The roster: Looking ahead to 2021

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slam

In the Starting Line-Up
I wanted to take a look at what the team might look like going forward, at least to 2021. According to Spotrac, the Pats have $67.99 mil in cap space in 2021, which is 4th most in the league. Please correct me if I'm wrong on anything I say as I'm no cap/transactions expert.

2021 Roster
The 43 players under contract are:

QB Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Cannon, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C N/A

DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Chung, Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty

K N/A
P Bailey
LS Cardona

Absolute Needs (literally can't field a roster without it): QB1, K, C, DE
Additional Needs: WR1, TE, DT, FS

Draft picks: 1, 2, 3(comp), 4, 4(comp), 4(comp), 5, 6(Jets), 6(Cowboys), 6

Key Free Agent Decisions:
Thuney, Newton, JC Jackson, J. White, Guy, Andrews, Butler, J. McCourty, Burkhead, Eleumunor, John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Byrd, Terez Hall. My guess is that the first 6 or 7 names on the list would be signed at a salary high enough to factor in on the comp formula, maybe more? That means the Pats could sign a few free agents before having future comp picks impacted.

Plan One: They Like Newton
Let's imagine for a moment that they like Newton enough to sign him to midlevel starter money and the feeling is mutual. Using Spotrac's calculated market value, $31.5 mil/year is good for 19th biggest cap hit in the league sandwiched between Wilson and Cousins (again, not a cap expert). Let's say they re-sign Andrews for $10 mil/year, and sign an average kicker if they determine neither Rohrwasser or Folk is the future. We'll throw $1.5 mil/year at FA Younghoe Koo who's kicking well for Atlanta this year. Those last two numbers are made up, as Spotrac doesn't have estimates for them but they seem to fit market values.

Cannon and Chung seem like prime candidates to be cut due to age and salary. That saves $4.8M and $2.9M respectively. Let's take one shot at FA WR. I'll choose Will Fuller at $13.1 mil/year over Allen Robinson at $18M and TY Hilton at $11.6M. That makes the roster look like this:

2021 Roster
The 45 players under contract are:

QB Newton, Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Fuller, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C Andrews

DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty

K Koo
P Bailey
LS Cardona

Cap space: $14.298M. That is probably way lower than the Patriots would want to have at that point, but no areas of absolute need. Perhaps Gilmore traded for other assets? Perhaps they don't sign Andrews or Fuller? Biggest needs going into the draft would be front 7 picks and TE, but I'd also expect a 2nd or 3rd round QB in this case. This plan may also work with a different FA starting QB signed or acquired.

Plan 2: They draft a QB

They bid Newton adieu and draft a QB in the first round, perhaps trading up to get him. They shore up the surrounding cast as much as possible, resigning Thuney ($13.9M according to Spotrac) and Andrews ($10M guess). Cannon and Chung still get cut. In this case let's splurge at the WR position and sign Allen Robinson for $18.1M. They'll pinch pennies by resigning Folk or giving Rohrwasser a chance, but in either case they spend $1M or less.

2021 Roster
The 44 players under contract (plus one assumed future QB pick) are:

QB [1st Round Pick], Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Allen Robinson, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Thuney, Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C Andrews

DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty

K Folk
P Bailey
LS Cardona

Cap space: A healthy $26.898M This option has more limited remaining draft capital to address front seven needs and TE, but has more cap space to take shots in FA or retain players. The Gilmore question remains here as well.
 

ctpatsfan77

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
Key Free Agent Decisions:
Thuney, Newton, JC Jackson, J. White, Guy, Andrews, Butler, J. McCourty, Burkhead, Eleumunor, John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Byrd, Terez Hall. My guess is that the first 6 or 7 names on the list would be signed at a salary high enough to factor in on the comp formula, maybe more? That means the Pats could sign a few free agents before having future comp picks impacted.

JC Jackson is a restricted free agent, meaning the Patriots have three options:
  • Give him a long-term deal
  • Give him a one-year tender at ~$5M. [This does not preclude reaching a long-term deal at any point during the season.]
  • Allow him to sign an offer sheet with another team. If they decline to match, they will receive a first-round pick.
Terez Hall is an ERFA, meaning they can give him a tender at the minimum for a third-year player.

I expect they will keep several players on that list, though.
 

PATSYLICIOUS

Pro Bowl Player
I like cam but if he fetches anything around 20m or more (MUCH rather 30 m ) I would easily let him walk for the comp pick and take a shot on brisset / trubisky / Winston as cheap reclamation projects instead plus a draft pick. I just can’t see someone who will likely finish with more picks than passing tds and a losing record demanding 30m but who knows. If cam can be back at 15 m or less plus incentives I’d probably welcome that and a pick.

I would like to keep Gilmore as it appears we couldn’t get much for him via trade. I believe the savings are around 10m (correct me if I wrong) but then you’re down a #1 cb, would rather have the #1 cb over 10m. Jcj is an Rfa, shouldn’t be hard to keep. Guy and Andrews should be resigned and could be costly. Think we need them big time. J. White or burk, Butler , Eleumunor, Byrd, Terez Hall id keep at the right price .

it’s difficult for me to see bb throwing that much money at a wr. I think ab was the biggest avg salary thrown at a wr unproven in the system and that was a one year risk deal for an incredible talent.

I think despite the cap room, do not be surprised if we are not players in early fa. Bb may sit back and splurge on the bargain bin with all the space. Cap wise it’s setting up a lot like the clear Cap space in 2000 and make your move in 2001 model though a title is unlikely barring striking gold at qb.
 
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DropKickFlutie

In the Starting Line-Up
I wanted to take a look at what the team might look like going forward, at least to 2021. According to Spotrac, the Pats have $67.99 mil in cap space in 2021, which is 4th most in the league. Please correct me if I'm wrong on anything I say as I'm no cap/transactions expert.

2021 Roster
The 43 players under contract are:

QB Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Cannon, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C N/A

DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Chung, Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty

K N/A
P Bailey
LS Cardona

Absolute Needs (literally can't field a roster without it): QB1, K, C, DE
Additional Needs: WR1, TE, DT, FS

Draft picks: 1, 2, 3(comp), 4, 4(comp), 4(comp), 5, 6(Jets), 6(Cowboys), 6

Key Free Agent Decisions:
Thuney, Newton, JC Jackson, J. White, Guy, Andrews, Butler, J. McCourty, Burkhead, Eleumunor, John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Byrd, Terez Hall. My guess is that the first 6 or 7 names on the list would be signed at a salary high enough to factor in on the comp formula, maybe more? That means the Pats could sign a few free agents before having future comp picks impacted.

Plan One: They Like Newton
Let's imagine for a moment that they like Newton enough to sign him to midlevel starter money and the feeling is mutual. Using Spotrac's calculated market value, $31.5 mil/year is good for 19th biggest cap hit in the league sandwiched between Wilson and Cousins (again, not a cap expert). Let's say they re-sign Andrews for $10 mil/year, and sign an average kicker if they determine neither Rohrwasser or Folk is the future. We'll throw $1.5 mil/year at FA Younghoe Koo who's kicking well for Atlanta this year. Those last two numbers are made up, as Spotrac doesn't have estimates for them but they seem to fit market values.

Cannon and Chung seem like prime candidates to be cut due to age and salary. That saves $4.8M and $2.9M respectively. Let's take one shot at FA WR. I'll choose Will Fuller at $13.1 mil/year over Allen Robinson at $18M and TY Hilton at $11.6M. That makes the roster look like this:

2021 Roster
The 45 players under contract are:

QB Newton, Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Fuller, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C Andrews

DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty

K Koo
P Bailey
LS Cardona

Cap space: $14.298M. That is probably way lower than the Patriots would want to have at that point, but no areas of absolute need. Perhaps Gilmore traded for other assets? Perhaps they don't sign Andrews or Fuller? Biggest needs going into the draft would be front 7 picks and TE, but I'd also expect a 2nd or 3rd round QB in this case. This plan may also work with a different FA starting QB signed or acquired.

Plan 2: They draft a QB

They bid Newton adieu and draft a QB in the first round, perhaps trading up to get him. They shore up the surrounding cast as much as possible, resigning Thuney ($13.9M according to Spotrac) and Andrews ($10M guess). Cannon and Chung still get cut. In this case let's splurge at the WR position and sign Allen Robinson for $18.1M. They'll pinch pennies by resigning Folk or giving Rohrwasser a chance, but in either case they spend $1M or less.

2021 Roster
The 44 players under contract (plus one assumed future QB pick) are:

QB [1st Round Pick], Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Allen Robinson, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Thuney, Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C Andrews

DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty

K Folk
P Bailey
LS Cardona

Cap space: A healthy $26.898M This option has more limited remaining draft capital to address front seven needs and TE, but has more cap space to take shots in FA or retain players. The Gilmore question remains here as well.

Love the effort. Nice work.

I'm not sure if they'll keep Andrews for 10m when we seemingly find starting centers routinely out of low draft picks.
They might keep Newton on a short deal and develop a young kid too like Mac Jones out of Alabama.

.
 

patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Other than free agency. We may be able to trade for signed players from teams tight against the cap.

I’m in the might as well keep Cam Camp. Don’t see many options.

I’d like to hit skill positions in free agency. Jonnu Smith and Chris Godwin. Draft defense. Edge and DT. Maybe, trade for a veteran lb and run stuffer.

Praying Hightower returns. Prob cut Cannon and Beau Allen for even more cap space.
 

Lagaffe_07

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Other than free agency. We may be able to trade for signed players from teams tight against the cap.

I’m in the might as well keep Cam Camp. Don’t see many options.

I’d like to hit skill positions in free agency. Jonnu Smith and Chris Godwin. Draft defense. Edge and DT. Maybe, trade for a veteran lb and run stuffer.

Praying Hightower returns. Prob cut Cannon and Beau Allen for even more cap space.

The big problem in my opinion is: I don’t know why good players would want to come to NE.

Where in no position to win in the short term where are not one or two pieces away. We are a all team away. Except huge overpayment I don’t see any elite player wanting to come here.

In my opinion, Hightower will retire as well as D.McCourty, Gilmore will be traded.

In my estimation, we potentially have holes at:

- QB
- WR
- TE
- OL
- DL
- LB
- CB

That is a lot to plug in one offseason. It will be a tough year next year also I think. Maybe we need to keep our cap for 2022.
 

Triumph

Hall of Fame Poster
Great job.

My QB plan -

1. Draft 2021 QB with a high pick. This is the QB of the future hopefully.
2. Bring in another FA QB to win now and mentor the rookie.
3. Stidham has 1 last camp to prove himself.

Cam and Hoyer are down the highway.
 

Lagaffe_07

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
LOL. What has that team ever won!

That was in the past. They had Brady and they were contender every year. Guys would come to NE to have a chance to win a SB.

This team is nowhere close to winning anything in the short term. As much as I would like to see Chris Godwin in a pats jersey, i have absolutely no idea why he would come here in the middle of a rebuild. This is not madden.
 

borg

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
So Plan A is keep our own......and add Will Fuller, kicker Coo, and draft picks

Plan A win projection...........3
 

patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
That was in the past. They had Brady and they were contender every year. Guys would come to NE to have a chance to win a SB.

This team is nowhere close to winning anything in the short term. As much as I would like to see Chris Godwin in a pats jersey, i have absolutely no idea why he would come here in the middle of a rebuild. This is not madden.
Belichick is still here. Players want to get paid....Period. Pay them, and they wii come. Cam is much more thought of by NFL players than fans.
 

Lagaffe_07

Third String But Playing on Special Teams
Belichick is still here. Players want to get paid....Period. Pay them, and they wii come. Cam is much more thought of by NFL players than fans.

Bill has rarely paid players in free agency. I don’t see him starting now.

And I definitely not see him spend 15-20 million on a WR.
 

patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Bill has rarely paid players in free agency. I don’t see him starting now.

And I definitely not see him spend 15-20 million on a WR.
He has when he had the money. Stephon Gilmore says hello. We usually have a good roster and not a lot of cap space. Opposite is true this year.
 

mgteich

PatsFans.com Veteran
PatsFans.com Supporter
He has when he had the money. Stephon Gilmore says hello. We usually have a good roster and not a lot of cap space. Opposite is true this year.
Paying for a db is different than paying for a WR. I would make an exception for the very top 5 WR's, but they won't be available.
 

patsfaninpa

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
Paying for a db is different than paying for a WR. I would make an exception for the very top 5 WR's, but they won't be available.
Considering we don’t know how to draft them, why not?

Role of WR’s is becoming more and more prominent in today’s NFL. Not that I like today’s NFL. It is what it is
 

mgteich

PatsFans.com Veteran
PatsFans.com Supporter
My QB plan -

1. Draft 2021 QB with a high pick. This is the QB of the future hopefully.
2. Bring in another FA QB to win now and mentor the rookie.
3. Stidham has 1 last camp to prove himself.

Cam and Hoyer are down the highway.
I agree that the most likely situation is what you state: a mentor, a draftee, and a long shot.

MENTOR
Cam COULD be the mentor; in fact, I think it likely. HOWEVER, I'm fine with a better veteran, if one is available. I expect that price for a mentor is about $20M a year (plus incentives) for a 3 year contract. This would give stability to the position.

ROOKIE
I expect this to be a quarterback chosen in the first half of the first round, even if it costs the 2022 first. One draft project has 3 QB's in the top 5, and then a 4th at 12, one pick ahead of the patriots.

LONG SHOT
Stidham could come to camp. Belichick might draft a late rounder, or sign one for camp.
 
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