I would say if they play a completely mistake free game and have some sucess moving the ball maybe they hang in there and lose 23-17 or something like that. Now if Bortles makes any mistakes or the Pats generate any turnovers it could get ugly. I'm struggling to see how the Jags move the ball. The Pats run D has been stout and their pass rush is also impressive and improving.
I'm impressed too. "And improving" - if we take the Tennessee game as a benchmark - might be a little off, semantically speaking. I don't expect equal production against Jax. That said, if the Pats get half that pass-rush production, it could be a very ugly game. At the same time, if they get to Brady 10 times - as they did twice in 17, to ahem other QBs - it could be ugly another way.
I've sworn off listing players I like and their abilities or details of scheme week to week, and declaring what will happen Sunday. (Although I still unsuccessfully participate in the "predict the score" thread). That doesn't mean you shouldn't, I'm just bad at it.
But I saw somebody earlier saying Pittsburgh's D is "better than that." Or maybe they were talking about Jax's D. Who knows. Well, no they weren't. The game showed exactly how they played that game.
It's useless to say a team is good or bad at X, Y, or Z, then "curve-fitting" actual experience that matters to one's description, right?
This game coming up, we're exactly as good as we are in this game coming up. We're not "better than" a non-optimal outcome. If we put up 40 it's not a "fluke."
What we do in the game is exactly the correct answer for that specific game.
But that doesn't let us talk about anything between now and then.
Let me come down off my philosophical high horse, and ask, if any stat line is an outlier this weekend, according to your view of the Pats/Jaguars characteristics (probably similar to mine)... will you really be surprised?
For example, the run D has been stout and I
love - to date - what Harrison adds on the edge. Okay. But if Jax has a 100 yard rusher will you say "OMG who saw that coming?" I wouldn't. If we get
gouged for 150... big let-down, given expectations, but is that really an impossible outcome? If Bortles throws 3 TDs - yes, against our vaunted secondary (lately, vaunted for good reason) - is that really an unbelievable outlier? And if Brady throws for 1 TD, that's unusual, but would you really say "OMG that has never happened before..."
And bear in mind, in saying this, TFB showed vs. Tenn. he's still the best in the game. I'm not riding the recent statistically average stretch. I'm just saying, I can imagine all sorts of paths to an uncharacteristic outcome, and I hope that the Pats are doing the work to make them not happen. They tend to be good at that.
That's a long long way to say, that's why they play the games.
goddammit is it next week yet?!?!?!?!?!?