This is why the Patriots won't trade Jimmy G in 2017

[supafly]

Admittedly I didn't reach the ludicrous heights of user Pushing Pencils who guaranteed "Two 1st round picks" for Cassel. Epic!

I'm quickly pumping the brakes on the exact same idea with Garoppolo. Too many here are throwing around similar proposals. I hope they're right, but personally, I just don't see it. I will be happy with a first round pick--period.

 

[Love The Drake]

Were not trading him but if we were SF could be a sleeper option

 

[CutiePie]

the longer we go without a trade......

the more it looks like Jimmy G is the future of this franchise

amazing that we are gonna have our own rodgers/young

the rich get richer

 

[farn]

the longer we go without a trade......

the more it looks like Jimmy G is the future of this franchise

amazing that we are gonna have our own rodgers/young

the rich get richer

The probability of JG becoming a HoF candidate like those two other guys is very very low. I hope it's all posturing.

 

[supafly]

the longer we go without a trade......

the more it looks like Jimmy G is the future of this franchise

amazing that we are gonna have our own rodgers/young

the rich get richer

Just for kicks, how would you handle such a transition? I think that would be the million dollar question, and the biggest obstacle to keeping both.

No matter how you look at it, one of them is going to have to go by the end of the year. They can't afford to keep both.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yes, we see teams parting with the #1 overall pick in the draft for players like that all the time.

I think the context is important. I am fully aboard the boat that Garopollo is worth at least the first overall pick.

Teams give up huge amounts for quarterbacks who they know will be limited (Bradford), or quarterbacks who have zero NFL starts, coming out of school (Wentz, RGIII.). Quarterback means everything in today's NFL. Look at the deal Mike Glennon just got a hopeless player with almost no upside, and the context of the quarterback market brings Garoppollo's value into perspective.

Additionally, Garopollo's total evaluation is not limited to just six quarters. Coaches and scouts talk to each other a lot about player development. The Patriots know a lot more about Garopollo than six quarters of play; other teams surely have a decent read on the buzz. The Packers were ready to replace Farve with Rodgers based almost solely from what they saw in practice.

Drafting a QB appears to be a total crapshoot. Can't even list the number of first/second round QBs who were hyped over the last five years and are completely overmatched in the NFL. Meanwhile, the real "lottery ticket winners" appear to be Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, a third and fourth round pick. Any NFL experience, both in-game and/or in practice, should be considered valuable. Garopollo was clearly better than Cassell ever looked at any point during the 2008 season, not even debatable.

 

[supafly]

Garopollo was clearly better than Cassell ever looked at any point during the 2008 season, not even debatable.

Cassel led the team to an 11-5 record with back-to-back 400+ yard games where he threw 6 TDs and 1 INT during that stretch. The team scored 48 and 31 points in those two games. One of the games also saw him rush for 64 yards.

He also had another back-to-back game moment at the end of the season where the team scored 49 and 47 points. During those two games (weeks 15 and 16) he had a 7 TD to 1 INT ratio. More importantly, he proved good leadership as he helped the team get close to a postseason appearance by leading them to a 5-1 record over the last six games. That included winning the last 4 in a row to close the season out.

He had 7 games (almost half) where he had at least a 103.4 QB rating. To say that it's "not even debatable" would be awfully generous to Garoppolo's 1.5 games, and that's putting it mildly, to say the least.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Cassel led the team to an 11-5 record with back-to-back 400+ yard games where he threw 6 TDs and 1 INT during that stretch. The team scored 48 and 31 points in those two games. One of the games also saw him rush for 64 yards.

He also had another back-to-back game moment at the end of the season where the team scored 49 and 47 points. During those two games (weeks 15 and 16) he had a 7 TD to 1 INT ratio. More importantly, he proved good leadership as he helped the team get close to a postseason appearance by leading them to a 5-1 record over the last six games. That included winning the last 4 in a row to close the season out.

He had 7 games (almost half) where he had at least a 103.4 QB rating. To say that it's "not even debatable" would be awfully generous to Garoppolo's 1.5 games, and that's putting it mildly, to say the least.

Nice post. My perception is clearly different from reality. Maybe it was the drop off from 50:8 to 21:11 and the disappointment of finally getting to see Brady come to the Bay Area and instead being incredibly let down. I concede this point, that Cassell did come on strong at the end and played better than I remember, although his QB rating was roughly 30 points below Brady's the previous year with a very similar offense. I guess a lot of it is subjective..I just thought he never really looked the part and had some pretty big limitations.

 

[supafly]

Nice post. My perception is clearly different from reality. Maybe it was the drop off from 50:8 to 21:11 and the disappointment of finally getting to see Brady come to the Bay Area and instead being incredibly let down. I concede this point, that Cassell did come on strong at the end and played better than I remember, although his QB rating was roughly 30 points below Brady's the previous year with a very similar offense. I guess a lot of it is subjective..I just thought he never really looked the part and had some pretty big limitations.

I certainly agree with you that Cassel had obvious limitations, and I think we saw a lot more of that once he left and took over his own team(s).
I do think that the 2008 season showcased his strengths quite nicely though, and as dumb as it sounds now, there were a decent amount of posters and mediots who felt that he'd bring in multiple high round draft picks.

The same logic applied in terms of it being a QB-needy market, etc. Hell, some even called for him to replace Brady, and if I recall correctly, early 2009 was the period where Curran's (incorrect) story broke about Brady's future being in jeopardy. He had developed infections in his knee and many believed that the waters were murky in terms of his recovery time. There was lots of chatter about needing another surgery. As mentioned, some were concerned that he'd even return at all.

The fact that Belichick traded Cassel in early March during this time of uncertainty spoke volumes about his confidence in Brady and his ability to return, but I believe the situation may have actually helped drive the value of Cassel up even higher. Ultimately, we know how that turned out, as most of us were surprised and disappointed that he only brought back a 2nd. I think Garoppolo will definitely bring us more, but I'm not as sure as some regarding how much more that will be. Like I mentioned in another post, personally, I will be happy with a first round pick. Either way, I think we're in good hands, so that's all that matters. In the meantime, these debates help to pass the time of the offseason, and help to deal with 3 AM insomnia.

 

[Soliel]

I hate decisions like this. Id keep him as an ace in the hole and let him walk.

 

[DarrylS]

I think the franchise tag talk is an overreach, does anyone here believe that the highest salaried player on the pats will be a back up quarterback?? Allotting about 24 million on a backup seems to defy the economics of the Patriots.. even if they did that and they signed him long term his annual cost would exceed Brady's..

IMO they have a pretty good idea in what they have in Brissett, not putting him on IR was key.. I have had the same thought all along that Jimmy G is as good as gone, but not for a #1, but some combination of mid round #1 and a future #2's...

If they do get Cleveland's #12, I can see BB parlaying that pick into some combination of this years and future high round draft picks..

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Stop posting sense about JAG's franchise not gonna happen & his trade value. You're embarrassing the "he'll get us 2 #1s and more" crowd.

 

[sb1]

The probability of JG becoming a HoF candidate like those two other guys is very very low. I hope it's all posturing.

Yep. As I said before it is much more likely JG turns out to be a system QB than anything resembling a HOF candidate.

 

[sb1]

I'm quickly pumping the brakes on the exact same idea with Garoppolo. Too many here are throwing around similar proposals. I hope they're right, but personally, I just don't see it. I will be happy with a first round pick--period.

I'll be happy with a couple of seconds.

 

[XLIX]

Again, we presume that there is interest in garoppolo at least along the lines of osweiler or Glennon. Not sure why you think he would skip a season.
What I am saying is waiting and trying to franchise and trade him is a path filled with land mines.
If he is tagged for the purpose of trading it's a very real chance he won't sign it because that way he can control where he is traded.
If he is tagged to spend a 5th year as a backup I could easily see him holding out because he feels he is screwed.

No way he holds out into the season if he is tagged. His single game salary will be better than his best year of his original deal. It's too much money to flush down the drain.

 

[Ring 6]

No way he holds out into the season if he is tagged. His single game salary will be better than his best year of his original deal. It's too much money to flush down the drain.

I would imagine he uses the threat of the holdout as leverage for a trade and/or negotiating where he is traded to.
If that fails I'm sure he would show up and collect his 1.5 mill per game.

 

[XLIX]

I would imagine he uses the threat of the holdout as leverage for a trade and/or negotiating where he is traded to.
If that fails I'm sure he would show up and collect his 1.5 mill per game.

Ignoring the fact that you argued for weeks that teams can't discuss trades for players not under contract and now you're saying Garoppolo can get NE and some hypothetical 2nd team to discuss a trade for him when he would not be under contract... What good is a threat of a holdout when everyone knows you aren't going to go through with it?

If the Patriots franchise him, I expect a situation similar to what we are seeing with Butler right now. He will shop around to other teams, try to find someone who will pay him and pay the Patriots, but ultimately agree that if no deal is worked out, he will show up and play.

Of course, unlike Butler, for Garoppolo "show up and play" means being a $20+ million backup, not a $4 million starter. So it is the Patriots who would not want such a situation. Garoppolo shouldn't threaten a hold out, he should "threaten" to sign the franchise tender if offered.

 

[Ring 6]

Ignoring the fact that you argued for weeks that teams can't discuss trades for players not under contract and now you're saying Garoppolo can get NE and some hypothetical 2nd team to discuss a trade for him when he would not be under contract... What good is a threat of a holdout when everyone knows you aren't going to go through with it?

Teams cannot. His agent can.

I guess all those players who held out or threatened to over the years really intended to fit right with it.

If the Patriots franchise him, I expect a situation similar to what we are seeing with Butler right now. He will shop around to other teams, try to find someone who will pay him and pay the Patriots, but ultimately agree that if no deal is worked out, he will show up and play.

Pretty much what I said but if he doesn't sign the tender the patriots cannot trade him to whoever they want which is a critical part of the equation where he chooses his destination

Of course, unlike Butler, for Garoppolo "show up and play" means being a $20+ million backup, not a $4 million starter. So it is the Patriots who would not want such a situation. Garoppolo shouldn't threaten a hold out, he should "threaten" to sign the franchise tender if offered.

Signing removes all if his leverage.
That is the nuclear option though.
Garoppolo waits to sign the tag then does, refuses to negotiate with the team the patriots want to trade him to (I don't think any team will trade for a tagged QB without an extension in place) and the patriots have to either waste 24 mill or release him and get nothing.

This is somewhat uncharted territory so there are strange possibilities.

 

[XLIX]

I guess all those players who held out or threatened to over the years really intended to fit right with it.

I can't remember any players holding out in lieu of receiving $25 million guaranteed for one year.... Even Kirk Cousins, who is miserable in Washington, is taking the money.

Signing removes all if his leverage.
That is the nuclear option though.
Garoppolo waits to sign the tag then does, refuses to negotiate with the team the patriots want to trade him to (I don't think any team will trade for a tagged QB without an extension in place) and the patriots have to either waste 24 mill or release him and get nothing.

This is somewhat uncharted territory so there are strange possibilities.

That's why I said he shouldn't threaten to hold out (which doesn't really harm the Patriots) he should "threaten" to sign the tag and refuse all trades (which is precisely what they do not want).

 

[Ring 6]

I can't remember any players holding out in lieu of receiving $25 million guaranteed for one year.... Even Kirk Cousins, who is miserable in Washington, is taking the money.
That's why I said he shouldn't threaten to hold out (which doesn't really harm the Patriots) he should "threaten" to sign the tag and refuse all trades (which is precisely what they do not want).

If they do not want him to sign the tag they won't tag him