Trade up now or wait

[Ring 6]

LMAO, you think MIA or NYJ are going to hand Belichick a top 3 pick? You're not just desperate, you're bat sh*t crazy.

Get a hold of your emotions, you'll survive another year with Cam. This roster is waaaay more talented than the crap team Belichick put out last year. Cam is guaranteed to win 3 more games with this team. Going 10-6 may get them a WC spot.

It’s a trade. If they see more value in what they get them in the pick, of course they trade.
It’s not emotional at all, I’ll leave that to you.
It’s the logical move that they have to make. Having crap at qb is unacceptable.

 

[Sicilian]

LMAO, you think MIA or NYJ are going to hand Belichick a top 3 pick? You're not just desperate, you're bat sh*t crazy.

Get a hold of your emotions, you'll survive another year with Cam. This roster is waaaay more talented than the crap team Belichick put out last year. Cam is guaranteed to win 3 more games with this team. Going 10-6 may get them a WC spot.

Quick correction: It would be 10-7 because of the extra game. That might get them in, but it's new territory for predictions. 10-6 would usually almost always get you in with 3 wild card spots, but 10-7 is worse. 9-7 would SOMETIMES get you in, and 10-7 is better (I know, I know, this is all obvious, but I swear I have a point). It's a weird middle ground, because what we normally think of as the "safe" records are now going to need adjusting. Especially this year, where the extra game is a home game for every AFC team, I'm thinking 11-6 is going to be the minimum required mark to make the playoffs (with the exception of teams in bad divisions).

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

My issue with waiting is there will be competition.
If I trade up to 4 today the worst case is I misread the picks and only had to trade up to 6. Not a big downside. If I get my qb the difference in trading to 4 vs 6 doesn’t bother me.

My biggest Problem is this:
From the top 4/5 QB i don't think BB sees all as potential QBOTF. So if BB sees one outside of Lawrence as QBOTF you can't guarantee you get him if you trade now with Atlanta. The only thing you can guarantee is you get one of the top 4 but I Highly doubt BB would do such a trade for any of those 4. So if you wait and see on draft Day the guy you would have picked gets chosen at 2 from Jets the trade up would be a mess. If the guy is still there at 4 it's better to do it now. If obv BB would take any of the top 4 then trade up now

If I wait and try to trade up to 4 while Atlanta is in the clock, (or even 6 for that matter) there is a great chance that someone else outbids me. If a team at 8,9,12 wants the pick too, 4 would rather trade with them and move down fewer spots. Given our history the value of next years pucks probably doesn’t stack up either.

Agree

I’m approaching this from the standpoint that you have to get the QB. Because we do.
So settling it now eliminates the risk of getting shut out.
I’ll put it another way. Belichick needs to decide which of those QB he wants and trade up high enough to get one.
Doing it now guarantees it happens, waiting until draft day is a gamble.

 

[venecol]

It’s a trade. If they see more value in what they get them in the pick, of course they trade.
It’s not emotional at all, I’ll leave that to you.
It’s the logical move that they have to make. Having crap at qb is unacceptable.

No, stop dreaming. MIA a/o NYJ are not going to hand Belichick his possible franchise QB for another 10-year run (even w/o Bill). They can get just as good or better deal from someone else that isn't a division rival (CAR).

Why is it a logical move? According to you, Belichick re-signing Cam was a sign he has "demensia."

Maybe he thinks there's more value in a Mills or Mond with a run first roster. Regardless, even if he picks a QB, he's not likely to start in 2021. Bill won't ruin him like that, so you're stuck with Cam as the starter, which apparently is your worse nightmare. You'll be fine.

Pucker up buttercup.

 

[Ring 6]

My biggest Problem is this:
From the top 4/5 QB i don't think BB sees all as potential QBOTF. So if BB sees one outside of Lawrence as QBOTF you can't guarantee you get him if you trade now with Atlanta. The only thing you can guarantee is you get one of the top 4 but I Highly doubt BB would do such a trade for any of those 4. So if you wait and see on draft Day the guy you would have picked gets chosen at 2 from Jets the trade up would be a mess. If the guy is still there at 4 it's better to do it now. If obv BB would take any of the top 4 then trade up now

Agree

My response would be that all 4 QBs are graded as excellent prospects by basically everyone.
Sure Belichick has the right to pee all over this grades but if doing so leaves you with the worst QB room in the NFL.
I would say the choices he has are limited.
Good QBs don’t just become available, and even if they did hope isn’t a plan.
Taking an excellent prospect and the responsibility to coach them up is a better plan than anything else I’ve seen.
People are talking about being certain but this is as certain as it gets. Hoping a great qb becomes a free agent or demands a trade will leave us with fecal matter at the most important position in the field making a really good roster a team with no chance to win.
I think we can all agree that if cam Newton is the QB of this team for all of 2021 there is absolutely zero chance if winning a SB. You can’t stand pat on that.

 

[Big Bucks]

I want to trade up to around 5, 6 or 7 to make it more enticing for those who drop back to that can and will get a great player. If there are no biters we can trade back or take best player available in either the WRs or the TE. Use a 2nd and a 3rd to move up.. then offer 2022 1st to move into 2,3 spots. I would 100% be happy to move that 2nd and 3rd today to move up to get Chase or Pitts

 

[Ring 6]

No, stop dreaming. MIA a/o NYJ are not going to hand Belichick his possible franchise QB for another 10-year run (even w/o Bill). They can get just as good or better deal from someone else that isn't a division rival (CAR).

Why is it a logical move? According to you, Belichick re-signing Cam was a sign he has "demensia."

Maybe he thinks there's more value in a Mills or Mond with a run first roster. Regardless, even if he picks a QB, he's not likely to start in 2021. Bill won't ruin him like that, so you're stuck with Cam as the starter, which apparently is your worse nightmare. You'll be fine.

Pucker up buttercup.

Are you just naturally a dlck or do I intimidate you that much?
Why can you not have a normal conversation without throwing in trolling attempts to incite.
Why don’t you grow up.

I understand you want newton to play because you are a fan who is only happy when the team is bad and you can complain. Most fans prefer to win.
I honestly see no value in any exchanges with you.
your football knowledge is pedestrian, you wallow in negativity and you don’t seem to be capable of communicating without trying to jab people. How about you find someone else to play your games with, I am not interested

 

[Lansdowne]

Many of us assume BB is trading up to get a QB because it’s a position of need. But we also know he tends to zag when everyone else zigs. I remember in 2001 everyone was certain David Terrell was going 6th overall and instead it was Richard Seymour. For all we know he might have his heart set on Micah Parsons, given the uncertainty of Hightower playing beyond this year. He may find the value in a player like Parsons being worth more than the difference between Mac Jones and the next tier of QB prospects (Mond, Trask, Newman, Mills, etc.). He might decide he really likes a guy like K.J. Costello more than most and take him in the 4th round or something (I certainly hope not). We just don’t know. If BB does trade up it will be because he has one player in mind, and it may not necessarily be a quarterback. I hope it is, but just be prepared in case it isn’t. It seems like every year BB drafts differently than everyone else expects and every year we’re surprised by it for some reason.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

My response would be that all 4 QBs are graded as excellent prospects by basically everyone.
Sure Belichick has the right to pee all over this grades but if doing so leaves you with the worst QB room in the NFL.
I would say the choices he has are limited.
Good QBs don’t just become available, and even if they did hope isn’t a plan.
Taking an excellent prospect and the responsibility to coach them up is a better plan than anything else I’ve seen.

I am not arguing about how experts etc. are looking at these prospects but there are probably different opinions from NFL Teams and Scouts out there who don't see anyone as a franchise qb otf. I am sure they have their rankings where one or the other qb might is ranked lower on their board for different reasons. So in conclusion I think there is a chance BB doesn't view all of them as QBOTF and would trade up for any. So their is also a big risk in trading up now to 4 if you only have two possible QBOTF in this draft. I hope of course we do trade up at some point and get our QBOTF which would make the team significantly better as I think there is a possibility Newton won't play better. I hope of course he does improve but chances are there he doesn't and I do not want to have stidham or Hoyer than as Backups. Neither do i want to see (if Newton failes) to let him still play every game cause Backups are still worse.

People are talking about being certain but this is as certain as it gets. Hoping a great qb becomes a free agent or demands a trade will leave us with fecal matter at the most important position in the field making a really good roster a team with no chance to win.
I think we can all agree that if cam Newton is the QB of this team for all of 2021 there is absolutely zero chance if winning a SB. You can’t stand pat on that.

 

[moosekill]

So do we somehow not think the Patriots have these qb's graded independently and would like any of them the same? If the Jet's don't take a qb, all hell is going to break loose. If the first 3 teams all take qb's all hell is going to break lose. The Patriots will only move if they feel they need to, to get the qb they want, if they want one at all. I can't possibly imagine Bill saying oh any of those 5 is worth what it will take to get them. Maybe 1 or 2 or 3. Plus, who Bill likes may be different than who we think he should like.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

My biggest Problem is this:
From the top 4/5 QB i don't think BB sees all as potential QBOTF. So if BB sees one outside of Lawrence as QBOTF you can't guarantee you get him if you trade now with Atlanta. The only thing you can guarantee is you get one of the top 4 but I Highly doubt BB would do such a trade for any of those 4. So if you wait and see on draft Day the guy you would have picked gets chosen at 2 from Jets the trade up would be a mess. If the guy is still there at 4 it's better to do it now. If obv BB would take any of the top 4 then trade up now

This is standard draft protocol. Only trade up if there is a QB you like and only do so on draft day to see where things shake out. If Bill is not enamored with Fields or Lance, there's no point trading up now. Odds are that half of the top QB prospects (Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, and Jones) are not going to pan out anyway.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

This is standard draft protocol. Only trade up if there is a QB you like and only do so on draft day to see where things shake out. If Bill is not enamored with Fields or Lance, there's no point trading up now. Odds are that half of the top QB prospects (Lawrence, Lance, Fields, Wilson, and Jones) are not going to pan out.

Agree that's why i don't want to trade up now. Don't care much about the odds. If BB thinks that guy is it than do whatever it takes to get him. If he thinks noone outside of Lawrence can be a QBOTF than do sth else, i'm ok with that either since i don't just want to pick a qb cause we need one. Of course later we can take shots cause value of the picks later is anyway small

 

[venecol]

Are you just naturally a dlck or do I intimidate you that much?

Just amused at your utter meltdown ever since Bill signed Cam. It's fascinating to see a grown man act the way you do.

I understand you want newton to play because you are a fan who is only happy when the team is bad and you can complain. Most fans prefer to win.

I'm a realist and never expected the team to be ready to win a SB 2 yrs after losing their GOAT QB and the lack of talent in skilled players. They're a lot closer now.

your football knowledge is pedestrian,

Pedestrian like this brilliant take?

Besides if we have to go to 3 it’s easier to get there from 4 than 15.
But if you think it has to be 3 the scenario still holds and you trade up to 3 rather than 4.

LMAO

you wallow in negativity

More negativity than this?

Sure Belichick has the right to pee all over this grades but if doing so leaves you with the worst QB room in the NFL.
Hoping a great qb becomes a free agent or demands a trade will leave us with fecal matter at the most important position in the field making a really good roster a team with no chance to win.
I think we can all agree that if cam Newton is the QB of this team for all of 2021 there is absolutely zero chance if winning a SB.

LMAO

Carry on, your hysterics are endless entertainment.

 

[Ring 6]

Just amused at your utter meltdown ever since Bill signed Cam. It's fascinating to see a grown man act the way you do.

The patriots are important to me I don’t want to see them suck.

I'm a realist and never expected the team to be ready to win a SB 2 yrs after losing their GOAT QB and the lack of talent in skilled players. They're a lot closer now.

You revel in criticizing.

Pedestrian like this brilliant take?

LMAO

Sorry you can’t understand the topic.

More negativity than this?


LMAO

Way, way more negative. You are consistently negative about everything about the team. You predict (hope) they will be cheap in free agency and consider that a bad move. They do the opposite and aggressively attack free agency and you cry that they overpaid.
I am 100% negative about one piece of the team that I watch suck last year and I know will hold back this team. Unlike you if he plays I will want him to do well because I care about the teams winning, not crap I post on an anonymous message board to troll people.

Carry on, your hysterics are endless entertainment.

Stop posting words you don’t know the meaning of.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

@Ring 6
Here it is. Just to be clear and completely transparent. The dumb words/analysis is mine. I didn't find it anywhere but obviously the clips are from Twitter. Just wanted to be clear on that.

I think it's important to go through this stuff to break down narratives, if they exist. Or misconceptions about young prospects. Apologize for the late response. Old excuse but work has been tough. I'll start to write and get caught up in something. Next thing I know its the next day.

Anyway back to Fields. As I understand it you have two concerns. I'll try touch on one in separate post.

1)OSU scheme - I've mentioned this a few times but Haskins & Fields might have been running two different systems. Haskins and others were letting mesh do the heavy lifting in the passing game. A lot of the time their athletes were simply winning 1 on 1 battles by out racing an opponent across the field. If need be the reads were pretty simple, beat man, sit vs zone.
Or they would run something like this called a "triangle" read I believe. Mesh with a route at the top of the crossers to create a triangle. Basically in front of the QB, coverage and player call doing a lot of the work.

This wasn't the whole case with Haskins and not to say Fields doesn't get open WR's but just an example of how things were different between the two.

Fields is tasked with going through more progressions and working more concepts, sometimes one on either side of the field. Working more vertical stuff, reading coverage/being on the same page with his targets & is able to do a lot more outside the pocket.







I wouldn't say his scheme is hurting him but it's not easy. Young kid, Covid year, one of his years. And he hasn't ever been bad. Some hiccups but he's never been bad. He's run that offense pretty well imo. Again its just tough. He's working from start to finish. Scanning an entire defense most of the time. Multi-level and layering passes in. Side to side, MOF, high/low. A lot of college QB's are making single reads, basically working off their two or three best targets. Half field stuff. Impressive but Fields improved year to year in terms of that stuff. He's doing a lot more than most QB's out there.

Looks kind of familiar


2)As far as tight window passes. Let me show you instead of telling you. He a lot of arm talent and trust it. It's not all world but has everything that constitutes arm talent imo. Accuracy, touch, placement, velocity and ability to change up arm angle.

Here are some NFL passes that require a tight or pretty tight window, ++ placement, touch and accuracy.



https://twitter.com/LukeGrant7/status/1345539220861902850?s=19

Some of my notes on Justin Fields ...

*Toughness* stands out every game! Doesn't flinch at all if a pass is there will stand in and take a shot - he'll shake off multiple defenders, DT types and keep a play going. Taken shots in the pocket, on the move and isn't deterred.

Like his footwork, base and mechanics for the most part. Feet are light, slides, steps up. Shows decent command for the pocket. Confident stepping up standing tall. Isn't afraid of 300+ DT chasing him. Feel could improve but I like his command.

Arm talent is plus. Multiple times a game he has to layer passes over or between defenders. Trust his arm!

Scans across the entire field like a clock. A little hesitant at times but seems confident, smart but could be a little quicker at times. Ask someone smarter about him working hi/low, zone match...

Big time potential on the move. Accurate, confident and legs are ++. Could ve quicker in the pocket but legs can do a lot for him. Comfortable on bootlegs, scrambling and picking up easy or tough yards.

Improve vs blitz, edge pressure before he hits the next level. Make things quicker, help him out getting the ball out quicker - speed everything up both physical and mental. Get him going, on his toes. He need to grow but system isn't his best friend. Quicker! Biggest criticism - get quicker.

Get comfortable in an offense. Progressed year 1 to year 2. Stay in same!?? Ask someone smarter. Good for change or keep evolving?? Growth was there but should it be this tough or does it have to be?

Arm is huge. ++ intermediate + short good deep. All could improve. He could be a monster in the short/intermediate parts bc of velocity and ability to layer passes between coverage/defenders.

 

[Ring 6]

@Ring 6
Here it is. Just to be clear and completely transparent. The dumb words/analysis is mine. I didn't find it anywhere but obviously the clips are from Twitter. Just wanted to be clear on that.

I think it's important to go through this stuff to break down narratives, if they exist. Or misconceptions about young prospects. Apologize for the late response. Old excuse but work has been tough. I'll start to write and get caught up in something. Next thing I know its the next day.

Anyway back to Fields. As I understand it you have two concerns. I'll try touch on one in separate post.

1)OSU scheme - I've mentioned this a few times but Haskins & Fields might have been running two different systems. Haskins and others were letting mesh do the heavy lifting in the passing game. A lot of the time their athletes were simply winning 1 on 1 battles by out racing an opponent across the field. If need be the reads were pretty simple, beat man, sit vs zone.
Or they would run something like this called a "triangle" read I believe. Mesh with a route at the top of the crossers to create a triangle. Basically in front of the QB, coverage and player call doing a lot of the work.

This wasn't the whole case with Haskins and not to say Fields doesn't get open WR's but just an example of how things were different between the two.

Fields is tasked with going through more progressions and working more concepts, sometimes one on either side of the field. Working more vertical stuff, reading coverage/being on the same page with his targets & is able to do a lot more outside the pocket.







I wouldn't say his scheme is hurting him but it's not easy. Young kid, Covid year, one of his years. And he hasn't ever been bad. Some hiccups but he's never been bad. He's run that offense pretty well imo. Again its just tough. He's working from start to finish. Scanning an entire defense most of the time. Multi-level and layering passes in. Side to side, MOF, high/low. A lot of college QB's are making single reads, basically working off their two or three best targets. Half field stuff. Impressive but Fields improved year to year in terms of that stuff. He's doing a lot more than most QB's out there.

Looks kind of familiar


2)As far as tight window passes. Let me show you instead of telling you. He a lot of arm talent and trust it. It's not all world but has everything that constitutes arm talent imo. Accuracy, touch, placement, velocity and ability to change up arm angle.

Here are some NFL passes that require a tight or pretty tight window, ++ placement, touch and accuracy.



https://twitter.com/LukeGrant7/status/1345539220861902850?s=19

Some of my notes on Justin Fields ...

*Toughness* stands out every game! Doesn't flinch at all if a pass is there will stand in and take a shot - he'll shake off multiple defenders, DT types and keep a play going. Taken shots in the pocket, on the move and isn't deterred.

Like his footwork, base and mechanics for the most part. Feet are light, slides, steps up. Shows decent command for the pocket. Confident stepping up standing tall. Isn't afraid of 300+ DT chasing him. Feel could improve but I like his command.

Arm talent is plus. Multiple times a game he has to layer passes over or between defenders. Trust his arm!

Scans across the entire field like a clock. A little hesitant at times but seems confident, smart but could be a little quicker at times. Ask someone smarter about him working hi/low, zone match...

Big time potential on the move. Accurate, confident and legs are ++. Could ve quicker in the pocket but legs can do a lot for him. Comfortable on bootlegs, scrambling and picking up easy or tough yards.

Improve vs blitz, edge pressure before he hits the next level. Make things quicker, help him out getting the ball out quicker - speed everything up both physical and mental. Get him going, on his toes. He need to grow but system isn't his best friend. Quicker! Biggest criticism - get quicker.

Get comfortable in an offense. Progressed year 1 to year 2. Stay in same!?? Ask someone smarter. Good for change or keep evolving?? Growth was there but should it be this tough or does it have to be?

Arm is huge. ++ intermediate + short good deep. All could improve. He could be a monster in the short/intermediate parts bc of velocity and ability to layer passes between coverage/defenders.

I was also referring to the clips and the analysis with in them.

Thank you for the exhaustive effort!!!

 

[venecol]

The main issue I see with the OP premise, as others have pointed out, there's no guarantee "your guy" will be there, even at #4.

This is just as likely a scenario as any:

#1 - JAX: Trevor Lawrence
#2 - NYJ: Zach Wilson

#3 - CAR: Justin Fields. MIA trades down to #8 where they get one of top 2 WRs + a bunch of CAR picks. CAR is desperate and will sell out to move up 5 spots.

#4 - SF: Trey Lance. ATL trades down to #12 where they can get a top EDGE + some nice SF picks. SF wants to move on from Jimmy in 2022 and Lance offers a great replacement.

Mac Jones should be available at #15 if Patriots are interested in him. If not, they can pick one of the top WRs, trade down or into 2022.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

The main issue I see with the OP premise, as others have pointed out, there's no guarantee "your guy" will be there, even at #4.

This is just as likely a scenario as any:

#1 - JAX: Trevor Lawrence
#2 - NYJ: Zach Wilson

#3 - CAR: Justin Fields. MIA trades down to #8 where they get one of top 2 WRs + a bunch of CAR picks. CAR is desperate and will sell out to move up 5 spots.

#4 - SF: Trey Lance. ATL trades down to #12 where they can get a top EDGE + some nice SF picks. SF wants to move on from Jimmy in 2022 and Lance offers a great replacement.

Mac Jones should be available at #15 if Patriots are interested in him. If not, they can pick one of the top WRs, trade down or into 2022.

I would be stunned if we stood pat at 15 to select a qb. Not saying it won’t happen, just that I would be stunned. Especially in the scenario where TLaw Wilson fields and Lance are gone in the first four. That leaves Jones as the last one available with 10 more picks before our selection. And we have teams like Chicago WFT pittsburgh? who could try to jump us for Jones.

I feel if we don’t move up we’re going defense r1 and looking at Mond, Mills day 2 or trying to reacquire JimmyG.

 

[Zuma]

First round QB's have a better chance of succeeding then otherwise. Nothing wrong with moving up to grab one...any of them.

 

[ashley]

Interesting...