How does the Patriots offense change without Edelman?

[FCB02062]

Why 3 games?

Because I'm hoping they play 3 playoff games this season...after a bye week of course!
And I don't think the loss of Edelman will be TOO huge of a factor until the playoffs when you're facing, usually, the best defenses

 

[FCB02062]

So you're basically saying that the season is over, then? On to 2018?

No, simply saying third down will be more difficult, especially come playoff time, than if they had a healthy Edelman...

 

[Bruins29]

Edelman is ludicrous. He has great physical ability, extraordinary intelligence, played selflessly, and was eerily in sync with Brady. He's the best receiver in the league. .

I know that Ravens fans are slow but this is some real stupid stuff.

 

[Ring 6]

Because I'm hoping they play 3 playoff games this season...after a bye week of course!
And I don't think the loss of Edelman will be TOO huge of a factor until the playoffs when you're facing, usually, the best defenses

So you used 3 non playoff games after unexpectedly losing Edelman while also losing Lewis and solder and having a decimated OL to cull what will happen after they play 17 games with the current roster?

I'll just use that first game you used as an example.

3 of the 5 OL are gone.
Wr snaps
lafell. 48
Dobson 20
Harper 30

TE chandler 35 Williams 23

Blount had 36 snaps
White had 19
Bolden had 12

I agree if we also now lose cooks hogan Mitchell Lewis burkhead solder thuney Andrews allen and white reverts to 2015 white we will struggle on 3rd down.

 

[IllegalContact]

something tells me there will be more RB involvement in the passing game

 

[SalemPats]

IMHO, the acquisition of Cooks and Hogan being in his second year will have much of an effect on game planning (and the passing game) than the loss of Edelman.

The change in RB's may also have a large effect on planning the running game.

Yes, Edelman was very important to the office, but others (more then one) can pick up the slack in Edelman's various roles.

BOTTOM LINE
Brady will likely look to many more people on 3rd down.

I feel like White will play an even bigger role. It will be interesting to see who Brady goes to when he needs that 1st down in the 4th.

 

[BobDigital]

I feel like White will play an even bigger role. It will be interesting to see who Brady goes to when he needs that 1st down in the 4th.

White and Amendola I think. They have the safest hands on the team and are 2 of the most low risk options. However we may also see more shots taken on 3rd and short. They do it a little at times though they tend to like the safer conversation play. If that play is less safe maybe you are better off taking a few more 1v1 shots to Gronk or Cooks 40 yards down the field on 3rd and 5?

 

[FCB02062]

So you used 3 non playoff games after unexpectedly losing Edelman while also losing Lewis and solder and having a decimated OL to cull what will happen after they play 17 games with the current roster?

I'll just use that first game you used as an example.

3 of the 5 OL are gone.
Wr snaps
lafell. 48
Dobson 20
Harper 30

TE chandler 35 Williams 23

Blount had 36 snaps
White had 19
Bolden had 12

I agree if we also now lose cooks hogan Mitchell Lewis burkhead solder thuney Andrews allen and white reverts to 2015 white we will struggle on 3rd down.

there's no perfect comparison - look all you want, but you won't find one. Best comparison is how the team converted on third down with and without Edelman - fine, you want more games and to give the Pats "time to adjust" as they have this season - lets look at the 4 games immediately prior to his injury in '15 @Ind (5-12), Mia (3-12), Nyj (8-16) and Was (9-16) for 45% on third down...the four games after his injury AFTER a "two week adjustment period" are as follows - Phi (7-17), @Hou (7-16), Ten (7-16), and @ Nyj (1-10) for a total of 37%...
Seems like the #s go down without Edelman....

This is the best and most recent comparison...

 

[Kontradiction]

Amendola and Allen will both receive an uptick in targets and they may use Cooks on some of Edelman's underneath and intermediate routes. The biggest change will probably be more use of 20 personnel with two of White/Lewis/Burkhead on the field at the same time on obvious passing downs.

 

[SalemPats]

White and Amendola I think. They have the safest hands on the team and are 2 of the most low risk options. However we may also see more shots taken on 3rd and short. They do it a little at times though they tend to like the safer conversation play. If that play is less safe maybe you are better off taking a few more 1v1 shots to Gronk or Cooks 40 yards down the field on 3rd and 5?

I think DA has good hands, but since becoming a Patriot the main difference between him and Jules (or even Wes) is his ability to create space on his in routes to get those run after the catch yards. but he does make good catches in tight coverage

 

[Ring 6]

there's no perfect comparison - look all you want, but you won't find one.

Exactly

Best comparison is how the team converted on third down with and without Edelman - fine, you want more games and to give the Pats "time to adjust" as they have this season - lets look at the 4 games immediately prior to his injury in '15 @Ind (5-12), Mia (3-12), Nyj (8-16) and Was (9-16) for 45% on third down...the four games after his injury AFTER a "two week adjustment period" are as follows - Phi (7-17), @Hou (7-16), Ten (7-16), and @ Nyj (1-10) for a total of 37%...

Other than that last game it's 21/49 which is 43% compared to 45 and insignificant.
The points here though are
1) you are ignoring who was on the field
2) you are ignoring who is on the field now
3) 3rd down conversions out of context are a silly way to analyze. They can vary widely from game to game and have to be looked at in a long view to be meaningful.

Seems like the #s go down without Edelman....

Or they go down with a decimated OL and poor weapons at wr. You include a game where stork played LT LOL.

This is the best and most recent comparison...

No there is no best and most recent example because almost everything has changed.

 

[FCB02062]

Exactly


Other than that last game it's 21/49 which is 43% compared to 45 and insignificant.
The points here though are
1) you are ignoring who was on the field
2) you are ignoring who is on the field now
3) 3rd down conversions out of context are a silly way to analyze. They can vary widely from game to game and have to be looked at in a long view to be meaningful.




Or they go down with a decimated OL and poor weapons at wr. You include a game where stork played LT LOL.


No there is no best and most recent example because almost everything has changed.

you can't randomly drop items out of a sample and say "other than the last game"; this isn't a bell curve. The only reasonable comparison to of this offense with and without Edelman is the 2015 season. Since he became Brady's primary target and third down security blanket in 2013 he has only missed games that mattered in 2015. In 13 he played 16 games, in 14 he played 14 sitting out the last 2, the last of which was the Garapollo game vs Bufflo, and in 16 he played 16 games.
This is the reality, when making real world comparisons you don't say, oh but so and so wasn't on the field or this guy got hurt in the third quarter. So the only sample of this team without Edelman during which time Edelman was a focal point of the offense is the 2015 season. The statistics show that without Edelman the Patriots third down efficiency was considerably worse. Fact, not opinion...

 

[Ring 6]

you can't randomly drop items out of a sample and say "other than the last game"; this isn't a bell curve.

Well first of all you randomly chose them so surely I can randomly change them.
Secondly of course it is relevant it shows the problem actually only existed in one of the 4 games and the outlier is skewing your calculations.

The only reasonable comparison to of this offense with and without Edelman is the 2015 season.

No it isn't because it isn't THIS offense.

Since he became Brady's primary target and third down security blanket in 2013 he has only missed games that mattered in 2015. In 13 he played 16 games, in 14 he played 14 sitting out the last 2, the last of which was the Garapollo game vs Bufflo, and in 16 he played 16 games.
This is the reality, when making real world comparisons you don't say, oh but so and so wasn't on the field or this guy got hurt in the third quarter.

You are pretending he was the only difference which isn't close to true and are pretending the 2017 offense is the late season 2015 offense even though most of the players have changed.

So the only sample of this team without Edelman during which time Edelman was a focal point of the offense is the 2015 season. The statistics show that without Edelman the Patriots third down efficiency was considerably worse. Fact, not opinion...

While it may be a fact it is an ignorant citing of a fact as relevant to an entirely different situation.
Perhaps it was because Nate solder was out. I could make the exact same argument.
But then there is the fact we had to pull a 90 year old RB out of retirement we had a weak WR corps to begin with and we had an OL that was so decimated guys who should have been in IR were starting.

 

[Ring 6]

something tells me there will be more RB involvement in the passing game

Perhaps but does last year we had targets

Edelman 159
Hogan. 58
Mitchell. 48
Amendola 29
Floyd. 6

I can easily see hogan Mitchell and da getting more and cooks getting close to edelmans share

White had 86 last year and all RBs 124 so they were getting a lot to begin with. Plus Gronk is back.

 

[mgteich]

Perhaps but does last year we had targets

Edelman 159
Hogan. 58
Mitchell. 48
Amendola 29
Floyd. 6

I can easily see hogan Mitchell and da getting more and cooks getting close to edeknans share

White had 86 last year and all RBs 124 so they were getting a lot to begin with. Plus Gronk is back.

So, we have 165 targets to spread among
Gronk
Cooks
Mitchell and
Amendola

 

[Ring 6]

So, we have 165 targets to spread among
Gronk
Cooks
Mitchell and
Amendola

In addition to what they had last year except cooks.

Actually 238 because martysaurus had 73.

 

[IllegalContact]

Perhaps but does last year we had targets

Edelman 159
Hogan. 58
Mitchell. 48
Amendola 29
Floyd. 6

I can easily see hogan Mitchell and da getting more and cooks getting close to edeknans share

White had 86 last year and all RBs 124 so they were getting a lot to begin with. Plus Gronk is back.

I think there are plenty of ways to spread it out and mitigate the loss .... how it works out is a mystery, but the options are there from a talent perspective unless Brady feels he can't throw to them

 

[Brady_2_Moss]

Best receiver in the league?

I would take Edelman over any other WR in the league. You can't coach the kind of heart and grit he has.

 

[NG Pats Fan]

The single thing I find most disappointing about this forum is that so many posters here don't understand Edelman's greatness. Even since his injury I don't think a single person has mentioned that one of the key ways Edelman contributes is his blocking, which is critical.

The idea that any one player or group of players can replace Edelman is ludicrous. He has great physical ability, extraordinary intelligence, played selflessly, and was eerily in sync with Brady. He's the best receiver in the league. The best that can be hoped now that he's gone is not too big an increase in turnovers and maybe a spectacular defense.

Best receiver in the league? Is that a typo? If not Take off those homer glasses

 

[Love The Drake]

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