sanu released

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Yeah I'm wrong, that's why the best talent evaluator in the NFL hits on roughly 30% of his picks, like a MLB hitter... and a crew of negative Nancy types tells us he sucks. Because the draft is a science... lol. It's not. It's an inexact science, it's a crapshoot, it's anything but simple or reliable.

Go argue with the posters that say he sucks bc its not me.

And I've never even come close to saying the draft is a science. Now you're putting words in my mouth after losing your post come off as casual. You've failed to make any point at all besides repeating the draft is a crapshoot. Again this is the best you've got ... "People can't be trusted, they're untrustworthy... ergo the draft is a crapshoot".

Take your L and try again if you want but I can't remember a post of yours that gave me any insight into anything never mind the draft.

 

[Uptown]

I'd go more with decent or adequate.

Yeah, that’s what solid is..decent/adequate. C-level player.

 

[Uptown]

He wasn't even solid. He was a low end starter who couldn't do his job without having a superior player next to him. That's why he's gone.

He was a solid player. C-level. That’s what solid is.

 

[Deus Irae]

He was a solid player. C-level. That’s what solid is.

We disagree on the meaning of solid in context, then.

 

[Wozzy]

Go argue with the posters that say he sucks bc its not me.

And I've never even come close to saying the draft is a science. Now you're putting words in my mouth after losing your post come off as casual. You've failed to make any point at all besides repeating the draft is a crapshoot. Again this is the best you've got ... "People can't be trusted, they're untrustworthy... ergo the draft is a crapshoot".

Take your L and try again if you want but I can't remember a post of yours that gave me any insight into anything never mind the draft.

I wasn't aware this was a competition, I was simply pointing out that someone had written a book refuting your notion the draft isn't a crapshoot, that I agree with the author and success rates of the best GM's proves it.

But one thing I've learned is that you take yourself and your "draft expertise" entirely too seriously. Lighten up Francis.

 

[ivanvamp]

Malcom Brown was so lousy a pick that he played in 60 games over four years in NE, starting in 51 of them (85%). Then he got signed by a very good New Orleans team and in 2019 promptly started 16 out of 16 games.

But the guy is mediocre. Both Belichick and Payton have misjudged his ability so badly they started him 88% of the time on two of the league’s best teams.

If you draft a guy in his spot in the draft and he plays five years in the league, starting on very good defenses in 67 out of 76 games played, you’ve made a solid draft pick.

 

[Uptown]

Malcom Brown was so lousy a pick that he played in 60 games over four years in NE, starting in 51 of them (85%). Then he got signed by a very good New Orleans team and in 2019 promptly started 16 out of 16 games.

But the guy is mediocre. Both Belichick and Payton have misjudged his ability so badly they started him 88% of the time on two of the league’s best teams.

If you draft a guy in his spot in the draft and he plays five years in the league, starting on very good defenses in 67 out of 76 games played, you’ve made a solid draft pick.

Thanks for the CONTEXT bruh..

 

[ivanvamp]

From the draft analysis article I cited a few pages ago: “Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.”

So drafting a D-lineman in the first round means you’ve got a 58% chance of that player being a starter for HALF the games he plays.

And the Pats selected Brown at the end of the first round, which is obviously very different from drafting him #8 or whatever. And Brown has started in 88% of his games played. And oh by the way, he’s been very durable, only missing four games in five seasons.

He’s been a HIGHLY successful first round draft pick.

 

[RIpats88]

Its not just the draft though....even in free agency bill whiffs on wide receivers more than any other team. I mean you get a guy like emmanuel sanders sign with the 49ers and immediately contributes. with receivers we bring in its like 50-50 whether they will do nothing. Maybe its the complicated offensive system, idk. it took Amendola 2 years to contribute

now, maybe this year with what i am assuming is going a simpler offense as you have a starting quarterback whom has only been here since June these guys will flourish more? I guess we will see...

 

[Patsgofor4]

Its not just the draft though....even in free agency bill whiffs on wide receivers more than any other team. I mean you get a guy like emmanuel sanders sign with the 49ers and immediately contributes. with receivers we bring in its like 50-50 whether they will do nothing. Maybe its the complicated offensive system, idk. it took Amendola 2 years to contribute

now, maybe this year with what i am assuming is going a simpler offense as you have a starting quarterback whom has only been here since June these guys will flourish more? I guess we will see...

Sanders didn't sign with SF, they traded for him at the deadline last year and after an excellent first game with them he did virtually nothing the rest of the season.

 

[luuked]

From the draft analysis article I cited a few pages ago: “Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.”

So drafting a D-lineman in the first round means you’ve got a 58% chance of that player being a starter for HALF the games he plays.

And the Pats selected Brown at the end of the first round, which is obviously very different from drafting him #8 or whatever. And Brown has started in 88% of his games played. And oh by the way, he’s been very durable, only missing four games in five seasons.

He’s been a HIGHLY successful first round draft pick.

I think if you'd slice if even further down and would look at the success rate in the lower 25% of of first round picks -- which is where we have been drafting for a decade -- you'd be even lower than that. You are mostly getting 2nd/3rd round talent at a higher APY but with an additional optional year at those spots.

One of the most absurd things is how reductive many posters are about that "first round" label when it conveniently fits whatever narrative their are pushing.

 

[ivanvamp]

I think if you'd slice if even further down and would look at the success rate in the lower 25% of of first round picks -- which is where we have been drafting for a decade -- you'd be even lower than that. You are mostly getting 2nd/3rd round talent at a higher APY but with an additional optional year at those spots.

One of the most absurd things is how reductive many posters are about that "first round" label when it conveniently fits whatever narrative their are pushing.

Right. And beware the judgment of anyone who says that Brown was a bad pick when that’s objectively false.

 

[Family]

Why is BB the best at finding UFA's if he supposedly sucks at drafting?

It's all talent evaluation of the same pool of players.

Bill has a magic to putting together a roster, and how he drafts fits into that philosophy.

 

[luuked]

Right. And beware the judgment of anyone who says that Brown was a bad pick when that’s objectively false.

Brown was a fine pick. He was certainly not a superstar and definitely not a bust. He played a lot of snaps through his time here and contributed to titles.

Anyone who thinks he was disappointing needs to check their own expectations and maybe ask themselves if their priors just make them look at things through a biased, negative lens.

 

[ivanvamp]

Brown was a fine pick. He was certainly not a superstar and definitely not a bust. He played a lot of snaps through his time here and contributed to titles.

Anyone who thinks he was disappointing needs to check their own expectations and maybe ask themselves if their priors just make them look at things through a biased, negative lens.

Yep. Definitely not a star. But a solid starting D-lineman in the NFL for five years. Actually has exceeded expectations for a first round pick, and exceeded expectations by a large margin for a first round DL pick.

Picking that at the end of the first round is an unqualified success by any objective measure.

 

[Kasmir]

Yeah I'm wrong, that's why the best talent evaluator in the NFL hits on roughly 30% of his picks, like a MLB hitter... and a crew of negative Nancy types tells us he sucks. Because the draft is a science... lol. It's not. It's an inexact science, it's a crapshoot, it's anything but simple or reliable.

Woz, I enjoy and look forward to your posts, but in BGC you really picked the worst possible person on this board to argue with about the draft. And besides, why bother when there are high hanging fruitcakes p*ssing nearby?

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Woz, I enjoy and look forward to your posts, but in BGC you really picked the worst possible person on this board to argue with about the draft. And besides, why bother when there are high hanging fruitcakes p*ssing nearby?

I agree. I love @BaconGrundleCandy and @Wozzy as posters. Great stuff from both. Not sure why the meaning of "crapshoot" is important. Their posts are full of valuable info and insights, and arguing over a word in empty.

 

[Kasmir]

Why is BB the best at finding UFA's if he supposedly sucks at drafting?

It's all talent evaluation of the same pool of players.

Bill has a magic to putting together a roster, and how he drafts fits into that philosophy.

IKR? Silliest of all are the claims that BB because of some some mysterious flaw has a peculiar blind spot in the 2nd round. Occam's Razor says: numerological balderdash!

 

[Wozzy]

Malcom Brown was so lousy a pick that he played in 60 games over four years in NE, starting in 51 of them (85%). Then he got signed by a very good New Orleans team and in 2019 promptly started 16 out of 16 games.

But the guy is mediocre. Both Belichick and Payton have misjudged his ability so badly they started him 88% of the time on two of the league’s best teams.

If you draft a guy in his spot in the draft and he plays five years in the league, starting on very good defenses in 67 out of 76 games played, you’ve made a solid draft pick.

Some fans believe if a player doesn't accumulate glory stats (Sacks, Int's, even Tackles) then said player is no good or average. When an opponent has five offensive linemen weighing in excess of 320 pounds that equals roughly 1600 pounds of beef... that's not even including TE's. You don't match that with 200 pound Corners, you don't match it with 250 pound LB'ers... you need 320 pound NT's upfront.

They don't play a lot of snaps, they often only play on short downs and goal line, but if you don't have at least two of these guys it can become a bloodbath, the opponent doesn't even have to pass on you, they push you all over the field running the ball.

I would also add that schematically the Patriots two gap and rarely use their NT's to do much else, that was a complaint of Richard Seymour's over a decade ago. Two gapping isn't sexy, but it allows others to get sacks and make run stops.

 

[Wozzy]

I agree. I love @BaconGrundleCandy and @Wozzy as posters. Great stuff from both. Not sure why the meaning of "crapshoot" is important. Their posts are full of valuable info and insights, and arguing over a word in empty.

I agree it's silly, and I enjoy BGC's posts.