Trade up now or wait

[Lansdowne]

Some interesting observations over at NFL.com

Bucky Brooks had a very outside-the-box mock draft

Bucky Brooks 2021 NFL mock draft 2.0: Jets pass on QBs in favor of Penei Sewell at No. 2

In his second mock of the 2021 NFL Draft, Bucky Brooks has the Jets passing on the quarterbacks at No. 2 and the Buccaneers landing Tom Brady's heir apparent at No. 32. Check out the full first-round projection.

www.nfl.com

Gil Brandt ranked his top 100 prospects, and only 6 of them are quarterbacks

Gil Brandt's Hot 100, 1.0: Top prospects in 2021 NFL Draft class

Gil Brandt ranks the top 100 prospects in the 2021 NFL Draft Class. Can anyone top Trevor Lawrence? Where does Kyle Pitts sit? How does Justin Fields fit among QBs?

www.nfl.com

 

[Turkamu]

Alternative Scenario. We trade 15 to SF for JG and their Second Round Pick (43). SF then trades #15 & #12 to MIA for Pick #3.
While i guess the scenario in trading up for a QB is what most people want, BB usually prefers veterans over rookies. Also, if the reports are true, BB wanted to keep JG over Brady. Don't underestimate the pride of Bill, he wants to proof to everyone that he was right.

 

[farn]

I might chuckle a bit when the first round ends & NE didn’t choose a QB.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Could be that the GM of the NEP is quite content to have Cam Newton as the starter this season and is surrounding him with enough quality at skill positions to assuage the shortcomings he displayed last season. That being said, I think it's quite possible that Kyle Pitts is on the NEP radar. A generational talent that steps in day one.. Given the questions surrounding the QB's after picks 1 and 2, it'd be pure Belechick to grab a QB in the 2nd round.

I said this last week. Henry inline, Smith detached/back field/slot & Pitts split out.

Or Smith split out, Henry slot and Pitts inline.

Or Smith inline, Pitts detached & Henry split out.

Or Pitts in the back field, Henry inline & Smith detached.

Seriously though, it's Pitts > everyone else.

 

[Nunchucks]

Always wait to you are sure the guy you want is there.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I think trading now is a bad idea. There is a lot of uncertaincie about the draft directions teams will go and players ranking.
I can see a run on offense talent in the top 10 bc i don't really see a defense player worth a top 10 pick except from surtain/Fairley but both have flags. Parsons as well. They might get over drafted. Teams who are looking for defense players in top 10 are rare this year.
Jags - QB
Jets- QB/Sewell/Pitts
Phins- QB/Sewell/Pitts/WR
Falcons- QB/Sewell/Pitts or trade down
Bengals- Sewell/Pitts/WR

The only teams i can see picking defense in top 10 are denver and cowboys maybe eagles but only if they felt in love with one there. If they stay at their spot they know it's a reach imo and could trade down if they wanna go defense. So their can be some trades in top 10 for QB and with that risk we would likely have to trade to spot 3/4 if we really like one. This is gonna cost a lot for a QB who likely sits in year 1 here. I think waiting is the better option.

 

[Kontradiction]

Trade up now. That said...

I like him as a Buckeye but don’t see him making it on the next level. He would have to be a run first guy in an offense like Jackson. OSUs system puts as little pressure on the qb throwing as possible. They set up the passing game to have guys wide open, run on 3rd down and use the run to create the passing game.

What changed your mind from this take a few months back? Is it that you see BB running a Baltimore offense with the Pats for the rest of his career or something else?

 

[venecol]

But he has to do it. Honestly I dont care what his board looks he’s got to go get the qb. It’s absurd to think he has trash higher than the top 4. If he likes jones as a top 5 pick then someone else might too so he needs to go up and get him.
It doesn’t matter what it costs he has to get get his guy.

Fortunately Bill isn't as frantic and hysterical as you. Assuming he even values any QB besides Lawrence, why would he show his hand. It's an act of desperation that weakens his position. The value of having a top 5 pick is in being able to bid it out. That value increases more on draft day.

You say if it's this QB or that QB so be it, let's get one of them because it's better than Cam. Look at what happened in FAcy. You listed 42 QBs better than Cam, over a dozen available during FAcy, yet Bill re-signed Cam even before FAcy began.

Imagine the legacy Bill would leave by selling out for a Fields and he ends up being another Rosen or Haskins. Why would he do anything unless it was a sure thing. Plus, I've heard over and over how all Bill needs is a game manager. So wait for Mills, much cheaper. Anyway, you trade for #4 before the draft, then CAR moves up to #2 or #3 and takes your guy, then what.

Odds are Bill trades down or for 2022 picks to go after a top QB next year.

 

[scout]

The jets did it for Darnold. Pretty sure skins did it for RG III AND OUT

If fields goes at 2 they take Wilson.
They have to draft a QB so going to 4 or 5 gives them one of the top 4. If you only like 3 of them then you probably have to go to 4 with atl.

This is wrong. A team needs to have a QB in mind to want to move up. The team cannot move up and take an alternate QB because their QB is no longer available. Well, the QB we desired (accurate, intelligent, etc) wasn't available so we took another QB, anyone but Cam. It won't work.

 

[venecol]

Well we have to get a QB
If you think he likes less than 4 QB and QBs go 1-2-3 then trade up higher.
Trading up appears to be a necessity. We surely can’t go into the season with newton and Stidham as well as nothing for next year.

Pucker Up Buttercup!

 

[Ring 6]

Trade up now. That said...



What changed your mind from this take a few months back? Is it that you see BB running a Baltimore offense with the Pats for the rest of his career or something else?

Dug deeper on fields

 

[moosekill]

I think trading up now just makes the impatient fans happy, unless we are trading up to number 1 or 2. I am still hopeful we trade up and take a qb, but I have no idea who BB wants. I also still think there is a very good chance that either 5 qb's are gone in the first 10 picks, or someone like Wilson suddenly is available at #4.

 

[mgteich]

Its very clear we are drafting a QB. It’s also very likely we are trading up to do it.
I want that QB to be Justin Fields. Probably need to go to 4 to be sure.
Does it make more sense to do it early or wait until draft day? Will the price go up or down?
I think BB needs to approach this like he did Free Agency. He had a plan, he new what he needed, and he went out and got it right away.
I think he should be talking trades now up to 4th or 5th. One of the top 4 will be there at 5 so unless you hate one and need to go up higher your in position at 5, and of course you are at 4. Bb should be having long talks with Atlanta and Cincy and if the price is acceptable do it now.

Trading up to 4 doesn't make it a lock to get Fields. I think it reasonable for CAR to effect a trade with MIA. The jets might even trade out of their pick and choose not to pick a top quarterback.

 

[Kontradiction]

Dug deeper on fields

...and? Genuinely curious.

 

[BTTA]

Alternative Scenario. We trade 15 to SF for JG and their Second Round Pick (43). SF then trades #15 & #12 to MIA for Pick #3.
While i guess the scenario in trading up for a QB is what most people want, BB usually prefers veterans over rookies. Also, if the reports are true, BB wanted to keep JG over Brady. Don't underestimate the pride of Bill, he wants to proof to everyone that he was right.

Everybody talks like this, as if they have incontrovertible insight into the nuances of the man's attitudes and emotional needs, but nobody provides any evidence.

What evidence is there that he's motivated specifically by proving to everyone that he's right?

I'm curious about this because if true, it is a weakness in him that is inconsistent with what we've actually seen of him. He has made it clear, through actions and words, that he's focused on the team and on winning, and couldn't care less about opinions that aren't aligned with that. He lives in the current year, not past years.

 

[Ring 6]

...and? Genuinely curious.

Like I said before I was worried that he looked better than he was because of the system creating a lot of easy plays. It’s kind of a prejudice because executing easy plays doesn’t make you bad. So I looked deeper at the plays that weren’t easy, at reports, etc, and particularly games against tough competition. Sure he made a lot of plays with his first read open, but when it wasn’t he still made plays going through progressions. They enhanced the offense and made it more complicated with him. I also see a guy who can run but doesn’t run until it’s the only choice, sticking in the pocket.
I think I was too focussed in his easy it was for him to put up the ridiculous scoring numbers he did abs overlooked he did the difficult stuff really well too.
@BaconGrundleCandy posted a good analysis he found as well, but I’m not sure what thread it’s in.
Also the way the offense is being built seems like a perfect system for his skillset, (and I don’t see it as a baltimore system) and I think fields will be ready to play quickly.

 

[Ring 6]

Trading up to 4 doesn't make it a lock to get Fields. I think it reasonable for CAR to effect a trade with MIA. The jets might even trade out of their pick and choose not to pick a top quarterback.

Trading up to 4 does guarantee us one of the 4 and I just don’t see any way QBs go 1,2,3.
Besides if we have to go to 3 it’s easier to get there from 4 than 15.
But if you think it has to be 3 the scenario still holds and you trade up to 3 rather than 4.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

Trading up to 4 does guarantee us one of the 4 and I just don’t see any way QBs go 1,2,3.
Besides if we have to go to 3 it’s easier to get there from 4 than 15.
But if you think it has to be 3 the scenario still holds and you trade up to 3 rather than 4.

I think I would at least wait the first 2 picks. If Jets go with non qb and i guess 4 would be enough or 5/6 to get one. If Jets go qb we definetly need to go to 4 i believe cause we don't know if phins May go qb but I doubt it Although tua is not really the answer accordinf to rumours

 

[venecol]

Trading up to 4 does guarantee us one of the 4 and I just don’t see any way QBs go 1,2,3.
Besides if we have to go to 3 it’s easier to get there from 4 than 15.
But if you think it has to be 3 the scenario still holds and you trade up to 3 rather than 4.

LMAO, you think MIA or NYJ are going to hand Belichick a top 3 pick? You're not just desperate, you're bat sh*t crazy.

Get a hold of your emotions, you'll survive another year with Cam. This roster is waaaay more talented than the crap team Belichick put out last year. Cam is guaranteed to win 3 more games with this team. Going 10-6 may get them a WC spot.

 

[Ring 6]

I think I would at least wait the first 2 picks. If Jets go with non qb and i guess 4 would be enough or 5/6 to get one. If Jets go qb we definetly need to go to 4 i believe cause we don't know if phins May go qb but I doubt it Although tua is not really the answer accordinf to rumours

My issue with waiting is there will be competition.
If I trade up to 4 today the worst case is I misread the picks and only had to trade up to 6. Not a big downside. If I get my qb the difference in trading to 4 vs 6 doesn’t bother me.

If I wait and try to trade up to 4 while Atlanta is in the clock, (or even 6 for that matter) there is a great chance that someone else outbids me. If a team at 8,9,12 wants the pick too, 4 would rather trade with them and move down fewer spots. Given our history the value of next years pucks probably doesn’t stack up either.

I’m approaching this from the standpoint that you have to get the QB. Because we do.
So settling it now eliminates the risk of getting shut out.
I’ll put it another way. Belichick needs to decide which of those QB he wants and trade up high enough to get one.
Doing it now guarantees it happens, waiting until draft day is a gamble.