont think we have a very good wr group and should be able to shut us down in the air. They think that our TE and RB are average at best. They think we will have multiple turnovers to their defense. They think their defense is a step up from the Texans (wtf?). They don't think we belong and they are going to the SB. Little to nothing said about the Pats seem to concern them. I guess we should not even go to Denver and just concede now. I have found a new fanbase to dislike.

Actual Pats Fan said:

Bad times.

Tom Jackson's mauling of Steve Grogan n 11/11/79, an eternity after the ball had already been stripped loose would be more than enough grounds for assault if it didn't happen on a football field, and even then a personal foul should have been called.

Mosi Tatupu's uncharacteristic late fumble on 11/4/84 took a win away for new coach Raymond Berry and kept them out of the playoffs.

A series of miserable losses including the playoff on 1/4/87 involved suicidally starting Tony Eason over Steve Grogan and Doug Flutie.

I will chronicle the misery this century in a subsequent post.

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Tom Jackson, Grade A *******.

Actual Pats Fan said:

Bad times.

Tom Jackson's mauling of Steve Grogan n 11/11/79, an eternity after the ball had already been stripped loose would be more than enough grounds for assault if it didn't happen on a football field, and even then a personal foul should have been called.

Mosi Tatupu's uncharacteristic late fumble on 11/4/84 took a win away for new coach Raymond Berry and kept them out of the playoffs.

A series of miserable losses including the playoff on 1/4/87 involved suicidally starting Tony Eason over Steve Grogan and Doug Flutie.

I will chronicle the misery this century in a subsequent post.

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Doug Flutie wasn’t on the team 1/4/87
Eason had started every game he was healthy for that year and actually had a good season.

Guts said:

It would be hilarious if we go to Mile High and win then play the Rams with their MVP QB and win with a 2nd year Drake Maye having a GW field goal drive to end the game...

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Puka Nacua: "Tonight, a dynasty is born."

Betterthanmost said:

Is Denver down to their third center? I feel this will be a key factor in the game.

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They might not have their WR2 which was coming along nicely for them. Hes an underrated loss if he cant go

@JuicePickm: How do you feel about the Broncos defense in comparison to the Chargers and Texans?
Here’s a quick breakdown, based on expected points added (EPA):

EPA per play: Texans first, Broncos eighth, Chargers ninth

EPA per pass: Texans first, Broncos ninth, Chargers 11th

EPA per rush: Texans fourth, Chargers fifth, Broncos ninth

So, they’re right up there, and probably realistically somewhere between the Texans and Chargers. They’re slightly more susceptible against the run than the Texans and Chargers.

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DoubleDeluxe said:

Tom Jackson, Grade A *******.

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Not absolving him, but he wasn't reprimanded to my knowledge for what he did to Steve.

Belichick, however, when he visited the BSPN studio a year or two later, said Hi to Chris Berman, but when TJ said "Hey Bill, how ya doing?" Bill responded, "**** you, Tom."

Patsfan1645 said:

Been off the boards since Friday and so my first post since we won that ugly game is about the Donkey forums. Looking at their 10+ page thread is kind of surprising. My take is they think Stidham is not much of a drop off from Nix other than some scrambling which is interesting. They also think they are better on the line on both sides of the ball and feel they can easily run on us. They dont think we have a very good wr group and should be able to shut us down in the air. They think that our TE and RB are average at best. They think we will have multiple turnovers to their defense. They think their defense is a step up from the Texans (wtf?). They don't think we belong and they are going to the SB. Little to nothing said about the Pats seem to concern them. I guess we should not even go to Denver and just concede now. I have found a new fanbase to dislike.

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love it - i'd argue we have the best RB & TE left playing, our WR group is better than theirs top to bottom, and healthier......our interior DL is the best still playing

their defense has feasted on their schedule, but gave up points to every decent offense they've seen........

i agree on the Nix/Stidham piece - it comes to mobility and toughness under fire (advantage Nix) and the deep ball (advantage Stidham)

i'd argue right now our D is better than theirs as a unit, TBH

Actual Pats Fan said:

Not absolving him, but he wasn't reprimanded to my knowledge for what he did to Steve.

Belichick, however, when he visited the BSPN studio a year or two later, said Hi to Chris Berman, but when TJ said "Hey Bill, how ya doing?" Bill responded, "**** you, Tom."

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Yup.
I wasn’t referring to his on field play.
Years ago 2 of my friends who are SF fans, went to the HOF game 9ers/Pats. They were there a couple of days before, went to the practices. They said every one was super friendly, ****erson, Walsh, Pats players (they got me a Scooter McGruder signature, haha). Jackson was an ******* to every one. Wouldn’t even look people in the eye and basically told my buddies to **** off. **** him.

oh, and they've always been a pretty ****ty, uber annoying fanbase, all the way back to the orange crush days

Uptown said:

Great because Denver’s OL weakness is in the interior. Our DL strength is in the interior…


Game. Set. Match..

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Williams is going to be an all time Patriot by the time he's done. He's never leaving here. The Eagles were fools to let him go.

We are so improved since the last time they saw us:
- Head coach w/o a herpes sore on lip
- No bad blood with franchise QB
- Higher QB accuracy
- Not 1 but 2 RBs who you might scratch your head about and say "How did that guy steal the show?"
- Back to the days when any receiver can be the "Hold on, who caught for 90 and 2 TDs" guy
- No endless BS about who the heir apparent is, was it BB or Brady, can we afford this roster, etc.

And my favorite...
- A sneaky good attacking D that isn't happy unless it scores more than your offense.

Fingers crossed, but looking at Denver to be the next in a series of teams standing there w their ****s in their hands saying "Oh no, turns out they're good after all."

My favorite word lately is "overrated."

PatsFanInVa said:

And then they'll say, in retrospect, how the Pats were inevitable...

I got real tired of hearing "But ohhhh that Chargers defense is sooooooooo hard to move the ball against" and then "Ohhhhhh but that Houston defense is the best in the leaaaague" and seeing graphics all day about "oh noeees that Houston defense" while we hung 28 on them (granted, with a LOT of involvement & 1 TD by "that Patriots defense," which nobody talks about.)

When healthy, the Pats D is the best in the league, period, especially measuring the postseason... and we've gotten pretty damn healthy again. Yes. Drake F'ing Maye was pretty decent when it came down to it Sunday, with 3 TDs and 1 INT playing in what can only be described as a vertical slurpee which neither team survived looking pristine.

And I have been SO proud all year of how this team survived the trap games... but... and here's the main thing...

my brain is flashing "TRAP TRAP TRAP" brightly enough to give me a proper seizure.

It's just another game and just another qb, one where we know their QB as well as anybody, but nobody actually knows him, because we haven't seen enough of him, & we haven't seen him in this situation.

Also, it's Denver, our in-conference version of the NY Gintz...

There's just a lot to cross fingers over, but intangible voodoo stuff, not "Oh noeees how will we win" stuff.

This Patriots D is capable of pitching a shutout or close to it, and more than that, they understand how important it is for them to dominate, if these last 2 games are anything to go by.

Here's to the right adjustments and the right preparation happening right now so the right outcome happens this Sunday... can't wait!

BACK TO THE SB

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The Pats didn't have the best D in the league this year. They had a very good D that was often inconsistent. But you could see when they got all their horses in a row and were clicking they were clearly top 5. Now they have everyone back and we are not seeing hiccups or slow starts or bad halves/quarters.

Clearly there is top 5 talent on this D. The questions about if Williams is worth the money has been answered. He is worth every penny. Possibly more. He is such a leader and when he is in the game the pass rush changes from below average to very good quickly.

The only sad thing is the Landry signing. Imagine this D if he was healthy. If that was the case then maybe they would be the clear #2 D in the league. But no one was better than Houston this year. That D was the best the league has seen in 10 years. As far as I know we beat them totally healthy. They carried a very subpar offense and STs to divisional round on the back of a 10 game streak. That unit was dynamite. We aren't them. But could this unit be the 2nd best? Maybe. A lot of Ds could be.

I will not judge a D by only the regular season stats. Look at the 2006 Colts. If you look at the regular season numbers they were average. But they got healthy at the right time and played up to their level in that run. Same for that 2007 Giants D... though that was mostly the front 7. But the back 4 wasn't as bad as people remember.

So I will judge this Pats D off where they are right now. And right now... Arguably #2... Along with LAC, DEN, SEA, PHI and MINN. Any of them could claim to be #2 and have a case. Personally I am don't care much as long as they belong in that conversation, which they CLEARLY do,

The key for the Pats this post season has been balance. They are really good in all 3 phases. Jones is always a threat to switch field on a big punt return. Our Kicker while not always as reliable as you want is reliable enough and has a fantastic leg on him... making it possible to score from the 40 if you get there. The offense has some issues but we have seen they can score points on any level of D. They have been tested by the best the league has to offer and while they have made mistakes NO ONE has such them down.

They have not been held to single digits all year. Their lowest point totals are week 1 (13) week 3 (14. the 5 turnover game with multiple turnovers at the goal line) and vs LAC with 16.

They have been held down exactly one time all game without week 1 as an excuse or throwing up on themselves at the goal line. But they still got 16... and probably could have gone more if they needed it as they kind of were happy to kill clock over scoring in their final 2 drives.

Any team who tries to beat that isn't also balance will find that rather difficult. And right now the Broncos are not balanced.

Ring 6 said:

Doug Flutie wasn’t on the team 1/4/87

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"A series of miserable losses", including on 12/17/88 when the Patriots were eliminated, Berry benching Flutie (the single major reason they were competitive at all that year, as Grogan was in '85), Eason put in as starter the prior week against the Bucs having thrown the same number of passes in a live game as Jarrett Stidham has for over a year.

Ring 6 said:

Eason had started every game he was healthy for that year and actually had a good season.

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Tony did play his heart out, and he could throw a football, but as they did in the playoffs the previous season, the team carried him to a seven game win streak, despite being incapable of running the ball after John Hannah's retirement and Craig James' shoulder injury.

Grogan started against the Jets here on October 12, the Jets winning despite Grogan's 401 yards passing and 3 TD's.

Grogan again threw for three touchdowns starting a week later in Pittsburgh as they shut out the Steelers.

But Steve's biggest contribution was in the Orange Bowl on December 22nd. After predictably losing to the Bengals and 49ers at home the previous two weeks with Eason starting, the Patriots faced elimination on Monday night. Thankfully, Eason hurt himself trying to make a tackle and Grogan led them back from behind to win the game, and the AFC East Division.

I believe the outcomes of those elimination games at Denver, along with lots of others, would have been different with Grogan (and Flutie in '88) starting.

bormio said:

We need to be aggressive at the start of the game - we need to start fast. We do not want Stidham and Denver to settle into the game. We want Stidham to feel the pressure to keep up from the get go. Make him uncomfortable right away.

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Although, many times the Patriots have lulled their opponent into a false sense of security early in games this season. Either way, it's important that the Pats are a good second half team (Bills game was an outlier).

That said, I'm not against resting our starters again during garbage time in the 4th quarter, a very long Super Bowl return celebration. But there's still one more game to go, and we all must stay frosty and alert for it.

buffalo bills - #3 in total EPA offensively - hung 30 on this D
jacksonville - #12 - 34points
green bay - #4 - 26 points
washington - #18 - 26 points
dallas - #5 - 24 points
giants - #17 - 32 points
indianapolis - #9 - 29 points

those are the teams that hung 20 or more on them

philly at #16 is the only team in the top half of total offensive EPA that they held under 20 (17 points) as well as KC (19 points) the first time with mahomes

every other opponent was down near the bottom

vs the top 7 teams in total offensive EPA - 20 sacks in 7 games (including the bills game) - 2.8 sacks per game.......vs the remaining 17 - 53 sacks, or 4.8 sacks per game

the defense is good - but they made their hay against the weaker teams, and the the top teams all hung 20+ on them - and the two teams in the top half they held under 20 were flawed offensively (one didn't make the playoffs, the other was one and done)