How does the Patriots offense change without Edelman?

[Deus Irae]

He got 1492 yards pretty much 1500 yards, oh and you left out 23 touchdowns an NFL record

I didn't leave anything out. I responded to a claim about 1600 yards.

You forgot this was a 30 year old moss who was slightly past his prime physically compared to a 1998-2003 moss who ran a 4.20 40

Your attempt to minimize Moss as an attempt to create a stronger argument for Jones is noted, but pathetic. Moss was absolutely brilliant in 2007. He just didn't get the yardage that was being claimed for Jones.

So what's your point? Why are you defending Edelman? You really think he's better in this "system" than Julio? You think Edelman puts up better numbers with tom brady than Julio would? What's your point? What kind of numbers do you think Julio would put up for New England?

I made my point abundantly clear, right here

How does the Patriots offense change without Edelman?

in a post that Andy chose to wrongly disagree with, despite the entire history of Brady's presence in N.E. proving my point. Even in 2007, when Moss was setting the TD record, there was Welker catching 112 balls to Moss' 98, and he caught those 112 balls at a 77% rate (112/145). This team wins because Brady moves the chains, and Brady's main targets to move the chains are the quick open guys (Brown/Branch/Welker/Edelman).

Julio Jones > Julian Edelman as a NFL WR

If you took away all reference to QB, team and scheme, and then had a "choose your players" session with just WRs, you'd pick a bunch of guys ahead of Edelman.

However, if you are talking about Brady and the Patriots, that number drops, and that list becomes very, very short, because the key receiver for the Tom Brady system is the quick open guy. That's why I suggested people make a list. it becomes obvious when you do that.

 

[supafly]

This offense moves through the slot/quick timing routes, which take advantage of pre-read mismatches, and usually come over the middle. It's the bread and butter, and has been for years.

It's almost certainly going to be Amendola, folks, so let's hope he can withstand a full season. The idea that we have a guy who was initially brought in to do all of those things but will be bubble-wrapped with a low snap total until the playoffs is asinine.

How do we make up for the responsibilities of Edelman? 60% comes from Amendola, with the other 40% coming from routes run by Mitchell, Cooks, and the RBs. If a guy like Burkhead, Foster, or even Carr can contribute more--all the better, but initially, I think they mainly stick with someone who not only knows the system well, but has effectively contributed in it at times.

The main concerns, of course, are the durability and fact that he's obviously not as quick coming off the line. Let's hope the OL holds up, the running game looks solid, and that they continue to work through this until the loss isn't as noticeable.

 

[doesntmatter1]

1st we need another gunner if Slater isn't good to go because we are going to be punting more frequently. Our offense in the meantime will most likely replace Edelman by upping the usage of screens. I expect Burkhead to have a bigger role now.

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't leave anything out. I responded to a claim about 1600 yards.



Your attempt to minimize Moss as an attempt to create a stronger argument for Jones is noted, but pathetic. Moss was absolutely brilliant in 2007. He just didn't get the yardage that was being claimed for Jones.



I made my point abundantly clear, right here

How does the Patriots offense change without Edelman?

in a post that Andy chose to wrongly disagree with, despite the entire history of Brady's presence in N.E. proving my point. Even in 2007, when Moss was setting the TD record, there was Welker catching 112 balls to Moss' 98, and he caught those 112 balls at a 77% rate (112/145). This team wins because Brady moves the chains, and Brady's main targets to move the chains are the quick open guys (Brown/Branch/Welker/Edelman).



If you took away all reference to QB, team and scheme, and then had a "choose your players" session with just WRs, you'd pick a bunch of guys ahead of Edelman.

However, if you are talking about Brady and the Patriots, that number drops, and that list becomes very, very short, because the key receiver for the Tom Brady system is the quick open guy. That's why I suggested people make a list. it becomes obvious when you do that.

This is simply wrong.
Brady put up better numbers with moss than any "move the chains" receiver. He put up record setting numbers with Gronk. Julio jones is better than Edelman despite your attempts to somehow say jones outproduces him only because Edelman is saddled with Brady.
This thread is not your best day.

 

[Ring 6]

There's enough ridiculousness in this thread without you adding more to it than you already have. Julio got 1800 in a different system. Moss got over 1600 in Minnesota, in 2003. In New England, he never topped 1500, even in his otherworldly 2007 season.

There certainly is ridiculousness in this thread.
Arguing Edelman is better than jones because moss had fewer yards is where it starts.

 

[K. Dog]

It's kind of ridiculous how people are misusing statistics. Try watching the games more. This fantasy football mindset should not be infecting this forum.

Did it ever occur to you people that the main reason the Falcons were using the robber coverage in SBLI was because of Edelman? And that is why White succeeded. So White's yards were due in some part to Edelman: he had numerous crucial blocks for White, and he's attracting the robber. He's shifting the whole coverage around just for him.

That's just one of many examples where you can't compare "yards" to compare WRs. You have to look at things like how the WRs presence changes the defense and allows other plays, not to mention blocks.

 

[Ring 6]

It's kind of ridiculous how people are misusing statistics. Try watching the games more. This fantasy football mindset should not be infecting this forum.

Did it ever occur to you people that the main reason the Falcons were using the robber coverage in SBLI was because of Edelman? And that is why White succeeded. So White's yards were due in some part to Edelman: he had numerous crucial blocks for White, and he's attracting the robber. He's shifting the whole coverage around just for him.

That's just one of many examples where you can't compare "yards" to compare WRs. You have to look at things like how the WRs presence changes the defense and allows other plays, not to mention blocks.

And you think that Julian Edelman has a bigger effect on a defense than Julio jones?

 

[K. Dog]

And you think that Julian Edelman has a bigger effect on a defense than Julio jones?

I am saying that to evaluate a player you have to look at the player's impact on the probability of the team winning a given game. That means you have to consider the defensive scheme, the effect of the defensive scheme, the effect on the defense of long passes versus short passes, the performance when the OL is not doing well, the blocking ability, and many other things. You cannot compare single metrics like "yards".

In other words you are going to have to look at games and say, how would the win probability change given our OL and backs with another play. Players like Jones are no doubt wonderful if the OL is doing great and if you're against a weak defense. Against a good defense that needs to be tired out or that stresses the OL a player like Edelman will increase the win probability delta more because of these secondary effects.

Or just watch some Edelman games. No player in the league does what he does. Did you see the 2014 Ravens Divisional game? Or his footwork in SBXLIX? Or the catch? It's unique what Edelman can do. There are lots of fast strong receivers in the league, not to the degree of Jones of course, and it's of a type that defensive coordinators and GMs are prepared for. Edelman is sui generis. They don't know what to do.

Like I said, all those White runs in SBLI accrue in part to Edelman both because

1. of his blocking and
2. his forcing the cover 1 robber (Jones doesn't force a robber).

If there's a Jones type on our offense and Brady throws a bunch of long passes, well for one thing it wouldn't work because our OL didn't give Brady enough time until the end - then we'd never have had our run at the end, because the Atlanta defense would never have been tired because of our short passes. And there'd be no cover 1 robber so we'd have less of a running game. So yes, without a doubt, had we had a Jones clone instead of Edelman in SBLI, we lose that, badly.

These Jones types rarely win SBs in the modern era for exactly that reason: they're brittle against top defenses.

Edelman in contrast single-handedly force the whole defense to change and then wear them down - all without necessarily catching many yards, which he also does.

So that's what you have to analyze. Not just "yards" (except for fantasy).

 

[Ring 6]

I am saying that to evaluate a player you have to look at the player's impact on the probability of the team winning a given game. That means you have to consider the defensive scheme, the effect of the defensive scheme, the effect on the defense of long passes versus short passes, the performance when the OL is not doing well, the blocking ability, and many other things. You cannot compare single metrics like "yards".

In other words you are going to have to look at games and say, how would the win probability change given our OL and backs with another play. Players like Jones are no doubt wonderful if the OL is doing great and if you're against a weak defense. Against a good defense that needs to be tired out or that stresses the OL a player like Edelman will increase the win probability delta more because of these secondary effects.

Or just watch some Edelman games. No player in the league does what he does. Did you see the 2014 Ravens Divisional game? Or his footwork in SBXLIX? Or the catch? It's unique what Edelman can do. There are lots of fast strong receivers in the league, not to the degree of Jones of course, and it's of a type that defensive coordinators and GMs are prepared for. Edelman is sui generis. They don't know what to do.

Like I said, all those White runs in SBLI accrue in part to Edelman both because of his blocking and his forcing the robber (Jones doesn't force a robber). If there's a Jones type on our offense and Brady throws a bunch of long passes, well for one thing it wouldn't work because our OL didn't give Brady enough time until the end - when the defense was tired because of our short passes. And there'd be no robber so we'd have less of a running game. These Jones types rarely win SBs in the modern era for exactly that reason: they're brittle against top defenses. Edelman will single-handedly force the whole defense to change and then wear them down - all without necessarily catching many yards.

So that's what you have to analyze. Not just "yards" (except for fantasy).

Jones puts a lot more pressure on a defense than Edelman. I'm. It sure where you get this idea that robber is some unusual defense created for Julian Edelman that opens up an offense. It literally is taking a free cover guy and disguising him. It does none of the things you think it does.
Yes Edelman can block so can many receivers including jones.
The 2014 playoff game vs Baltimore you bring up Edelman caught 8 passes for 74 yards. Jones has had 2 180+ yard 2 TD games in the playoffs.

Look I love Edelman too. I love how he plays the game. I dislike the diva WRs that are one dimensional and don't like to be hit. But a wide receivers primary job is to catch passes so you just can't dismiss production and then tout your argument by using unquantifiable criteria and making your guy the best ever.
It is ridiculous to say that a short pass receiver puts more stress on a defense, helps others, and loosens the running game more than a guy who is dangerous on every area of the field and a legitimate deep threat.

I hate being in the position of sounding negative about a guy like Edelman but calling him the best receiver in the NFL is insane.

 

[Ring 6]

It's kind of ridiculous how people are misusing statistics. Try watching the games more. This fantasy football mindset should not be infecting this forum.

Did it ever occur to you people that the main reason the Falcons were using the robber coverage in SBLI was because of Edelman? And that is why White succeeded. So White's yards were due in some part to Edelman: he had numerous crucial blocks for White, and he's attracting the robber. He's shifting the whole coverage around just for him.

That's just one of many examples where you can't compare "yards" to compare WRs. You have to look at things like how the WRs presence changes the defense and allows other plays, not to mention blocks.

Do me a favor. Please explain "robber coverage", how often Atlanta used it and how schematically it freed up white.

 

[Doctor DDS]

JE has assumed the extremely important possession receiver/chain mover role within the offense and has done a great job continuing the legacies set by Troy Brown and Wes Welker. We all love JE but to insinuate he is on the same level of JJ is nuts. JJ has nearly 5,000 receiving yards in the past 3 seasons and is one of the top 10 most talented players in the league.

Do not want to downplay/bash Edelman but does anyone doubt that Amendola can produce 80 catches and 800 yards in a similar role if he remains healthy? Much like the 3rd down RB, the role itself leads to a lot of the success - not just the player. If JJ goes down there is no one on the Falcons that could come close to replicating his numbers and presence on the field.

 

[Simpelton]

Julio Jones > Julian Edelman as a NFL WR

They really are not comparable. Edelman and Jones play very different roles. Neither is in any way exclusive to the other. In fact having both on the same team they would probably improve each other's game.

Edelman is an elite field position receiver who does his best work between the numbers. Jones is a go get it wideout that can beat a goal line defense like few others. Both need special attention from secondaries. Both do a lot of very good work making the lives of their quarterbacks easier.

They run different kinds of routes and take different targets in different situation and while there is a lot of overlap because they are both highly talented, they can both thrive on the same team easily.

 

[K. Dog]

Do me a favor. Please explain "robber coverage", how often Atlanta used it and how schematically it freed up white.

It was cover 1 robber or cover 1 lurker. So that's one guy in coverage at best not looking for the running backs. I have been meaning to analyze Edelman's blocks that help White's running plays for a while but haven't got around to it, I'm sure this forum would argue that Edelman's blocks don't matter.

 

[K. Dog]

Yes Edelman can block so can many receivers including jones.
The 2014 playoff game vs Baltimore you bring up Edelman caught 8 passes for 74 yards. Jones has had 2 180+ yard 2 TD games in the playoffs.

You are really looking way way too hard at meaningless statistics if you are seriously assessing Edelman's performance in that game by the passes he caught. Did you watch Edelman in that game? What is wrong with this place? You realize that was one of the most astounding plays in playoff history that you're completely ignoring?

I'm just talking to a wall, as always happens with these yards-counting guys.

But a wide receivers primary job is to catch passes so you just can't dismiss production and then tout your argument by using unquantifiable criteria and making your guy the best ever.

I didn't dismiss "production". But when you are assessing Edelman's performance in 2014 divisional v. Ravens by looking at "caught passes" which of us is dismissing production?

It is ridiculous to say that a short pass receiver puts more stress on a defense, helps others, and loosens the running game more than a guy who is dangerous on every area of the field and a legitimate deep threat.

Actually isn't it obvious that a short pass receiver puts more stress on the defense? I'm not sure what you're arguing about here, except that that if I argued there should be 11 players on the field on a side I'd have multiple people arguing with that too.

That said I'll bite. The Falcons defense was tired near the end of SBLI. Why? Because they had to run a lot of plays. Every time a play is run, the DL gets tired, the edge rushers get tired, everyone gets tired. The reason the defense had to run a lot of plays is the that Patriots plays were quite short. A lot of short plays is much, much more tiring on the defense than a single long play. Therefore, defending against a short passer who is making short catches is much more tiring than defending against a long passer.

If Brady starts throwing a bunch of long passes, he's either going to punt quickly or score quickly. Either way, it puts much less pressure on the defense than having players like Edelman there.

I hate being in the position of sounding negative about a guy like Edelman but calling him the best receiver in the NFL is insane.

This forum has been negative about Edelman for years actually. After SBXLIX I started a thread under a lost handle about his footwork in that replay TD, and even though he has the best footwork in the league, there were predictably a bunch of posters who argued "oh any receiver can do that." Normally it's a good thing: if Patriots fans are underestimating him, so are opposing coaches. At this juncture though it's just annoying. I literally can prove til I'm blue in the face that you cannot measure win probability delta by yards caught, and there are 5 posters who immediate talk about yards caught. What next, touchdowns? Pro Bowl nominations? Even in the single game in all history where yards caught is most obviously the wrong metric, 2014 divisional, and even after five posts patiently explaining all the ways Edelman helps without being measured in yards, the first thing someone does: oh he didn't have many yards caught in that game.

I hate to say this but I'm wondering if the fans deserve the Patriots at this point. Go chase after some guy with a lot of statistics, you can boast about his statistics while sitting out the playoffs like all the other teams do. Maybe sign OBJ and Freeman to big contracts, there's a winning duo for you.

Also no, there is no way Jones blocks as effectively as Edelman. He has a way of picking the key block and crushing it, not sure how.

 

[Ring 6]

It was cover 1 robber or cover 1 lurker. So that's one guy in coverage at best not looking for the running backs. I have been meaning to analyze Edelman's blocks that help White's running plays for a while but haven't got around to it, I'm sure this forum would argue that Edelman's blocks don't matter.

That isn't explaining robber or answering the question. Not trying to be a douche but I don't think you know what robber is. I think you heard it mentioned in the pick 6 and threw it in here to sound like you know what you are talking about.

When you actually explain what you think the coverage is, please also explain:

Why putting the free man into a "robber" role would affect coverage on a RB?
Who is the robber?
How many coverages are played where that man covers a RB?
Why do you think that robber makes it harder to defend the run?
Why would robber help a RB more than dedicating a deep safety over the top to jones, like the patriots did.
Why would having more defenders closer to the los open things up for a RB?

 

[Ring 6]

You are really looking way way too hard at meaningless statistics if you are seriously assessing Edelman's performance in that game by the passes he caught. Did you watch Edelman in that game? What is wrong with this place? You realize that was one of the most astounding plays in playoff history that you're completely ignoring?

Wait now you are judging his wr skills by the pass he threw?

I'm just talking to a wall, as always happens with these yards-counting guys.

Yards counting lol. How do you think he produces those yards? Do you dispute receiving production is a WRs primary job?

I didn't dismiss "production". But when you are assessing Edelman's performance in 2014 divisional v. Ravens by looking at "caught passes" which of us is dismissing production? I am saying there is more to "production" than one statistic.

Of course there is but with a wr catches yards and tds is the majority of the job.

The fact that it's "unquantifiable" doesn't mean it doesn't exist. It just means statistics on things like how the defensive scheme changes and how blocks are done are not as readily available. It doesn't mean they aren't important.

never said they weren't important I said you are reaching for them as a way of blurring the discussion.

Actually isn't it obvious that a short pass receiver puts more stress on the defense?

No. it's obvious that is wrong.

I'm not sure what you're arguing about here, except that that if I argued there should be 11 players on the field on a side I'd have multiple people arguing with that too.

No because then you wouldn't be wrong.

That said I'll bite. The Falcons defense was tired near the end of SBLI. Why? Because they had to run a lot of plays. Every time a play is run, the DL gets tired, the edge rushers get tired, everyone gets tired. The reason the defense had to run a lot of plays is the that Patriots plays were quite short.

This isn't true.

A lot of short plays is much, much more tiring on the defense than a single long play. Therefore, defending against a short passer who is making short catches is much more tiring than defending against a long passer.

So you think that the primary goal of offense is to run a lot of plays not succeed very much and make the defense tired? Really?

If Brady starts throwing a bunch of long passes, he's either going to punt quickly or score quickly. Either way, it puts much less pressure on the defense than having players like Edelman there.

This is bizarre and totally off topic

Let's bring it back. If a defense has to cover the entire field is that better for an offense than if they don't have to worry about 15+ yards?

This forum has been negative about Edelman for years actually. Normally it's a good thing: if Patriots fans are underestimating him, so are opposing coaches. At this juncture though it's just classless.

I'm not negative about Edelman at all.
I love him and are thrilled he is a patriot.
That doesn't mean I'm going to make stupid comments like he is the wr in the league.

 

[Bruins29]

This forum has been negative about Edelman for years actually. Normally it's a good thing: if Patriots fans are underestimating him, so are opposing coaches. At this juncture though it's just annoying.

Quite ironic coming from a poster who claims that this years Pats team does not have the cohesion nor intelligence of last years team.

I assume you knew this from all the time you spent in the locker room with the guys and out of the practice field at training camp.

Talk about annoying.

 

[bormio]

Edelman's blocking in the SB was superlative. 4 key blocks come to mind without even really looking at tape. The crack back on the game winning play, the block on Amendola's 2 pt, the cut block on the LB inside on White's rushing TD in the 4th and the downfield block on the swing pass to White in OT. It tells you all you need to know about his blocking that on the most important play of the year (the 2 pt), they ran a play with Edelman and Hogan as lead blockers.

 

[K. Dog]

Edelman's blocking in the SB was superlative. 4 key blocks come to mind without even really looking at tape. The crack back on the game winning play, the block on Amendola's 2 pt, the cut block on the LB inside on White's rushing TD in the 4th and the downfield block on the swing pass to White in OT. It tells you all you need to know about his blocking that on the most important play of the year (the 2 pt), they ran a play with Edelman and Hogan as lead blockers.

You're good! There's no way I could list that from memory, and I already made a list of key Edelman SBLI blocks somewhere that I was planning to turn into a post but never did. It's a pleasure to hear from someone who studies the game not the box score.

Why don't you take over explaining to the yard-counters why Edelman affects the win-probability of a Patriots team - the chance they win if he's on the field - in ways that can't be measured by counting "yards caught", if the task isn't too quixotic.

Also, I was never certain which of the blocks was truly critical - if Edelman hadn't made a good block, would it have affected the scoring? I thought so, in several of them, but could never really articulate an argument to prove it.

Not to mention, which of the league's prima donna receivers could or would make those blocks?

 

[PP2]

This offense moves through the slot/quick timing routes, which take advantage of pre-read mismatches, and usually come over the middle. It's the bread and butter, and has been for years.

It's almost certainly going to be Amendola, folks, so let's hope he can withstand a full season. The idea that we have a guy who was initially brought in to do all of those things but will be bubble-wrapped with a low snap total until the playoffs is asinine.

How do we make up for the responsibilities of Edelman? 60% comes from Amendola, with the other 40% coming from routes run by Mitchell, Cooks, and the RBs. If a guy like Burkhead, Foster, or even Carr can contribute more--all the better, but initially, I think they mainly stick with someone who not only knows the system well, but has effectively contributed in it at times.

The main concerns, of course, are the durability and fact that he's obviously not as quick coming off the line. Let's hope the OL holds up, the running game looks solid, and that they continue to work through this until the loss isn't as noticeable.

I would argue that if anyone's going to try to fill Edelman's shoes, it's going to be Hogan. He can line up at X, Y, and Z, whereas Amendola is strictly a slot guy which makes him more predictable. Where they used to shift Edelman onto the mismatch, they'll shift Hogan and build on the mismatch from there. At some point it may or may not be Cooks but Hogan has one year in the system so he's that much ahead, and the two TDs he had in the first game were in-route adjustments, preying on out of positions or badly leveraged DB's, so that's a good sign to me.