I wanted to take a look at what the team might look like going forward, at least to 2021. According to Spotrac, the Pats have $67.99 mil in cap space in 2021, which is 4th most in the league. Please correct me if I'm wrong on anything I say as I'm no cap/transactions expert.
2021 Roster
The 43 players under contract are:
QB Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Cannon, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C N/A
DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Chung, Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty
K N/A
P Bailey
LS Cardona
Absolute Needs (literally can't field a roster without it): QB1, K, C, DE
Additional Needs: WR1, TE, DT, FS
Draft picks: 1, 2, 3(comp), 4, 4(comp), 4(comp), 5, 6(Jets), 6(Cowboys), 6
Key Free Agent Decisions:
Thuney, Newton, JC Jackson, J. White, Guy, Andrews, Butler, J. McCourty, Burkhead, Eleumunor, John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Byrd, Terez Hall. My guess is that the first 6 or 7 names on the list would be signed at a salary high enough to factor in on the comp formula, maybe more? That means the Pats could sign a few free agents before having future comp picks impacted.
Plan One: They Like Newton
Let's imagine for a moment that they like Newton enough to sign him to midlevel starter money and the feeling is mutual. Using Spotrac's calculated market value, $31.5 mil/year is good for 19th biggest cap hit in the league sandwiched between Wilson and Cousins (again, not a cap expert). Let's say they re-sign Andrews for $10 mil/year, and sign an average kicker if they determine neither Rohrwasser or Folk is the future. We'll throw $1.5 mil/year at FA Younghoe Koo who's kicking well for Atlanta this year. Those last two numbers are made up, as Spotrac doesn't have estimates for them but they seem to fit market values.
Cannon and Chung seem like prime candidates to be cut due to age and salary. That saves $4.8M and $2.9M respectively. Let's take one shot at FA WR. I'll choose Will Fuller at $13.1 mil/year over Allen Robinson at $18M and TY Hilton at $11.6M. That makes the roster look like this:
2021 Roster
The 45 players under contract are:
QB Newton, Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Fuller, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C Andrews
DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty
K Koo
P Bailey
LS Cardona
Cap space: $14.298M. That is probably way lower than the Patriots would want to have at that point, but no areas of absolute need. Perhaps Gilmore traded for other assets? Perhaps they don't sign Andrews or Fuller? Biggest needs going into the draft would be front 7 picks and TE, but I'd also expect a 2nd or 3rd round QB in this case. This plan may also work with a different FA starting QB signed or acquired.
Plan 2: They draft a QB
They bid Newton adieu and draft a QB in the first round, perhaps trading up to get him. They shore up the surrounding cast as much as possible, resigning Thuney ($13.9M according to Spotrac) and Andrews ($10M guess). Cannon and Chung still get cut. In this case let's splurge at the WR position and sign Allen Robinson for $18.1M. They'll pinch pennies by resigning Folk or giving Rohrwasser a chance, but in either case they spend $1M or less.
2021 Roster
The 44 players under contract (plus one assumed future QB pick) are:
QB [1st Round Pick], Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Allen Robinson, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Thuney, Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C Andrews
DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty
K Folk
P Bailey
LS Cardona
Cap space: A healthy $26.898M This option has more limited remaining draft capital to address front seven needs and TE, but has more cap space to take shots in FA or retain players. The Gilmore question remains here as well.
2021 Roster
The 43 players under contract are:
QB Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Cannon, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C N/A
DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Chung, Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty
K N/A
P Bailey
LS Cardona
Absolute Needs (literally can't field a roster without it): QB1, K, C, DE
Additional Needs: WR1, TE, DT, FS
Draft picks: 1, 2, 3(comp), 4, 4(comp), 4(comp), 5, 6(Jets), 6(Cowboys), 6
Key Free Agent Decisions:
Thuney, Newton, JC Jackson, J. White, Guy, Andrews, Butler, J. McCourty, Burkhead, Eleumunor, John Simon, Deatrich Wise, Byrd, Terez Hall. My guess is that the first 6 or 7 names on the list would be signed at a salary high enough to factor in on the comp formula, maybe more? That means the Pats could sign a few free agents before having future comp picks impacted.
Plan One: They Like Newton
Let's imagine for a moment that they like Newton enough to sign him to midlevel starter money and the feeling is mutual. Using Spotrac's calculated market value, $31.5 mil/year is good for 19th biggest cap hit in the league sandwiched between Wilson and Cousins (again, not a cap expert). Let's say they re-sign Andrews for $10 mil/year, and sign an average kicker if they determine neither Rohrwasser or Folk is the future. We'll throw $1.5 mil/year at FA Younghoe Koo who's kicking well for Atlanta this year. Those last two numbers are made up, as Spotrac doesn't have estimates for them but they seem to fit market values.
Cannon and Chung seem like prime candidates to be cut due to age and salary. That saves $4.8M and $2.9M respectively. Let's take one shot at FA WR. I'll choose Will Fuller at $13.1 mil/year over Allen Robinson at $18M and TY Hilton at $11.6M. That makes the roster look like this:
2021 Roster
The 45 players under contract are:
QB Newton, Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Fuller, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C Andrews
DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty
K Koo
P Bailey
LS Cardona
Cap space: $14.298M. That is probably way lower than the Patriots would want to have at that point, but no areas of absolute need. Perhaps Gilmore traded for other assets? Perhaps they don't sign Andrews or Fuller? Biggest needs going into the draft would be front 7 picks and TE, but I'd also expect a 2nd or 3rd round QB in this case. This plan may also work with a different FA starting QB signed or acquired.
Plan 2: They draft a QB
They bid Newton adieu and draft a QB in the first round, perhaps trading up to get him. They shore up the surrounding cast as much as possible, resigning Thuney ($13.9M according to Spotrac) and Andrews ($10M guess). Cannon and Chung still get cut. In this case let's splurge at the WR position and sign Allen Robinson for $18.1M. They'll pinch pennies by resigning Folk or giving Rohrwasser a chance, but in either case they spend $1M or less.
2021 Roster
The 44 players under contract (plus one assumed future QB pick) are:
QB [1st Round Pick], Stidham
RB Harris, Michel, Bolden
FB Vitale
WR Allen Robinson, Meyers, Edelman, Harry, Olszewski, Marqise Lee, Slater,
TE Lacosse, Izzo, Asiasi, Keene
T Wynn, Herron, Cajuste, Toran, Cunningham
G Thuney, Mason, Onwenu, Froholdt
C Andrews
DT Beau Allen, Cowart, Isaiah Mack, Michael Barnett
DE Winovich
LB Hightower, Uche, Bentley, Brandon King
CB Gilmore, Jonathan Jones, Joejuan Willians
SS Dugger, Phillips
FS D. McCourty
K Folk
P Bailey
LS Cardona
Cap space: A healthy $26.898M This option has more limited remaining draft capital to address front seven needs and TE, but has more cap space to take shots in FA or retain players. The Gilmore question remains here as well.
