Top 5 As Usual Or One Of The Worst in 20 Years?

[captain stone]

The OL has one change but it's a major one, especially given how shaky Thuney was next to LT...

This particular point has not received as much attention as it perhaps should.
If Trent Brown is a train wreck at LT - a position he has Never played in the pros, if not in his life - then everything grinds to a halt.

 

[FCB02062]

According to Pro-football-reference.com,

2013 was the league's #3 scoring offense. It was #2 in first downs made. It was #4 in scoring percentage. It was #7 in yards. It was #7 in passing attempt,s and #10 in passing yards.

2013 New England Patriots Statistics & Players | Pro-Football-Reference.com


Yet we can all accept that 2013 was a down year for the passing game. So what metric are we using that doesn't show the perils of focusing on rankings when determining likely quality?

Third down conversions...2013 Patriots were 37.6%, good for 16th in the league...conversely, 44.3 (2014, 6th), 40.9 (2015, 11th), 45.8 (2016, 4th), 40.6 (2017, 10th)...so the Patriots, while annually a high scoring offense, are not as good as you'd think on third down for a team with Brady at quarterback...2013 and 2003 are the only times in Brady's career (since 2001) the Patriots have been sub .40% on third downs on offense...2013 was their worst mark ever. The 2013 Patriots managed to go a combined 5/30 on third down vs the vaunted New York Jets....

 

[The Brandon Five]

Skippy McD isn't entering the HOF unless he has a ticket.

I was using artistic license. He changed the game of football.

It all started here

 

[Deus Irae]

Third down conversions...2013 Patriots were 37.6%, good for 16th in the league...conversely, 44.3 (2014, 6th), 40.9 (2015, 11th), 45.8 (2016, 4th), 40.6 (2017, 10th)...so the Patriots, while annually a high scoring offense, are not as good as you'd think on third down for a team with Brady at quarterback...2013 and 2003 are the only times in Brady's career (since 2001) the Patriots have been sub .40% on third downs on offense...2013 was their worst mark ever. The 2013 Patriots managed to go a combined 5/30 on third down vs the vaunted New York Jets....

You're making my point. You can't evaluate just by tossing out a couple of numbers without context. The numbers will generally have some level of divergence, and years with close numbers might easily be misleading.

So, if you start with a "top 5" argument, you first need to establish a viable, dependable metric.

 

[Simpelton]

Comes down to Brady. If he's healthy, sky's the limit.

 

[The Brandon Five]

A lot has not worked out thus far, but Jordan Matthews is still available.

Jordan Matthews return to Patriots possible

 

[LaterGator]

A lot has not worked out thus far, but Jordan Matthews is still available.

Jordan Matthews return to Patriots possible

As Long as Gronk and JE, and enough of Hogan, White, Dorsett, Burkhead and Michel are healthy, they'll be fine.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

I am trying to see who can be man coverage from the wideouts. Edelman maybe? I am gonna keep an eye in the first four games how many of these opposing teams play man coverage without Edelman on the field.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Public relations will be very good. Just watch.

Especially if they have some watermelon rolls.

(see BB's comments today)

 

[Shockt327]

Anyone claiming this passing offense is as bad as 2006 or 2013 is out to lunch.

• An active Gronk - alone - makes it significantly better than any of the above years; this isn't even debatable.

• Edelman is only out for 4 games - it's not a FA loss that you struggled to replace all year long, like Branch and Welker were. Four games =/= all year.

• James White is your #3. Why don't people realize this? He's the best passing-catching back Brady has ever had; and Brady always relies on one. Go look it up. No other RB has gotten 60+ receptions from Brady; and doing it with 9.2 YPR makes it not even close. He's a match-up nightmare.

^^^ These three roles are the core passing offense with Brady; it's been that way before^^^

• Chris Hogan is in the same role as last year and the year before; he'll get you 30+ rec.

• Cordarrelle Patterson and/or Phillip Dorsett are perfectly fine as either of your 5th pass catching options (limited roles, different skill sets). Even Amendola's production was limited here. Who else would you rather have? Kembrell Thompkins? Aaron Dobson?

Brandon Cooks is the only real loss from last year. He was a legit, outside, deep threat that could give you 65 receptions. And, no, you won't find a replacement anytime this year. But how many seasons has Brady really had one of those guys? And even when he does, do they ever stay on for two years in a row...with Brady...while still playing at a high level? LaFell couldn't. Brandon Lloyd didn't. Moss was the closest (and 2009 sucked).

But Cooks, despite losing him, wasn't exactly a "need" coming into 2017. More like an icing-on-the-cake acquisition; coming off a 2016 Superbowl winning season, where you had to play -- without Gronk for most of the season -- and had 4 games with two back-up QBs, and you still ended up having the #3 offense in pts, and the best record in the league for 2016.

Yeah, it's not that bad.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

If we remain healthy, we will be a top 5 offense.

Defense on the other hand looks to be a problem. The run defense is not nearly as stout as I thought it would be.
Pass defense against backs and tight ends is still leaky.
Our secondary is the slowest in football. The McCourty brothers are slow, Chung is slow. And most out our rookie db’s look slow.

It’s too bad, because I think Flores has a good defensive scheme. He just has too many snails on defense.

I still think we finish 1st in the afc at 11 and 5.

 

[supafly]

Anyone claiming this passing offense is as bad as 2006 or 2013 is out to lunch.

• An active Gronk - alone - makes it significantly better than any of the above years; this isn't even debatable.

• Edelman is only out for 4 games - it's not a FA loss that you struggled to replace all year long, like Branch and Welker were. Four games =/= all year.

• James White is your #3. Why don't people realize this? He's the best passing-catching back Brady has ever had; and Brady always relies on one. Go look it up. No other RB has gotten 60+ receptions from Brady; and doing it with 9.2 YPR makes it not even close. He's a match-up nightmare.

^^^ These three roles are the core passing offense with Brady; it's been that way before^^^

• Chris Hogan is in the same role as last year and the year before; he'll get you 30+ rec.

• Cordarrelle Patterson and/or Phillip Dorsett are perfectly fine as either of your 5th pass catching options (limited roles, different skill sets). Even Amendola's production was limited here. Who else would you rather have? Kembrell Thompkins? Aaron Dobson?

Brandon Cooks is the only real loss from last year. He was a legit, outside, deep threat that could give you 65 receptions. And, no, you won't find a replacement anytime this year. But how many seasons has Brady really had one of those guys? And even when he does, do they ever stay on for two years in a row...with Brady...while still playing at a high level? LaFell couldn't. Brandon Lloyd didn't. Moss was the closest (and 2009 sucked).

But Cooks, despite losing him, wasn't exactly a "need" coming into 2017. More like an icing-on-the-cake acquisition; coming off a 2016 Superbowl winning season, where you had to play -- without Gronk for most of the season -- and had 4 games with two back-up QBs, and you still ended up having the #3 offense in pts, and the best record in the league for 2016.

Yeah, it's not that bad.

I agree that it’s not that bad at the moment and that people are overreacting; however, add just one of those players that you used as examples lost to injury, and the situation becomes night and day different.

I know that I’m stating the obvious, but I think we could go from “not bad” to pretty miserable very quickly, and that’s where one more quality player could help. While I don’t expect much of an addition, that’s certainly the concern. As it stands now, we have Hogan, Dorsett, and Patterson all slotted at least one depth chart position higher than they should be, and we’re struggling to find a WR4 and WR5 just to add to the opening 53 man roster. No, the situation isn’t dire yet, but it’s starting to get there.

I’m guessing that they only go with 4 WRs + Slater. Whether or not that’s McCarron or another depth addition remains to be seen. Either way, it’s going to take a full team effort, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if they start 2-2. I’m pretty much expecting it with Edelman out for 1/4 of the season.