Patriots Pregame Thread Pre-Game thread - 2025 AFC Championship at Denver Broncos

[jimnance]

I told my son in the beginning of September (I think it was 07) that if the Rockies got to the World Series, we'd get tickets and make a road trip out (we're in the Salt Lake City area, but my family all still lives in Denver). I think they had won two out of the last three, and were 7 or 8 games back - so it was pretty much tongue-in-cheek. Well, the Rockies almost never lost another game. They snuck into a game 163 tiebreaker game with the Padres, won that, and then swept their way to the World Series.

I paid an obscene amount for tickets to game five. But I thought, "You know, if they somehow stay this hot, it would suck to have tickets to game five and watch them sweep." So, I picked up tickets to game four, and you bastards swept us. We sat right behind home plate as Papelbon (who I hated with the fire of a thousand suns) struck out Seth Smith, and the Red Sox celebrated.

I think we win that series if you guys didn't take so long the win the ALCS. We ended up having something like thirteen days between game 4 of the NLCS and game 1 of the World Series. And we just lost the magic - a totally different team. Bad times, man.

Seemed like good times to me

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

No Hollins according to Vrabs live press conference

 

[PatsFanInVa]

The Pats didn't have the best D in the league this year. They had a very good D that was often inconsistent. But you could see when they got all their horses in a row and were clicking they were clearly top 5. Now they have everyone back and we are not seeing hiccups or slow starts or bad halves/quarters.

Clearly there is top 5 talent on this D. The questions about if Williams is worth the money has been answered. He is worth every penny. Possibly more. He is such a leader and when he is in the game the pass rush changes from below average to very good quickly.

The only sad thing is the Landry signing. Imagine this D if he was healthy. If that was the case then maybe they would be the clear #2 D in the league. But no one was better than Houston this year. That D was the best the league has seen in 10 years. As far as I know we beat them totally healthy. They carried a very subpar offense and STs to divisional round on the back of a 10 game streak. That unit was dynamite. We aren't them. But could this unit be the 2nd best? Maybe. A lot of Ds could be.

I will not judge a D by only the regular season stats. Look at the 2006 Colts. If you look at the regular season numbers they were average. But they got healthy at the right time and played up to their level in that run. Same for that 2007 Giants D... though that was mostly the front 7. But the back 4 wasn't as bad as people remember.

So I will judge this Pats D off where they are right now. And right now... Arguably #2... Along with LAC, DEN, SEA, PHI and MINN. Any of them could claim to be #2 and have a case. Personally I am don't care much as long as they belong in that conversation, which they CLEARLY do,

The key for the Pats this post season has been balance. They are really good in all 3 phases. Jones is always a threat to switch field on a big punt return. Our Kicker while not always as reliable as you want is reliable enough and has a fantastic leg on him... making it possible to score from the 40 if you get there. The offense has some issues but we have seen they can score points on any level of D. They have been tested by the best the league has to offer and while they have made mistakes NO ONE has such them down.

They have not been held to single digits all year. Their lowest point totals are week 1 (13) week 3 (14. the 5 turnover game with multiple turnovers at the goal line) and vs LAC with 16.

They have been held down exactly one time all game without week 1 as an excuse or throwing up on themselves at the goal line. But they still got 16... and probably could have gone more if they needed it as they kind of were happy to kill clock over scoring in their final 2 drives.

Any team who tries to beat that isn't also balance will find that rather difficult. And right now the Broncos are not balanced.

Did ya watch them give up 3 TD Sunday?

Houston’s D musta played an easy schedule. They hadn’t faced Drake Maye.

 

[Ring 6]

I was at the Texas game on Sunday. It was a great performance by the Patriots defense. They have come on since Williams, Spillane and Landry have all returned to the starting lineup. The defense that the ability to shut downs Denvers running game and force them to pass with a backup QB in Stidham. The doesn’t guarantee them a victory but it goes give them a strong chance to win on Sunday.

On offense they need to take care of the football better. I think the last 2 weeks Maye has been trying to do too much with the ball when there is no a play to be made. Drake needs to the throw the ball away when there is not a play there that can be successful . He need to take a sack and live to fight for another play. Maye also, make some great throws to beat the Texans. We can’t forget that or minimize that all. He did throw 3 touchdown passes and make plays when they were needed that helped them win the game.

I think they can and will win on Sunday. This team has shown that they can win in different ways.

It’s not really reasonable to say change Maye to a conservative qb who flops to the ground at the first sign of pressure, but also expect him to make the plays he makes under pressure.
You can’t fault a qb when an OL gets beat and a pass rusher smacks the ball out of his hand when his arm is ****ed to throw.

The fumble on the qb draw was careless, but the others were because of the pass rush, not the Qb.
He is the top rate qb in the NFL under pressure. You have to accept that pressure also causes sacks and fumbles. The good he does far outweighs the downside of the consequence of poor blocking.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Williams is going to be an all time Patriot by the time he's done. He's never leaving here. The Eagles were fools to let him go.

Here’s a thought exercise— who had been the most successful “big ticket” external free agent signing the team has ever made? I want to emphasize the “big ticket” aspect - meaning signing a big name guy at the top of his game for big money. Not talking about Rodney Harrison (who might be their best external FA signing ever) who was considered past his prime, or Mike Vrabel (another contender for that) who was viewed as a role player who turned himself into an All-Pro later.

Thinking the candidates might be something like:
- Rosevelt Colvin
- Adalius Thomas
- Darrell Revis
- Stephon Gilmore
- Matthew Judon
- Milton Williams

I’m sure there are others. Williams is making a case for being near or at the top of the list.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Here’s a thought exercise— who had been the most successful “big ticket” external free agent signing the team has ever made? I want to emphasize the “big ticket” aspect - meaning signing a big name guy at the top of his game for big money. Not talking about Rodney Harrison (who might be their best external FA signing ever) who was considered past his prime, or Mike Vrabel (another contender for that) who was viewed as a role player who turned himself into an All-Pro later.

Thinking the candidates might be something like:
- Rosevelt Colvin
- Adalius Thomas
- Darrell Revis
- Stephon Gilmore
- Matthew Judon
- Milton Williams

I’m sure there are others. Williams is making a case for being near or at the top of the list.

Gilly and Revis are automatically at the top of the list since we won SBs with them, and Gilly was DPOY.
Revis was a short term mercenary, but still, SB is what it’s all about.

 

[mike_usagisan]

No Hollins according to Vrabs live press conference

I think the abdomen injury was a lot more serious than anyone let on, but I have nothing to base that on.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Gilly and Revis are automatically at the top of the list since we won SBs with them, and Gilly was DPOY.
Revis was a short term mercenary, but still, SB is what it’s all about.

I'm hoping it will be Milt.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I think the abdomen injury was a lot more serious than anyone let on, but I have nothing to base that on.

Did we ever get details of what exactly is wrong with him?

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

I'm hoping it will be Milt.

I will move him to the top if we can win a SB with him

 

[mike_usagisan]

The thing I learned today:

 

[mike_usagisan]

Did we ever get details of what exactly is wrong with him?

No. They've been very quiet about it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Here’s a thought exercise— who had been the most successful “big ticket” external free agent signing the team has ever made? I want to emphasize the “big ticket” aspect - meaning signing a big name guy at the top of his game for big money. Not talking about Rodney Harrison (who might be their best external FA signing ever) who was considered past his prime, or Mike Vrabel (another contender for that) who was viewed as a role player who turned himself into an All-Pro later.

Thinking the candidates might be something like:
- Rosevelt Colvin
- Adalius Thomas
- Darrell Revis
- Stephon Gilmore
- Matthew Judon
- Milton Williams

I’m sure there are others. Williams is making a case for being near or at the top of the list.

Gilmore #1 because they went to two SBs, won one, won DPOY

Judon #2. He produced until he got hurt and old.

Colvin and AD had decent seasons but IMO did not live up to the money as they got injured. Loved Rosie though.

Revis was a great 1 year deal.

Milty is TBD but good so far.

 

[jal]

buffalo bills - #3 in total EPA offensively - hung 30 on this D
jacksonville - #12 - 34points
green bay - #4 - 26 points
washington - #18 - 26 points
dallas - #5 - 24 points
giants - #17 - 32 points
indianapolis - #9 - 29 points

those are the teams that hung 20 or more on them

philly at #16 is the only team in the top half of total offensive EPA that they held under 20 (17 points) as well as KC (19 points) the first time with mahomes

every other opponent was down near the bottom

vs the top 7 teams in total offensive EPA - 20 sacks in 7 games (including the bills game) - 2.8 sacks per game.......vs the remaining 17 - 53 sacks, or 4.8 sacks per game

the defense is good - but they made their hay against the weaker teams, and the the top teams all hung 20+ on them - and the two teams in the top half they held under 20 were flawed offensively (one didn't make the playoffs, the other was one and done)

They have a very good and diverse pass rush and a lockdown #1 corner. But their other corners, safeties, and linebackers CAN be had if you can read it out quickly. Unlike the Texans the Broncos do a lot more schematically to mix it up so Maye will have to identify things quickly. Broncos have a good run defense but it's not all-world (see what Buffalo did to them last week, albeit with perhaps the best running game in the NFL).

I have confidence we can score 20+ points. BUT the key is doing so while minimizing really damaging turnovers. We need a CLEAN 20+ pts from the offense. If we can do that, we will win. And if we can do that earlier on and put the pressure on the Broncos offense to really have to drop back in obvious passing situations frequently, then we can probably run away with this by forcing them into mistakes.

Drake Maye has to keep it clean this week. 2 reads and then tuck it and scramble against a D that plays Man coverage more than anyone. We should support him with big jumbo sets, play action on early downs when the Broncos are going to play a simpler defense, and a balanced overall gameplan (50/50 run/pass is ideal here). I believe he can do it - this defense is very good but not the caliber of the Texans, and from a pass defense perspective not quite as good as the Chargers either.

 

[p8ryts]

I am old enough to remember the AFCCG in 1986 when the Pats went to their own house of horrors in Miami where they hadn't won since 1966 (18 if a row I think) and came away with the victory, exorcised the demons and got a date with the 85 Bears,,,
Here's hoping that this version of the Patriots can settle all scores and win in Denver to rid those demons....

one of my favorite games. I loved that running attack.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I'm hoping it will be Milt.

He can be this year's Lagarette Blount or Chris Long, a guy who wins a Super Bowl , leaves in free agency and wins another Super Bowl the next year with the new team... reversing those guys who went NE to PHilly while he went Philly to NE>

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

He can be this year's Lagarette Blount or Chris Long, a guy who wins a Super Bowl , leaves in free agency and wins another Super Bowl the next year with the new team... reversing those guys who went NE to PHilly while he went Philly to NE>

Yes please!

 

[jal]

So there are/were teams with higher top end talent on offense, but is there a team in the league that had as many big-play opportunity players as the Patriots?

None of them jump off the page at you stats-wise, but when you watch them it's a case of:

Williams is faster than most, and even a broken clock can be right twice, potentially for two TD's

Henry is a big vet, can be a chain mover, can be a RZ target, WILL catch a crucial 1st down.

Diggs is Diggs, just in an offense with less volume. Incredible technique and hands.

Boutte will find his spot 15-20 yards deeps, seemingly always running left to right at the top of his route, camps very well in the zone. Can suddenly jump for a one handed reel-in.

Henderson can be quiet for weeks then rip off a 50 yard run/TD if you forget how agile he is. When he's quiet, Stevenson is running harder than he has all year, earning tough yards. Both also picking up blitz, both receiving threats, with Stevenson running some wild routes for an RB it feels like.

Hollins, when in, is a big boy, tall and can pull down a high throw from Maye, can randomly have a game of 100+ yards.

Maye can be Big Play Maye on any given day. Whether a masterful deep pass (Boutte one handed, Diggs lazer) or a scramble for 10-15.

Josh does a great job at operating a surplus of viable weapons across all positions. I feel like he rarely had an offense that wasn't simply receiver heavy with a GOAT TE, except the 2015 offense which uniquely had not just viable, but scary weapons at RB (Lewis, Blount, White is stupid LMAO), WR, and TE. And that was one of the cleanest operating offenses I've seen when healthy. I'm glad we snagged Josh for this crew.

If you're the Broncos, what's your game plan here? Attacking Maye's left, stop the run, don't let Maye run, but then also always be aware of the big play. It's a lot to cover there.

If you're the Broncos the key will be stopping the run and forcing the Patriots into obvious passing situations. Then in those situations you will have to spin the dial coverage-wise to force Maye to not trust his eyes and then let your elite pass rush go to work, then hopefully get some fumbles/TOs out of it. That's their game plan. If they don't stop the run, then the elite pass rush doesn't get to come into play very often. If they don't confuse Maye coverage-wise, then the Patriots will pick on everyone not named Patrick Surtain in coverage. What the Broncos really have no answer for is if Maye scrambles against man coverage. They can't afford to spy him frequently because their non-Surtain corners/safeties/linebackers are just average at best in coverage. Their best bet is to disguise well and make him think so he isn't decisive even if he does scramble.

I can see them having some success in this in the first half, but usually Maye and McDaniels figure it out by halftime. We can afford to give them that time usually, as long as we aren't turning it over as our D will keep us in the game. Ideally we figure it out faster and thus force the Broncos into obvious dropback situations for more of the game, but we can't count on that. Vance Joseph is a good D coordinator and he'll have something novel dialed up for this game. We will just have to be patient until we can diagnose it.

 

[DoubleDeluxe]

Bulletin board material.
Eff you Pete!

Prisco's NFL Championship Sunday picks: Who will punch their Super Bowl ticket?

Pete Prisco reveals all of his NFL Championship Sunday picks.

www.cbssports.com

 

[TommyD4207]

Are the Denver Broncos NOT everyone's most hated team in New England?

Been watching since the mid-70s, and they are by far the team I hate the most.

Broncos > Dolphins > Colts > Ravens > Jets > Bills > Steelers > Chargers > Raiders

It will always be the Dolphins at the top of that list for me.