OT-ish: The gambling thread

[jmt57]

Lines as of Tuesday night:

Colts (51½) at Patriots (-10)

Ravens (-3) at Browns (47)
Jaguars (49) at Chiefs (-3)
Titans (-3½) at Bills (39)
Giants (44½) at Panthers (-7)
Broncos (42½) at Jets (-1)
Falcons (57) at Steelers (-3)
Packers (-1) at Lions (51)
Dolphins (49½) at Bengals (-6½)

Raiders (53½) at Chargers (-5½)
Cardinals (41) at Niners (-4½)
Vikings (44½) at Eagles (-3)
Rams (-7) at Seahawks (50½)

Cowboys (45) at Texans (-3)

Redskins (52½) at Saints (-6½)


Denver, Green Bay, New Orleans and Rams are possibilities at first glance, prior to a bit more research.



Here are the Early Week 6 'Look-Ahead' Westgate Odds:

Eagles (-2½) at Giants

Cardinals at Vikings (-11½)
Chargers (-1½) at Browns
Bears at Dolphins (-1)
Panthers at Redskins (-1½)
Colts at Jets (-1)
Steelers at Bengals (-3)
Buccaneers at Falcons (-6½)
Seahawks vs Raiders (pk) in London
Bills at Texans (-8)

Rams (-6) at Broncos
Jaguars (-2½) at Cowboys
Ravens (-1) at Titans

Chiefs at Patriots (-3)

Niners at Packers (-8½)

 

[BobDigital]

Week 2 - 1-2-1
Week 3 - 1-3
Week 4 - 1-3

There is a good reason you never bet on early NFL games. Most people end up getting about 50% of their NFL bets, but consistently they do a lot better in the 2nd half than the first, Right now my first half bets have been horrible even though I still think they were the right bets to make. Teams right now are just too inconsistent is the problem. While I have an early hole to dig out of I am confident I will as I tend to do this every single year. Maybe I should bet the opposite of my early predictions

Jax @ KC 48.5 - over - KC simply can't be kept down all game long if their guys are healthy. Not possible as shown even with Denver playing great on defense. However their offense is trash and the Jags offense seems to have improved without Fournette honestly. I see Bortles having a good day vs this crap D and I see a lot of points scored in this one.
KC 30, Jax 14 - ?

GB -1 @ Det - - GB - In what is a pick em it is hard for me to ignore this game. GB is one of the hardest teams to bet on early as they sleep walk through the first 2 months but i just think they are better than Detroit.
Det 31, GB 23 - ?

Rams - 7 @ Seattle - Rams - Without Thomas it is hard to see Seattle keeping within 7 anymore. He is by far the most important person on that D as he holds the secondary together. Without him everyone back there gets worse. The Rams continue stay hot.
Rams 33, Seattle 31 - ?

Tenn - 3 @ Buff - Tenn - I don't believe much in Tenn yet even though they won solid back to back games. But I have no reason to believe in anything to do with the Bills. They just can't score and the Titans are better than average bordering on good. Enough for me to happily take 3 points.
Buff 13, Tenn 12 - ?

 

[fightingirish595]

(Almost) right there with you, though not quite as bad of a beat as yours.

OT-ish: The gambling thread

Still bad, ugh that’s rough

 

[Hyped]

Rams - 7 @ Seattle - Rams - Without Thomas it is hard to see Seattle keeping within 7 anymore. He is by far the most important person on that D as he holds the secondary together. Without him everyone back there gets worse. The Rams continue stay hot.

I'd bet the house on Seattle. Weird things happen at Century Link field. ?

I think it'll be a close game decided by a Janowski figgie late....

 

[Froob]

I threw all of my gambling balance on Pats money line along with a chunk on the -10. The money line is a guarantee and the -10 is a near lock.

 

[FCB02062]

Indianapolis +11... I smell a backdoor cover

?

 

[fnordcircle]

$300 on the Patriots -10.

?

 

[fnordcircle]

I threw all of my gambling balance on Pats money line along with a chunk on the -10. The money line is a guarantee and the -10 is a near lock.

When you're done being ****ywhipped let's celebrate.

 

[fightingirish595]

Had pats -9.5 and team total over 31.5. Let’s gooooo

? & ?

 

[Froob]

When you're done being ****ywhipped let's celebrate.

Well least I won back like half the money I spent on birthday dinner lol.

 

[jmt57]

Latest odds and over/under, about an hour prior to kickoff for the early week 7 games.

Nothing in particular jumps out at me this week. Best bet was the hammer (Patriots) once again pounding the nail (Colts), especially with Indy travelling on a very short week (TNF).

Early Games:
Ravens (-3) at Browns [45] - Cle 12, Bal 9 in OT
Jaguars [48½] at Chiefs (-3) - KC 30, Jax 14
Titans (-6) at Bills [38½] - Buff 13, Tenn 12
Giants [43½] at Panthers (-6½) - Car 33, NYG 31
Broncos [-1] at Jets (42½) - NYJ 34, Den 16
Falcons [57] at Steelers (-3½) - Pitt 41, Atl 17
Packers [50½] at Lions (-1) - Det 31, GB 23
Dolphins [47½] at Bengals (-6) - Cin 27, Mia 17

Late Games:
Raiders [52] at Chargers (-5) - LAC 26, Oak 10
Cardinals [40½] at Niners (-3) - Ariz 28, SF 18
Vikings [48] at Eagles (-3½) - Min 23, Phi 21
Rams (-7½) at Seahawks [50½] - LAR 33, Sea 31

Night Games:
Cowboys [45½] at Texans (-3) - Hou 19, Dal 16 (OT)
Redskins [53] at Saints (-6) - NO 43, Wash 19

 

[jmt57]

Five-point Teaser, 3 units: ?
Panthers -1½ vs Giants ? - Car wins by 2, cover by ½
Dolphins +11 at Bengals ? - Cin wins by 10, Mia covers by 1
Vikings +8½ at Eagles ? - Min wins by 2, covers by 10½
Rams -2½ at Seahawks ? - Rams win by 2, fail to cover by ½





Here are my predictions on this week's games, though nothing stands out enough to me to make a wager on either the odds or the moneyline.

I like the Chiefs, but wonder if there is a possibility they look ahead to the Patriots.
The Ravens have a tendency to lay an egg as soon as you think they are playing well.
Was tempted to place a wager on Green Bay, but they have played so poorly on the road recently. Denver is another good possibility, despite having to travel two time zones for an early game. I like the Rams too even though they are on the road for a division game. Seattle is (or should be) in rebuild mode; they just don't realize it yet.

Early Games:
Ravens (-3) at Browns ?
Jaguars at Chiefs (-3) ?
Titans at Bills (+6) ?
Giants at Panthers (-6½) ?
Broncos (-1) at Jets ?
Falcons (+3½) at Steelers ?
Packers (+1) at Lions ?
Dolphins (+6) at Bengals ?

Late Games:
Raiders at Chargers (-5) ?
Cardinals at Niners (-3) ?
Vikings (+3½) at Eagles ?
Rams (-7½) at Seahawks ?

Night Games:
Cowboys at Texans (-3) -Push-
Redskins (+6) at Saints ?

 

[jmt57]

Another week of getting killed on that one final west coast game.

Five-point Teaser, 3 units:
Panthers -1½ vs Giants ??
Dolphins +11 at Bengals ??
Vikings +8½ at Eagles ??
Rams -2½ at Seahawks ? ... by half a point ​

 

[JarOfMayo51]

The over at 52.5 was an easy choice for this game, the Saints might go over that by themselves lol

 

[jmt57]

Early Week 7 'Lookahead' Lines:

Broncos (-2½) at Cardinals [Thursday Night]
Titans vs Chargers (-3) [Sunday morning, London]
Texans at Jaguars [no line]
Panthers at Eagles (-3)
Vikings (-4) at Jets
Patriots (-3) at Bears
Bills at Colts (-5½)
Browns at Bucs (-1½)
Lions (-2) at Dolphins
Late Games:
Saints at Ravens (PK)
Cowboys at Redskins (-3)
Rams (-12½) at Niners [flexed from SNF to 4:25 ET]
Bengals at Chiefs (-6½) [flexed to Sunday Night]
Giants at Falcons (-3½) [MNF]

A bit of trivia: just 23 teams have closed as home dogs of 12½ points or more since 2003. The last time it happened was on January 3, 2016 when Cleveland was a 13 point home underdog to the Steelers. No wonder the Niners got bumped out of the Sunday Night Football showcase.



Current (early Tuesday evening) Week Six odds:

Eagles (-3) at Giants [44]

Cardinals at Vikings (-10½) [43]
Chargers (-1) at Browns [44½]
Bears (-3) at Dolphins [42]
Panthers at Redskins (-1) [45]
Colts at Jets (-2½) [45]
Steelers at Bengals (-2½) [53]
Bucs at Falcons (-3½) [57½]
Seahawks (-3) 'at' Raiders [48] - (London)
Bills at Texans (-8½)

Rams (-7) at Broncos [52½]
Jaguars (-3) at Cowboys [40½]
Ravens (-3) at Titans [41]

Chiefs at Patriots (-3½) [59½]
Niners at Packers (-9½) [46½]

 

[1960Pats]

Once again I went 6-8-1 vs the spread for an imaginary loss of $140.

Week 4 (6-8-1) -$140
Week 5 (6-8-1) -$140
Total -$280

The stats vs the spread after 5 weeks are as follows;
36 favorites won and covered (23 were over 3 pts)
27 underdogs won outright (11 were over 3 pts)
12 favorites won or tied and didn't cover (10 were over 3 pts)
3 games tied the spread (none were over 3 points)

 

[fnordcircle]

Rams -2½ at Seahawks ? ... by half a point ​

Ugh, that sucks, sorry dude.

$300 down on the Patriots in a minute, don't care what the line is, betting on MAH BOYS

 

[Joker]

I'm betting the Yankees suck...

 

[fnordcircle]

Line was -3.5 @ my local book. Bought a half point cause half points are how the Russians rig elections.

 

[supafly]

Line was -3.5 @ my local book. Bought a half point cause half points are how the Russians rig elections.

You’ve got to buy that half point in this type of situation. Now you can push in a FG victory. I may have waited until later in the week after the public had brought it down to -3, but you’re the one winning money, so what the hell do I know?