And Surely We Need To Be Better Than 6th In Points Scored To Be Competitive

[Ring 6]

Good info (andyjohnson making things up as usual) but here's the thing. Middling red zone offense all year. Yes. The last 5 games the team went 1-4. Didn't move the ball, lower red zone opportunities. Why are people lying and claiming things were good when they were not. Take out the Jaguars, is 3 red zone chances a game good? No.

I didn’t make anything up and you know that. From week 4 through the end of the season the patriots were #1 in red zone offense. It’s a fact. You trying to diminish that fact doesn’t change it.

 

[venecol]

All the stats in the world don't hide the fact the team went on a smoke and mirrors win streak during the middle of the season.

Against competitive, playoff teams we couldn't win. That's all that matters. They were figured out at the end and got blown out.

 

[ivanvamp]

No you are looking at it wrong.
If a hitter goes 0-20 then 25-80 he wasn’t a .250 hitter during those 80 at bats.
Your method includes the 2/8 in weeks 1-3 to drag down the numbers while i am saying after a rough first 3 weeks, with a rookie Qb they were #1 in the NFL.

I'm not looking at it wrong. They were the worst in the NFL in the first three weeks. They were the second best in the NFL in the last three weeks. And the rest of the time (the bulk of the season) they were no better than league average.

Your way of thinking about it takes into account the last few weeks, where they were OFF THE CHARTS great. Which counts - it's all part of the total data set. But they were so good those last three weeks that it skewed the overall season numbers. It's like a hitter went bonkers the last three weeks of the season. The BULK of the season - even if you take out the first three and last three weeks (so that still leaves 11 total weeks) - the Patriots were NO BETTER than league average in the red zone.

 

[ivanvamp]

Here's the Pats' RZ attempts game-by-game:

G1 vs Mia: 1-4 (1-4 cumulative)
G2 at NYJ: 1-3 (2-7 cumulative)
G3 vs NO: 0-1 (2-7 cumulative)
G4 vs TB: 2-3 (4-10 cumulative)
G5 at Hou: 2-5 (6-15 cumulative)
G6 vs Dal: 2-2 (8-17 cumulative)
G7 vs NYJ: 6-6 (14-23 cumulative)
G8 at LAC: 1-4 (15-27 cumulative)
G9 at Car: 2-3 (17-30 cumulative)
G10 vs Cle: 5-6 (22-36 cumulative)
G11 at Atl: 1-3 (23-39 cumulative)
G12 vs Ten: 2-5 (25-44 cumulative)
G13 at Buf: 0-1 (25-45 cumulative)
G14 at Ind: 2-4 (27-49 cumulative)
G15 vs Buf: 3-3 (30-52 cumulative)
G16 vs Jax: 6-6 (36-58 cumulative)
G17 at Mia: 3-4 (39-62 cumulative)

So the first 3 weeks: 2-7 (28.6%).
Next 11 weeks: 25-42 (59.5%).
Last 3 weeks: 12-13 (92.3%).
Last 14 weeks: 37-55 (67.3%).

That 59.5% in weeks 4-14 (11 week sample in the middle of the season) would have put them #17 in the league, between Arizona (60.61%) and New Orleans (58.93%). If you are going to remove their worst three-game stretch to start the year, it's only fair to remove their lights-out three-game stretch to end the year. And left with the remaining 11 weeks - the bulk of their schedule - they were at best league average in the red zone.

Sorry, those are just facts.

I *am* encouraged by their last three games (plus playoff game) in terms of improvement. But they were absolutely NOT one of the best teams in the NFL for *THE VAST MAJORITY* of the season. They were terrible the first three weeks. They were league average the next eleven weeks. They were awesome the last three weeks. Just as those first three weeks pulled the overall season numbers down, the last three weeks pulled them way up.

 

[Jim Beankie]

But then you have to take away the other 31 teams best games.

No doubt!

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not looking at it wrong. They were the worst in the NFL in the first three weeks. They were the second best in the NFL in the last three weeks. And the rest of the time (the bulk of the season) they were no better than league average.

Your way of thinking about it takes into account the last few weeks, where they were OFF THE CHARTS great. Which counts - it's all part of the total data set. But they were so good those last three weeks that it skewed the overall season numbers. It's like a hitter went bonkers the last three weeks of the season. The BULK of the season - even if you take out the first three and last three weeks (so that still leaves 11 total weeks) - the Patriots were NO BETTER than league average in the red zone.

My way of thinking takes into account a poor start and a vast improvement. You are just choosing up time frames to get to a result.
The best in any stat is NO BETTER than the league average when you remove good games.
Overall they were a good red zone offense. After a terrible start, they improved to be the #1 over the last 14 games of the season. You seem to want to stop counting during the improvement.

 

[Ring 6]

No doubt!

Which then makes your point moot.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Which then makes your point moot.

I didn't have a point... you must be reading out of context (just thought it was wacky).

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't have a point... you must be reading out of context (just thought it was wacky).

jbean9876abcd said:
Interestingly enough, if we take away the Jets and Jaguars game (and keep the Browns game), take the average over the remaining 15 games and multiply by 17, the Pats would be 16th place.

 

[Jim Beankie]

jbean9876abcd said:
Interestingly enough, if we take away the Jets and Jaguars game (and keep the Browns game), take the average over the remaining 15 games and multiply by 17, the Pats would be 16th place.

Yeah - there's no point there except responding to this person about the coincidence of arbitrarily taking away games for the calculation, matching their speculation.

TinhWoodhead said:
6th in scoring is deceptive stat, its more like 16th

 

[Ring 6]

6th in scoring is deceptive stat, its more like 16th

What 10 teams that scored fewer points do you think actually scored more in your world?

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah - there's no point there except responding to this person about the coincidence of arbitrarily taking away games for the calculation, matching their speculation.

TinhWoodhead said:
6th in scoring is deceptive stat, its more like 16th

Ok so you succeeded in showing his/her point was moot.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Yeah - there's no point there except responding to this person about the coincidence of arbitrarily taking away games for the calculation, matching their speculation.

TinhWoodhead said:
6th in scoring is deceptive stat, its more like 16th

I think his point is all NFL team's offensive outputs are calculated the same way and it's based on 17 games.

Arbitrarily removing 2 games doesn't give you their true ranking.

If you want to take away their 2 highest scoring games then you need to do that for the other 31 teams.

If you want to take away their 2 highest scoring games then you need to remove their 2 lowest scoring games and do that for the rest of the 31 teams.

Maybe take a median/mode approach?

I don't think anyone is saying the 2021 offense was this high-flying unit. They certainly struggled vs better defenses but all offenses struggle vs better defenses.

Cowboys led the league in offense at 31.2ppg.

They scored less than their average in 10 of their 18 games and of those 10 teams 7 were top 10 defenses in PA and #8 was 11th. They scored 35 vs us but 7 was on a pick 6 and the other in OT. Our D was awful but it's points that truly matter- not yards.

 

[Jim Beankie]

I think his point is all NFL team's offensive outputs are calculated the same way and it's based on 17 games.

Arbitrarily removing 2 games doesn't give you their true ranking.

If you want to take away their 2 highest scoring games then you need to do that for the other 31 teams.

If you want to take away their 2 highest scoring games then you need to remove their 2 lowest scoring games and do that for the rest of the 31 teams.

Maybe take a median/mode approach?

I don't think anyone is saying the 2021 offense was this high-flying unit. They certainly struggled vs better defenses but all offenses struggle vs better defenses.

Cowboys led the league in offense at 31.2ppg.

They scored less than their average in 10 of their 18 games and of those 10 teams 7 were top 10 defenses in PA and #8 was 11th. They scored 35 vs us but 7 was on a pick 6 and the other in OT. Our D was awful but it's points that truly matter- not yards.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

I don't know that the following is what mgteich is referring to, but both points scored and scoring differential are wildly skewed.

54-13 in one of the games against the high school team known as the Jets.
50-10 against the middle school team known as the Jaguars
45-7 against a depleted Browns team that was still dealing with the aftermath of the OBJ drama.

That's 149-30 over just 3 games. If you take those away, the team's numbers end up as 313-273. Hell, if you take away the second Jets game and the game against the completely depleted Titans, the Patriots end up being outscored. Now, those games I just noted do count in the standings, the scores really happened, and other teams also have outliers skewing their numbers, but that's not really the issue moving forward. The issue is repeatability of such scoring, and such a differential, for the Patriots gong forward. The issue is also the ability to be score more points more consistently, rather than having scoring explosions once in a while.

Similar to 1979

Tied for 2nd in NFL in points scored

2 fifty burgers

A talented team suffering from the devastating losses of Fairbanks & Gray

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

The offense will improve naturally just by having Mac not be a rookie anymore, plus him and his targets gelling with a second season together. I'd love to add one WR a cut above Bourne/Meyers, or a slot machine, but the O should improve regardless.

If Jones is anywhere near as good in his second Patriots season as Parilli, Grogan, Eason, Flutie, Bledsoe or Brady were, we will be very competitive.

But we need improvements on defense and offense.

I'll be proactive and just anticipate that someone will question including Flutie on the list.

In 1988, Doug took a team that was miserable and went 6-3, not including the last minute win over the Colts that saved the season, but including the rematch in the Hoosier Dome which the refs took away.

With a head coach who did not believe in him.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

If Jones is anywhere near as good in his second Patriots season as Parilli, Grogan, Eason, Flutie, Bledsoe or Brady were, we will be very competitive.

But we need improvements on defense and offense.

I'll be proactive and just anticipate that someone will question including Flutie on the list.

In 1988, Doug took a team that was miserable and went 6-3, not including the last minute win over the Colts that saved the season, but including the rematch in the Hoosier Dome which the refs took away.

With a head coach who did not believe in him.

One of the best QB's ever.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

One of the best QB's ever.

Doug Flutie - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

When asked on television "Can a guy who's five-foot-nine, 175 pounds make it in the pros?", he answered "Yes, he can. But it's a matter of ability and not size. I feel I can play; I don't know for sure, and those questions will be answered in the future."

If the Patriots had kept him, and made him the starter, they would have been at least competitive. When Parcells showed up? Fryar may have stayed here. We can only imagine.

No way someone with these accomplishments would not have succeeded in the NFL:

His career CFL statistics include 41,355 passing yards and 270 touchdowns. He holds the professional football record of 6,619 yards passing in a single season. He led the league in passing five times in only eight seasons. He once held four of the CFL's top five highest single-season completion marks, including a record 466 in 1991 which was surpassed by Ricky Ray in 2005. His 48 touchdown passes in 1994 remains a CFL record. He earned three Grey Cup MVP awards, and was named the CFL's Most Outstanding Player a record six times (1991–1994, and 1996–1997). He passed 5,000+ yards six times in his career and remains the only player in pro football history to pass 6,000+ yards in a season twice in his career.

When they let him play, they won. It literally took benching him ('88 & '99) to stop him.

 

[ivanvamp]

My way of thinking takes into account a poor start and a vast improvement. You are just choosing up time frames to get to a result.
The best in any stat is NO BETTER than the league average when you remove good games.
Overall they were a good red zone offense. After a terrible start, they improved to be the #1 over the last 14 games of the season. You seem to want to stop counting during the improvement.

No. What I'm saying is that the numbers are inflated by the three crazy great weeks at the end, and for the VAST MAJORITY of the season - even taking away the three bad games at the start that you want to ignore - they were league average at best in the Red Zone. I'm sorry - the numbers are what they are.

First 3 weeks - TERRIBLE
Middle 11 weeks - league average
Last 3 weeks - GREAT

The problem is that the middle section constituted the bulk of their games. If it was three similar-sized chunks of the season, you might have a point. But having three great weeks at the end that boosts your stats doesn't really capture how you performed for the vast majority of the season.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Doug Flutie - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

When asked on television "Can a guy who's five-foot-nine, 175 pounds make it in the pros?", he answered "Yes, he can. But it's a matter of ability and not size. I feel I can play; I don't know for sure, and those questions will be answered in the future."

If the Patriots had kept him, and made him the starter, they would have been at least competitive. When Parcells showed up? Fryar may have stayed here. We can only imagine.

No way someone with these accomplishments would not have succeeded in the NFL:

His career CFL statistics include 41,355 passing yards and 270 touchdowns. He holds the professional football record of 6,619 yards passing in a single season. He led the league in passing five times in only eight seasons. He once held four of the CFL's top five highest single-season completion marks, including a record 466 in 1991 which was surpassed by Ricky Ray in 2005. His 48 touchdown passes in 1994 remains a CFL record. He earned three Grey Cup MVP awards, and was named the CFL's Most Outstanding Player a record six times (1991–1994, and 1996–1997). He passed 5,000+ yards six times in his career and remains the only player in pro football history to pass 6,000+ yards in a season twice in his career.

When they let him play, they won. It literally took benching him ('88 & '99) to stop him.

I rewatched the Hail Mary game a few nights ago.

Fun Fact: Bernie Kosar never shook Doug's hand after the game. Doug was looking for him but Bernie had already headed to the tunnel.