We're on to the OFF-Season

[upstater1]

The first step is officially done with bob back, that was the easy part.

Now the tougher work comes. Resign jon jones, splash trade for a go to wr (hop, evans, jeudy, higgins, aiyuk), splash signing at lb (edmunds?), draft ot/cb. We have the cap space and draft capital to accomplish this.

I definitely do not want Mike Evans. I think he's wildly overrated

 

[Lagaffe_07]

After seeing the Dolphins and Bills flame out in the playoffs, I'm encouraged for our chance to compete in the division next year.

I admire your confidence but I don’t share it though.

The Patriots are 3-10 against those teams the last 3 years. Those wins are:

- 1st game of Cam
- Blizzard game in Buffalo
- Bridgewater/Thompson

The Patriots haven’t proved they can beat Tua in 3 years.

the Jets are a QB away from being very dangerous. They have drafted well the last few years outside of Wilson and they will get another good pick this year for a team that is arguably already more talented than us.

 

[turkeyneck]

I definitely do not want Mike Evans. I think he's wildly overrated

And over the hill. He's good now and then but seems to be sliding down the steep backside of his career.

 

[mgteich]

We need an OL coach and an OC who can handle the situation of coming into a playoff game starting an OL with

1) one healthy starter
2) a limping starting center who decided to tough it out and play (an OK talent named Karras)
3) a player who started ONE game this year
4) a player who started ZERO games this year
5) a second player who started ZERO games this year

The CIN Offense is a big play passing Offense. The coaches were up to the task of revamping their Offense to deal with the situation, and to destroy a team that many thought was going to win the SB.
========
For that coaching staff, it was NOT simply "next man up". They actually coached, at the very highest level.
==========
Well, we now have a top OC, play-caller and QB coach familiar with our QB. Now we need a top OL coach.

 

[venecol]

After seeing the Dolphins and Bills flame out in the playoffs, I'm encouraged for our chance to compete in the division next year.
I'd love to see BOB commit to the fullest capacity of our WR's (Meyers, Parker, Bourne, Thornton + FA/Draft) and let Agholor walk.
And really maximize the potential of Henry + Smith.
I honestly think Meyers will be one of the first 2 UFA's re-signed here. (along with J. Jones)

Dolphins were competitive w/ their 3rd string QB. Not sure how that's a good sign. Bills are good at beating up teams that lack talent. It won't be any easier.

 

[upstater1]

I admire your confidence but I don’t share it though.

The Patriots are 3-10 against those teams the last 3 years. Those wins are:

- 1st game of Cam
- Blizzard game in Buffalo
- Bridgewater/Thompson

The Patriots haven’t proved they can beat Tua in 3 years.

the Jets are a QB away from being very dangerous. They have drafted well the last few years outside of Wilson and they will get another good pick this year for a team that is arguably already more talented than us.

If Tua plays next year, it will be his last with Miami, because he should be in contract talks with them right now. Instead, the Phins will be crazy to commit to him. By the time they figure out his situation, they'll run into another problem. Waddle will be at the end of his 3rd year, and if he's anything like AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, or the other young WRs looking for big money, they'll need to sign him for $20+, which presents them with the prospect of paying $45m+ a year to 2 WRs without a QB.

This team is built to crumble and they've traded away picks for Bradley Chubb and they lost their 1st rounder in the Brady thing. They just fired their DC who I thought did a credible job.

 

[PatsFan2]

After seeing the Dolphins and Bills flame out in the playoffs, I'm encouraged for our chance to compete in the division next year.
I'd love to see BOB commit to the fullest capacity of our WR's (Meyers, Parker, Bourne, Thornton + FA/Draft) and let Agholor walk.
And really maximize the potential of Henry + Smith.
I honestly think Meyers will be one of the first 2 UFA's re-signed here. (along with J. Jones)

Mac can't blame Fat Matt this time around I am sure if he stinks it up again he'll be Benched!

 

[mgteich]

I expect Bill to take FULL responsibility for what happened to the offense this year on offense and I expect him to fix it, because that is what he's done for the last 22 years here.

I disagree with the first part and agree with the second.

Do you think that Bill will really take full responsibility for not stepping in after the camp and pre-season experiments on the OL? Will Bill really take full take full responsibility for not doing what every great executive does, step in and be hands on when a part of the organization is failing?

I disagree with your historical analysis. I do NOT think that Bill publicly takes personal blame for past decisions. And that's fine with me.

Rather, Belichick analyzes the current situation, makes needed changes and moves forward.

 

[Ring 6]

I disagree with the first part and agree with the second.

Do you think that Bill will really take full responsibility for not stepping in after the camp and pre-season experiments on the OL? Will Bill really take full take full responsibility for not doing what every great executive does, step in and be hands on when a part of the organization is failing?

I disagree with your historical analysis. I do NOT think that Bill publicly takes personal blame for past decisions. And that's fine with me.

Rather, Belichick analyzes the current situation, makes needed changes and moves forward.

He has taken full responsibility for every thing in the organization since he arrived. What has he ever not taken full responsibility for.

 

[patfanken]

I disagree with the first part and agree with the second.

Do you think that Bill will really take full responsibility for not stepping in after the camp and pre-season experiments on the OL? Will Bill really take full take full responsibility for not doing what every great executive does, step in and be hands on when a part of the organization is failing?

I disagree with your historical analysis. I do NOT think that Bill publicly takes personal blame for past decisions. And that's fine with me.

Rather, Belichick analyzes the current situation, makes needed changes and moves forward.

In the end it's just two different slants on what's basically the same take.

If the plan all along was to use Patricia/Judge as a holding action until BOB was free, as I believe it was, then last season they took a swing at this unorthodox plan and ENTIRELY missed. If the plan was BOB all along, it was kind of bad luck that when Josh left he stripped the Pats of 2 other offensive coaches along with himself, leaving the Pats left with what's left. Its not like they could've gotten some outsider to come in for just one year. No one would have done that. So they were left with what they had left (Patricia, Judge, Caley, TBrown and Yates) They THEN had to make do with that combination.....and it didn't work at all. So when you swing and miss, you get back up to the plate and hope to do better with plan B.....or plan BOB

So Bill will get killed by the media and as the boss it is rightly so. We both know Bill won't complain (or rather won't give a 2nd thought). In the end the result was coming within a game of the playoffs and having the guy Bill wanted all along in for the job.

We can all wonder if Bill had simply by passed BOB and gone with another long term OC candidate in 2022 for the O's future. It might have been the better choice, but since no can tell the future it's kind of moot. Anyways, long term for a successful OC is about 3 years these days since successful OC's get snatched up fast. I'm guessing BOB's commitment is 2 years, maybe 3 assuming the offense takes a step forward.

I suspect the Pats offense will get better next year, BUT so will every team. The division and conference has a lOT of good teams, almost all of them with great potential. So simply improving the offense is no guarantee of playoff success.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

I suspect the Pats offense will get better next year, BUT so will every team.

Let's compare the Pats and the Bills in terms of cap, free agents, draft picks and I believe the potential for the Pats to improve is greater than for the Bills, even aside from our projected improvd coaching.

Draft: Pats have 11 picks (8 their own plus 3 comps) - value 975 (7th highest in League)
Bills have 6 picks (and pick lower) - value 650

NFL Draft Power Rankings | Tankathon

Power Rankings based on the position of each team's current picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

www.tankathon.com

Pats: Effective cap space for Pats $28.6m
Bills: Effective cap negative $22m

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

NFL salary cap space estimates for all 32 teams

overthecap.com

Free agents:
Pats:

• WR Nelson Agholor
• CB Myles Bryant
• OT Yodny Cajuste
• RT Marcus Cannon
• LS Joe Cardona
• DT Carl Davis
• FS Cody Davis
• C James Ferentz
• RB Damien Harris
• CB Jonathan Jones
• FS Devin McCourty
• OT Conor McDermott
• ILB Raekwon McMillan
• WR Jakobi Meyers
• S Jabrill Peppers
• WR Matthew Slater
• CB Joejuan Williams
• LB Mack Wilson
• OT Isaiah Wynn

(so two potential big losses in Meyers and Jones).

Bills:

• OG Ike Boettger
• WR Jamison Crowder
• LB Tremaine Edwards
• OT Bobby Hart
• S Jaquan Johnson
• RB Taiwan Jones
• QB Case Keenum
• LB A.J. Klein
• WR Jake Kumerow
• DE Shaq Lawson
• S Dean Marlowe
• P Sam Martin
• LB Tyler Matakevich
• OT Justin Murray
• DT Jordan Phillips
• S Jordan Poyer
• OG David Quessenberry
• OG Rodger Saffold
• RB Devin Singletary
• TE Tommy Sweeney
• OG Greg Van Roten

Restricted free agents:

• LB Tyler Dodson
• CB Dane Jackson
• CB Cam Lewis

 

[venecol]

Let's compare the Pats and the Bills in terms of cap, free agents, draft picks and I believe the potential for the Pats to improve is greater than for the Bills, even aside from our projected improvd coaching.

Draft: Pats have 11 picks (8 their own plus 3 comps) - value 975 (7th highest in League)
Bills have 6 picks (and pick lower) - value 650

NFL Draft Power Rankings | Tankathon

Power Rankings based on the position of each team's current picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

www.tankathon.com

Pats: Effective cap space for Pats $28.6m
Bills: Effective cap negative $22m

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

NFL salary cap space estimates for all 32 teams

overthecap.com

Free agents:
Pats:

• WR Nelson Agholor
• CB Myles Bryant
• OT Yodny Cajuste
• RT Marcus Cannon
• LS Joe Cardona
• DT Carl Davis
• FS Cody Davis
• C James Ferentz
• RB Damien Harris
• CB Jonathan Jones
• FS Devin McCourty
• OT Conor McDermott
• ILB Raekwon McMillan
• WR Jakobi Meyers
• S Jabrill Peppers
• WR Matthew Slater
• CB Joejuan Williams
• LB Mack Wilson
• OT Isaiah Wynn

(so two potential big losses in Meyers and Jones).

Bills:

• OG Ike Boettger
• WR Jamison Crowder
• LB Tremaine Edwards
• OT Bobby Hart
• S Jaquan Johnson
• RB Taiwan Jones
• QB Case Keenum
• LB A.J. Klein
• WR Jake Kumerow
• DE Shaq Lawson
• S Dean Marlowe
• P Sam Martin
• LB Tyler Matakevich
• OT Justin Murray
• DT Jordan Phillips
• S Jordan Poyer
• OG David Quessenberry
• OG Rodger Saffold
• RB Devin Singletary
• TE Tommy Sweeney
• OG Greg Van Roten

Restricted free agents:

• LB Tyler Dodson
• CB Dane Jackson
• CB Cam Lewis

I don't see Allen, Diggs, Davis, Knox, Dawkins, Milano, Jones, Oliver, Von Miller, Rousseau, Hyde, White on the free agent list. Those guys are all play makers. They just need to re-sign Poyer and Edmunds. Cooks can replace Singletary. Jackson & Lawson are the only other players w/ >43% snaps. Saffold sucks.

They still have more talent than the Pats before FA/draft.

 

[patfanken]

Let's compare the Pats and the Bills in terms of cap, free agents, draft picks and I believe the potential for the Pats to improve is greater than for the Bills, even aside from our projected improvd coaching.

Draft: Pats have 11 picks (8 their own plus 3 comps) - value 975 (7th highest in League)
Bills have 6 picks (and pick lower) - value 650

NFL Draft Power Rankings | Tankathon

Power Rankings based on the position of each team's current picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

www.tankathon.com

Pats: Effective cap space for Pats $28.6m
Bills: Effective cap negative $22m

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

NFL salary cap space estimates for all 32 teams

overthecap.com

Free agents:
Pats:

• WR Nelson Agholor
• CB Myles Bryant
• OT Yodny Cajuste
• RT Marcus Cannon
• LS Joe Cardona
• DT Carl Davis
• FS Cody Davis
• C James Ferentz
• RB Damien Harris
• CB Jonathan Jones
• FS Devin McCourty
• OT Conor McDermott
• ILB Raekwon McMillan
• WR Jakobi Meyers
• S Jabrill Peppers
• WR Matthew Slater
• CB Joejuan Williams
• LB Mack Wilson
• OT Isaiah Wynn

(so two potential big losses in Meyers and Jones).

Bills:

• OG Ike Boettger
• WR Jamison Crowder
• LB Tremaine Edwards
• OT Bobby Hart
• S Jaquan Johnson
• RB Taiwan Jones
• QB Case Keenum
• LB A.J. Klein
• WR Jake Kumerow
• DE Shaq Lawson
• S Dean Marlowe
• P Sam Martin
• LB Tyler Matakevich
• OT Justin Murray
• DT Jordan Phillips
• S Jordan Poyer
• OG David Quessenberry
• OG Rodger Saffold
• RB Devin Singletary
• TE Tommy Sweeney
• OG Greg Van Roten

Restricted free agents:

• LB Tyler Dodson
• CB Dane Jackson
• CB Cam Lewis

A couple of questions; A couple of comments

On the the "over the cap" graphic, what do the #'s indicate? Is it the people under contract (seems high)

What is the difference between "cap space" and "effective cap space"?

The Pats seem to have enough cap space for ONE first day guy and ONE first week guy. Then have enough to sign 2 or 3 more "later in the process guy. It looks like there are a few 'quality' NFL starters available but no "sure thing studs". I'm good with that, but we WILL have to overpay a bit to get one. It will be a buyers market.

The fact that JMeyers might be the top WR available kind of shows how weak that position group is. My guess the Pats will try a team friendly deal off to Meyers, but will encourage him to test the market and give them a shot to match. I think he's gone and the team that signs him will pay #2 money for a #3 or 4 receiver. Good for him. He worked hard to get to this position.

As to the other Pats FA, I'd target JJones, McMillian, and Peppers, while looking to keep Cajuste, Wilson, Williams (you can't coach size at CB), Davis, and Cardonna on 1-3MM kind of deals I'd LOVE to have Harris back. He is a REALLY good RB. BUT he's become kind of a luxury with Stevenson being a clear #1 with KHarris and Strong in the wings

Finally, 11 draft picks are simply TOO many. Drafting 11 guys in April kind of assures that 4or 5 are sure cuts. SO I'm hoping that at 3 of these picks are used a trade assets to move up or traded to another year.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

Let's compare the Pats and the Bills in terms of cap, free agents, draft picks and I believe the potential for the Pats to improve is greater than for the Bills, even aside from our projected improvd coaching.

Draft: Pats have 11 picks (8 their own plus 3 comps) - value 975 (7th highest in League)
Bills have 6 picks (and pick lower) - value 650

NFL Draft Power Rankings | Tankathon

Power Rankings based on the position of each team's current picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

www.tankathon.com

Pats: Effective cap space for Pats $28.6m
Bills: Effective cap negative $22m

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

NFL salary cap space estimates for all 32 teams

overthecap.com

Free agents:
Pats:

• WR Nelson Agholor
• CB Myles Bryant
• OT Yodny Cajuste
• RT Marcus Cannon
• LS Joe Cardona
• DT Carl Davis
• FS Cody Davis
• C James Ferentz
• RB Damien Harris
• CB Jonathan Jones
• FS Devin McCourty
• OT Conor McDermott
• ILB Raekwon McMillan
• WR Jakobi Meyers
• S Jabrill Peppers
• WR Matthew Slater
• CB Joejuan Williams
• LB Mack Wilson
• OT Isaiah Wynn

(so two potential big losses in Meyers and Jones).

Bills:

• OG Ike Boettger
• WR Jamison Crowder
• LB Tremaine Edwards
• OT Bobby Hart
• S Jaquan Johnson
• RB Taiwan Jones
• QB Case Keenum
• LB A.J. Klein
• WR Jake Kumerow
• DE Shaq Lawson
• S Dean Marlowe
• P Sam Martin
• LB Tyler Matakevich
• OT Justin Murray
• DT Jordan Phillips
• S Jordan Poyer
• OG David Quessenberry
• OG Rodger Saffold
• RB Devin Singletary
• TE Tommy Sweeney
• OG Greg Van Roten

Restricted free agents:

• LB Tyler Dodson
• CB Dane Jackson
• CB Cam Lewis

Poyer and Edwards would look really good in New England.

I think there is a small possibility that the Pats can pass the Bills next season as the Bills get worse while the Pats get better in the offseason. I expect the gap between the two teams to decrease this season. Bills probably won't get worse than this past year but it's going to be hard for them to be better with their cap issues.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

On the the "over the cap" graphic, what do the #'s indicate? Is it the people under contract (seems high)

What is the difference between "cap space" and "effective cap space"?

The effective cap space is what you get based on players already under contract and after you also sign your rookie class and enough other cheap players to get to 51. It's not a realistic number, but here we are just using it to compare teams.

Miguel has a different take, but can't compare across teams. His current cap space is $34.2m - but that's not a full roster.

Finally, 11 draft picks are simply TOO many. Drafting 11 guys in April kind of assures that 4or 5 are sure cuts. SO I'm hoping that at 3 of these picks are used a trade assets to move up or traded to another year.

Yes - I assume they'll trade some to move up or stockpile something for next year (which is going to be lighter on comp picks). But they might need a punter and maybe a kicker which would change the numbers.

They still have more talent than the Pats before FA/draft.

Yes, but my point is more about the direction each team is going. The Bills likely get a little worse or tread water for one more year. The Pats should definitely improve their roster.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

BoB going to love Jonnu Smith in this role:

 

[Hammer of Thor]

BoB going to love Jonnu Smith in this role:

I feel like this is what their intention was when they got rid of Jakob Johnson and moving away from a traditional fullback. I didn’t see much of it last year though; there were some plays with Jonnu coming out of the backfield but I don’t recall it being consistently used and don’t recall much motion as a part of it. Might have been scrapped when the other changes didn’t work out.

Got to hope Jonnu can block well enough in this role to really make it successful. He did better this year on that front compared to 2021 but not as consistent as I’d like.

 

[TheRainMaker]

The Bills D was on the ropes with a 3rd string QB and finally got K'O'd at home against the Bengals. Bills D is built like the Pats, beats up on bad teams but gets their azz kicked by good teams. This is essentially the same D that was getting owned by an aging Pats team with Tom and company. Beane better start drafting better or the Bills will continue to crash and burn in the playoffs.

 

[Sciz]

BoB going to love Jonnu Smith in this role:

I wonder if they’ll want somebody bigger. That guy has 10 pounds on Jonnu, and he’s only in college. Could be like 2010 when they used Crumpler in addition to Gronk and Hernandez.

 

[Wozzy]

No, you can become one of the highest paid TEs because a team desperate for TE production after they f*cked up the TE drafts, will over pay for free agents. That's exactly what happened.

Even if one of their mid round TE’s worked out they’d still have signed one or both free agent TE’s they did. They roster three and got rid of the FB position. Drafted TE’s have a ridiculous failure rate on every team. That’s exactly what happened. They had money to spend because they cleared cap space in 2020, because they were smart. If the Pats didn’t pay Henry another team would have. The market determines worth.

We made the playoffs and got blown out by our division rival. That was with good coaching. Coaching didn't matter. We lacked talent to compete against teams w/ elite players. We still do. Coaches coach, players win games.

Tom Brady lost this season because of coaching, so did the Pats. The Jags and Giants won because of coaching. You need both… guys like you always say we have no talent. We had no talent in 2014, 2016 or 2018 either… you’re a one note wonder on that flute.

Nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody has ever said that it doesn't take a team, because duh, it’s a team sport. The team includes coaches. Your problem is believing that the coaches are 60% responsible for wins and that good coaching can overcome lack of elite talent. It can't. Using the dynasty years as examples is no longer applicable because we don't have an elite QB. Until Bill stops ****ing around w/ players like Tavai, none of these results will change.

This is the problem, you guys are always here telling us Bill stumbled and bumbled his way into 6 rings… something nobody else but Chuck Noll has approached… but Bill is the luckiest SOB in history… sounds legit.