Predict Patrots 2010 record

[Brady2Welker]

As long as we win the AFCE and beat the Packers (I'll be flying out for that game) I'm happy.

 

[JR4]

.............. 13-3

 

[captain stone]

8 - 8

- The schedule is a killer;
- Seymour has yet to be replaced;
- Our OLBs, therefore our pass-rush, is a disgrace to the human race;
- Depth at DB is a mile wide, but an inch thick;
- There is nobody on the active roster proven as a Punt Returner,
unless you want to risk Kevin Faulk's health there;
- Our best OLman last year will not play for us this year;
- The rest of the OL (exc. for SeaBass) is another year older and another year worse,
with no replacements (maybe Ted Larsen?) on the horizon;
- Our RBs are another year older and (exc. for the ageless Kevin Faulk) another year worse,
and like the OL, no replacements on the horizon;
- Our WRs are either very old or very young but unproven;
and our best WR is < 8 months removed from major knee surgery;
- Our QB, who has taken a beating every game since the last SB appearance of his career, has lost what little mobility he once possessed; he now must stand in the pocket as a statue (or is it sitting duck?) behind an OL of "try-hard stiffs"...
...Because our HC/GM has made some very questionable decisions as both a HC and as a GM during the last 5 seasons, incl. de-emphasizing the running game at the expense of the health & safety of his best player.

Did I forget anything?

 

[Reckedtrek]

8 - 8

- The schedule is a killer;
- Seymour has yet to be replaced;
- Our OLBs, therefore our pass-rush, is a disgrace to the human race;
- Depth at DB is a mile wide, but an inch thick;
- There is nobody on the active roster proven as a Punt Returner,
unless you want to risk Kevin Faulk's health there;
- Our best OLman last year will not play for us this year;
- The rest of the OL (exc. for SeaBass) is another year older,
and another year worse, with no replacements (maybe Ted Larsen?) on the horizon;
- Our RBs are another year older,
and (exc. for the ageless Kevin Faulk) another year worse;
and like the OL, no replacements to be found;
- Our WRs are either very old or very young but unproven;
and our best WR is < 8 months removed from major knee surgery;
- Our QB, who has taken a beating every game since the last SB appearance of his career, has lost what little mobility he once possessed; he now must stand in the pocket as a statue (or is it sitting duck?) behind an OL of "try-hard stiffs"...
...Because our HC/GM has made some very questionable decisions as both a HC and as a GM during the last 5 seasons, incl. de-emphasizing the running game at the expense of the health & safety of the team's best player.

Did I forget anything?

Yeah- if at all that is true, how does the team manage 8 wins?

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

In the bag wins:
Week 3 vs Buffalo - no explanation needed, garbage football team
Week 9 at Cleveland - no explanation needed, garbage football team
Week 12 at Detroit - no explanation needed, garbage football team
Week 14 at Chicago - Jay Cutler isn't making the leap from mediocre gunslinger to legitimate QB in one year, especially with nearly no additions on offense. BB and the new corps of DBs will handle them easily.
Week 16 at Buffalo - no explanation needed, garbage football team

5-0

Divisional Games:
Week 2 at New York - This game depends entirely on how much Sanchez has progressed from this year to last. They still won't have Holmes, and if Shonn Greene gets off to a slow start they are toast come week 2. I think the Patriots take this game in that case but tempering my own expectations its wise to give this game to the Jets.
Week 4 vs Miami - Trying not to let homerism get the best of me but getting to play @ Miami early in the year is a huge advantage for us. The Dolphins don't get the advantage of a warm home game against a division rival late in the year. Patriots grab this one too capitalizing on the schedule advantage.
Week 13 vs New York - They went 8-0 at home last year and at this point Welker is definitely back. Pats win this one.
Week 17 vs Miami - Miami playing in Gillette in the cold of January, both teams possibly fighting for a playoff spot, clear advantage goes to New England provided that neither has wrapped up a playoff spot.

3-1

The Tough Ones:
Week 1 vs Cincinnati - I don't think they start 0-1 and the Bengals defense was unusually good last year. Regression to the mean on the defensive side on the ball and home field advantage for the Pats, easy choice to give them the win.
Week 6 vs Baltimore - Revenge? Yeah I think so. There's enough people left on the team from last year who will be waiting to jam it down there throat. Another win for the Pats. Also Terrence Cody is too fat to play football and Sergio Kindle can't walk down stairs.
Week 7 at San Diego - Yeah, this a long trip to lose a game. Probably going to be a painful loss, too.
Week 8 vs Minnesota - Back to back losses are rare in NE. It's happened twice in the past 8 years I think they can pull this one out.
Week 10 at Pittsburgh - The Steelers will probably be frantically making up ground to get a playoff spot and by this point Roethlisberger should be completely broken in from his suspension this late in the season. Mendenhall is a good back, and Mike Wallace should be a beast. Their defense is always pretty good and we have to play in their house. We're dropping this one.
Week 11 vs Indianappolis - I think we win this one. They made nothing but lateral moves in the offseason and had a so-so draft. They didn't beat us last year in their house, we beat ourselves and I don't think it happens twice in a row.
Week 15 vs Green Bay - They are a real, real good team. Aaron Rodgers is a top 5 QB, they have a good ground game, and a good defense. Probably no pulling this one out either.

4-3

I've got them at 12-4 based on that but that drops to 11-5 if Week 17 is a throwaway game.

 

[Ring 6]

In the bag wins:
Week 3 vs Buffalo - no explanation needed, garbage football team
Week 9 at Cleveland - no explanation needed, garbage football team
Week 12 at Detroit - no explanation needed, garbage football team
Week 14 at Chicago - Jay Cutler isn't making the leap from mediocre gunslinger to legitimate QB in one year, especially with nearly no additions on offense. BB and the new corps of DBs will handle them easily.
Week 16 at Buffalo - no explanation needed, garbage football team

5-0

Divisional Games:
Week 2 at New York - This game depends entirely on how much Sanchez has progressed from this year to last. They still won't have Holmes, and if Shonn Greene gets off to a slow start they are toast come week 2. I think the Patriots take this game in that case but tempering my own expectations its wise to give this game to the Jets.
Week 4 vs Miami - Trying not to let homerism get the best of me but getting to play @ Miami early in the year is a huge advantage for us. The Dolphins don't get the advantage of a warm home game against a division rival late in the year. Patriots grab this one too capitalizing on the schedule advantage.
Week 13 vs New York - They went 8-0 at home last year and at this point Welker is definitely back. Pats win this one.
Week 17 vs Miami - Miami playing in Gillette in the cold of January, both teams possibly fighting for a playoff spot, clear advantage goes to New England provided that neither has wrapped up a playoff spot.

3-1

The Tough Ones:
Week 1 vs Cincinnati - I don't think they start 0-1 and the Bengals defense was unusually good last year. Regression to the mean on the defensive side on the ball and home field advantage for the Pats, easy choice to give them the win.
Week 6 vs Baltimore - Revenge? Yeah I think so. There's enough people left on the team from last year who will be waiting to jam it down there throat. Another win for the Pats. Also Terrence Cody is too fat to play football and Sergio Kindle can't walk down stairs.
Week 7 at San Diego - Yeah, this a long trip to lose a game. Probably going to be a painful loss, too.
Week 8 vs Minnesota - Back to back losses are rare in NE. It's happened twice in the past 8 years I think they can pull this one out.
Week 10 at Pittsburgh - The Steelers will probably be frantically making up ground to get a playoff spot and by this point Roethlisberger should be completely broken in from his suspension this late in the season. Mendenhall is a good back, and Mike Wallace should be a beast. Their defense is always pretty good and we have to play in their house. We're dropping this one.
Week 11 vs Indianappolis - I think we win this one. They made nothing but lateral moves in the offseason and had a so-so draft. They didn't beat us last year in their house, we beat ourselves and I don't think it happens twice in a row.
Week 15 vs Green Bay - They are a real, real good team. Aaron Rodgers is a top 5 QB, they have a good ground game, and a good defense. Probably no pulling this one out either.

4-3

I've got them at 12-4 based on that but that drops to 11-5 if Week 17 is a throwaway game.

Are you sure you meant to say the GB defense that allowed 48 points to the Cardinals in the playoffs is good?

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

Are you sure you meant to say the GB defense that allowed 48 points to the Cardinals in the playoffs is good?

Yes. Arizona never had a problem scoring last year and teams can have bad days. The Packers should have been playing the Saints in the Championship game. They were transitioning to a 34 defense and had some hiccups with personnel like Aaron Kampman. They should be a lot better on the defensive side this year and ranked 7th in points allowed last year.

 

[thechris]

8 - 8

- The schedule is a killer;
- Seymour has yet to be replaced;
- Our OLBs, therefore our pass-rush, is a disgrace to the human race;
- Depth at DB is a mile wide, but an inch thick;
- There is nobody on the active roster proven as a Punt Returner,
unless you want to risk Kevin Faulk's health there;
- Our best OLman last year will not play for us this year;
- The rest of the OL (exc. for SeaBass) is another year older and another year worse,
with no replacements (maybe Ted Larsen?) on the horizon;
- Our RBs are another year older and (exc. for the ageless Kevin Faulk) another year worse,
and like the OL, no replacements on the horizon;
- Our WRs are either very old or very young but unproven;
and our best WR is < 8 months removed from major knee surgery;
- Our QB, who has taken a beating every game since the last SB appearance of his career, has lost what little mobility he once possessed; he now must stand in the pocket as a statue (or is it sitting duck?) behind an OL of "try-hard stiffs"...
...Because our HC/GM has made some very questionable decisions as both a HC and as a GM during the last 5 seasons, incl. de-emphasizing the running game at the expense of the health & safety of his best player.

Did I forget anything?

Offense is going to struggle this year. 8-8 maybe 9-7 if we get lucky.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes. Arizona never had a problem scoring last year and teams can have bad days. The Packers should have been playing the Saints in the Championship game. They were transitioning to a 34 defense and had some hiccups with personnel like Aaron Kampman. They should be a lot better on the defensive side this year and ranked 7th in points allowed last year.

We ranked 5th and everyone here thinks we sucked.
I'm not at all sold on the Packers. I think they are overrated because they are good fantasy football players.

 

[Nikolai]

11-5
4-2 in the division (splits with the Jets and Dols)
1st in the AFCE
2nd seed

Losses:
Jets
Dolphins
Ravens
Packers
Chargers

 

[the wrothbroughterer]

We ranked 5th and everyone here thinks we sucked.
I'm not at all sold on the Packers. I think they are overrated because they are good fantasy football players.

We can get away with being that high but still sucking because we have the best coach in the NFL and he can keep us in games with personnel that otherwise wouldn't be able to do so.

 

[eternal]

9-7 to many rookie and 2nd year players in critical roles.....it's 2002 all over again.

Sunday, Sept. 12 Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS win
Sunday, Sept. 19 @ New York Jets 4:15 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS loss
Sunday, Sept. 26 Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS win
Monday, Oct. 4 @ Miami Dolphins 8:30 p.m. ET WCVB ESPN loss
Sunday, Oct. 10 BYE
Sunday, Oct. 17 Baltimore Ravens 1:00 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS loss
Sunday, Oct. 24 @ San Diego Chargers 4:15 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS loss
Sunday, Oct. 31 Minnesota Vikings 4:15 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS win
Sunday, Nov. 7 @ Cleveland Browns 1:00 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS win
Sunday, Nov. 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8:20 p.m. ET WHDH NBC win
Sunday, Nov. 21 Indianapolis Colts 4:15 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* loss
Thursday, Nov. 25 @ Detroit Lions 12:30 p.m. ET WBZ-TV CBS win
Monday, Dec. 6 New York Jets 8:30 p.m. ET WCVB ESPN loss
Sunday, Dec. 12 @ Chicago Bears 1:00 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* win
Sunday, Dec. 19 Green Bay Packers 8:20 p.m. ET * WHDH * NBC* loss
Sunday, Dec. 26 @ Buffalo Bills 1:00 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS* win
Sunday, Jan. 2 Miami Dolphins 1:00 p.m. ET * WBZ-TV * CBS win

 

[Patriot Missile]

Way too early like many have mentioned. Unless BB has another grand plan to make this defense better I'd say this is looking like a 9-7 team. I don't like the Jet's or Dolphins chances either though.

Again, this is way too early to be making any predictions without seeing the players and coaches on the field performing their duties.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Please stop with the 5th ranked defense nonsense. I'm sure our defense in 01 was ranked pretty poorly compared to last years squad. I think I'd take 01 any day, thanks. Rankings can be skewed in a big way when it comes to stats. Our defense played well against bad to average offenses, but when it really mattered against good to excellent teams they weren't stopping anybody. Why run it in when you can just throw it. 3rd and does it matter? Those were glaring weaknesses. Not so much the pass russh as some may think, but definately a piece of the pie.

By no means did the defense suck last season. It just wasn't championship caliber as many have come to admire in New England from 03 to 06 (minus the one worst offciated game}

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

12-4 = delusional

This team has stayed the same for the most part [except for draft picks, but everyone has draft picks, so it evens out]. In the NFL, staying the same usually means you are not as good the following year.

So, to me, the Pats are 9-7/8-8.

 

[Patspsycho]

12-4 = delusional

This team has stayed the same for the most part [except for draft picks, but everyone has draft picks, so it evens out]. In the NFL, staying the same usually means you are not as good the following year.

So, to me, the Pats are 9-7/8-8.

Not any more delusional than your coach is.

 

[Rex Ryan's Gut]

Not any more delusional than your coach is.

I know you are but what am I?

 

[Sciz]

12-4 = delusional

This team has stayed the same for the most part [except for draft picks, but everyone has draft picks, so it evens out]. In the NFL, staying the same usually means you are not as good the following year.

So, to me, the Pats are 9-7/8-8.

Except the Patriots aren't the same. They have 12 second year players. They're the ones that tend to improve the most from one season to the next. There's 12 new rookies that have a chance to contribute. Also, it's not every year that 5 of your most important players are beat up. That's exactly what it was last season, with Brady, Moss, Wilfork, Mayo, and Warren all hurt. That won't happen again. It's also not every season that you are 2-5 in games decided by a score or less. That will not happen again either.

 

[Deus Irae]

QB - should be better
RB - depends on health. If Taylor isn't lost early, it should be better
WR - Should be better if Welker is back at or near 100%.
TE - unknown
OL - With Mankins back, it should be better. Without him, it's an unknown

DL - It's really the RDE spot, and it's an unknown
ILB - Should be much better
OLB - Unknown
CB - should be better
S - should be better

There are no definite step-back positions. The team was 10-6 last year. It doesn't make any real sense to expect it to be much worse than that. How that stacks up to the schedule, naturally, depends upon the other teams, but here's a preliminary take:


The schedule is very difficult, but pretty favorable, in that most of the tough non-divisional games (based upon last year's records and this year's expectations) are at home:

Bengals
Ravens
Vikings
Colts
Packers

compared to the away schedule:

Chargers
Browns
Steelers
Lions
Bears

Matched up against the Jets and the differences are Colts/Texans at home and Chargers/Broncos on the road. The Dolphins face MIN, GB, CIN, BAL and OAK on the road, with PIT, TEN, CHI, CLE, DET at home. The Dolphins seem to have the toughest road in terms of game locations.

I don't like the 3 weeks after the bye (home for Ravens, West coast for Chargers, Midwest for Vikings), but after that it becomes a much easier travel schedule. The Jets, meanwhile, face a December of @NE, MIA, @PIT, @Chi. Miami's west coast trip is sandwiched between home games against and Cleveland, so that shouldn't be a problem, but they have a stretch in the middle of the season where they go @GB, PIT, @CIN, @BAL, TEN. This probably gives the Jets the most difficult single stretch of the 3 teams.

I see the Jets and Dolphins more likely than the Patriots to lose 'fatigue' games to bad teams. I see the Patriots the least likely of the 3 teams to sweep the "different" games (SD/IND v. HOU/DEN and OAK/TEN).

In the end, assuming Brady's health, Welker at 90% or so, improved production from WR3 and Mayo being better on that knee, I expect the Patriots to at least match last season's record and win the division.*



Naturally, I reserve the right to change my prediction at any point up until the start of game 1.

 

[JonVaughnTD]

12-4

Trying to pick individual game wins and losses this point is pretty useless.