sanu released

[bigballas]

That was probably an attempt to appease Brady. Super uncharacteristic for BB

lol, appease Brady? the dude literally left because he had zero input.

 

[bigballas]

bad news guys .... Pats tried to release Sanu but he couldn't get separation from us

(sarcasm)

 

[captain stone]

Chad Jackson was the best WR prospect in his draft class... by a lot. He was a smart pick where he was taken, but you can't truly account for "injury" or "idiot."

He & Santonio Holmes were neck-and-neck for best WR prospect that year; the gap between the top 2 and #3 (Greg Jennings) was indeed significant...
I was on-board with everything about the CJack pick and would've done the very same thing that Bill did, including the trade-up...He was in the process of losing both Branch & Givens, plus Bethel Johnson, Andre' Davis & Tim Dwight...PK Sam was already a bust...David Patten left the year before...securing a starting-caliber WR was a must-have, and at #36 CJack might've been the best available player Regardless of position... Whenever I list Bill's litany of draft failures, I never bring up this one...Plenty of others from which to choose...

 

[captain stone]

I've heard BB doesn't let his scouts use terminology such as "1st rounder". He wants to hear things like "probable starter" or "role player with special teams potential" etc mapped to a player's third year.

Maybe it's time for him to let his scouts use other terminology, or methods, in ranking players; they all might learn something...

 

[captain stone]

If I ask my wife to cook a meatloaf for dinner and it turns out horrible, am I to blame by asking for meatloaf?

If you knew she never made meatloaf or isn't good at it, then you are to blame. I thought I made this pretty clear in my OP. Sanu has only returned one punt in his career. He's not a very agile receiver and it was painful to watch him try to dodge defenders on that punt return. And the fact that he was hung out dry returning that punt when the team was in desperate need of bodies at WR, was irresponsible of Billy.

I think you two are discussing different meanings of the meatloaf reference...

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

It's literally the title of a book.

Whenever you rely on humans, but especially in a job where the average career lasts three years, it's a crapshoot.

Amazon product ASIN B01NA02R40
You can turnover every stone, use all due diligence and still end up with egg on your face... even if some teams are better at it than others.

Chad Jackson was the best WR prospect in his draft class... by a lot. He was a smart pick where he was taken, but you can't truly account for "injury" or "idiot."

This is a ****e post Dozzy.

Evaluating talent isn't for everyone and those that use the "crapshoot" excuse are usually those that are bad at it with all due respect.

And like I said above most casual fans don't understand the difference between what I do, people in the media grading prospects and an NFL team evaluating talent. Again big difference I explained above.

Specifically regarding the draft though we've been following these kids from high school. There's a pipeline of scouts, coaches, in betweens that all follow these kids early on throughout the process until they get drafted. Combine interviews.

You have a very good understanding of the player & the person. Its 2020 you really think this stuff is secret?

We have years of tape/A22.

Athletic testing/profile makeup

You can talk to coaches about who that prospect really is. What did he struggle with in what system.

Sorry but the idea that the draft is a crapshoot is such an old man thing to say. "Here's this book for $8 bux off Amazon if you don't believe me".

Just lazy Dizzy with all due respect. It's not easy & there is a small risk/gamble but that's hardly a "crapshoot". We literally have more info about prospects than ever before.

And if the draft truly was a "crapshoot" would teams be sending scouts across the country all year? Would be looking at every piece of data possible to come up with their own board? Do you realize the amount of time/resources involved? Billion dollar teams aren't picking blind or anything close to it.

I'm glad you brought up Chad Jackson, Bozzy. Jackson was a clear case of someone who didn't love the game. Wasn't a football player through & through. $5 Brain operating a $1000000 body. That's simply bad evolution. And saying he was the best by a lot is either holding water for someone or you really missed on Jackson.

Also that wasn't an incredibly top-heavy WR draft. If he was the star of the show, clearly the best as you put it. Someone would have snatched him round one. You're waiting for that caliber of player. Instead only S Holmes went round one I believe. Jackson at 36 & G Jennings & S Moss like 2 picks later.

Jackson was a clear case of not getting your "types", your "guy" for your "system". Miss on the player and how he'd fit here.

 

[Bill Lee]

Sorry but the idea that the draft is a crapshoot is such an old man thing to say. "Here's this book for $8 bux off Amazon if you don't believe me".

Fine, if "crapshoot" is unacceptable, how about "inexact science"?

Otherwise, you can't explain the GOAT being picked up as an after thought in the 6th round, UDFAs making teams every year, etc.

 

[Wozzy]

He & Santonio Holmes were neck-and-neck for best WR prospect that year; the gap between the top 2 and #3 (Greg Jennings) was indeed significant...
I was on-board with everything about the CJack pick and would've done the very same thing that Bill did, including the trade-up...He was in the process of losing both Branch & Givens, plus Bethel Johnson, Andre' Davis & Tim Dwight...PK Sam was already a bust...David Patten left the year before...securing a starting-caliber WR was a must-have, and at #36 CJack might've been the best available player Regardless of position... Whenever I list Bill's litany of draft failures, I never bring up this one...Plenty of others from which to choose...

Bill hardly ever drafts WR's... very rarely and rarely with high picks. Best somehow year after year they had good to great WR's and led the NFL in scoring. Just because you don't draft WR's means you're poor at it, it means you simply don't. Very player you mentioned above was a mid to late draft pick... give me a break.

They traded for Randy Moss who was largely considered "washed up" at that point for a 4th round pick. Why draft WR's?

 

[Wozzy]

This is a ****e post Dozzy.

Evaluating talent isn't for everyone and those that use the "crapshoot" excuse are usually those that are bad at it with all due respect.

And like I said above most casual fans don't understand the difference between what I do, people in the media grading prospects and an NFL team evaluating talent. Again big difference I explained above.

Specifically regarding the draft though we've been following these kids from high school. There's a pipeline of scouts, coaches, in betweens that all follow these kids early on throughout the process until they get drafted. Combine interviews.

You have a very good understanding of the player & the person. Its 2020 you really think this stuff is secret?

We have years of tape/A22.

Athletic testing/profile makeup

You can talk to coaches about who that prospect really is. What did he struggle with in what system.

Sorry but the idea that the draft is a crapshoot is such an old man thing to say. "Here's this book for $8 bux off Amazon if you don't believe me".

Just lazy Dizzy with all due respect. It's not easy & there is a small risk/gamble but that's hardly a "crapshoot". We literally have more info about prospects than ever before.

And if the draft truly was a "crapshoot" would teams be sending scouts across the country all year? Would be looking at every piece of data possible to come up with their own board? Do you realize the amount of time/resources involved? Billion dollar teams aren't picking blind or anything close to it.

I'm glad you brought up Chad Jackson, Bozzy. Jackson was a clear case of someone who didn't love the game. Wasn't a football player through & through. $5 Brain operating a $1000000 body. That's simply bad evolution. And saying he was the best by a lot is either holding water for someone or you really missed on Jackson.

Also that wasn't an incredibly top-heavy WR draft. If he was the star of the show, clearly the best as you put it. Someone would have snatched him round one. You're waiting for that caliber of player. Instead only S Holmes went round one I believe. Jackson at 36 & G Jennings & S Moss like 2 picks later.

Jackson was a clear case of not getting your "types", your "guy" for your "system". Miss on the player and how he'd fit here.

I guess I'm not familiar with what you do exactly, are you employed by an NFL team? Do you have some record that's time stamped which shows us your hit/miss record?

And yes, the Patriots have the most advanced scouting system in pro football, they hit at the highest rate of just about any team in the NFL for the last two decades... yet we still have posters here telling us BB sucks at it. Strange?

I don't see the need for all the name calling. A ****e, Dizzy, Bozzy... what's that all about? Seems like this is an a ****e post in response to a pretty rational reply to your comment. Why don't you copy/paste or link me to your big board from a year or two ago so we can compare hits and misses since you appear so confident?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Fine, if "crapshoot" is unacceptable, how about "inexact science"?

Otherwise, you can't explain the GOAT being picked up as an after thought in the 6th round, UDFAs making teams every year, etc.

Can we agree on ... When someone says "crapshoot" they're usually implying you're picking blind. Just throwing darts at the board? That bothers me.

Saying its unpredictable is fine. Honestly call it w/e you want.

I'm giving you legitimate reasons why it's not though and all I hear from the other side is "it's hard" or something like that.

College/Pro teams are keeping tabs once these kids walk out there door in the morning. It's a small world. Esp in Florida, Texas, Cali ... No one is coming out of nowhere.

So teams have a good idea of who the player is as a person.

Years of film. Not only that but all these coaches and amateurs for that matter know the system. What that offense or defense is trying to accomplish. What's being asked. Bad QB? LB with no help on the DL.

All this stuff is factored in when looking at film trying to decipher what you're seeing. Why you're seeing it etc...

Then we athletic testing. Profile makeup. When did they break out? What age? What's their market share and on and on and on

Teams are around them at the SR bowl, combine/Pro day and other events. Interviews.

I mean at what point does this go from not hitting the board to you're just not good at throwing darts? Seriously if someone has all that info. A good understanding of the game, draft process etc

That's not some process where you're eyes are closed and just chucking darts at the board.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I guess I'm not familiar with what you do exactly, are you employed by an NFL team? Do you have some record that's time stamped which shows us your hit/miss record?

And yes, the Patriots have the most advanced scouting system in pro football, they hit at the highest rate of just about any team in the NFL for the last two decades... yet we still have posters here telling us BB sucks at it. Strange?

I don't see the need for all the name calling. A ****e, Dizzy, Bozzy... what's that all about? Seems like this is an a ****e post in response to a pretty rational reply to your comment. Why don't you copy/paste or link me to your big board from a year or two ago so we can compare hits and misses since you appear so confident?

You posted a book on Amazon saying its a crapshoot Wozzy. Don't be mad.

I undressed your post and gave you several legit reasons why teams aren't picking blind. That's exactly what people mean when they say that and in you're next post you're talking about "hit rate".

Go argue with the posters who says Bill sux. Just do a better job than you have here. I think Bill is one of the best ever regarding the draft, roster management, player development. I'll absolutely call a bad pick a bad pick but I think he's easily one of the best in all those departments.

Here's 10 years and if you ever looked in the draft forum someone looked at my grades before. Another poster looked at my grades vs NFL as well using the AV from PFR but only those two so far. TBhelmut was doing some work on the draft before Covid hit and took his efforts elsewhere.
BaconGrudleCandy the draft God

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1drv.ms

 

[Bill Lee]

Can we agree on ... When someone says "crapshoot" they're usually implying you're picking blind. Just throwing darts at the board? That bothers me.

Saying its unpredictable is fine. Honestly call it w/e you want.

Fair enough, "crapshoot" is poor description, craps is as random as it gets. On the other hand, winning at darts requires skill.

That's not some process where you're eyes are closed and just chucking darts at the board.

True, but it's also not a process where having the Nth draft pick gets you the player that will have the Nth best career, which is what some people on this board seem to think.

What I hate is the "OMG, we just cut a guy we drafted in the Nth round, WTF!". First of all, we tend to be drafting at the end of rounds, so our Nth round pick is pretty different than da Jete's Nth round pick. Also, the day after the player was picked his draft position just became something about his past, and not much more. One thing BB is great at is ignoring sunk costs. What matters is what you show on the practice field in Foxborough, not what you showed in your college town.

So, the draft is not a random crap shoot, but it's also not a "pay X, get Y" guarantee either. Personally, since we're talking about athletes that are humans and not machines, I think expected outcome is a lot more unpredictable than many seem to think. Today we're seeing a lot of high round draft choices being cut by their teams. It's a sign they have a lot of better choices, be it team vets or free agents. As for us:

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Fair enough, "crapshoot" is poor description, craps is as random as it gets. On the other hand, winning at darts requires skill.


True, but it's also not a process where having the Nth draft pick gets you the player that will have the Nth best career, which is what some people on this board seem to think.

What I hate is the "OMG, we just cut a guy we drafted in the Nth round, WTF!". First of all, we tend to be drafting at the end of rounds, so our Nth round pick is pretty different than da Jete's Nth round pick. Also, the day after the player was picked his draft position just became something about his past, and not much more. One thing BB is great at is ignoring sunk costs. What matters is what you show on the practice field in Foxborough, not what you showed in your college town.

So, the draft is not a random crap shoot, but it's also not a "pay X, get Y" guarantee either. Personally, since we're talking about athletes that are humans and not machines, I think expected outcome is a lot more unpredictable than many seem to think. Today we're seeing a lot of high round draft choices being cut by their teams. It's a sign they have a lot of better choices, be it team vets or free agents. As for us:

I generally agree with everything you're saying. It's very hard and a different animal every year. I've been hearing about Hakeem Butler, Josh Rosen & others for days so it's definitely humbling at times.

 

[Wozzy]

You posted a book on Amazon saying its a crapshoot Wozzy. Don't be mad.

I undressed your post and gave you several legit reasons why teams aren't picking blind. That's exactly what people mean when they say that and in you're next post you're talking about "hit rate".

Go argue with the posters who says Bill sux. Just do a better job than you have here. I think Bill is one of the best ever regarding the draft, roster management, player development. I'll absolutely call a bad pick a bad pick but I think he's easily one of the best in all those departments.

Here's 10 years and if you ever looked in the draft forum someone looked at my grades before. Another poster looked at my grades vs NFL as well using the AV from PFR but only those two so far. TBhelmut was doing some work on the draft before Covid hit and took his efforts elsewhere.
BaconGrudleCandy the draft God

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1drv.ms

Team aren't picking blind... but show me the guarantee where even the most solid, safe picks are going to work out... they aren't.

I didn't write the book, yet someone took the time to do so. Go look at Bill Walsh's first two draft classes, they're pathetic... and he's considered The Godfather of draft analytics. I call a bad pick a bad pick also, but I also readily accept that a player can be considered a great pick and still not work out... see Chad Jackson. That guy was a workout stud, had college production, went to the combine and wowed the scouts, set the combine record for consecutive catches on the jugs machine catching the last one behind his back... he was a can't miss prospect. Ultimately he was a moron who believed his own hype.

People can't be trusted, they're untrustworthy... ergo the draft is a crapshoot. Lastly "injury" cannot be predicted... at all.

You couldn't make me mad or undress me if you tried, the bottom line is that people are complete wildcards, especially in the toughest business in all of pro sports.

All this whining about Bill's missed picks is hot air, at the end of the day the rosters he assembled were talented and he won.

 

[Uptown]

When you called Malcom Brown a "solid starter for several years", your post lost all credibility.

What? Brown started for 4 seasons & was solid; nowhere near great, but solid. Obviously, he never “lived up” to his 1st round draft status, but he was a solid player.

 

[TheRainMaker]

What? Brown started for 4 seasons & was solid; nowhere near great, but solid. Obviously, he never “lived up” to his 1st round draft status, but he was a solid player.

I'd go more with decent or adequate.

 

[Deus Irae]

What? Brown started for 4 seasons & was solid; nowhere near great, but solid. Obviously, he never “lived up” to his 1st round draft status, but he was a solid player.

He wasn't even solid. He was a low end starter who couldn't do his job without having a superior player next to him. That's why he's gone.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Team aren't picking blind... but show me the guarantee where even the most solid, safe picks are going to work out... they aren't.

I didn't write the book, yet someone took the time to do so. Go look at Bill Walsh's first two draft classes, they're pathetic... and he's considered The Godfather of draft analytics. I call a bad pick a bad pick also, but I also readily accept that a player can be considered a great pick and still not work out... see Chad Jackson. That guy was a workout stud, had college production, went to the combine and wowed the scouts, set the combine record for consecutive catches on the jugs machine catching the last one behind his back... he was a can't miss prospect. Ultimately he was a moron who believed his own hype.

People can't be trusted, they're untrustworthy... ergo the draft is a crapshoot. Lastly "injury" cannot be predicted... at all.

You couldn't make me mad or undress me if you tried, the bottom line is that people are complete wildcards, especially in the toughest business in all of pro sports.

All this whining about Bill's missed picks is hot air, at the end of the day the rosters he assembled were talented and he won.

Sorry man but ur post bring nothing at all. No insight or anything with all due respect. You're not saying anything of substance or concrete just saying things.

Like this is what you're bringing?
People can't be trusted, they're untrustworthy... ergo the draft is a crapshoot.

Sorry man it's pretty weak.


I've giving you many reasons why the draft isn't a crapshoot and you just keep writing nothing in these post. People that do it for a living - a lot smarter than me, disagree about it being a crapshoot. So between them, my own experience and research I'm comfortable in having that as an opinion.

The only thing I'm getting from your post is how bad you missed on Jackson.

 

[Wozzy]

Sorry man but ur post bring nothing at all. No insight or anything with all due respect. You're not saying anything of substance or concrete just saying things.

Like this is what you're bringing?
People can't be trusted, they're untrustworthy... ergo the draft is a crapshoot.

Sorry man it's pretty weak.


I've giving you many reasons why the draft isn't a crapshoot and you just keep writing nothing in these post. People that do it for a living - a lot smarter than me, disagree about it being a crapshoot. So between them, my own experience and research I'm comfortable in having that as an opinion.

The only thing I'm getting from your post is how bad you missed on Jackson.

Yeah I'm wrong, that's why the best talent evaluator in the NFL hits on roughly 30% of his picks, like a MLB hitter... and a crew of negative Nancy types tells us he sucks. Because the draft is a science... lol. It's not. It's an inexact science, it's a crapshoot, it's anything but simple or reliable.

 

[Wozzy]

He wasn't even solid. He was a low end starter who couldn't do his job without having a superior player next to him. That's why he's gone.

Who was the superior starter next to him over his four years? He's gone because of money, BB thinks he can replace anyone, including Brady.