And Surely We Need To Be Better Than 6th In Points Scored To Be Competitive

[Deus Irae]

If you do that for the Pats then you have to go through every team and do the same exercise and then see where they stack up, other teams played some of those games too. They also played some of the weak teams in years past when looking at past numbers.

As I noted

Now, those games I just noted do count in the standings, the scores really happened, and other teams also have outliers skewing their numbers, but that's not really the issue moving forward.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I don't know that the following is what mgteich is referring to, but both points scored and scoring differential are wildly skewed.

54-13 in one of the games against the high school team known as the Jets.
50-10 against the middle school team known as the Jaguars
45-7 against a depleted Browns team that was still dealing with the aftermath of the OBJ drama.

That's 149-30 over just 3 games. If you take those away, the team's numbers end up as 313-273. Hell, if you take away the second Jets game and the game against the completely depleted Titans, the Patriots end up being outscored. Now, those games I just noted do count in the standings, the scores really happened, and other teams also have outliers skewing their numbers, but that's not really the issue moving forward. The issue is repeatability of such scoring, and such a differential, for the Patriots gong forward. The issue is also the ability to be score more points more consistently, rather than having scoring explosions once in a while.

For once I agree. The Patriots scoring numbers were inflated by beating up on bad teams. Against the good teams, both the offense and the defense were found lacking. Don't be fooled by the numbers, this team needs another overhaul to get to the next level of actually being competitive against playoff caliber teams.

Yes making the playoffs is a step forward, but becoming contenders, that's a totally different story. And we're far from that as evidenced by our huge losses against Buffalo.

 

[ivanvamp]

I don't know that the following is what mgteich is referring to, but both points scored and scoring differential are wildly skewed.

54-13 in one of the games against the high school team known as the Jets.
50-10 against the middle school team known as the Jaguars
45-7 against a depleted Browns team that was still dealing with the aftermath of the OBJ drama.

That's 149-30 over just 3 games. If you take those away, the team's numbers end up as 313-273. Hell, if you take away the second Jets game and the game against the completely depleted Titans, the Patriots end up being outscored. Now, those games I just noted do count in the standings, the scores really happened, and other teams also have outliers skewing their numbers, but that's not really the issue moving forward. The issue is repeatability of such scoring, and such a differential, for the Patriots gong forward. The issue is also the ability to be score more points more consistently, rather than having scoring explosions once in a while.

I mean yeah, you take away the games where their offense went bonkers and you're left with not as good an offense.

You can do that exercise for most every good offensive team - their overall numbers are skewed because of a few games where they go nuts, as you yourself point out.

I do agree that I'd like to see a lot more consistency from their offense. Here was their point distribution this year (including playoffs):

40+ points - 3 games (3-0)
30-39 points - 1 game (1-0)
20-29 points - 8 games (5-3)
10-19 points - 6 games (1-5)

Let's look at Indy, who scored virtually the same number of points as NE (26.6 for NE, 26.5 for Ind).

40+ points - 2 games (2-0)
30-39 points - 5 games (3-2)
20-29 points - 7 games (4-3)
10-19 points - 3 games (0-3)

More consistent distribution. Of course, while they beat NE, they also had a worse record than the Pats, so....

Now Cincy, who also scored virtually the same number of points as NE.

40+ points - 3 games (3-0)
30-39 points - 4 games (3-1)
20-29 points - 7 games (4-3)
10-19 points - 4 games (1-3)

Basically, if the Pats got to 20 points, they were in great shape (9-3 in those games). Obviously struggled if they scored fewer than 20 points. But that's true for those other teams as well. Indy was 9-5 when scoring 20+ points, and 0-3 otherwise. Cincy was 10-4 scoring 20+ points, and 1-3 when they didn't.

 

[Deus Irae]

I mean yeah, you take away the games where their offense went bonkers and you're left with not as good an offense.

You can do that exercise for most every good offensive team - their overall numbers are skewed because of a few games where they go nuts, as you yourself point out.

I do agree that I'd like to see a lot more consistency from their offense. Here was their point distribution this year (including playoffs):

40+ points - 3 games (3-0)
30-39 points - 1 game (1-0)
20-29 points - 8 games (5-3)
10-19 points - 6 games (1-5)

Let's look at Indy, who scored virtually the same number of points as NE (26.6 for NE, 26.5 for Ind).

40+ points - 2 games (2-0)
30-39 points - 5 games (3-2)
20-29 points - 7 games (4-3)
10-19 points - 3 games (0-3)

More consistent distribution. Of course, while they beat NE, they also had a worse record than the Pats, so....

Now Cincy, who also scored virtually the same number of points as NE.

40+ points - 3 games (3-0)
30-39 points - 4 games (3-1)
20-29 points - 7 games (4-3)
10-19 points - 4 games (1-3)

Basically, if the Pats got to 20 points, they were in great shape (9-3 in those games). Obviously struggled if they scored fewer than 20 points. But that's true for those other teams as well. Indy was 9-5 when scoring 20+ points, and 0-3 otherwise. Cincy was 10-4 scoring 20+ points, and 1-3 when they didn't.

You just picked two teams that were roller coasters, in a year that was bizarre in so many ways. I'm not even sure what you're trying to argue, at this point.

And going to "20 points" doesn't really mean anything without context.

20 points + wins:

Jets
Texans
Jets
Chargers
Panthers
Browns
Falcons
Titans
Jaguars


20 points + losses

Cowboys
Bills
Dolphins


So, Every game where they scored 20+ points and won was a game against a non-playoff team, with the exception of that injury depleted Titans squad.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

"Surely We Need To Be Better Than 6th In Points Scored To Be Competitive"​

I'm confused.

Sixth best out of 32 teams is not good enough? Anything less than top five is unacceptable?

The Patriots scored 462 points. In their last four Super Bowl appearances they scored 436, 458, 441 and 468.


I'll be the first to say that the offense is in dire need of improvement. It just seems that the statistic and ranking doesn't appear to make a very good supporting case at all. There are other metrics that would make a much better supporting argument.

In terms of penalties, here is where the Patriots ranked:
- 9th in penalties per game (5.6)
- 15th in penalty yards per game (49.3)
- 20th in opponent penalties per game (5.7) [Not drawing enough penalties]
- 20th in opponent penalty yards per game (48.8)
- That last stat may not be very telling though; the worst teams in that category were the Bucs, Rams and Packers.
- Similarly the 2nd stat doesn't appear to have a lot of correlation; the top ten teams are a mix of good (Bengals, Rams, Packers, Colts) and bad (Giants, Denver, Washington, Atlanta, Seattle) teams.

The only problem about the penalties is if you look at the games the penalties were in situations where the drive got killed by them, i mean just a bad sitaution to get a penalty because this offense struggles with every long down. Or they forced us to kick a field goal instead of going into the red zone, it always seemed like the thing we can afford least in this situation was a penalty and then we got one. Jonnu smith says hi here

 

[mgteich]

It is a reasonable outcome to beat up on bad teams and break even against good teams.

 

[Rob0729]

6th in the regular season
14th.....aka.....last....................in the playoffs

They aren't last in the playoffs. They scored more points than either the Steelers (one of their TDs was a fumble recovery on defense), Eagles, or Cardinals and the same amount as the Cowboys. Not to say they were good because they clearly weren't, but your point wasn't accurate.

 

[Nunchucks]

I agree that we need to improve the offense.

1) We need to reduce penalties.

2) We need to figure out how to win even one game when the opposition scores 25 (even though the defense was near the best in not allowing points). When the opponents did score 25 points, we were perfect in regular season (0 out of 8).

The patriots defense statistics are a great example of why statistics without context are worthless.

 

[Nunchucks]

If the patriots offense and defense can limit penalties and turnovers, they would be a better team. Right now they cannot and there is no reason to believe they can fix it.

 

[chasa]

kinda hard to take it seriously when we put up over 100 combined points against the jags and jets.

 

[Pape]

Lots of room for improvement - in all three phases of the game. More than can happen in one offseason, unfortunately.

Not necessarily. Its a matter of percentages. A one or two percentage point swing on a vital stat could mean a huge swing. Convert a 3 and short? Convert a 4 and 1? Maybe that means we aren't kicking a 56 yard FG vs the bucs in a driving rain...

First step is to get back to playing smart football, where we aren't killing ourselves with stupid, preventable penalties.

 

[ivanvamp]

You just picked two teams that were roller coasters, in a year that was bizarre in so many ways. I'm not even sure what you're trying to argue, at this point.

Maybe this is a foreign concept to you, but sometimes people just have conversations with each other about things, without someone trying to make an argument. At least, most normal people do.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree that we need to improve the offense.

1) We need to reduce penalties.

2) We need to figure out how to win even one game when the opposition scores 25 (even though the defense was near the best in not allowing points). When the opponents did score 25 points, we were perfect in regular season (0 out of 8).

The offense WITH A ROOKIE QB was 6th in scoring, 2nd in % of drives scoring, 1st in red zone % after week 3.
That and the second fewest points allowed is enough to win a lot of games. This team just did not playboys best in the most important situations.
Not sure how you call a team that made the playoffs not competitive.

 

[Ring 6]

If the patriots offense and defense can limit penalties and turnovers, they would be a better team. Right now they cannot and there is no reason to believe they can fix it.

There are many years worth of reading to believe they can fix it.

 

[Jim Beankie]

6th in scoring is deceptive stat, its more like 16th

Interestingly enough, if we take away the Jets and Jaguars game (and keep the Browns game), take the average over the remaining 15 games and multiply by 17, the Pats would be 16th place.

 

[VrabelJr]

The sign of a good offense is when you can impose your will on the opposite defense and make the plays they know are coming and yet still can't stop. Stats don't matter.

 

[mgteich]

Interestingly enough, if we take away the Jets and Jaguars game (and keep the Browns game), take the average over the remaining 15 games and multiply by 17, the Pats would be 16th place.

Aah, we need a new set of statistics for teams and players (excluding their best 3 games).

 

[Deus Irae]

Maybe this is a foreign concept to you, but sometimes people just have conversations with each other about things, without someone trying to make an argument. At least, most normal people do.

Were you just posting to schmooze, or were you trying to

Give reasons or cite evidence in support of an idea, action, or theory, typically with the aim of persuading others to share one's view.

?

ARGUE English Definition and Meaning | Lexico.com

 

[Ring 6]

Interestingly enough, if we take away the Jets and Jaguars game (and keep the Browns game), take the average over the remaining 15 games and multiply by 17, the Pats would be 16th place.

But then you have to take away the other 31 teams best games.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

The offense WITH A ROOKIE QB was 6th in scoring, 2nd in % of drives scoring, 1st in red zone % after week 3.
That and the second fewest points allowed is enough to win a lot of games. This team just did not playboys best in the most important situations.
Not sure how you call a team that made the playoffs not competitive.

Where's your link that they were 1st in RZ since week3? No way this is true. Team started 2-4 and finished 1-4. It wasn't a good offense.